Greatest Upset in Recent History

[Moxie]

Today's upset was big. Commentators have proclaimed it one of the biggest in tennis history. OK, they're given to hyperbole. They said the same when Nadal lost to Soderling in RG 2009. Both were huge upsets. Weigh in as to which is bigger, or others you see as greater, or also shocking in the last decade or so. I don't think there is a write-in option, so I've added a few others that were also big upsets. It is a multiple-choice poll, so you can vote for more than one.

 

[DarthFed]

Rafa's loss to soderling was a far greater upset. This may be the biggest upset since then though.

Only other arguable one is rosol over Rafa because the former was a complete unknown. But beating Rafa in the early rounds of Wimbledon was a far easier task than beating Nole in any slam.

 

[Moxie]

Rafa's loss to soderling was a far greater upset. This may be the biggest upset since then though.

Only other arguable one is rosol over Rafa because the former was a complete unknown. But beating Rafa in the early rounds of Wimbledon was a far easier task than beating Nole in any slam.

I agree, because it was Nadal on clay, considered at that moment the surest bet in sports. Djokovic isn't as dominant on grass. The surprise today was, given his run of dominance, and the opponent. I actually thought Raonic might get him, or Roger. Still, huge upset.

 

[DarthFed]

Agreed, though I don't think Roger would have taken him if that had been the semi. If I had filled out a bracket for this tournament I'd have picked Murray beating Nole in the final.

 

[Moxie]

Agreed, though I don't think Roger would have taken him if that had been the semi. If I had filled out a bracket for this tournament I'd have picked Murray beating Nole in the final.

I get your point. I do think the pressure has been getting to Novak. I thought there were a couple of places he might get tripped up, but this wasn't one of them.

 

[Carol]

Well, I don't think this loss of Novak has been so big surprise. Novak this year has been on the ropes many times but at the end (not in MC) he or better to say his opponents have helped him a lot to be able to win.
He has been the most consistent player while the others top players between injuries, lack of confidence and low level of game have been around but far to give a good fight and a good competition
Querrey (yesterday even better than today) has played superb, good serve as shots and spite of the weather and the interrupted matches he has known to be focused and confident which I can't say the same about Novak

 

[britbox]

Big shock but I still have Soderling/Nadal higher.

 

[Federberg]

Can't understand how Rafa beating Roger at Wimbledon 2008 even classifies as a huge shock. No 2 player in the world? Twice a finalist in the previous two years? Nah... an upset maybe, but never a shock.

For me, it still remains Soderling-Rafa. That's the Tyson - Buster Douglas of tennis and will be for a long time.

As for some of the others, DelPo beating Roger at Flushing? Again.. an upset not a shock. DelPo was a prolific winner and had already tuned Rafa. Yes Roger was the favourite but you can't say more than an upset. As for Sam beating Novak? Again you can only really call that an upset, a big one yes, but shock? No way. Sam has pedigree on grass. He's a big hitter, so any given Sunday the guy will have a punchers chance.

I was reading an article, with comments from an Australian politician who used to be a decent tennis player. He observed, and the data supports it, that Novak's 1st and 2nd serve speed has dropped off statistically significantly this year. He reckons that Novak might have the yips on his 2nd serve and is protecting it by trying to increase 1st serve percentage. He observed that a lot of players who are in their prime have these mental problems and they often never recover. I recall after the French or Australian, I forget which, saying that be careful when you extrapolate dominance into the future. It could end anytime.

PS, before anyone gets their knickers in a twist, I'm not predicting the end of Novak's dominance. Just pointing out the unrealistic predictions of how far Novak can go

 

[Moxie]

For the record, I was asking about upsets, not "shocks." TBH, I only threw the others in there as potential talking points, as they get mentioned a lot. I don't think Nadal beating Roger in 08 at W was even much of an 'upset,' and a lot of people predicted it, so it wasn't a shock. And agreed about Delpotro at USO, also. I think the biggest upset AND shock was Rafa going down to Soderling. Querrey was a surprise, at the very least. And its certainly going to be in the running for upset of the year.

 

[DarthFed]

If this doesn't qualify as a "shock" there haven't been many shocks in the history of tennis. Querrey doesn't have much pedigree on grass or anywhere for that matter and Novak had something like 30 straight QF's. Novak losing at slams to players like Nishikori and Wawrinka are surprises, but that's a huge difference to losing to querrey in the early rounds

 

[Billie]

I don't think that anybody who knows anything about tennis wouldn't call this a big upset or the biggest one since Soderling beat Nadal. In the last 6 majors Nole lost only once (in the final of RG to Wawrinka), before that he was always in the last 3 rounds of every major, playing well or not, injured or not, since 2009. It's funny even the ESPN's poll had Nole coming back from 2 sets down to win at 71% at the end of Friday.

