Fearless Predictions

[El Dude]

OK, here's the game: make some predictions that aren't obvious or clearly or probably going to happen (e.g. Rafa is going to win another Slam), but involve going out on a limb. They may not even be things that you really think are going to happen, but that you could see happening, that you have a hunch about. Here are some examples to get started:

Juan Martin Del Potro will retire (or be irrelevant) before he turns 30. Think about it. Del Potro is 25, 26 later this year. Do you really see him playing at a top 10 level or 4-5 more years? I just can't see it - he seems to have an old man's body. Maybe he'll have bursts here and there, but I think we've seen the best of JMDP.

Nadal and Federer will retire within a year of each other. I know - Rafa is four and a half years younger. But he's another player that I don't see playing deep into his 30s. Why? Because its only a matter of time before the injuries catch up to him and he starts missing more and more time; this will in turn make it hard for him to play at his peak form, which will create a vicious cycle of frustration for him. Once he starts slipping he could go fast, and I just can't see him sticking around if he's not among the best. I think Roger will make good on his promise and play through the 2016 Olympics, announce his retirement perhaps at Wimbledon, and then play his swansong at Basel. Rafa? 2017 sometime - maybe Roland Garros.

Grigor Dimitrov will win at least as many Slams as Andy Murray. Truly fearless, I say! Hear me out. Andy had the bad luck of playing alongside Nadal and Djokovic (not to mention Federer) and while he may eek out 2-3 more, Grigor will take advantage of peaking while the Big Four are in decline and before the next elites rise. He's the best of his generation and could really start mopping up come 2016 or 2017.

Roger Federer has one more Slam in him. Call it a hunch, or maybe just wishful thinking, but when I look at his career Slam total I see the number "18" and not "17."

Now your turn!

 

[Front242]

Robin Soderling will never return

 

[Kieran]

Robin Soderling will never return

Ooooh, such a bold prediction! :clap :snigger

Great idea for a thread, El Dude, let me get my thinking cap on. What are the rules, do we have to believe the predictions, or just make predictions and back them up with sound reasons?

 

[El Dude]

Yeah, that's a big fail Front242

Kieran, more the latter, I think - although no hard rules here. It should be something that's fearless and bold in that it is far from a sure thing, but something you have a gut feeling for, or think could happen. Sort of like "Jerzy Janowicz will upset one of the Big Four in a Slam this year" rather than "Jerzy Janowicz will make it to the QF of a Slam this year." The latter is quite possible, even likely, while the former has a bit more juice to it.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

Stan's going to win RG this year.

 

[Kieran]

Nole will never win another slam.

Yep, you were thinking it, but I said it. And if you weren't thinking it, you were hoping it, which means you were thinking it. His confidence is low, the intensity levels are at two-thirds, he's alienated from the coach who made him number 1, he's hired Becker, and if he fails at RG & Wimbledon, the pressure will grow, and this will affect him at Flushing Meadows. Next year, the kids will be big kids.

Grigor will be world number 2 next year

Yeah, I'm a convert, especially since I see he's grown a hunger, a passion, and a little fearlessness in the clutch. He'll win a major next season - and maybe 2.

Nadal will reach all four slam finals this year

But he'll only win two. He'll be relatively injury free from here onwards.

Murray will retire within a week of Federer

Okay, so maybe I only believe half of them, I'll let you guess with two!

 

[Federberg]

Novak and Boris will part company before the US Open

Nadal will win the ATP Tour Finals this year

Dimitrov will be a top 5 player by the end of this year

Gael Monfils will win a slam

Kieran you beat me to the 'Novak will never win another slam' idea.. lol!

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

If Nole has won his final slam already and he does not know it yet, he would be very upset when he finds out.

 

[I.Haychew]

Tsonga and Pospisil will be ranked in the teens at the end of the year.

Haas will retire at the end of the year.

At some point this year, Almagro will phinally beat Pherrer.

As Kieren said, Djokovic won't win a major (this year).

Wimbledon will have a "surprise" winner. "Surprise" meaning anyone other than Nadal, Djokovic, Murray, and Phederer. I'll go with Berdych.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

Federer will win something against Nadal...could be a bet, a match...something...:wow:

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Federer will win French Open this year becoming the first man in Open Era to have
won each Slam at least twice.

Hey, after all Federer is the second best player on clay. His back and overall health
seems to be doing fine. He has got a new racquet to which he has adjusted which
will help his shot penetrate. He has a new coach with whom he seems to be getting
along fine. He is in a good mood with impending arrival of GOAT Jr.

Also, after every four years it is Rafa's turn to slip.

The path: Federer wins IW and/or puts on reasonable show which helps him
to get in to top 4 and stay there when FO begins. Stan takes out Rafa in one
semifinal (or else Rafa gets upset in 4th Rd by some unexpected guy such as
Dog, Grigor etc) , Federer takes out Djokovic in another semifinal and then Federer
wins over Stan in the finals.


p.s. No wonder that I got email from ATP asking me to stop fantasizing. :blush:

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

^ If Roger meets Nishikori on the way to winning RG, it would also be revenge for Edberg over Chang. He has waited a long time for that. Actually, Edberg has beaten Chang many times after that terrible RG final but it would still be sweet....

