Early French Open Ruminations

[nehmeth]

Djoke is merely showing good taste by not wanting to win that ugly vase at Cincy. It is an absolute eyesore.

Now I know why he skips Madrid!

 

[Great Hands]

It would be pretty impressive if Novak wins RG, the Olympics, and Cincinnati, becoming the only player to hold every significant title in the last 25+ years since the ATP tour consolidated in 1990. Might as well throw in the Calendar Slam while he's at it.

For me? I'd pass on the Olympics. Brasil is a mess, bad. Mrzzz probably could tell us more. I don't even know if they'll be ready on time. But I do appreciate how Nole values the Olympics so...

It would be nice to see him get the job done at RG; then he'll hold all the titles. Gravy would be Wimbo and the USO. Cinci can wait until next year. :-/

Not if he has genuine ambitions to beat Federer's slam count - then these slams are not gravy, but very important.

 

[Front242]

Hahahaha, I think Novak wants a FO title and the Olympic gold more than he wants a Cincy title. Nobody remembers the Cincy winner.

Agree with you Cincy isn't an important thing, a N°1 must have a gold medal in his pocket

This doesn't make any sense. Of those playing from 1984, when tennis returned to the Olympics, here is who has gold and who doesn't:

Gold: Stefan Edberg, Miroslav Mecir, Marc Rosset, Andre Agassi, Yevgeny Kafelnikov, Nicolas Massu, Rafael Nadal, Andy Murrya

No Gold: Jimmy Connors, John McEnroe, Ivan Lendl, Boris Becker, Pete Sampras, Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic (so far)

She only said that 'cos she can't stand Federer and he has only a silver medal in singles. He does actually have a gold medal though in doubles which she probably forgot.

 

[Carol]

I hope all this mess is not going to last too long and probably the clay season is going to help. There are some good contenders which are going to fight to do a good roll and it will be more than one bad surprise for someone and good for others. I can't wait!

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

surely Djokovic is going to win the French open this year..

murray, Federer, nadal all in decline. stan is surely not gonna play like last year again, too early for thiem and the young guns too I think.

 

[Fiero425]

surely Djokovic is going to win the French open this year..

murray, Federer, nadal all in decline. stan is surely not gonna play like last year again, too early for thiem and the young guns too I think.

Upsets occur! The problem with attaining the lone slam missing in a resume is long and dismal; Lendl @ Wimbledon, Borg @ The USO, and of course Sampras @ The French Open! They worked hard to make finals only to have victory snatched from them; Sampras just 1 semi in '96 even though he beat 3 or 4 past champs along the way! :nono :cover :cry

 

[El Dude]

Novak is definitely the overwhelming favorite, but there is always the possibility of an upset.

In particular, I'll be watching (in no particular order): Thiem, Kyrgios, Nishikori, and old Rafa himself.

 

[isabelle]

surely Djokovic is going to win the French open this year..

murray, Federer, nadal all in decline. stan is surely not gonna play like last year again, too early for thiem and the young guns too I think.

hope so, Nole really deserves at least 1 RG in his pocket

 

[El Dude]

I actually don't think it is too early for Thiem, its just that Novak is so good right now. Thiem is 22 and pretty close to his peak form. 2016 is already a breakthrough year for him, and we're going to see even better results going forward. I think he'll make it to the second week of at least two of the three remaining Slams, win another title or three, and could even challenge for a Masters.

But let's say that Rafa somehow manages to beat Novak in the SF, or maybe Stan. I can see a scenario where Thiem beats either in the final of RG.

 

[Kieran]

It's difficult to know what/when Thiem's peak will be. The thing about these upcomers is, they have to win a huge warrior match against a legend that gets them onto the huge stage of a slam final, or even a semi. We need to see them wrestle these prizes off the greats, and not just hang around the locker room waiting for them to retire. Personally, in the Post-Fedal era we're now in, I'd welcome the sight of a gutsy kid bursting through on the big stage - and being right at home there. Thiem could be that man, and he could be that man this year at Paris.

It'll be interesting to see how he does in the warm-ups...

 

[El Dude]

Kieran, that would be an interesting study: looking into the careers of the greats, and trying to find if there was a "huge warrior match" for them, or for how many of them. I don't know if it is always so causative.

For instance, let's look at Roger. His first top 10 win was against Carlos Moya (#5) in 1999 at age 17, in Marseilles. But that was a lowly ATP 250 and it was the first round. Roger would go on to lose to 21-year old Arnaud Clement in the QF and finish the year #64.

Roger beat several top 10 players in 2000, but none at tournaments higher than an ATP 500 and none in finals. He did beat a rising #9 Lleyton Hewitt in the Basel SF, but then lost to Thomas Enqvist in the final. He finished the year #29, so it was a steady rise but not a monumental breakthrough.

