Brexit

[britbox]

Fberg - if we've got a $54 billion trading deficit with Germany, then I think we would be able to negotiate a reasonable deal - it stands to reason that they would want to continue doing business with the UK.

Sterling would take a pounding intitially... for sure. I'm not saying there won't be some short term pain - I agree there will be... but I'm also looking at the Eurozone as a future ticking timebomb... the UK will be hurt either way, but probably slightly less so outside the EU.

Anyway, as I mentioned in the original posts, the economics aren't the reason why I would personally choose to leave... if it was just based on a common market, I would be fine staying in... but you must surely be able to see where this whole thing is heading - a European superstate and it's the political framework of that which would trigger my Brexit vote.

I can vote but I'm not going to bother because I no longer live in the UK... although I'm sure all the ex-pat Brits on the Costa del Sol and elsewhere in Europe will be voting in. The vote will be to stay in anyway - is my prediction. I would think around 60/40.

 

[Federberg]

UK has had a deficit with Germany for decades that's not going to change. It has nothing to do with the EU.

Yes I agree that a superstate would be undesirable and to be fought against. But we don't have to leave to do that. There are growing forces which make this less likely in any case. The immigration issue actually helps

 

[Federberg]

By the way, I want to be clear. I totally agree with you about not wanting a United States of Europe. I just don't want us to lose a huge chunk of the business we do in the City. I have friends who are still in banking in very senior positions, and contingencies have been discussed regarding Brexit. Moving headquarters to Frankfurt etc. There has to be another way

 

[britbox]

Unfortunately, there doesn't appear to be another way. The renegotiation failed... I think a Brexit vote would actually bring the EU to the table with a serious package at finding another way. A "Stay In" vote for me would basically be agreeing to a future United States of Europe.

 

[Federberg]

I think we broadly have the same goal. Just a difference of view about how best to skin the cat

 

[Federberg]

It's starting to look like a moot discussion. Latest polls put the 'Remain' camp at 65%. GBP/USD has jumped 2.5% over the last week as the market adjusts the Brexit discount

 

[britbox]

It's starting to look like a moot discussion. Latest polls put the 'Remain' camp at 65%. GBP/USD has jumped 2.5% over the last week as the market adjusts the Brexit discount

I think it will end up a bit closer than that but the end result isn't really in doubt.

 

[Federberg]

Yup agreed. My primary interest regarding the outcome has always been about the impact on Boris Johnson's ambitions. I thought he was fairly cynical joining the 'Leave' campaign in the first place. It seemed opportunistic, and mainly due to his desire to be the one to follow Cameron. This is the guy who was advocating Turkish membership of the EU, and now is shouting about hordes of Turks rushing over our borders. Disgustingly cynical. Add to that some of his inflammatory statements, he's not painted a picture of great statesmanship in my view. But will the rank and file of the Tories agree with my view or not? Can't wait to find out

 

[britbox]

I think it will late 50s/stay early 40s/exit when push comes to shove... although I think a lot of people will make a decision late... rather like the Scottish Independence vote which had quite a big surge toward exit in the last couple of weeks.

The Brexit turnout will be higher than the Remain camp, but it won't be enough. There are millions of ex-pat Brits on the continent who will vote to stay in... and their turnout will be high. People outside the continent won't have a particularly high turnout. I'm not voting for instance.

Johnson is opportunistic, agreed... but on a more general scale, I don't jump all over politicians for doing a U-turn if it's based on new facts, research or for the greater good... but this probably doesn't rank on Boris' agenda. The guy is a lot smarter than the buffoon he's portrayed to be though... a lot smarter.

 

[Federberg]

I think it will late 50s/stay early 40s/exit when push comes to shove... although I think a lot of people will make a decision late... rather like the Scottish Independence vote which had quite a big surge toward exit in the last couple of weeks.

The Brexit turnout will be higher than the Remain camp, but it won't be enough. There are millions of ex-pat Brits on the continent who will vote to stay in... and their turnout will be high. People outside the continent won't have a particularly high turnout. I'm not voting for instance.

Johnson is opportunistic, agreed... but on a more general scale, I don't jump all over politicians for doing a U-turn if it's based on new facts, research or for the greater good... but this probably doesn't rank on Boris' agenda. The guy is a lot smarter than the buffoon he's portrayed to be though... a lot smarter.

He's incredibly smart I agree. I know the buffoonery is used as a prop to connect with the electorate. That's precisely why I'm disturbed by his turnaround. I don't believe it's genuine. His calculation is simple. It suited him when he was London mayor to keep a large Muslim constituency on side. But in the wider population those same voters are more likely to vote labour so he has discarded them for a more right wing vote

 

[britbox]

Poll of Polls on FT indicates it's still reasonably close 46-41 in favour of staying with the rest undecided.

https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/

 

[Federberg]

Yup. It'll be close in the end for sure

 

[britbox]

Polls are indicating that this is getting tighter... maybe not the foregone conclusion we thought a week ago.

 

[Federberg]

Yes agreed. GBP/USD has fallen hard over the last few days, reflecting that fact as well. As you rightly said, it was always going to tighten up closer to the time. I still think the 'Remain' vote should win. It really doesn't help that Trump and Le Pen are supportive of 'Leave'. It dirties it up for a lot of people. For my part I'm more intrigued by the Tory civil war that should follow the vote either way

 

[britbox]

Have the Murdoch press declared a position yet? I know Murdoch himself is pretty pally with Michael Gove (big Brexit guy).

 

[britbox]

Yes agreed. GBP/USD has fallen hard over the last few days, reflecting that fact as well. As you rightly said, it was always going to tighten up closer to the time. I still think the 'Remain' vote should win. It really doesn't help that Trump and Le Pen are supportive of 'Leave'. It dirties it up for a lot of people. For my part I'm more intrigued by the Tory civil war that should follow the vote either way

Cameron's gone either way... I think this will determine which wing of the party determines his succession. Osbourne v Gove or Johnson

 

[britbox]

 

[britbox]

Patrick Minford weighs in.... he was a Professor at the University of Liverpool when I studied there back in the day and an advisor to Margaret Thatcher at the time... Now at Cardiff University.

 

[EdbergsGhost]

^^^^
Brilliant fellow.

 

[Federberg]

Forgot to comment about this. Not really a surprise considering he's been saying this stuff for decades. Unfortunately he's an economist and as usual he's working back from a position determined by his politics. Easy to find a colleague of similar stature who'll argue the opposite. But in any case be careful here, this guy was one of those who argued against protecting the mining industry. His grasp of theory is unassailable but when theory hits the ground there are real life implications that he's comfortable ignoring