How Many Slams Will Nadal Finish With?

[NADAL2005RG]

I think Nadal has plenty more RG titles left in him, because I think after 2016 he will focus on clay and avoid hardcourts. I think he's prioritizing hardcourts now with an eye on the Rio Olympics (his main goal), assuming Rio is on hardcourts. He will continue to develop his hardcourt game and seek to maintain his hardcourt prime until 2016. Beyond that, I forecast an intense focus on clay and grass and an exclusion of hardcourt events (he can simply take a long break after Wimbledon each year just as he did in 2012).

The only year Nadal won the AO was 2009, and then had his worst Roland Garros ever and he skipped Wimbledon. I think Soderling would have beaten Nadal at 2009 Roland Garros regardless of physical health, because Soderling played lights-out unplayable tennis, but certainly the skipping of Wimbledon was injury-induced to an extent. He then made the AO final in 2012, and won Roland Garros but then skipped 7 months trying to get his knees right.

The AO is a hardcourt that has longer rallies than the US Open. A hardcourt with long rallies is a recipe for disaster. I hope Nadal plays and wins the AO (just to get the Double Career Grand Slam), but I accept that by playing the AO (and particularly if there is a marathon or 2) he will not be helping his chances at Roland Garros, physically. I'm not saying playing the AO will cost him RG. Not at all. But he will be sharper at RG (and Wimbledon) if he doesn't have a long and arduous AO. Its well worth the risk however, to get that Double Career Grand Slam.

 

[rafanoy1992]

The safest bet is 15 slam titles for Nadal.

But, overall I would say 17 slam titles tying with Federer. I think he will win at least 2 more French Opens, 1 more hard court slam (hopefully it is the Australian Open so he could have two career slams), and probably 1 more Wimbledon title.

 

[Garro]

It's pretty safe to give Rafa 1-3 more French Opens I think. As for hard courts, he's been amazing the past eight months, but prior to this year he hadn't won a hart court title since Tokyo 2010. Is this year a new standard for Rafa or an aberration? I still give him another hard court slam and 1-2 more Wimbledons and say he ends with 17.

 

[Kieran]

I think 17 would be the extremity of it for me, because firstly, he's missed too much time with injuries over the years and is unreliable for the future in this regard, secondly, he's always had a huge rival and I expect Nole and Murray to raise the stakes again next year, and thirdly, 4 is a lot to expect, even if we say he's favourite for every FO he enters...

 

[NADAL2005RG]

It would be kind of cool if Murray develops his clay game and becomes a rival for Nadal there. Djokovic and Federer have had enough chances. I can't see it happening for them. Djokovic thought he had Nadal cornered, but he didn't bank on Nadal unleashing 22 winners in the 5th set. I think that 5th set has increased Nadal's mental edge to an all-time high. I thought Nadal would be rusty enough this year for Djokovic to maybe win Roland Garros (especially after deriving confidence from Monte Carlo), but no. Time to find a new rival, and with a couple more years of adapting Murray might have the ideal game to succeed on clay. It is a thinking man's surface, with power playing less of a role. If not Murray, then it could be an extremely long wait. Plus we have to consider how Nadal will respond if he his dethroned again. I suspect he'll seek to get it back, like with Soderling (Nadal beat Soderling at 2010 RG and 2011 RG, without dropping a set).

Either way, its great fun watching someone go for such an astronomical and (already) unprecedented domination of a slam event. And when Nadal is pushed, its refreshing, because we get to see all his weapons in full flight. I know Nadal has become an expert at the hardcourts of late, and should he successfully defend the US Open next year he may go all out in an attempt to tie the US Open record of 5 US Open titles. But I suspect nothing would be more devastating than losing the Roland Garros title, so I hope RG remains top priority. After age 30, I hope he takes a few months off after Wimbledon each year.

 

[Srini]

16 or 17. Will be surprised if he another 5 and gets to #18. But champions always surprise, so its possible.

 

[NADAL2005RG]

I'm probably in the 1% of people whom Nadal has never made a fool out of.

 

[brokenshoelace]

I'm probably in the 1% of people whom Nadal has never made a fool out of.

Yup. You usually take care of that yourself.

 

[NADAL2005RG]

Just saying, even in the years when Nadal has shocked and surprised the tennis world, I foresaw it all (the wins and the losses).

 

[Kieran]

Just saying, even in the years when Nadal has shocked and surprised the tennis world, I foresaw it all (the wins and the losses).

That's interesting. To foresee the losses, you must have foreseen the draws too. Who gets del Potro in their half in Oz? Rafa or Nole?

 

[NADAL2005RG]

Well, I don't think it will make a difference to Nadal where Del Potro is at the AO. But nah, I never foresaw the specifics like draws or opponents. Anyway, enough about me. Tennis is bigger than me.

 

[Front242]

Just saying, even in the years when Nadal has shocked and surprised the tennis world, I foresaw it all (the wins and the losses).

I hope you placed a few bets in that case if you're able to see the future. You should/could be rich by now.

