General Ruminations --- 2016 ATP Season.

[Front242]

^ Agreed. It wasn't even competitive this year after set 1 and set 3 ended 6-1. There's nothing to base a Nadal victory on after that other than blatant hope unless he beats Djokovic at least once next season leading up to Roland Garros. He hasn't even won a set in their last 4 matches and Novak has won the last 8 of 9 matches they've played.

 

[herios]

I checked out the betting odds for all 4 slams for next year. Novak leads in all 4 of them which is no surprise.
What makes me to scratch my head is who is second best bet. At the AO, W and USO is Murray, Roger is 3 at all slams but RG, where he is 6 favorite:

AO:
1 Novak, 2 Andy, 3 Roger
RG:
1 Novak, 2 Rafa, 3 Stan
W:
1. Novak, 2 Andy, 3 Roger
USO:
1. Novak, 2 Andy, 3 Roger

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I checked out the betting odds for all 4 slams for next year. Novak leads in all 4 of them which is no surprise.
What makes me to scratch my head is who is second best bet. At the AO, W and USO is Murray, Roger is 3 at all slams but RG, where he is 6 favorite:

AO:
1 Novak, 2 Andy, 3 Roger
RG:
1 Novak, 2 Rafa, 3 Stan
W:
1. Novak, 2 Andy, 3 Roger
USO:
1. Novak, 2 Andy, 3 Roger

Nothing here makes me scratch my head. These are sensible odds. Andy is young and could be buoyed by DC bounce. Further he is ranked #2 and if he could maintain that he can reach finals without facing Novak, whereas Fed has to face Novak at least half the time.

 

[herios]

I checked out the betting odds for all 4 slams for next year. Novak leads in all 4 of them which is no surprise.
What makes me to scratch my head is who is second best bet. At the AO, W and USO is Murray, Roger is 3 at all slams but RG, where he is 6 favorite:

AO:
1 Novak, 2 Andy, 3 Roger
RG:
1 Novak, 2 Rafa, 3 Stan
W:
1. Novak, 2 Andy, 3 Roger
USO:
1. Novak, 2 Andy, 3 Roger

Nothing here makes me scratch my head. These are sensible odds. Andy is young and could be buoyed by DC bounce. Further he is ranked #2 and if he could maintain that he can reach finals without facing Novak, whereas Fed has to face Novak at least half the time.

I know the age factor is in Andy's favor, but the Roger vs. Andy results this year should also weigh in for some extent.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I checked out the betting odds for all 4 slams for next year. Novak leads in all 4 of them which is no surprise.
What makes me to scratch my head is who is second best bet. At the AO, W and USO is Murray, Roger is 3 at all slams but RG, where he is 6 favorite:

AO:
1 Novak, 2 Andy, 3 Roger
RG:
1 Novak, 2 Rafa, 3 Stan
W:
1. Novak, 2 Andy, 3 Roger
USO:
1. Novak, 2 Andy, 3 Roger

Nothing here makes me scratch my head. These are sensible odds. Andy is young and could be buoyed by DC bounce. Further he is ranked #2 and if he could maintain that he can reach finals without facing Novak, whereas Fed has to face Novak at least half the time.

I know the age factor is in Andy's favor, but the Roger vs. Andy results this year should also weigh in for some extent.

Assuming, Andy maintains his ranking, of the 4 slams Rog is expected to be in Novak's half and be stopped by Novak. Of the other two when Rog and ANdy could meet, give Andy one and Roger one win. That works out to Andy being #2 in three of four slams. Further, in RG lots of people can stop Rpger these days, the task does not require a Novak.

 

[Kirijax]

Somewhere, someday Djokovic is going to stumble, and Murray will be there to take the prize. And of course, everyone will say that Murray won only because Djokovic played badly. Or it was windy. Or his Uniqlo outfit was too tight. :snicker

 

[Front242]

And they'd be right because with that match up it's obvious who the clearly superior player is and he does indeed need to underperform to lose to Murray.

