General Ruminations --- 2016 ATP Season.

[Great Hands]

I don't understand all the caterwauling! It's not like Nole is out there telling them to lay down slow courts everywhere! It's also ridiculous to say you can't hit winners on these courts; sure it can be done! Nole hit enough against Nadal and Murray over in Asia! You just have to be more thoughtful in placements; not necessarily to hit THRU someone, but to hit behind them more often and put it away at the net! Come on GUYS! ;-) :ras:

I was not criticising Novak at all - as I said in my posts, he is one of the greatest ever.

I also never said he was asking anybody to lay down slow courts.

I was just observing that faster courts give Roger and Andy a better chance in their specific matchups with Novak, as the head to heads show.

It would also be nice to see some more variety in court speed on hard courts. I know there are others out there who would also like to see some more faster surfaces.

You are right that you can hit winners on slower courts - but my point is that no one is able to do that consistently enough against Novak on slower courts except Stan really, on a good day. Because Novak is so good at getting balls back. It's a compliment to Novak!

 

[Fiero425]

I don't understand all the caterwauling! It's not like Nole is out there telling them to lay down slow courts everywhere! It's also ridiculous to say you can't hit winners on these courts; sure it can be done! Nole hit enough against Nadal and Murray over in Asia! You just have to be more thoughtful in placements; not necessarily to hit THRU someone, but to hit behind them more often and put it away at the net! Come on GUYS! ;-) :ras:

I was not criticising Novak at all - as I said in my posts, he is one of the greatest ever.

I also never said he was asking anybody to lay down slow courts.

I was just observing that faster courts give Roger and Andy a better chance in their specific matchups with Novak, as the head to heads show.

It would also be nice to see some more variety in court speed on hard courts. I know there are others out there who would also like to see some more faster surfaces.

You are right that you can hit winners on slower courts - but my point is that no one is able to do that consistently enough against Novak on slower courts except Stan really, on a good day. Because Novak is so good at getting balls back. It's a compliment to Novak!

My confusion comes in due to Nadal fans who weren't exactly complaining about how slow clay is and how Rafa owned the surface for so long during his great run! Maybe you aren't whining about how unfair the courts are tofay in favor of Novak, but I felt that way years ago with Nadal and all those clay court victories! :nono :angel: :dodgy: :ras: :cover

 

[herios]

For next year I am expecting to see Novak and Murray to retain their top 2 ranking positions overall, even though Murray might slip back periodically below Roger.
Andy will be most likely more consistent overall than Roger and Rafa.
At the same time, will be interesting to see if Nole and Andy overall performance will take a dive or not due to aging. They are arriving to that critical point of age (29), when both Roger and Rafa's game suffered an erosion (Roger in 2010 and Rafa in 2015).

 

[Great Hands]

More on the Djokorray matchup:

Novak vs Andy on slower courts pre-2015:
Novak won 14/16 = 88%

Novak vs Andy on slower courts in 2015:
Novak won 6/7 = 86%

So, pretty much exactly the same.

i.e. The Djokorray matches this year have gone absolutely as expected, based on their head to head before this year. And yet pundits and commentators seem surprised. Why can't Andy beat Novak on slow hards? they say. Well, Andy could never beat Novak on slower hards, or hardly ever. So I haven't been surprised by the Djokorray matches this year. I've watched Novak beat Andy all but twice on slower courts in their 27 meetings before this year. The only result which surprised me this year was Andy beating Novak in Canada, wasn't expecting that one.

Murray's success against Novak this year has been pretty much exactly the same as it always has been. Not better, not worse.

Certainly since 2011, Novak is either greatly or marginally superior to Andy in every single area of the game. He has a better first serve (Andy's is bigger, but Novak's is more consistent), a much better second serve, a better FH, a marginally better BH, a marginally better return, and he's a better athlete too. All those margins add up. The only areas of the game I can think of where Andy is superior to Novak is his slice (but Novak's slice is far better than it used to be), and his great hands (but again, Novak may not have Murray's outstanding feel, but he does have excellent feel, more than enough to enable him to do what he needs to do on the court). So the only areas of the game where Andy is superior to Novak are not areas which help him to beat Novak.

In other words, Novak holds all the cards. The match is always on his racket. If he plays his precision offense, A-game, he will beat Andy.

But - the margins are small enough that if Novak is even a bit off, and Andy plays well, Andy can beat Novak. i.e. Even though Novak's B and even C game can beat most players, he needs his A game to beat Andy, if Andy is playing at a high level.

The question, then, is always whether Novak brings his A-game, at least enough of the time.

Faster surfaces also give Andy a better shot, as mentioned.

