Fearless Predictions

[Moxie]

^^Yeah, and the other one is the first. Though, it's not an outrageous thought that Nole goes slamless this year. :idea:

 

[isabelle]

Nalby, Safin, Ferrero, Roddick, Soderling won't return...NEVER !!!
Gasquet will never win a GS (unfortunately)
Delpo'll retire early due to injuries (unfortunately)

 

[El Dude]

Come on, isabelle, none of those are "fearless."

 

[Moxie]

Nadal will reach all four slam finals this year

But he'll only win two. He'll be relatively injury free from here onwards.

You're saying three things first, each of decreasing likelihood. All four Slam finals sees seems possible, maybe 40% of happening. Winning two? Maybe 20-30% of happening. Relatively injury free from here onwards? That seems quite possible if we're talking about 2014 alone, but the rest of his career? That's wishful thinking, my friend.

I don't see why this is as far from possible as you say. OK, Nadal's been dumped early in his last 2 Wimbys, but who on the tour, besides Federer, has made more finals there? Anyway, putting Wimbledon aside, why do you only give 20-30% chance that Nadal will win two Slams? He won 2 last year, and has 3 years when he's won 2-3. You're a stats-guy: who has such better chances in the coming up 3 that you give Nadal such a low percentage chance? I'd ask, who has a better statistical likelihood of winning 2 Slams this year?

As to injuries, Kieran said, 'relatively injury-free.' I take that to mean no long lay-offs like the ones in the past, just perhaps niggles, like the back. That's not impossible. Anyway, it's his prediction.

 

[DarthFed]

Rafa loses at RG, not sure if it will be Nole or someone else.

Murray recovers form to win Wimbledon seemingly out of nowhere.

 

[Moxie]

Rafa loses at RG, not sure if it will be Nole or someone else.

Murray recovers form to win Wimbledon seemingly out of nowhere.

It may be a bold prediction to pick 'someone' against Rafa at RG, though not surprising from you.

But it's definitely not a Fearless prediction to pick Murray to defend at Wimbledon.

 

[Front242]

All I know is the one year I backed the clown to win RG, he lost So screw that!

 

[DarthFed]

Rafa loses at RG, not sure if it will be Nole or someone else.

Murray recovers form to win Wimbledon seemingly out of nowhere.

It may be a bold prediction to pick 'someone' against Rafa at RG, though not surprising from you.

But it's definitely not a Fearless prediction to pick Murray to defend at Wimbledon.

The way Murray has looked so far...also I think things will be looking more bleak since he likely won't do well on clay. That's why I think heading into Wimbledon most would be surprised if Murray defends it.

Would it be more fearless to predict Federer wins it? I think more fearless yet would be predicting Roger wins USO. I don't think he will.

 

[DarthFed]

All I know is the one year I backed the clown to win RG, he lost So screw that!

The clown as in Djokovic? I thought 2011 was in the bag and also gave him a decent chance last year. Not sure what to make of him at this point. He has really only shown good form for 2 of the past 13 months and it came indoors.

 

[Front242]

Nah, Wafa I mean how many times had he won it before, so I had an outright bet on him for the first time ever and he lost in 2009 lol. Ah well. Made it back a thousand times over since. Still, I was happy and annoyed at the same time. A toast to Le Sod but cursed the other sod for losing me 2K

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Rafa loses at RG, not sure if it will be Nole or someone else.

Murray recovers form to win Wimbledon seemingly out of nowhere.

It may be a bold prediction to pick 'someone' against Rafa at RG, though not surprising from you.

But it's definitely not a Fearless prediction to pick Murray to defend at Wimbledon.

Why? Last time it took 76 years for a British Man to win it. No reason to think it will
be different this time.

 

[El Dude]

Moxie, I have no doubt that Rafa is the best player on tour, I just think that the odds are against him to win 2 of the 3 remaining Slams. Certainly possible, but not likely (IMO). Maybe he's got an 80% chance a Roland Garros. At Wimbledon? What about 40%? And US Open? Maybe 50%? Now while all of those look good on their own, when you combine the chances of winning two, there's a major reduction.

So let's go with this:

Roland Garros: 80%
Wimbledon: 40%
US Open: 50%

This would hold that the mathematical chances are:

Roland Garros and Wimbledon: 32%
Roland Garros and US Open: 40%
Wimbledon and US Open: 20%
All Three: 16%

So maybe I should adjust my chances to ~30%, and I think that would be accurate.

 

[Moxie]

^OK, I'll buy that, given that the odds of any one player winning 2 of the 3 remaining Slams are pretty steep, right? But he would have better odds than anyone else.

 

[DarthFed]

Nah, Wafa I mean how many times had he won it before, so I had an outright bet on him for the first time ever and he lost in 2009 lol. Ah well. Made it back a thousand times over since. Still, I was happy and annoyed at the same time. A toast to Le Sod but cursed the other sod for losing me 2K

When I back him I usually lose money as well. My $1,000 would've turned into $5,000 if he had beat Stan because I would have bet the winnings from that on Seattle straight up in the Super Bowl. Just can't win with Wafa I'm afraid.

 

[Front242]

^ Doh. Sucks :/

 

[tented]

Roger Federer will never reach another GS final

... nevertheless win one. I think his days of being a serious contender at best-of-five-set events are over. (Unfortunately.)

The US will not have a steady Top 10 player for the rest of the decade

OK, maybe not that fearless, since there's no one around who could possibly fill this role today, but I don't think there will be for many years to come, either.

Janowicz will never win a singles title above the 250 level

His game -- his "game" -- and his mental fragility will prevent this from ever happening.

 

[Kieran]

The JJ one is bold! But when I think about it, I doubt he'll win many tourneys in his careers, let alone above 250.

Federer has been in 2 slam finals out of the last 20, and none in the last 7, so that could be a good call too, brother! But while writing him off is dangerous, it fits perfectly in the spirit of the thread. You have logic on your side too...

 

[El Dude]

tented, you really could be right about JJ. Cilic and Gasquet are two players who come to mind who have never (so far) won a tournament about the 250 level. I could see JJ being in their ranks.

That said, I think he'll win at least an ATP 500, and maybe sneak out a Masters at some point. Too soon to tell.

 

[calitennis127]

Juan Martin Del Potro will retire (or be irrelevant) before he turns 30. Think about it. Del Potro is 25, 26 later this year. Do you really see him playing at a top 10 level or 4-5 more years? I just can't see it - he seems to have an old man's body. Maybe he'll have bursts here and there, but I think we've seen the best of JMDP.

Del Potro is much more likely to have longevity than Murray, in my opinion. Murray has one of the worst training regimens and fitness routines of any top player. And he still scrambles after balls like he is 8 years old. And he has a bad back. If anyone looks old or looks like he has an old body, it is him much more than Delpo.

Delpo has more in the way of weapons to win short points, and his legs and knees have not been problematic health-wise. I think he will last beyond 30. Murray is the most likely of the Top 4 to fall off the map, if I had to pick one.

 

[Front242]

^ For me your wrists are more important body parts than legs or knees for tennis. Tomic strained his groin and couldn't run to balls in his AO match against Nadal and still managed to only lose the set 6-4 with the ability to hit winners from a static position. How are you supposed to properly hit balls with a bad wrist? His right one is supposedly ok and only his left now but his whole backhand side is severely compromised. The same can't be said for any player with leg or knee issues. Leg/knee problems are more easily fixed with keyhole surgery than wrist surgery too.

Seeing as the right wrist surgery was successful I think he's wasting his time right now playing through pain and retiring from matches/tournaments and Del Potro should just bite the bullet and go for the surgery on his left wrist too at this stage.