To fans of tennis, fans of Rafa and Roger, I'm hoping for a good match, where hopefully the players won't be dealing with injury/tiredness issues.
The participating players seem to genuinely believe that their historical record should be thrown out for this match.
It is true that it has been many years since they both were involved in a match of this magnitude - almost 6 years I believe.
Much has changed and transpired since then. Each player has gone through injuries and other players ruling the roost.
They both seem to have genuine respect with each other and appear as friendly as ever. Rafa went on and on how much he appreciated Federer coming to Manacor for his Academy.
Even the long time playing conditions appear to have changed significantly. Since the Australian Open changed its surface to Plexicushion, Center Court at Rod Laver Arena has mostly played in medium-slow conditions, especially during matches played at night when all the matches at the business end of the tournament has played. This year, they are using different balls and the balls don't fluff up as much and the playing conditions have become medium-fast. That is two category levels higher on the Court Pace Rating (CPR) scale. I believe this has helped both players. Federer has always liked faster conditions, especially lower bouncing. Rafa likes when the balls take off with his topspin and the court & balls are not dead.
For those that like to look at the historical numbers in this match-up anyway, here are the relevant numbers.
Most know that Rafa leads the overall H2H 23-11.
However, it is rightly pointed out that 15 of those matches are on clay and don't have much relevance to the upcoming contest, other than Nadal being clearly dominant on the dirt surface with a 13-2 record.
So what is their record off clay? Nadal has 10 wins, Federer 9. One supposes that's better news for Fedfans for those who look to the H2H to help determine outcomes.
Ah, but what about their record in Finals off clay? Federer has 5, Nadal 3. Finals on hard - Fed 3 - 2 Nadal.
What about their Australian Open record? Nadal has 3 wins, 1 in the Finals of 2009, Federer has 0.
But as has been pointed out, the playing conditions are no longer the same as they have been in past years on RLA, so maybe the historical record there is not so relevant.
So what is really relevant? They haven't play a match against each other since October, 2015, where Federer beat Nadal in Basel.
Both have played generally well in the matches in this AO or they would not have reached the final. They each had their share of tough matches that should have prepared them well for a final. Federer said he has been carrying an hip abductor injury since the second round, but he is somehow playing with it anyway, and winning. Can it stand up to one more difficult match? Rafa says he is healthy, but naturally tired after the match with Dimitrov. But he says the day of rest will hopefully be enough to recover.
In the final analysis, I happen to believe as Rafa does. The past is not very relevant for this match.
Maybe it sounds cliche, but I believe the best player on the day will win and that can be either player, and nothing much will surprise me.
Each player is capable of playing well enough to make it a 3 set match if the other is not up to it, or they can both take it to 5.
The stakes are fairly high. Rafa wins and he gets #15 putting him ahead of Sampras and 2 behind Federer.
Federer wins and he gets #18 adding to his own record and putting more distance between himself and the rest.
Maybe it will come down to which player will feel the most pressure and which player will be more relaxed?
Who knows? Everyone will make their own predictions and have their reasons or preferences. To each their own.
Anyway, I plan to sit back and enjoy the match.
Good luck and good health to both players.
Respectfully,
masterclass
