How Many Grand Slam Titles Will Djokovic End His Career With?

[Front242]

^ Yeah the impact weather has at RG in particular is pretty sizeable and Nadal's been lucky a lot more than the others he's played in recent years to have had sunny, hot finals. Also, if he's to be beaten it'd be more likely to happen on the faster Lenglen court in the earlier rounds as it's much faster.

 

[Kieran]

Yeah, Rafa is lucky in Paris... :laydownlaughing

 

[Moxie]

^ In fairness, Front, you deserve that laugh. And he hasn't had all sunny, hot finals in recent years.

 

[Kieran]

Yeah, and it's really unfair to have to play tennis in the sunshine. I say put a roof on it and have a sprinkler system in effect throughout the whole match! :lolz:

 

[Front242]

^ In fairness, Front, you deserve that laugh. And he hasn't had all sunny, hot finals in recent years.

Well the hilarious thing is I'm not the one who wrote the 2 paragraphs on the weather being an issue but good to see only my post was answered. Nice selective replying as usual by the Nadal camp. Anyway, here's how the weather panned out and I'm actually right:

2010, the famous rematch with Soderling where there was so much talk off damper, cooler conditions being in Soderling's favour and the final turns out completely sunny. 2011 weather was great too but then again he was only playing Roger so who cares but either way the sun helped his topspin to Roger's BH a lot. 2012, the rain was for one set, they postponed and came back in blazing sunshine on the Monday. 2013 slightly windy at the start but sunny all the way throughout and this year sunny all match. So yes, he has had sunny finals except for a tiny portion of 2012's final which he won anyway as the match resumed in sun.

 

[Front242]

Yeah, and it's really unfair to have to play tennis in the sunshine. I say put a roof on it and have a sprinkler system in effect throughout the whole match! :lolz:

No one said it was unfair, I said the conditions favoured Nadal a lot more in recent years and that's common knowledge to anyone who follows the sport.

 

[isabelle]

I'm going with 10 but I'll be happy if he wins more

 

[Backhand_DTL]

^ Yeah the impact weather has at RG in particular is pretty sizeable and Nadal's been lucky a lot more than the others he's played in recent years to have had sunny, hot finals. Also, if he's to be beaten it'd be more likely to happen on the faster Lenglen court in the earlier rounds as it's much faster.

In fairness I didn't want to say Nadal needs any luck to win RG. His level in 2008, 2010 and probably also 2012 would see him win against anybody regardless of the conditions. Against most players he is still a huge favorite in any weather. The conditions in last year's final weren't favorable to Rafa and he still won easily and this year he could push players like Thiem or Dimitrov far behind the baseline without his shots getting any help from the court.

Apart from Novak I only see Del Potro, Nishikori and Gulbis when those three are in great form as potentially dangerous for Rafa. Against those type of players that have very reliable backhands and the ability to take the ball on the rise I think the conditions greatly affect the patterns in the rallies. With a very high bounce even against those Rafa is able to dictate the majority of them without having to take risks and it seems impossible to play consistently aggressive for anyone against him then. With a lower bouncing court Rafa remains very hard to beat, but it is at least significantly easier to put him on the defence and make him feel uncomfortable for the players having the needed skills.

 

[Front242]

^ Yeah the impact weather has at RG in particular is pretty sizeable and Nadal's been lucky a lot more than the others he's played in recent years to have had sunny, hot finals. Also, if he's to be beaten it'd be more likely to happen on the faster Lenglen court in the earlier rounds as it's much faster.

In fairness I didn't want to say Nadal needs any luck to win RG. His level in 2008, 2010 and probably also 2012 would see him win against anybody regardless of the conditions. Against most players he is still a huge favorite in any weather. The conditions in last year's final weren't favorable to Rafa and he still won easily and this year he could push players like Thiem or Dimitrov far behind the baseline without his shots getting any help from the court.

Apart from Novak I only see Del Potro, Nishikori and Gulbis when those three are in great form as potentially dangerous for Rafa. Against those type of players that have very reliable backhands and the ability to take the ball on the rise I think the conditions greatly affect the patterns in the rallies. With a very high bounce even against those Rafa is able to dictate the majority of them without having to take risks and it seems impossible to play consistently aggressive for anyone against him then. With a lower bouncing court Rafa remains very hard to beat, but it is at least significantly easier to put him on the defence and make him feel uncomfortable for the players having the needed skills.