 

[Federberg]

If this doesn't qualify as a "shock" there haven't been many shocks in the history of tennis. Querrey doesn't have much pedigree on grass or anywhere for that matter and Novak had something like 30 straight QF's. Novak losing at slams to players like Nishikori and Wawrinka are surprises, but that's a huge difference to losing to querrey in the early rounds

He does have pedigree on grass. I remember watching him live at Queens where he won. And he's done well on grass in previous years. So I don't really see this as that big a shock.

 

[isabelle]

I was more surprised by Stakho who beat Federer on grass than by The Sod who beat Nadal in Rg because everybody knew that Nadal was injured and the Sod already pushed him in 5 in Wimbly 2007 (another epic match) so Stakho who beat Federer is the bigger upset for me but the Sod is a serious contender too, what he did was amazing, even if Nadal had a serous knee problem

 

[DarthFed]

He does have pedigree on grass. I remember watching him live at Queens where he won. And he's done well on grass in previous years. So I don't really see this as that big a shock.

I admit I didn't realize he won Queens but that said he was 9-8 at Wimbledon before this year and overall he's been underwhelming for many years. It's certainly hard to come up with a bigger upset at slam level since Soderling beat Nadal.

 

[DarthFed]

I was more surprised by Stakho who beat Federer on grass than by The Sod who beat Nadal in Rg because everybody knew that Nadal was injured and the Sod already pushed him in 5 in Wimbly 2007 (another epic match) so Stakho who beat Federer is the bigger upset for me but the Sod is a serious contender too, what he did was amazing, even if Nadal had a serous knee problem

Actually most didn't know he was injured before losing to Sod. He had swept everything aside from losing the Madrid final. And he had also beat Sod 6-0 6-1 a couple weeks before RG. Sod and damn near everyone could push Rafa to the max in the early rounds at Wimbledon, there isn't much to go off there.

Fed losing early in 2013 was a big upset but not on the level of those other two. He had been having a bad season up to that point and starting with Wimbledon it turned even worse.

 

[Federberg]

Actually most didn't know he was injured before losing to Sod. He had swept everything aside from losing the Madrid final. And he had also beat Sod 6-0 6-1 a couple weeks before RG. Sod and damn near everyone could push Rafa to the max in the early rounds at Wimbledon, there isn't much to go off there.

Fed losing early in 2013 was a big upset but not on the level of those other two. He had been having a bad season up to that point and starting with Wimbledon it turned even worse.

don't start! ::sw1::

 

[Federberg]

I admit I didn't realize he won Queens but that said he was 9-8 at Wimbledon before this year and overall he's been underwhelming for many years. It's certainly hard to come up with a bigger upset at slam level since Soderling beat Nadal.

I hear you. But sooner or later he was bound to put it together. Personally, I'm not shocked. Surprised by Novak's collapse in form yes, but if I was looking through the draw and thinking of who could upset him before he got to Fed, it would have been Querrey and Raonic

 

[Moxie]

don't start! ::sw1::

Too late...he started.

@Twisted: I don't agree with Isabelle's characterization, but there's no reason for you, either, to hold the old line that there was nothing wrong with Nadal in the spring of '09, which doesn't have to take at all away from what Soderling did, or excuse Rafa's loss. But now that we're this much farther down the road we have the benefit of hindsight, and it is possible to mitigate our previous opinions. For example, I thought Roger was just gaming when he took a MTO v. Safin in the AO '05 SF, to have his back rubbed. But now I can believe that that was early signs of an issue that has troubled him. Surely you saw Nadal's knees taped much of 08 and 09, and you must believe now that he has chronic tendonitis. So he was playing with knee problems. Still, he might have gotten all the way through, if Robbie hadn't clipped him.

Soderling played one of the best matches of his career to beat Nadal that day, with the other one being the one he played to beat Roger the next year. It was a perfect storm of circumstances, IMO, the biggest being Robin's game. Another was the venom that he brought after that contentious match in Rome, which was far closer than the scoreline indicated; yet another was that it was heavy and chilly that day. Rafa didn't lose because his knees were bad. But he stopped after that because they were a mess, and he needed to take care of them...he was just going to keep playing on them until they gave out (which he says he didn't believe at the time,) or until someone beat him and he was forced to deal with them, which is what happened. In any case, he took the biggest scalp in tennis at that time: Rafa at RG. And everyone was shocked.