And as I said before, saying Murray is not as good as Djokovic is no insult to Andy. Other players who have been less successful than Djokovic has been already: Connors, Lendl, Agassi, McEnroe, Wilander, Becker, Edberg etc. So it's no disgrace to not be as good as Novak.

 

[Great Hands]

More on the Djokorray matchup:

title: Looking at the Djokorray matchup

Novak beating Andy 6 out of 7 times this year has been seen by some as surprising, as if Novak is beating Andy more than he used to. But it's not surprising to me, a Murray fan. Some stats illustrate why:

Novak vs Andy on slower courts pre-2015:
Novak won 14/16 = 88%

Novak vs Andy on slower courts in 2015:
Novak won 6/7 = 86%

So, pretty much exactly the same.

i.e. The results of the Djokorray matches this year have gone absolutely as expected, based on their head to head before this year. And yet pundits and commentators seem surprised. Why can't Andy beat Novak on slow hards? they say. Well, Andy could never beat Novak on slower hards, or hardly ever. So I haven't been surprised by the Djokorray matches this year. I've watched Novak beat Andy all but twice on slower courts in their 27 meetings before this year. The only result which surprised me this year was Andy beating Novak in Canada, wasn't expecting that one.

Murray's success against Novak this year has been pretty much exactly the same as it always has been. Not better, not worse.

Certainly since 2011, Novak is either greatly or marginally superior to Andy in every single area of the game. He has a better first serve (Andy's is bigger, but Novak's is more consistent), a much better second serve, a better FH, a marginally better BH, a marginally better return, and he's a better athlete too. All those margins add up. The only areas of the game I can think of where Andy is superior to Novak is his slice (but Novak's slice is far better than it used to be), and his great hands (but again, Novak may not have Murray's outstanding feel, but he does have excellent feel, more than enough to enable him to do what he needs to do on the court). So the only areas of the game where Andy is superior to Novak are not areas which help him to beat Novak.

In other words, Novak holds all the cards. The match is always on his racket. If he plays his precision offense, A-game, he will beat Andy.

But - the margins are small enough that if Novak is even a bit off, and Andy plays well, Andy can beat Novak (for this year's example, see the Montreal Masters final). i.e. Even though Novak's B and even C game can beat most players, he needs his A game to beat Andy, if Andy is playing at a high level.

The question, then, is always whether Novak brings his A-game, at least enough of the time.

Faster surfaces also give Andy a better shot, as mentioned.

And as I said before, saying Murray is not as good as Djokovic is no insult to Andy. Other players who have been less successful than Djokovic has been already: Connors, Lendl, Agassi, McEnroe, Wilander, Becker, Edberg etc. So it's no disgrace to not be as good as Novak.

 

[herios]

Tomic seems in that group with Goffin and Sock as future #10-20 guys. Simon/Isner/Robredo types.

Something is inaccurate in your statement. All of the Simon, Isner and Robredo were peaking in the top 10 and not top 11-20. Or did you mean a top 11-20 most of the time with some short lived top 10 status?
Goffin I think is playing close to his top level of his career and he could peak in the next 1-2 years or so.
Sock and Tomic are younger and IMO more upside potential.

 

[isabelle]

Kokkinakis out of Brisbane and AO (shoulder surgery)

 

[herios]

Kokkinakis out of Brisbane and AO (shoulder surgery)

Shoulder surgery at 19, not a good sign for his future. I remember Fashionista mentioned about Kokkinakis that he had physical health issues early on as junior.

 

[Front242]

Nasty. Seems the Aussies aren't very lucky. Tomic has already had bilateral hip surgery at a very young age and Kyrgios has had a bunch of stuff bothering him too. And speaking of further injured Aussies, Hewitt will be saying goodbye to the ATP tour next month.

 

[El Dude]

Tomic seems in that group with Goffin and Sock as future #10-20 guys. Simon/Isner/Robredo types.

Something is inaccurate in your statement. All of the Simon, Isner and Robredo were peaking in the top 10 and not top 11-20. Or did you mean a top 11-20 most of the time with some short lived top 10 status?
Goffin I think is playing close to his top level of his career and he could peak in the next 1-2 years or so.
Sock and Tomic are younger and IMO more upside potential.

Sorry, I missed this, herios.

Yes, I mean regulars in the 11-20 range, not peak ranking. Those three older players all reached the top 10, but couldn't sustain it, but did settle in in the 11-20 range for large portions of their careers.

 

[herios]

After seeing the results he scored this week in Abu Dhabi, I am certain if Milos will be healthy, he will return to the top 10 this year, hopefully top 8. He just turned 25, so he should get into peak stage in his career.

 

[Kieran]

Who's coaching Milos now?

 

[herios]

Who's coaching Milos now?

Riccardo Piatti. He was coaching him together with Ivan, now he is the only coach for him.