Cincinnati Masters 2023, Ohio, US - ATP Masters 1000

[Kieran]

I love the way Carlos is squeaking out the W’s…

 

[kskate2]

Yeah the ranking is interesting. I think Carlos stats number 1 if he reaches the final, but he’s got a lot to defend in New York, and Novak has nothing to defend. I think though Novak was wise to play less on clay, though he was very lucky in Paris that he faced no opposition.

He might have been wise to skip Canada too..

I can see them switching the ranking the rest of the year. You're right Charlie has a lot to defend in NY, but nearly nothing in the fall where Djoke does have a ton including the ATP finals.

 

[Kieran]

I can see them switching the ranking the rest of the year. You're right Charlie has a lot to defend in NY, but nearly nothing in the fall where Djoke does have a ton including the ATP finals.

And funny enough, Carlos is ahead in the race even though he skipped Oz and Novak won 2 slams, reached the final in the third..

 

[Kieran]

Carlos is discovering now that there’s no simple trajectory for prodigies. They often find the less important matches have become unexpectedly difficult, and they suddenly have to struggle, the game isn’t as enjoyable as it was during the highlight-reel matches they become famous for. They all have to go through this, and he’s going through it now…

 

[kskate2]

I have to get my earplugs ready so I can enjoy the variety of Ons vs Scream-a-lenka

 

[Kieran]

I have to get my earplugs ready so I can enjoy the variety of Ons vs Scream-a-lenka

You might need double-handed earplugs for that one..

 

[Fiero425]

And funny enough, Carlos is ahead in the race even though he skipped Oz and Novak won 2 slams, reached the final in the third..

Why is it funny or surprising? It's all about the math! Novak unable to play in the Sunshine Double where Carlos won IW's, then Madrid on clay! Majors are only worth twice as much as a Masters and this is a rare occasion where Novak hasn't won even one this season! It's a wonder he's able to stay @ #2 for that matter! Just shows the weaknesses of the rest of the tour; win one week, then lose early or WD the next w/ the other elites! It's keeping Djokovic in the game!

 

[Kieran]

Why is it funny or surprising? It's all about the math! Novak unable to play in the Sunshine Double where Carlos won IW's, then Madrid on clay! Majors are only worth twice as much as a Masters and this is a rare occasion where Novak hasn't won even one this season! It's a wonder he's able to stay @ #2 for that matter! Just shows the weaknesses of the rest of the tour; win one week, then lose early or WD the next w/ the other elites! It's keeping Djokovic in the game!

Novak has been exceptionally lucky in his opponents for a few seasons now, he’s been gifted easy slams and I’m sure you’re all appreciative of that. You certainly seem to be. Us Rafa fans are envious, brother!

 

[Fiero425]

Novak has been exceptionally lucky in his opponents for a few seasons now, he’s been gifted easy slams and I’m sure you’re all appreciative of that. You certainly seem to be. Us Rafa fans are envious, brother!

Such a snap to win 3 straight majors b/c Novak's draws were so simple/easy! Wow! Funny (Ur word) he stood in there twice, def. Alcaraz @ FO!

 

[Fiero425]

Novak's wiping the court w/ Fritz! This is such a joke; even w/ the brk up Taylor was able to take in 2nd set! Djokovic's running down all his best!

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I know this goes without saying, but we're way overdue for an unexpected slam winner. I mean, we haven't had one since Gaudio at the 2004 French Open, and that's about to be 20 years ago.

 

[nehmeth]

Novak's wiping the court w/ Fritz! This is such a joke; even w/ the brk up Taylor was able to take in 2nd set! Djokovic's running down all his best!

4-4 and back on serve after a hiccup.

 

[Fiero425]

I know this goes without saying, but we're way overdue for an unexpected slam winner. I mean, we haven't had one since Gaudio at the 2004 French Open, and that's about to be 20 years ago.

There have been opportunities that just weren't cashed in! The Big 3 had a mental edge over the men's tour w/ Novak being the most vulnerable to an upset; hence his 3 losses to both Murray & Wawrinka in majors! Ferrer could have risen up at that FO final against Rafa for once! Anderson had his chance at Wimbledon in 2018 after Novak survived Nadal in the SF! There have been other openings, but mentally they just couldn't get the job done w/ an extreme or mind-blowing upset! It didn't happen in any of the finals where "also rans" had a chance!