 

[Kirijax]

And they'd be right because with that match up it's obvious who the clearly superior player is and he does indeed need to underperform to lose to Murray.

Wrong. Gonna have to disagree with you on that one. Is Wawrinka better than Djokovic?

 

[Front242]

Clearly no he's not as the h2h would indicate. 21 v 4 in Djokovic's favour. Now check Djokovic v Murray. 21-9. He's clearly far better than both but Stan can be a deadly opponent when he's in form and even in the ones Novak has won he's had a very tough time on many occasions against Stan. Murray is rarely a deadly opponent versus Djokovic.

 

[Kirijax]

Clearly no he's not as the h2h would indicate. 21 v 4 in Djokovic's favour. Now check Djokovic v Murray. 21-9. He's clearly far better than both but Stan can be a deadly opponent when he's in form and even in the ones Novak has won he's had a very tough time on many occasions against Stan. Murray is rarely a deadly opponent versus Djokovic.

LOL You sound like an adult on a Charlie Brown cartoon.

 

[Front242]

Well I guess if you've no comeback to counter what I said you might as well type something. The truth hurts. Djokovic rarely has much trouble against Murray these days.

 

[Kirijax]

Well I guess if you've no comeback to counter what I said you might as well type something. The truth hurts. Djokovic rarely has much trouble against Murray these days.

2012 Olympics Semifinals 7-5, 7-5
2012 USO Final 7-6(10), 7-5, 2-6, 3-6, 6-2
2013 Wimbledon Final 6-4, 7-5, 6-4

That's all the comeback I need. I'm done with this time-wasting conversation.

 

[nehmeth]

Clearly no he's not as the h2h would indicate. 21 v 4 in Djokovic's favour. Now check Djokovic v Murray. 21-9. He's clearly far better than both but Stan can be a deadly opponent when he's in form and even in the ones Novak has won he's had a very tough time on many occasions against Stan. Murray is rarely a deadly opponent versus Djokovic.

Yes. And Wawrinka actually believes he can hit through Novak if he plays his best. Lendl-less Andy does need an underperforming Novak to win these days (i.e. Roger's Cup) Otherwise he has very little belief that he will win. It's 10-1 since Wimbledon 2013.

 

[herios]

I am very pleased to see Novak taking a break and not play IPTL. He just increased his chances to defend the AO.

 

[Great Hands]

I am a Murray fan, but I agree with those who say Murray needs Novak to underperform to win. This is no disgrace. It looks like Novak will end up being one of the top 5 greatest players who ever lived. Needing a player of that calibre to underperform to win is, as I say, no disgrace at all.

I would add one other point though. Every single Djokorray match this year was on slower surfaces, which makes it that much harder for Murray. This is not surprising, since the vast majority of tournaments these days have slow surafces, especially medium to slow hards, which is Novak's best surface and an awful surface for Murray to try to beat novak on, cause Novak has time to get everything back.

The head to head is indeed 21-9.
But, over 3/4s of their matches have been on slower surfaces.
If you separate out the results are:

On slower surfaces - 20-3 to Novak.

On faster surfaces (Cinci, Dubai, WD, USO, Olympics): 6-1 to Andy.

So if there were more tournaments played on faster surfaces, then Murray, and indeed Fed, might be able to pose more of a challenge to Novak's dominance.

But we all know that ain't gonna happen.

 

[Great Hands]

I am a Murray fan, but I agree with those who say Murray needs Novak to underperform to win. This is no disgrace. It looks like Novak will end up being one of the top 5 greatest players who ever lived. Needing a player of that calibre to underperform to win is, as I say, no disgrace at all.

I would add one other point though. Every single Djokorray match this year was on slower surfaces. This is not surprising, since the vast majority of tournaments these days have slow surfaces, especially medium to slow hards, which is Novak's best surface and an awful surface for Murray to try to beat Novak on, cause Novak has time to get everything back.