By the same token, Querrey played a really good match to get Novak on Sat. I don't think it takes anything away from him to say what we all saw, which is that Djokovic was jaded. Whether or not there's a shoulder issue, who knows. Most athletes hurt a certain amount most of the time. It hurts a lot less when you win. But my point is that it doesn't have to be completely b/w what goes into an upset. Sometimes there are a few things going on at the same time. Sometimes not: when Rafa lost to Kyrgios (W) and Roger to Cilic (USO) in '14, it was because each was just hit off the court.

 

[isabelle]

Too late...he started.

@Twisted: I don't agree with Isabelle's characterization, but there's no reason for you, either, to hold the old line that there was nothing wrong with Nadal in the spring of '09, which doesn't have to take at all away from what Soderling did, or excuse Rafa's loss. But now that we're this much farther down the road we have the benefit of hindsight, and it is possible to mitigate our previous opinions. For example, I thought Roger was just gaming when he took a MTO v. Safin in the AO '05 SF, to have his back rubbed. But now I can believe that that was early signs of an issue that has troubled him. Surely you saw Nadal's knees taped much of 08 and 09, and you must believe now that he has chronic tendonitis. So he was playing with knee problems. Still, he might have gotten all the way through, if Robbie hadn't clipped him.

Soderling played one of the best matches of his career to beat Nadal that day, with the other one being the one he played to beat Roger the next year. It was a perfect storm of circumstances, IMO, the biggest being Robin's game. Another was the venom that he brought after that contentious match in Rome, which was far closer than the scoreline indicated; yet another was that it was heavy and chilly that day. Rafa didn't lose because his knees were bad. But he stopped after that because they were a mess, and he needed to take care of them...he was just going to keep playing on them until they gave out (which he says he didn't believe at the time,) or until someone beat him and he was forced to deal with them, which is what happened. In any case, he took the biggest scalp in tennis at that time: Rafa at RG. And everyone was shocked.

By the same token, Querrey played a really good match to get Novak on Sat. I don't think it takes anything away from him to say what we all saw, which is that Djokovic was jaded. Whether or not there's a shoulder issue, who knows. Most athletes hurt a certain amount most of the time. It hurts a lot less when you win. But my point is that it doesn't have to be completely b/w what goes into an upset. Sometimes there are a few things going on at the same time. Sometimes not: when Rafa lost to Kyrgios (W) and Roger to Cilic (USO) in '14, it was because each was just hit off the court.

all winners deserve their wins nevertheless (Robin, Stakho, Sam etc..)

 

[DarthFed]

Too late...he started.

@Twisted: I don't agree with Isabelle's characterization, but there's no reason for you, either, to hold the old line that there was nothing wrong with Nadal in the spring of '09, which doesn't have to take at all away from what Soderling did, or excuse Rafa's loss. But now that we're this much farther down the road we have the benefit of hindsight, and it is possible to mitigate our previous opinions. For example, I thought Roger was just gaming when he took a MTO v. Safin in the AO '05 SF, to have his back rubbed. But now I can believe that that was early signs of an issue that has troubled him. Surely you saw Nadal's knees taped much of 08 and 09, and you must believe now that he has chronic tendonitis. So he was playing with knee problems. Still, he might have gotten all the way through, if Robbie hadn't clipped him.

Soderling played one of the best matches of his career to beat Nadal that day, with the other one being the one he played to beat Roger the next year. It was a perfect storm of circumstances, IMO, the biggest being Robin's game. Another was the venom that he brought after that contentious match in Rome, which was far closer than the scoreline indicated; yet another was that it was heavy and chilly that day. Rafa didn't lose because his knees were bad. But he stopped after that because they were a mess, and he needed to take care of them...he was just going to keep playing on them until they gave out (which he says he didn't believe at the time,) or until someone beat him and he was forced to deal with them, which is what happened. In any case, he took the biggest scalp in tennis at that time: Rafa at RG. And everyone was shocked.

By the same token, Querrey played a really good match to get Novak on Sat. I don't think it takes anything away from him to say what we all saw, which is that Djokovic was jaded. Whether or not there's a shoulder issue, who knows. Most athletes hurt a certain amount most of the time. It hurts a lot less when you win. But my point is that it doesn't have to be completely b/w what goes into an upset. Sometimes there are a few things going on at the same time. Sometimes not: when Rafa lost to Kyrgios (W) and Roger to Cilic (USO) in '14, it was because each was just hit off the court.

I never said he wasn't injured it's just at the time of the match most if not all weren't aware of it given what I mentioned before. And that's why it's probably the greatest shock in tennis history.