 

[Front242]

Gulbis will finally beat Nadal this year. He's been very close in the past in many of their matches and means business this year. Hopefully

 

[Haelfix]

We'll see another non big 4 player win a slam in the next year, year and a half.

 

[Moxie]

No one outside of the big 4 wins a Slam this year, but that will likely change in 2015.

Dimitrov, Gulbis, Janowicz, and Wawrinka will be spoilers into next year. I'm not so taken by Raonic or Cilic. Who takes the first Major, amongst the outliers? Dimitrov is trying to make a case for himself.

 

[El Dude]

No one outside of the big 4 wins a Slam this year, but that will likely change in 2015.

Too late, Moxie.

Yours Truly,
Stan, aka "Rafa Slayer"

Dimitrov, Gulbis, Janowicz, and Wawrinka will be spoilers into next year. I'm not so taken by Raonic or Cilic. Who takes the first Major, amongst the outliers? Dimitrov is trying to make a case for himself.

Not to derail my own thread, but I agree with this - and I think it points out that to be a spoiler - that is, to beat the current Big Four, who are all so great historically - you really have to be a well-rounded player with an array of weapons. The first four you mention are that, while the second two are more narrow.

Anyhow, even if Dimitrov, Gulbis, and Janowicz aren't actually spoilers (yet), they will be soon, and right now they're not the players the Big Four want to face in the 4R of a Slam. The Big Four are thinking, "give me Robredo/Nishikori/Almagro/etc all day long before those guys."

 

[Moxie]

No one outside of the big 4 wins a Slam this year, but that will likely change in 2015.

Too late, Moxie.

Yours Truly,
Stan, aka "Rafa Slayer"

Dimitrov, Gulbis, Janowicz, and Wawrinka will be spoilers into next year. I'm not so taken by Raonic or Cilic. Who takes the first Major, amongst the outliers? Dimitrov is trying to make a case for himself.

Not to derail my own thread, but I agree with this - and I think it points out that to be a spoiler - that is, to beat the current Big Four, who are all so great historically - you really have to be a well-rounded player with an array of weapons. The first four you mention are that, while the second two are more narrow.

Anyhow, even if Dimitrov, Gulbis, and Janowicz aren't actually spoilers (yet), they will be soon, and right now they're not the players the Big Four want to face in the 4R of a Slam. The Big Four are thinking, "give me Robredo/Nishikori/Almagro/etc all day long before those guys."

Obviously, I meant "win a Slam going forward this year," but you took my other points.

 

[El Dude]

I know, I'm just messing with you

Here's another:

By the end of 2014, Jiri Vesely will be the youngest player in the top 50

He's at #75 right now and the next youngest player is Dominic Thiem, a few months younger and at #94, so maybe this isn't a stretch - but I suppose the fearless part is predicting that he'll get into the top 50. I think Thiem might be close.

 

[Moxie]

^^Vesely won his match today over Sijsling, who has had some good results of late. Good win for the young guy, so we should have our eye out.

 

[El Dude]

Nole will never win another slam.

Yep, you were thinking it, but I said it. And if you weren't thinking it, you were hoping it, which means you were thinking it. His confidence is low, the intensity levels are at two-thirds, he's alienated from the coach who made him number 1, he's hired Becker, and if he fails at RG & Wimbledon, the pressure will grow, and this will affect him at Flushing Meadows. Next year, the kids will be big kids.

You know I did think it but don't think it will happen. Novak will be around for awhile and as Rafa misses every fourth Slam or so, he'll have a relatively easy path to the Finals. I predict he wins 3 more and finishes with 9.

Grigor will be world number 2 next year

Yeah, I'm a convert, especially since I see he's grown a hunger, a passion, and a little fearlessness in the clutch. He'll win a major next season - and maybe 2.

I love Grigor - he's my second favorite player - but I can't go with this. I think he might sneak into the top 10 this year, or at least the 8-13ish range, but #2 next year? I can't see it. Maybe in 2016, but I'd like to see how he does in 2014-15 first.

People are Grigor crazy right now because he's looking like the closest thing to a new elite player, but let's be a bit modest. Right now he looks somewhere in the Gasquet-Cilic-Nishikori range, with the potential for more but he needs to "show us the money" first.

Nadal will reach all four slam finals this year

But he'll only win two. He'll be relatively injury free from here onwards.

You're saying three things first, each of decreasing likelihood. All four Slam finals sees seems possible, maybe 40% of happening. Winning two? Maybe 20-30% of happening. Relatively injury free from here onwards? That seems quite possible if we're talking about 2014 alone, but the rest of his career? That's wishful thinking, my friend.

Murray will retire within a week of Federer

Okay, so maybe I only believe half of them, I'll let you guess with two!

I'm guessing the last is one of those two!