How many more slams for Rafa?

[lacatch]

Given Rafa's form and the competitive landscape, what's your prediction?

 

[lacatch]

Maybe someone can help me with the formatting--my first attempt at a poll . Thanks!

 

[brokenshoelace]

Anywhere between zero and two.

 

[Kirijax]

Anywhere between zero and two.

Come on Shoelace! Be bold!

 

[TsarMatt]

20.

Anything less, he is an underachieving mug.

 

[Kieran]

With Rafa, the answer to this question always begins with the words "providing he can stay fit..."

This time last year my answer would have been different, but I fear the injury and illness and operation last year were the final straw, he hasn't come back as himself at all, and though he's working hard and should get near the top again, he's got a long way to go. I go with Broken, a maximum of two slams, and only more than this if he tears through everything like its 2013 again, but that's asking a lot because he's ageing too...

 

[Puppet Master]

Possible scenarios: 1. He wins only a few 250 titles until the end of his career, falling as low as 20-30 in the rankings.
2. He has a year similar to 2013 and breaks down once again. He could get two slams in the process, or maybe 3, but that is just way too much to ask.
As much as I hate to say it, I think one of these will play out in the following year. This time in 2016 he will be 30, and things aren't looking too good right now.

 

[Federberg]

I'm intrigued to see how he performs against his big rivals going forward. The way both Murray and Djokovic handled him (and that was when they still must have had a bit of fear) was intriguing, and surely worrying to him.

So far this year he's been beaten twice by Dolgo, Almagro and Fognini. This reminds me of 2008 (?) when Roger lost a couple of times to Canas. All of a sudden, guys who he used to handle with ease are taking it to him. This doesn't mean he can't beat them anymore, but it must give comfort to the field. The Rafa premium that gave him games or even sets before he even got to the court has definitely been damaged. Tough to tell how much at the moment. Wimbledon will be another pointer.

Definitely Monfils must shaking his head regarding his recent loss, and thinking he should have made a better fist of that match

 

[rahulpawar]

My optimism and fan fanatism says three or more ...I think however the most probable guess would be 2.

 

[El Dude]

Who would have thought that after his 14th at Roland Garros last year we'd be talking no more Slams for Rafa. At the time I remember wondering whether he'd tie or surpass Roger, now it looks like there's little chance that he'll catch him.

But Rafa is so hard to predict. Given his age, and more so his "use age" which is greater than his 29 years, I wouldn't expect a return to his best form, at least not for more than a tournament or two. But if we were going to see that we would have seen it on clay. I suppose a surge next year is possible.

What is most worrisome is what seems to be a rather blase attitude. Maybe this is just a sign of maturity and that Rafa realizes that there's more to life than tennis, that he's had one of the greatest careers in tennis history. But he seems rather accepting of his current situation and modest about his goals, at least outwardly.

Right now it seems nearly impossible that he'd win another Slam. But I'm voting for two, because we've seen him rise before and I think if he wins one more, he can win another.

On a completely different note, did people know that there's an asteroid named after Rafa?

 

[Federberg]

^I've never really believed the "humble" comments from Rafa Dude. So now, I see no reason to really believe that he actually thinks he's done. This guy is an all time great champion. I'm not ready to say that he's done. 3 more might be tough to achieve, but on any given Sunday he has a punchers chance (a super-heavyweight puncher to boot) of getting more big W's

 

[shawnbm]

I was going to put one (Paris), but then caught myself as I usually say you should never underestimate the Spanish Bull. So, I gave him two more, likely both in Paris. Imagine if he retires with 11 French Open victories!!!!

 

[brokenshoelace]

What is most worrisome is what seems to be a rather blase attitude. Maybe this is just a sign of maturity and that Rafa realizes that there's more to life than tennis, that he's had one of the greatest careers in tennis history. But he seems rather accepting of his current situation and modest about his goals, at least outwardly.

This literally applies to every phase of his career.

 

[Riotbeard]

I think he puts it together at one more slam, but never returns to a consistent competitor with the top dogs. So I think he will sampras it at 15 total slams.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

There are just two general theories about Rafa.

1. When the decline comes it will be drastic and a spiraling to the end fast, due to excessive wear and tear of the body.

2. Rafa is a champion and champions find a way to get out of tough situations and reassert themselves.

It will be interesting to see which one is the case.

I believe that he will not win a GS this year. However, I believe he will one at least one more and a maximum of two in his career. This seems to be the opinion of many too.

After this year (assuming he does not win one this year) , if he goes through another slamless year (not necessarily consecutive), I am willing to write him off from that point. Until then, I belong to the second line of thought described above.

In other words, I am saying Rafa will have one more resurgence and no more beyond that.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

I noticed I went for 17 majors last year..

seemed a decent bet at the time, seems over optimistic now though.

 

[brokenshoelace]

There are just two general theories about Rafa.

1. When the decline comes it will be drastic and a spiraling to the end fast, due to excessive wear and tear of the body.

2. Rafa is a champion and champions find a way to get out of tough situations and reassert themselves.

It will be interesting to see which one is the case.

I believe that he will not win a GS this year. However, I believe he will one at least one more and a maximum of two in his career. This seems to be the opinion of many too.

After this year (assuming he does not win one this year) , if he goes through another slamless year (not necessarily consecutive), I am willing to write him off from that point. Until then, I belong to the second line of thought described above.

In other words, I am saying Rafa will have one more resurgence and no more beyond that.

Agreed.

That's typically what happens after a player has that serious decline. There's that gradual decline where they can still win slams and are super competitive, just not quite as good as they once were (see Federer post 2007, Nadal himself post 2010), and that severe decline where they start having abysmal results by their standards (see Federer post 2012 and Nadal post FO 2014). I see some similarities, where both have had resurgence years following the gradual decline (Federer in 2009 and 2012, and Nadal in 2013), but the question is, can Nadal right the ship the way Roger did to where even though he's not quite as consistent as he once was, he can still be competitive and has a legit shot at winning most majors, kinda like Federer did last year after his terrible 2013. Yes, Roger hasn't won a slam since Wimbledon 2012, but I feel if Nadal can do what Federer did last year, he'll actually win one. On the flip-side, due to injuries and wear and tear, I feel he's more likely than Roger to just never be able to recover, even though I think he will, but not this year.

Obviously the similarities are not quite foolproof, but it's a pattern seen in many champions (you can throw in Sampras too).

 

[Moxie]

Rafa is awfully hard to gauge right now. He played well in Stuttgart, served well, and looked confident. Then he played the always-tricky Dog, who was playing very well, for sure, but Rafa gave up the advantage in the 3rd, and that seemed like a failure of confidence, again. Everyone understands that he's older than 29 in "tennis years," regardless of playing style and injuries. He was the last teenager to win a Slam on the men's side, and hit the beginning of his "peak" in 2008, at barely 22 when he won Wimbledon. That was 7 years ago. If his problem is more head/confidence than body/form, I think it's something he can comeback from and still have a resurgence, for however long that lasts. The safest bet is that he gets 1-2 more. Betting on "zero" is rather hoping this is really the decline, IMO, which is a bit puny and sad. Even his worst detractors are having a hard time presuming against one last solid act to his career. So as a shameless fan...if he wins one again this year, I'll go 3-4. If he goes Slamless this year, I'll say 2-3. Why not?

 

[El Dude]

Very optimistic, Moxie. How about this:

0 Pessimistic
1 Realistic
2 Optimistic
3 Wildly optimistic
4 Insane

 

[Kirijax]

Understood, but in my case, 0 means optimistic.