How Many Slams Will Nadal Finish With?

[El Dude]

NADAL2005RG has predicted 18-22, but I'd like to hear from everyone else. How many do you think he finishes with?

Polls are fun!

 

[El Dude]

I voted for 17, although after thinking it through a bit I maybe should have vote for 18-19. I figure that he has 2-3 years left of elite form, and then maybe a year or two of being very good but unlikely to win a Slam, except for perhaps Roland Garros.

If he can remain healthy, he could get to 20; something like this:

2014 (27-28): 2 Slams...to 15
2015-16 (28-30): 3 Slams...to 18
2017-18 (30-32): 2 Slams...to 20

I suppose my guess would be 3 more French Opens and 2 more other Slams, but with Rafa who knows. He could win all four next year, or he could get injured and struggle and not win any, finally being deposed of at Roland Garros by a healthier Novak Djokovic.

 

[Riotbeard]

I think 16 or 17. I voted 17. I don't see him getting five more.

 

[Kieran]

I think 15-17. It depends on his health and whether he catches another Djoker-storm, either by Nole himself or Murray or somebody else...

 

[Front242]

17 just to raise big lengthy controversial debates on who is/was (when they're both finished) better between him and guess who.

 

[NADAL2005RG]

If this is the official prediction thread, I should post something about my prediction. Because 2013 is Nadal's best year ever on hardcourts, his hardcourt prime, it means in 2014/2015/2016 he is more likely than ever to cash-in on the fact that there are 2 hardcourt slam events per year. 2016 may seem too far off to predict, but last year Nadal has said Rio 2016 is his main goal. So if that is on hardcourts (rumored to be), I think Nadal will focus on sharpening/developing his hardcourt game between now and 2016.

His main rival is an AO specialist, yet they went 6 hours in 2012 at the AO, so Nadal must like his chances there. And the US Open....won it twice and only broken 4 and 5 times, enough said. Add Roland Garros to the mix, and he has a legit shot at 3 slam titles in 2014 (but for the sake of conservatism, I'll say 2-3 slam titles in 2014). On clay, if there is no sign yet of a young clay challenger, there is a possibility that Roland Garros will become even easier to win (if Djokovic declines at all and nobody comes to fill his shoes and challenge Nadal) even if Nadal declines a bit on clay. By the way, I think Nadal will be better on clay in 2014 than he was in 2013, because Nadal appeared low on confidence early in his comeback (and it did not help that he lost Monte Carlo) and only went into attack mode in the 5th set of RG semi (22 winners in the set) in the do or die situation.

Also, looking a few years ahead, consider the fact that if Nadal loses at Roland Garros, he will become more motivated than ever to win it, and reclaim the title. I cannot believe Nadal would give up just because he loses in a final or semi of Roland Garros. Also, with Wimbledon being scheduled later than usual, from 2015 onwards, there is a chance he could make a run there (but I have not included that in my estimation - it would be a mere bonus). Finally, let me add that it is a given that in order to manage his knee issues there will be some months he takes off as he gets older (and he may focus entirely on clay after 2016). I've factored all that in. 18-22 slam titles.

 

[Front242]

there is a possibility that Roland Garros will become even easier to win (if Djokovic declines at all and nobody comes to fill his shoes and challenge Nadal) even if Nadal declines a bit on clay. By the way, I think Nadal will be better on clay in 2014 than he was in 2013, because Nadal appeared low on confidence early in his comeback (and it did not help that he lost Monte Carlo) and only went into attack mode in the 5th set of RG semi (22 winners in the set) in the do or die situation.

You're conveniently not addressing the possibility that Djokovic won't decline and may in fact improve on clay which certainly throws a spanner in the works if Nadal is mostly aiming to increase his slam count with clay slams. I'll go so far as to say if he stays healthy Del Potro has a shot on clay. He played great in 2009 and right now is the first time in a long time that both his wrists have (according to him at least) been ok. He certainly showed signs of them being in good nick today anyway.

 

[NADAL2005RG]

Djokovic was worse on clay in 2013 than he was in 2012/2011. So isn't on the rise. I declared early in 2013 that this was Djokovic's best chance at winning Roland Garros, because Nadal would be rusty and low on confidence. And I was saying that even before Djokovic won Monte Carlo. The fact Djokovic could not take advantage of Nadal this year at Roland Garros, is a shocker and a hugely missed opportunity. Its going to be way more difficult for Djokovic next year, because the sharpness you saw from Nadal at this year's US summer.....Nadal will be even better on clay next year.

I give Del Potro absolutely no chance on clay vs Nadal. I've seen Del Potro play plenty, and his movement is not even close to the level required to beat Nadal on clay. Even in 2009, when Del Potro was firing on all cylinders, he couldn't beat Federer at Roland Garros (despite Federer playing a very messy tournament). I don't consider Del Potro a challenger to Nadal's Roland Garros throne, at all. I also don't consider Murray a challenger, but I think Murray will come closer than Del Potro. But you are welcome to have full confidence in Del Potro, no problem.

