It's funny really, but Federer has actually improved at the Nadal match-up in recent years, but he just lacks the consistency. That, and the fact that as has been mentioned above, no matter how much he improves, the basis of the match -- Nadal's CC forehand to Fed's backhand -- almost always ultimately proves too tough to overcome.
In any case, I've seen Federer use a play that Ferrer did against Rafa to good effects, which is the rally backhand down the line. I think he'd be wise to do that, as Roger is good at putting a lot of spin on his down the line backhand, put it deep, draw a short reply from Nadal, and finish with the forehand. To me, this should be his go-to play if he is to stand a chance. It's also important for him to be super sharp, and be able to change directions with his forehand well, as taking Rafa out of position with CC forehands to set up the DTL winner is the other bread-and-butter play. Most importantly, Roger needs to have a hot serving day, and put a lot of pressure on Nadal's second serve.
Anyway, Nadal in 2, maybe 3 sets if Roger catches fire for a while and becomes unplayable.
hoping fed still has some wimby magic left in him.
