Saw the Rafa match. His baseline and serve looked as good as i've ever seen him play on hardcourts, and he was returning really well too. I mean, the forehand is jsut as dominant as it ever has been, and he was really stroking the bh as well. Part of that was that he could hit a bit more freely b/c his opponent was outclassed, but you have to like his chances here.
He still has clearly lost a step, but I feel his anticipation is perhaps even better than it used to be, so he's able to hide the loss of some of his old quickness.
All in all, Rafa is looking very sharp, and I wouldn't be surprised if he wins it here.