Sure, I understood 100% that you weren't saying he needs any luck to win and when replying I wasn't saying that either, but merely agreeing with you that sunny conditions greatly aid his topspin and overall game as a result. Btw look who he played in last year's final The same guy gave up at 1 set all this year when they played at RG so I don't think weather matters at all playing Ferrer!

 

[Kieran]

Yeah, and it's really unfair to have to play tennis in the sunshine. I say put a roof on it and have a sprinkler system in effect throughout the whole match! :lolz:

No one said it was unfair, I said the conditions favoured Nadal a lot more in recent years and that's common knowledge to anyone who follows the sport.

Actually, the conditions favour tennis.

Tennis should be played in bright sunlight - when it's summer. Praying for damp and rain and wet is only hoping for spoilers. It isn't luck or fortune to be better when the conditions for playing are optimum. It's a sign of weakness to be trying to make the surface play less like it should in normal summer-time conditions, by hoping it rains, or asking for it to be hosed down so the other guy will stop hitting great shots.

And I'm not getting at Djoker here - just the silly notion that in some way, Nadal benefits from playing tennis on a normal summers day - in summer... :nono

 

[Backhand_DTL]

The problem for Ferrer is that he needs to redline his game to have a chance against Nadal. If he executes well and Rafa plays solid but nothing special he is often able to hold his own for around two hours, but if he hasn't won by then his level regularly drops and he goes on to lose easily. And if Nadal is playing really well Ferrer is simply overmatched and you get results like last year's RG final or the 2012 semi final.

The point I was trying to make is that the weather doesn't matter too much for Nadal against most players. When he is in good form on clay even now he is the obvious favorite against anyone in sunny conditions and a big favorite over anyone but Novak in neutral conditions. Only if it's damp or cool he is a slight underdog versus Djokovic and I would give players like Del Potro, Nishikori, Gulbis, maybe Murray and big servers/hitters, that play great on the day, any chance to beat or at least really trouble Rafa. So bringing up Nadal being lucky a lot seemed a bit inappropriate to me. For this year and last year there is some truth to it as the weather didn't favor him for the majority of the tournament, but significantly helped him in the matches against Novak. But you never know if different conditions would really have lead to a different outcome.

Actually, the conditions favour tennis.

Tennis should be played in bright sunlight - when it's summer. Praying for damp and rain and wet is only hoping for spoilers. It isn't luck or fortune to be better when the conditions for playing are optimum. It's a sign of weakness to be trying to make the surface play less like it should in normal summer-time conditions, by hoping it rains, or asking for it to be hosed down so the other guy will stop hitting great shots.

And I'm not getting at Djoker here - just the silly notion that in some way, Nadal benefits from playing tennis on a normal summers day - in summer... No No

If you want Novak to win/Rafa to lose you certainly hope for rainy/cold conditions, but the weather in their matches 2013 and 2014 wasn't really a normal day for that time of the year either, but stood out as especially hot. From an objective point of view nice weather like at the Wimbledon final would be the most interesting as neither would have an advantage/disadvantage because of the conditions and it would just come down to better form and play on the day.

 

[Kieran]

What do you mean, it was "especially hot?"

It's Paris in June! It could be a heatwave and there's nothing odd or special about it. It would be especially odd if we want wet and cold weather in Paris in June. This is why they play slams in summer.

Seriously, Novak has played Rafa 7 times in best-of-5 on clay: he's won 4 sets. The weather isn't an issue...

 

[Front242]

This year's final was up for grabs. Neither guy played especially well and Novak was seen puking a few times. Pretty sure Rafa is quite relieved how that final went. That Novak timidly screwed up and didn't even force a 2nd set TB made his life even easier. PS: -FG- is right, the whole tournament bar the semi and final was played in sub 20c conditions, often as low as 15c. The final was 28c. That's a drastic change in temperature from the days before.

 

[Kieran]

Yeah, it's more like summer, isn't it?

This all has nothing to do with the fact that they've played 7 times in best of 5 on clay - and Novak has won a total of 4 sets in those seven matches. Trust me, it's not the weather. Give Rafa a little bit of credit for being half decent on clay, eh?

I predicted Nole to end with 9 or 10, which I based upon his hot and cold nature. I think he must get a second US Open at some stage, if only to bring his efforts in that event up to speed: he;s currently 1:4 in finals. Another Oz isn't beyond him, or maybe 2...