The head to head is indeed 21-9.
But, over 3/4s of their matches have been on slower surfaces.
If you separate out the results are:

On slower surfaces - 20-3 to Novak.

On faster surfaces (Cinci, Dubai, WD, USO, Olympics): 6-1 to Andy.

So if there were more tournaments played on faster surfaces, then Murray, and indeed Fed, might be able to pose more of a challenge to Novak's dominance.

But courts still seem to be slowing down at the moment, rather than speeding up.

 

[Puppet Master]

I am a Murray fan, but I agree with those who say Murray needs Novak to underperform to win. This is no disgrace. It looks like Novak will end up being one of the top 5 greatest players who ever lived. Needing a player of that calibre to underperform to win is, as I say, no disgrace at all.

I would add one other point though. Every single Djokorray match this year was on slower surfaces. This is not surprising, since the vast majority of tournaments these days have slow surfaces, especially medium to slow hards, which is Novak's best surface and an awful surface for Murray to try to beat Novak on, cause Novak has time to get everything back.

The head to head is indeed 21-9.
But, over 3/4s of their matches have been on slower surfaces.
If you separate out the results are:

On slower surfaces - 20-3 to Novak.

On faster surfaces (Cinci, Dubai, WD, USO, Olympics): 6-1 to Andy.

So if there were more tournaments played on faster surfaces, then Murray, and indeed Fed, might be able to pose more of a challenge to Novak's dominance.

But courts still seem to be slowing down at the moment, rather than speeding up.

I observed this too. There should be some kind of balance at least between the masters. Indian Wells, Miami, Bercy and even Shanghai this year were so slow it was painful to watch. Djokovic basically won 1 masters title 3-4 times on mud courts, no surprise really.

 

[Great Hands]

Yep, Murray's first serve and fh on faster courts have a lot more zip and it makes it more difficult for Novak to control the points. Watching Murray play Novak on all these slow courts this year, is must be very frustrating for him, cause you can see Murray trying to be aggressive, even coming to the net etc but it's like the court is playing in slow motrion and Novak has so much time to get the ball back with interest. It's no coincidence that Stan has been the main player to trouble Novak at slams the last few years (taking Novak to 5 sets at 3 aos in a row, and at the uso, and beating him at ao and at rg etc), cause he has enough power off first and second serve, and both fh and bh, to hit through Novak and get him out of position on slower courts.

Also, if Murray hd even just a bit more success against NOvak if there were more faster courts, it would give him more belief, which would in turn help him in his matches against novak in general.

Yes, it was particularly noticeable at Shanghai, which used to be one of the faster courts.

 

[Great Hands]

I observed this too. There should be some kind of balance at least between the masters. Indian Wells, Miami, Bercy and even Shanghai this year were so slow it was painful to watch.

Yes, it was particularly noticeable at Shanghai, which used to be one of the faster courts.

It's mentioned a lot how much of a better chance Roger has against Novak on faster courts, but it's not mentioned as much how true this also is for Andy. Murray's first serve and FH on faster courts have a lot more zip and it makes it more difficult for Novak to control all the points. Watching Murray play Novak on all these slow courts this year, it must be very frustrating for him, cause you can see Murray trying to be aggressive, even coming to the net etc but it's like the court is playing in slow motion and Novak has so much time to get the ball back with interest. It's no coincidence that Stan has been the main player to trouble Novak at the first two slams recently (taking Novak to 5 sets at 3 AOs in a row, and beating him at AO and at RG etc), cause he has enough power off serve, and both FH and BH, to hit through Novak and get him out of position on slower courts. He's about the only guy who does (except Rafa on clay if he can rediscover his best form).

 

[Fiero425]

I don't understand all the caterwauling! It's not like Nole is out there telling them to lay down slow courts everywhere! It's also ridiculous to say you can't hit winners on these courts; sure it can be done! Nole hit enough against Nadal and Murray over in Asia! You just have to be more thoughtful in placements; not necessarily to hit THRU someone, but to hit behind them more often and put it away at the net! Come on GUYS! ;-) :ras: