Beijing F: Nadal vs Djokovic

[Kieran]

I wouldn't bet on Djokovic to beat anyone good until it happens again. He has shrunk away from the challenges for most of the past 2 years now. Rafa in straights or 3 with an easy 3rd set.

uh? Really??
Well he proved you wrong and BP crumbled.

Who is BP?

British Petroleum.

Apparently Novak's victory affects them. So don't buy BP shares or you might be broke, would seem to be the moral of this match...

 

[the AntiPusher]

I agree with you largely, Hunting, especially as to why Rafa played this event in the first place. Can only imagine it was for the money. It's not a huge prestigious event and he has Shanghai next week. Also, maybe this is similar to Rafa in MC in 2012, but maybe it isn't.

Nole got into Rafa's head before - and Rafa figured it out. We have to believe that he keeps it figured out, in the absence of evidence to the contrary. This meant more to Nole, but that doesn't mean we're going back to 2011. It just means Rafa has to play mega tennis with Godzilla sized efforts if they meet again.

He was gonna try do that anyway. But somewhere along the line, Nole was also going to click the W. The effect of this remains to be seen, and I'd certainly like Rafa to cut back on a couple of events he has scheduled for the remainder of the year...

I believe after playing in Shanghi and Basel, if it becomes almost sure that Rafa will
end up as #1 in YER, Rafa will skip Paris.

Remember that this year Basel, Paris and WTF are in three successive weeks. It is
hard for those who play in all three of these events. If you skip Paris, you will have
better chances in WTF.

Also, remember that Basel court conditions are similar to that of WTF and so
playing in Basel is a good prep for WTF.

Finally, remember that Rafa is getting paid in six figures to show up in Basel.

Last, but not the least, Rafa does not have to play in Davis cup this year
after the WTF and so that is one extra week of vacation.

To summarize, Rafa's schedule will remain the same, except that he may
possibly skip Paris if it becomes almost sure (before that point itself) that he
would finish YE#1. If it is not sure, he would be playing in Paris and it is
worth doing so, as finishing YE#1 is indeed a big deal.

If Rafa plays 3 tournaments in a row, he is a real:celeb::laydownlaughing

 

[nehmeth]

Just finished watching the match - Ralf was not at his best... maybe because Novak was serving at 90% and not allowing many opportunities. Nadal sure helped with as many times as he shot himself in the foot with double faults and ill-timed errors when one of the few openings did present itself.

Congrats Nole for abandoning "patsy" mode. Let's see if you can do the same in the outdoors where there is real weather.

Congrats Rafa on your return to #1 on Monday.

I believe China Open is being played outdoors.

You mean that little tiny opening at the top that Nalbandian can't even fit through?? :wow:

 

[Iona16]

I managed to sleep through the match. I'm hoping to see highlights tomorrow. Commiserations to Rafa but well done to Novak and his fans. That is some trophy. Shanghai should be fun.

 

[zalvar]

Despite the initial devastation of this loss (lol), after reflection, I realize this loss has been cathartic for me as a Rafa fan. I've been pretty much holding my breath since the Montreal win and with this loss, I'm more relaxed baha.

Good easy win for Novak. Congrats!

On to Shanghai!!

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I agree with you largely, Hunting, especially as to why Rafa played this event in the first place. Can only imagine it was for the money. It's not a huge prestigious event and he has Shanghai next week. Also, maybe this is similar to Rafa in MC in 2012, but maybe it isn't.

Nole got into Rafa's head before - and Rafa figured it out. We have to believe that he keeps it figured out, in the absence of evidence to the contrary. This meant more to Nole, but that doesn't mean we're going back to 2011. It just means Rafa has to play mega tennis with Godzilla sized efforts if they meet again.

He was gonna try do that anyway. But somewhere along the line, Nole was also going to click the W. The effect of this remains to be seen, and I'd certainly like Rafa to cut back on a couple of events he has scheduled for the remainder of the year...

I believe after playing in Shanghi and Basel, if it becomes almost sure that Rafa will
end up as #1 in YER, Rafa will skip Paris.

Remember that this year Basel, Paris and WTF are in three successive weeks. It is
hard for those who play in all three of these events. If you skip Paris, you will have
better chances in WTF.

Also, remember that Basel court conditions are similar to that of WTF and so
playing in Basel is a good prep for WTF.

Finally, remember that Rafa is getting paid in six figures to show up in Basel.

Last, but not the least, Rafa does not have to play in Davis cup this year
after the WTF and so that is one extra week of vacation.

To summarize, Rafa's schedule will remain the same, except that he may
possibly skip Paris if it becomes almost sure (before that point itself) that he
would finish YE#1. If it is not sure, he would be playing in Paris and it is
worth doing so, as finishing YE#1 is indeed a big deal.

