@GameSetAndMath : This is your response to my post in the Rankings Thread doubting Roger's Wimbledon odds of 36%. I didn't want to keep polluting that thread..it's nice to keep that one to its purpose, I think. Your post:
"If Roger plays like he did in Halle, then there are at least 20 different players who can take him out.
If Roger plays somewhat decent, then here are the folks who can take him out.
1. Cilic (he is really good on grass with powerful serve and good movement)
2. JMDP (he is a big stage player and has pedigree in Wimbledon)
3. Rejuvenated Novak
4. Kyrgios (every set is a TB with this guy, it is a coin toss, he may win more coin tosses, he does not pee in his pants when seeing big four)
5. An odd upset by any number of folks such as Misha, Querry, Isner, Borna, etc. (this is less probable)."
I take your points and your list on board. Of those, the likeliest one to make the final or SF is Cilic. And I don't think Roger would see him before then, at which point I think Roger will be well-ready. Djokovic is much more vulnerable to upset than either, but, sure, if he's finding his groove and gets Roger semi-early, he might take him out. To @Darth's point, in the post after yours, about Roger finding his motivation: if he's not going to be motivated for Wimbledon, I don't know what. If he can't really find his grass game, that's another thing, but I tend to think he'll be finding that higher gear he's been holding in reserve to conserve energy. I know nothing about betting odds, so if it's 36% chance, I won't argue. But the one person Roger won't have to play is his best self. Even if he's not A+, he can still take on the field, so it's down to how he's feeling it.