 

[nehmeth]

Nice comeback in the 2nd. Early night for Novak, 6-0, 6-4. Would have been a way more interesting match if Sinner had made it. (Thankfully someone took clippers to that growth on his face)

 

[Kieran]

I know this goes without saying, but we're way overdue for an unexpected slam winner. I mean, we haven't had one since Gaudio at the 2004 French Open, and that's about to be 20 years ago.

It would be welcome. Basically anyone other than Alcaraz/Djoker winning the USO would be unexpected, but I know that’s not what you mean.

Cilic was unexpected in 2014 but even that wasn’t on the level of Gaudio. It’s become too difficult, it seems, under the totalitarian reign of the 3..

 

[don_fabio]

Nice comeback in the 2nd. Early night for Novak, 6-0, 6-4. Would have been a way more interesting match if Sinner had made it. (Thankfully someone took clippers to that growth on his face)

Novak looks dialed in and fresh.

 

[the AntiPusher]

Novak looks dialed in and fresh.

Just as I said a few weeks ago, Novak can roll out of bed and can beat 90 percent of the top ATP players. As you specified earlier, Novak's B game is good enough

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

It would be welcome. Basically anyone other than Alcaraz/Djoker winning the USO would be unexpected, but I know that’s not what you mean.

Cilic was unexpected in 2014 but even that wasn’t on the level of Gaudio. It’s become too difficult, it seems, under the totalitarian reign of the 3..

I wouldn't even call Cilic unexpected. He was seeded 14 when he won the US Open, which was actually higher than Roger Federer at the 2017 Australian Open. He also had a slam semifinal before that (and 2 slam finals after that). And even if you call that unexpected, that's about to become 10 years ago.

Gaudio, before and after, never came close to achieving that again. (The funny thing is that if Coric would have won, he wouldn't have been a surprise winner as the 3 seed.)

I wouldn't call Sinner or Medvedev winning the US Open a surprise either. They are among the favorites. Anyone outside of that can be considered a surprise. (Nick Kygrios, who has played only one match this year and will likely not play the US Open, is the 5th favorite behind Alcaraz/Djokovic/Sinner/Medvedev.) But if someone like Casper Ruud won it at +4500, can you really call that unexpected with him being a world #2 and making it to 3 previous slam finals in less than 18 months?

 

[Kieran]

I wouldn't even call Cilic unexpected. He was seeded 14 when he won the US Open, which was actually higher than Roger Federer at the 2017 Australian Open. He also had a slam semifinal before that (and 2 slam finals after that). And even if you call that unexpected, that's about to become 10 years ago.

Yeah but he’d no pedigree. Federer has a pedigree at that level. Cilic behaved against type. He somehow overcame himself to win it, which was why it was unexpected.

Gaudio, before and after, never came close to achieving that again. (The funny thing is that if Coric would have won, he wouldn't have been a surprise winner as the 3 seed.)

That’s right.

I wouldn't call Sinner or Medvedev winning the US Open a surprise either. They are among the favorites. Anyone outside of that can be considered a surprise. (Nick Kygrios, who has played only one match this year and will likely not play the US Open, is the 5th favorite behind Alcaraz/Djokovic/Sinner/Medvedev.) But if someone like Casper Ruud won it at +4500, can you really call that unexpected with him being a world #2 and making it to 3 previous slam finals in less than 18 months?

I’d call it unexpected if Ruud beat Carlos or Novak to win a slam, for sure. He’s not in the same class, no matter how’s high he’s risen in the rankings. But if he beat anyone else? It might not be so unexpected, although I’d be surprised if he beat Medvedev. I’d expect him to beat Tsitsipas or Zverev. But last year he faced a younger player who’s just won 3 five set matches in a row, but the difference between them was clear.

One is a natural champion who knows how to dig exceptionally deep to get the win, he’s got the stubbornness and courage, and the other is vanilla.

My way of looking at things is that I don’t believe a player can win a slam until I see some reason to believe that. So for instance, Coric winning Cincy last year was a great result but it wouldn’t make me think he might win the USO. But imagine he’d also won Miami, and lost a tight final in Canada, then win Cincy, it’s proof that he’s not only rising to the occasion but able to win.

I still wouldn’t make him a favourite at the USO but I’d be interested to see how he does. Sometimes players show it at MS level but not at the slams. You can almost predict from this that they’ll never win a slam. I’d say this with confidence about Tsitsipas or Zverev - unless they’re fortunate enough, like Cilic, to face another player just like themselves..

 

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