I would like to continue on this theme. Currently, Rafa has a lead of 2700 over
Djokovic in the ATP race. If he can maintain this lead until Paris starts, he would be
guaranteed of becoming year end no. 1 as Djokovic can at most add a 1000 in paris
and 1500 in WTF and 190 in Davis Cup (which will count as a ATP 500 event for
Djokovic).

In order to maintain this lead all that Nadal has to do is to perform at the
same level or better than Djokovic during the next three weeks and that does
not seem difficult especially considering that Djokovic is scheduled to play
only Shanghai during the next three weeks whereas Nadal is scheduled
to play Shanghai and Basel. SO, all that Nadal has to do is to ensure that
his point accumulation in Shanghai and Basel together is at least
the points Djokovic gets in Shanghai. Seems easy.

If so, Nadal can safely withdraw from Paris Masters (with the knowledge
that he will be YE #1 no matter what happens) and conserve himself for the
WTF, the title that has eluded him.

Of course, Djokovic can take a wild card in Valencia and make things
complicated.

 

[shawnbm]

Saw the match on replay--Novak was sharp and controlled the match from the get-go. Rafa was not at his best--he made some UFEs he did not make in New York--but that is bound to happen. The reality is these two are right with each other, with Novak still feeling more comfortable on a hard court. He deserved the win and he is looking sharp for Shanghai. Nadal won 3 in a row against Djokovic, and Nole just got one back. We will see.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Nothing about being away from the big events. Faster court so Novak is taking away all Rafa's time, putting pressure immediately on every service return thanks to the faster speed than the US Open court. Novak can hit much flatter on this surface too and it's annoying Rafa. Especially when he returns so flat to his backhand.

I don't think the court speed made the difference here today. The USO courts were very fast this year as confirmed by all players. Djokovic has played great and clean today but he was playing just as well in the 2nd and 3rd set of the USO final, even better imho, with nuances deciding the 3rd set and the difference at the end being that it was a best of 5 match in which Nadal was able to sustain his level throughout the entire match while Novak had a lot ups and downs just like in Paris which was basically the story of their season.

A opposed to that, today this was a quick best of 3 match where Novak will always prevail more times than not due to him being clearly the better hardcourt player and due to his average level on this surface being better than Nadal's. That's why their Montreal match was so close despite Nadal playing his very best while Djokovic never really played above his average level. In a best of 3 match on hardcourts the Serb will pretty much always win. Let's hope Novak can translate this into the YEC and Melbourne to make things really interesting.

Agreed for the most part, though it depends on the whereabouts of the best of 3 set match. For instance, at Indian Wells or Miami, it's not nearly as much of a foregone conclusion as it would be on quicker hards in Asia or Paris for instance.

I also think it's not just the speed that really affects things. For instance, as you mentioned, the US Open was playing pretty quick this year, but the conditions and balls are different. There's quite a bit of wind, play is generally not as "steady" (if that's the right way to put it). So on a court like the one in Beijing, where the conditions are almost akin to indoor conditions, Novak playing cleanly will almost always prevail over Nadal. He plays just so much better in those conditions. Meanwhile, at the US Open, he finds it harder to play as clean. I don't think it's just a random occurrence that he played better here than he did at the US Open.

Meanwhile, the weight of Nadal's balls is pretty dead on these courts, and he really struggles to penetrate. There's a reason he's historically done poorly (by his standards) at this time of the season. It's more than just fatigue/injuries or whatever.

 

[brokenshoelace]

I just watched the re-run of this match on Tennis Channel.

Nadal was well below his US Open level in the first set but then he did pick it up noticeably in the second. My overall impression of this match was that Djokovic made his performances in Montreal and New York look cowardly and all the more inexcusable.

It's not that Djokovic was perfect in this final. It's that he was sharp from the start. In Montreal, he hit double faults in the first game and allowed Nadal to have a major leg up at the start of the set. In the US Open, Djokovic was inexcusably passive in the first set, only hitting something like 5 or 6 winners. In the second set, he exploded for around 20. Today, in the first set there were no double faults in the first two games and he didn't cheaply give away a break, only to play passively and hesitantly before conceding the first set.

Another issue Djokovic is going to have to address is Nadal's slice to his backhand. That is really troubling Djokovic and he is going to have come up with a plan for handling it.

But, overall, this match makes his losses in Montreal and New York all the more inexcusable.

But the conditions there were different and they affected things. Yes, Djokovic playing at this level will always beat Nadal on hards IMO (this is not meant to be taken literally, before anyone jumps on my back). But as mentioned above, there's a reason there matches at IW, Miami, Melbourne and the US Open have been historically more competitive than their matches in say, Paris 2009 or this one. Not that Djokovic hasn't given Nadal beatings at Cinci or whatever, nor am I saying that Novak can't play this cleanly at those venues, but the task is obviously more difficult, so I wouldn't quite call it "inexcusable." Disappointing would perhaps be a more appropriate term.