In 2001 he beat five top 10 opponents, including #2 Marat Safin in the 2R of Rome. He then lost to Wayne Ferreira in the next round. But then, of course, he had what you could call a "huge warrior match" in his defeat of Pete Sampras at Wimbledon. But again, he lost in the next round to grass specialist Tim Henman. He finished the year #13.

2002 saw further gains, including his first Masters in Hamburg, but his overall Slam results were worse. But he did finish #6. Finally he won his first Slam in 2003, but there wasn't a clear "huge warrior match."

Or let's look at Rafa. His rise from #51 in 2004 to #2 in 2005 was one of the most dramatic in Open Era history. His first top 10 victory was against #7 Albert Costa at Monte Carlo in 2003, when Rafa was just 16. He also beat #4 Carlos Moya. And then he, of course, won his first match against newly #1 Roger Federer in the 3R of Miami in 2004, but it wasn't until the following year that he started dispatching top opponents with ease, including Federer in the SF of Roland Garros en route to the title.

Novak's first top 10 win was in 2005 against #9 Mariano Puerta in the 2R of the Paris Masters. He also defeated #9 Fernando Gonzalez and #8 Tommy Robredo in two different Slams in 2006, and then he broke through in a big way in 2007, including two wins over Rafa and one over Roger. And then, of course, he won the 2008 AO, but then stalled out for a few years as the third wheel to Fedal, before his huge year in 2011.

Actually, Novak's breakout in 2011 is somewhat baffling. I know he quit gluten and maybe had some kind of spiritual breakthrough, but there's no clear sign of him breaking out until he started dominating at the beginning of the year, with his AO title.

Anyhow, I'm rambling, but in just about every case I don't as much see a "huge warrior match" that sees the greats break out in a new way, as I do see a gradual build-up and then a jump from being merely very good to great. In the case of Rafa (and Sampras) it was very quick. In Roger's case, it was gradual. Novak was in-between. But in all three cases, we see a similar pattern of: first starting to occasionally upset top 10 players, then more and more frequently.

Dominic Thiem beat his first top 10 opponent in 2014: #3 Stan Wawrinka in the 2R at Madrid. Then no one in 2015, but two already in 2016: Rafa in Argentina and Ferrer in Rio. I could see him defeating several more this year, maybe on a big stage - at a Slam. That might signal to the world, and more importantly himself, that he has arrived.

Nick Kyrgios beat Rafa in 2014 at Wimbledon, which brought him to everyone's attention real quick. Then he beat Roger, Raonic, and Wawrinka in 2015, and Berdych and Gasquet twice in 2016. So he's already a head-hunter. It seems like he could break out in a big way anytime now. He's on my short list for new Slam contenders this year.

Anyhow...

 

[Carol]

Before to make some bold predictions I would better wait to see how each one is playing tournament by tournament in this next clay season and then to see who has better probabilities to lift th RG Trophy.
Last year none of the experts and posters picked up Wawrinka and look what he did....
I would love if Rafa would skip Madrid but I doubt it

 

[Sundaymorningguy]

I don't know that I have faith in Federer to do big things at the French Open. I suspect he will use clay season to line up his game before Wimbledon. Andy well....I think where Djokovic has to be careful heading into the French is someone like Nadal or Stan finding his game. Rafa knowing his body is on the decline might give it his all to collect that one last FO title. Stan might be inspired to defend.

 

[nehmeth]

Stan might be inspired to defend.

Up until now Stan has felt little inspiration to do anything on court. Maybe the clay will do something for him.

 

[Riotbeard]

Stan might be inspired to defend.

Up until now Stan has felt little inspiration to do anything on court. Maybe the clay will do something for him.

He did win rotterdam. It's just tough to predict with Stan either way, because in the last 3 years, he has put in his best performance when least expected. Stan is like a natural disaster, very difficult to predict.

 

[Sundaymorningguy]

Well if randomness holds he will either win Wimbledon or the US Open this year in his quest to win a slam a year and a career slam in the process :laydownlaughing.

I will say though since his loss to Stan at the French he has become Jaugervic. That loss at the French must have hurt him enough to spur him onto much better things since then.

 

[Carol]

Brillant article about Legends on clay

https://www.thetennisbase.com/?enlace=blog&bg=4&post=Legends-on-clay

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here are the latest odds after the two victories by Rafa.

Novak -------- 9/10
Rafa ------- 7/2
Stan ------- 10
Murray ------- 12
Federer ------ 25

Needless to say Rafa's odd have improved from 9/2 to 7/2.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

After people had more time to digest what Rafa has done, his odds have improved to 3 from 3.5.
Odds of other players in the above list have not changed.

 

[Carol]

There is a long way before RG and nobody knows who will win Madrid and Roma
I'd like Rafa skipping Madrid but it will be just in my dreams because he won't but it would be nice if he would leave early (second round) going to Roma stronger, playing well and getting all the confidence for RG.