 

[Front242]

Djokovic was worse on clay in 2013 than he was in 2012/2011. So isn't on the rise. I declared early in 2013 that this was Djokovic's best chance at winning Roland Garros, because Nadal would be rusty and low on confidence. And I was saying that even before Djokovic won Monte Carlo. The fact Djokovic could not take advantage of Nadal this year at Roland Garros, is a shocker and a hugely missed opportunity. Its going to be way more difficult for Djokovic next year, because the sharpness you saw from Nadal at this year's US summer.....Nadal will be even better on clay next year.

I give Del Potro absolutely no chance on clay vs Nadal. I've seen Del Potro play plenty, and his movement is not even close to the level required to beat Nadal on clay. Even in 2009, when Del Potro was firing on all cylinders, he couldn't beat Federer at Roland Garros (despite Federer playing a very messy tournament). I don't consider Del Potro a challenger to Nadal's Roland Garros throne, at all. I also don't consider Murray a challenger, but I think Murray will come closer than Del Potro. But you are welcome to have full confidence in Del Potro, no problem.

Djokovic beats Nadal and Del Potro beats Djokovic is more the scenario I had in mind here. It's just giving a possible not too far fetched scenario for Nadal not winning every RG in sight. I don't think Murray will ever win RG so I didn't include him as a threat there. Yes, he reached the semis before but I don't think he'll win the title. Regarding the sharpness from Nadal this summer, you realize you're talking about a tournament almost 1 year away?! Anything can happen between now and then. Absolutely anything. That's why it's way too early and naive to predict results for the future based on what's happening now. In fact, right now Nadal has lost back to back finals and two of the other top contenders are gaining confidence. The momentum is changing constantly in tennis.

 

[Mog]

I voted for 14-16.
He could have 1-2 RGs.
Delpo, Nole , Murray and few others are the factors hence onwards and could stop him at other slams.
Oh, But I forgot that Nadal never loses when (1) he is not injured,Knees? (2) not tired so he could win 24+ at least, No? ??

 

[El Dude]

Maybe Soderling will make a comeback and vanquish Rafa at Roland Garros.

I know: lightning doesn't strike twice in the same spot.

That said, it will be interesting to see how long Rafa can hold the crown at Roland Garros, and who will beat him first.

 

[huntingyou]

Maybe Soderling will make a comeback and vanquish Rafa at Roland Garros.

I know: lightning doesn't strike twice in the same spot.

That said, it will be interesting to see how long Rafa can hold the crown at Roland Garros, and who will beat him first.

worst case scenario: 13

realistic case under sub-par performance: 15

17 it's possible but seeing his scheduling this fall season so far, meh.....I'll give him 15

I would love another SW19, if he could take the load off during clay season or get's defeated early at RG.....then I believe he could do it.

 

[tented]

17 just to raise big lengthy controversial debates on who is/was (when they're both finished) better between him and guess who.

I was thinking the same: like Navratilova and Evert tied at 18. And it is quite possible for this to end in a tie, too, so it's not unrealistic to vote 17. But keep in mind this also means no more for Federer.

 

[tented]

Maybe Soderling will make a comeback and vanquish Rafa at Roland Garros.

I know: lightning doesn't strike twice in the same spot.

That said, it will be interesting to see how long Rafa can hold the crown at Roland Garros, and who will beat him first.

Even as a huge Rafa fan, I have to say I'm also curious who this will be. It's inevitable, short of Rafa pulling a Borg and walking away in the near future. That won't happen, however, which means someone will beat him at RG.

It won't be Soderling. I suspect his "comeback" will be more of a glimpse-back. It's either going to be Djokovic or player-to-be-determined -- someone who's currently a junior, for example.

 

[Riotbeard]

Maybe Soderling will make a comeback and vanquish Rafa at Roland Garros.

I know: lightning doesn't strike twice in the same spot.

That said, it will be interesting to see how long Rafa can hold the crown at Roland Garros, and who will beat him first.

Even as a huge Rafa fan, I have to say I'm also curious who this will be. It's inevitable, short of Rafa pulling a Borg and walking away in the near future. That won't happen, however, which means someone will beat him at RG.

It won't be Soderling. I suspect his "comeback" will be more of a glimpse-back. It's either going to be Djokovic or player-to-be-determined -- someone who's currently a junior, for example.

If Delpo remains uninjured the next couple of years, I could see a 27 year old Delpo in the peak of his career, beating a 29 year old nadal in the beginning of his downward arc at RG.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

There are so many variables in play here that it makes it so hard to even make an educated guess. Like, will Rafa have the same hard court success he did this year ever again? Because right before Rafa's comeback this year, consensus was (for the most part) Rafa was not winning any more hard court slams with Nole and Andy out there, and with those wonky knees. And his vulnerability at the early rounds of Wimbledon was also an issue. So that left him with a couple more RGs , and that was that. If one still went by that , I would say he will 2 more RGs and call it a career at 15 slams.