 

[NADAL2005RG]

BTW I'm talking about the slams. I don't have a sense of who will win the non-slams. They aren't powerful enough to give me a gut feeling.

Yeah but I don't have a sports betting account. And I don't need the money. Anyway, enough about me. I'm just passing through. I'm not the main attraction.

 

[DarthFed]

DP and Murray could be 3 and 4 in some order going into AO. In that case Rafa and Djokovic will still be hoping to see DP in their half. But then there is the real possibility that DP is not top 4 and someone could get DP in the QF and Murray in the semi. Brutal!

 

[Denis]

DP and Murray could be 3 and 4 in some order going into AO. In that case Rafa and Djokovic will still be hoping to see DP in their half. But then there is the real possibility that DP is not top 4 and someone could get DP in the QF and Murray in the semi. Brutal!

And Nadal/Djokovic in the final to finish it off. Maybe Federer in the 4th round too. Janowicz in the third and Monfils in the second round. Hewitt with home advantage in the first.

I can see it very clearly.

 

[Front242]

BTW I'm talking about the slams. I don't have a sense of who will win the non-slams. They aren't powerful enough to give me a gut feeling.

Yeah but I don't have a sports betting account. And I don't need the money. Anyway, enough about me. I'm just passing through. I'm not the main attraction.

It's probably just as well to be honest as it likely saved you blowing your life savings. I doubt somehow you guessed these losses correctly before the matches had started: Tsonga AO 2008, Soderling RG 2009, Ferrer AO 2010, Rosol Wimbledon 2012, Darcis Wimbledon 2013. Now if you did guess those right and I very much doubt it, you definitely should open a betting account as you'd be absolutely minted if you had any decent amount of cash down. But again, I'm sure you picked Nadal to win every one of those matches so it doesn't matter.

 

[NADAL2005RG]

Despite the intensity of Nadjokovic, the hype surrounding Naderer at the slams in particular is (still) off the hook, of course because they are the 2 most popular players in the world (and I think the closer to retirement Federer gets, the more people will want to see Naderer). I know people will say "but Nadjokovic is the better spectacle because its a closer rivalry".... however at the slam level the rivalries are similar. Nadal leads Federer 8-2, and Nadal has won the last 5 meetings. Nadal leads Djokovic 8-3 and Nadal has won the last 3 meetings. So what is best for tennis (and drawing interest from non-tennis fans), Naderer.....or Nadjokovic? Well, we can have both. I hope Naderer meet at the AO and Nadjokovic too. But, Nadurray haven't met for a couple of years. Maybe that would be better for tennis.

 

[NADAL2005RG]

It's probably just as well to be honest as it likely saved you blowing your life savings. I doubt somehow you guessed these losses correctly before the matches had started: Tsonga AO 2008, Soderling RG 2009, Ferrer AO 2010, Rosol Wimbledon 2012, Darcis Wimbledon 2013. Now if you did guess those right and I very much doubt it, you definitely should open a betting account as you'd be absolutely minted if you had any decent amount of cash down. But again, I'm sure you picked Nadal to win every one of those matches so it doesn't matter.

I don't predict individual matches, just whether or not Nadal will win the slam event. I don't know which round Nadal will lose in, but I have a gut feeling for which slam events he's going to win. And I'm not saying that my gut feeling will always be correct, just that it has been so far. I expect I'll be wrong eventually.
I didn't think Nadal would win AO 2008.
I didn't think Nadal would win RG 2009.
I didn't think Nadal would win AO 2010 (btw you listed that as Ferrer, but the opponent was Murray in AO 2010. Ferrer was AO 2011, and I didn't think Nadal would win AO 2011 either).
I didn't think Nadal would win Wimbledon 2012.
I didn't think Nadal would win Wimbledon 2013.

 

[Denis]

It's probably just as well to be honest as it likely saved you blowing your life savings. I doubt somehow you guessed these losses correctly before the matches had started: Tsonga AO 2008, Soderling RG 2009, Ferrer AO 2010, Rosol Wimbledon 2012, Darcis Wimbledon 2013. Now if you did guess those right and I very much doubt it, you definitely should open a betting account as you'd be absolutely minted if you had any decent amount of cash down. But again, I'm sure you picked Nadal to win every one of those matches so it doesn't matter.

I don't predict individual matches, just whether or not Nadal will win the slam event. I don't know which round Nadal will lose in, but I have a gut feeling for which slam events he's going to win. And I'm not saying that my gut feeling will always be correct, just that it has been so far. I expect I'll be wrong eventually.
I didn't think Nadal would win AO 2008.
I didn't think Nadal would win RG 2009.
I didn't think Nadal would win AO 2010 (btw you listed that as Ferrer, but the opponent was Murray in AO 2010. Ferrer was AO 2011, and I didn't think Nadal would win AO 2011 either).
I didn't think Nadal would win Wimbledon 2012.
I didn't think Nadal would win Wimbledon 2013.

Ok Nostradamus, can you predict us which slams Nadal will win exactly until his very last slam?

 

[brokenshoelace]

I didn't think Nadal would win RG 2009.

LOL sure you didn't.