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I feel Novak will stop at 11. I will give hime 2 more AO, one RG and one more USO
to go alone with the seven he already has. He will complete the career grand slam by
winning RG one day or other as he is currently the second best player.

I think Murray will neither complete career grand slam, nor will reach #1 ever.
However, I think he will add a few more GS trophies. But, his total will be 7 or less,
probably 5.

 

[Front242]

I feel Novak will stop at 11. I will give hime 2 more AO, one RG and one more USO
to go alone with the seven he already has. He will complete the career grand slam by
winning RG one day or other as he is currently the second best player.

I think Murray will neither complete career grand slam, nor will reach #1 ever.
However, I think he will add a few more GS trophies. But, his total will be 7 or less,
probably 5.

Man, I must've missed those incredible finals at the Us Open when he won it 7 times already! Damn, that's impressive :snigger

 

[Backhand_DTL]

What do you mean, it was "especially hot?"

It's Paris in June! It could be a heatwave and there's nothing odd or special about it. It would be especially odd if we want wet and cold weather in Paris in June. This is why they play slams in summer.

Seriously, Novak has played Rafa 7 times in best-of-5 on clay: he's won 4 sets. The weather isn't an issue...

Both, this year and last year the temperatures were below 20° Celcius for most of the tournament with occassional rain on some days, but the matches between Rafa and Novak were on a day where it was sunny and around I think 28°. It's not that those temperatures are remarkabe for the end of May/early June but they really stood out for the time of the tournament in these years. The average temperature in Paris for this time of the year ist probably something slightly above 20°.

As for their best-of-5 matches on clay, four of those were between 2006 and early 2009 where Rafa was clearly superior to Novak on clay, so it's not surprising Rafa won these comfortably. In the match 2012 Rafa was in much better form (he even won in 2 sets in damp conditions in Rome three weeks before), so Novak would have needed favorable weather for most of the match to have a real chance but only got it during the third set.

In 2011, 2013 and 2014 Novak entered the French Open having won against Rafa in a clay Masters 1000 before. In 2011 Novak lost in the semi final, but in 2013 and 2014 their form before the match against each other was similar. And both times the majority of the rallies looked significantly different to Monte Carlo 2013 or Rome 2014 with Rafa being much more in control and not struggling nearly as much in most of his service games. I don't think such a big difference can be explained by mentality or something like that, but comes down to that playing as clean and aggressive as needed is not sustainable for Novak with the bounce in hot, sunny conditions.

So when both played at a similar level in getting there, the weather is an extremely important factor for their match-up on clay since 2011 in my opinion.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I feel Novak will stop at 11. I will give hime 2 more AO, one RG and one more USO
to go alone with the seven he already has. He will complete the career grand slam by
winning RG one day or other as he is currently the second best player.

I think Murray will neither complete career grand slam, nor will reach #1 ever.
However, I think he will add a few more GS trophies. But, his total will be 7 or less,
probably 5.

Man, I must've missed those incredible finals at the Us Open when he won it 7 times already! Damn, that's impressive :snigger

7 refers to his total GS trophies. :nono

 

[Riotbeard]

Yeah, and it's really unfair to have to play tennis in the sunshine. I say put a roof on it and have a sprinkler system in effect throughout the whole match! :lolz:

No one said it was unfair, I said the conditions favoured Nadal a lot more in recent years and that's common knowledge to anyone who follows the sport.

Actually, the conditions favour tennis.

Tennis should be played in bright sunlight - when it's summer. Praying for damp and rain and wet is only hoping for spoilers. It isn't luck or fortune to be better when the conditions for playing are optimum. It's a sign of weakness to be trying to make the surface play less like it should in normal summer-time conditions, by hoping it rains, or asking for it to be hosed down so the other guy will stop hitting great shots.

And I'm not getting at Djoker here - just the silly notion that in some way, Nadal benefits from playing tennis on a normal summers day - in summer... :nono

Where I live it rains on normal summer days. It's called the sub-tropics.

Weather is weather friend. It has no meaning. There isn't a natural vs. unnatural weather. Nadal benefits from drier clay, novak from wet clay. Both are natural. The clay dirt (natural clay not tennis) I grew up around would more often have been wet than dry.

 

[atttomole]

I predict 14 or 15 for Djokovic if he can stay injury free. I think he now knows how to win Wimbledon, and I would put him as favorite ahead of Nadal or Murray at Wimbledon. I predict 3 more Wimbies, 3 more Australians and 2 US Opens.