However, I am thinking he will have 1 more hard court slam, and 1 more Wimby in addition to the 2 more RGs. So , 4 more and he will be at 17. And it is based on....guesswork right everyone else.

 

[NADAL2005RG]

Maybe Soderling will make a comeback and vanquish Rafa at Roland Garros.

I know: lightning doesn't strike twice in the same spot.

That said, it will be interesting to see how long Rafa can hold the crown at Roland Garros, and who will beat him first.

I remember the 2010 Roland Garros final, probably the only match I've felt nervous during every point of, even though it was a comfortable straight sets victory. And when they met again in 2011 Roland Garros, I was also nervous. Straight sets again, but its a great moment when Nadal and Soderling meet at Roland Garros. No matter how easily Nadal wins each time, the memory of 2009 is fresh, so every meeting (at Roland Garros) is interesting.

 

[Moxie]

Maybe Soderling will make a comeback and vanquish Rafa at Roland Garros.

I know: lightning doesn't strike twice in the same spot.

That said, it will be interesting to see how long Rafa can hold the crown at Roland Garros, and who will beat him first.

Even as a huge Rafa fan, I have to say I'm also curious who this will be. It's inevitable, short of Rafa pulling a Borg and walking away in the near future. That won't happen, however, which means someone will beat him at RG.

It won't be Soderling. I suspect his "comeback" will be more of a glimpse-back. It's either going to be Djokovic or player-to-be-determined -- someone who's currently a junior, for example.

This is my curiosity: who takes Rafa next at RG? Djokovic wants it, for sure, but his chances could be getting fewer, rather than greater. Del Potro could be in with a shot, if he's really fully back, but I don't like him in best of 5 v. Nadal at RG. I'm inclined to think it will be the teenager to be named later. If that holds, count goes up. On the one hand, it seems impossible that Rafa could win yet another RG title. On the other hand, who's really better than he is there?

As to the total # of Slams? It's tough. At this point, I think he'll beat Pete and get 15+. Next 12 months will tell a lot. I have said that I favor Novak to make the final at AO over Nadal making it, but if they should meet, Rafa's chances of winning it go up. If he wins AO, he'll likely win the FO again, then I would say tying Roger is possible.

But...if Rafa even wins a Slam next year he'll break his own record of being the only guy to do it in 10 consecutive years. Can he do it? And if he wins RG again, that's an outrageous 9 Slams at one tournament. I think he'll probably make 16, but if he has a good year next year, he'll probably equal or pass Roger.

 

[NADAL2005RG]

There are so many variables in play here that it makes it so hard to even make an educated guess. Like, will Rafa have the same hard court success he did this year ever again? Because right before Rafa's comeback this year, consensus was (for the most part) Rafa was not winning any more hard court slams with Nole and Andy out there, and with those wonky knees.

Although we should never trust a consensus, because majority of people are regularly wrong when forecasting sport. And anyone who wrote Nadal off on hardcourts, should have been woken up by Indian Wells 2013. And before 2013, what happened the last time Nadal and Djokovic met on a hardcourt? 6 hours at the AO. So it was logical to believe he would again be right in Djokovic's face once he shook off the rust. And even in February 2013, it appeared likely he would regain good health-
http://www.nadalnews.com/2013/02/07/lequipe-interview-no-panic/#.UjUzcn9FYbA

I’m not afraid because I know in what state my knee is in. Since three weeks, all the tests I have undergone have shown perfect results. The truth is that my left knee is in fantastic shape compared with the other one (laughs). I know now that if I run, I won’t risk torn tendons. That’s “importantissime”. The doctors have promised me that. So, it’s alright, no anxiety. Even if the tendon still gives me pain…

Plus I think the 7 month break made Nadal more committed than ever to playing aggressively on hardcourts. In 2011 he definitely did not take an aggressive enough attitude on hardcourts. He was hitting shorter into the court, and not using his backhand to end points enough. 2013, has been more like what he did in the 2010 US Open (not in terms of the serve, but in terms of keeping the ball deep). And this change in attitude was accentuated at 2013 Indian Wells because Nadal was physically still very stiff and was forced to end points quicker (with the backhand, more than ever).

 

[Moxie]

I think that's true, Nadal2005RG. When Rafa's confidence is low, he hits the ball short into the mid-court. I do believe he came back with commitment to more aggression. I'm concerned about his first serve percentage going down, right now. It wasn't great in Beijing. It was better in Shanghai up until yesterday v. Del Potro. I don't think he could have beaten JM today, given Del Potro's level, but if he'd served better, he might have gone 3, which might have sneaked it out. What ever the rest of the season holds, he's got to get the first serve percentage up.