Australian Open Final: Rafael Nadal (9) v Roger Federer (17)

[teddytennisfan]

Great post. I like the Princess and the Pea and Cheshire cat references. It's a good point you make, although a sore point with Fed fans. The H2H. Like it or not, Roger and Rafa will forever be intertwined by their famous rivalry. Even though this is late-career, it would tighten up the argument between them were Nadal to win it. But if Roger wins, does it make that entwined conversation less relevant? I dunno.

it's really self-evident.

IF people begin to wade into discussions of comparisons -- rivalries --

then the record and history is what shows up.
records and history, facts -- are different from opinion or interpretation.

but whatever the opinion or - commonly termed nowadays as ''assessment" -

it is STILL that an opinion about the record and facts.

and the fact is -- in a ''rivalry and comparison"
roger owns 17 majors -- rafa owns only 14 - roger might have a chance to 18 or rafa a chance to 15

''comparing their separate GS records".
LOOKING at how they came to these records

is a backdrop of the actual meetings - career-wise and GS wise.

and rafa has won 23 to 11.

once more -- it is part of the facts and records.

the MOMENT anyone wades into a comparison .

 

[teddytennisfan]

for BOTH players -- this even an almost DESPERATE kind of match to win.

it is in their late years -- they've had recent years of severe decline in ranking, bouts of - for tennis -- SERIOUS physical setbacks and for nadal in particular very severe case of loss of confidence.

and now -- they are in the FINALS for a RARE chance to pick up where THEY left off in rivalry -- to WIN another major before all future chances dwindle.

it might turn up to be the most contested battle they yet had. whever is left in their tanks because of two factors....which to onlookers -- are the PSYCHOLOGICAL drama of the Roger/Rafa rivalry

NADAL WILL be defending and re-imposing his domination of roger
ROGER will be desperate to CHIP at that domination...
and prevent a deepening of the questioning
of the weight of his career's claim as the best ever.

with the way to it and prize -- the AO 2017 .

 

[isabelle]

Nadal was mentally off for awhile but he clearly has not forgot to play and I think Moya has helped him to remember

Lord Carlos made some miracles for sure

 

[teddytennisfan]

whose patience and composure will be tested?

 

[teddytennisfan]

who will win -- or more likely win -- the FIRST SET?
who will win -- or more likely win -- the title winning set?

would andy roddick beat them if he were around?

 

[isabelle]

who will win -- or more likely win -- the FIRST SET?
who will win -- or more likely win -- the title winning set?

would andy roddick beat them if he were around?

for sure yes, the A'Rod would beat them....come back Andy come back !!

 

[Federberg]

Great post. I like the Princess and the Pea and Cheshire cat references. It's a good point you make, although a sore point with Fed fans. The H2H. Like it or not, Roger and Rafa will forever be intertwined by their famous rivalry. Even though this is late-career, it would tighten up the argument between them were Nadal to win it. But if Roger wins, does it make that entwined conversation less relevant? I dunno.

Lol! Sounds like you're trying to have your cake and eat. H2H is irrelevant. You play to win titles not rivals

 

[teddytennisfan]

Yes.

And yes! I've barely slept. I'm so excited I'm levitating. This is more than a Nadal fan dared to dream recently. Should be enough, but now it doesn't feel like it. Wavering wildly between confidence and dread. :lulz2::hunting:

i hope i can follow my play to sleep EARLY - so i can be alert watching at 3 AM NYC time, lol.

PREPARE the ESPRESSO -- DOUBLE!!

 

[teddytennisfan]

for sure yes, the A'Rod would beat them....come back Andy come back !!

i couldn't help throwing that in. lol

 

[teddytennisfan]

Lol! Sounds like you're trying to have your cake and eat. H2H is irrelevant. You play to win titles not rivals

no -- not irrelevant.

CAREERS INCLUDE HEAD TO HEADS.

that's why players enter tournaments -- they actually play to win against actual players -- called "'opponents and rivals"

they don't JUST WIN THEM JUST BY SHOWING UP - they win them or lose them

BECAUSE of a rival across the net.

and it becoems even more CENTER of the discussion when the discussion becomes |
''who is the GOAT?"
because you can't be discussed as GOAT - with NO ONE to compare TO. \

AND when it becomes part of the discussion ''GOAT? COMPARED TO WHOM?"

ahhhhh -- names begin to surface...

and then ''NADAL" appears in the discussion to COMPARE TO...
and then ''nadal-roger RECORD" rears its uncomfortable HIGHLY RELEVANT head...

so -- u know -- like the saying goes?

"roger can run -- but he can NEVER hide from NADAL".

and that inconvenient little head-to-head record..........ROGER might as well WEAR ''


''RAFAEL NADAL OWNS ME''


-- as a TAG on roger's shirt...behind the neck if he wants -- because it's always going to RIDE HIM...until his grave...

 

[teddytennisfan]

ROGER FEDERER
''GOAT"

Property
of
Rafael Nadal


===========================================

THE ABOVE LABEL on t shirts, bags, shoes, apparel, logos,
coffee mugs, swiss spa merchandize..UN sports ambassaorship..
when roger runs for president of Switzerland..
roger's real estate and hotel chains...

he can really make money - a lot of people will buy - including rafa fans..

it's what's called MAKE AN ASSET OUT OF YOUR WEAKNESS...

AND I SHOULD GET A CUT OUT OF THE PROFITS BECAUSE I CAME UP WITH THE BRILLIANT IDEA.

everyone will be happy -- even mirka. ​

 

[teddytennisfan]

Lol! Sounds like you're trying to have your cake and eat. H2H is irrelevant. You play to win titles not rivals

it's ire;eveant only because you say so -- but WE say otherwise..and to be sure --

in ROGER'S HEAD it's NOT irrelevant.

he can hold ANY press conference he wants even if he wins 18th --

and ALWAYS the NAME RAFAEL NADAL will follow him -
and that head-to-head of roger's ''goat rivals".

if people consider it relevant to tell any player's story that he played against so and so big rivals or famous players

like roger beat so and so --

then it follows HIS head to head against his CHIEF RIVAL in his career
and claims as GOAT -- APPEARS everywhere roger goes for the rest of his life.

i'ts what his CAREER CONTAINS -- right at the center of it all.
and ON TOP of ROGER'S OWN ''GOAT CROWN"

IS SITTING SMACK RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE

RAFAEL NADAL...

u know people like to say -- for exmaple:
NOLE ''ONLY WON over roger when roger started to be older" -- but then roger also won over famous names that were 10 years older than roger when roger was in the ascendant..

like andre agassi (one USO finalsworth, plus a semis worth) -
mark philip;poussies (miraculous he even made it BACK to the tour after double knee car smash operation)
tim henman -- (never really an all-time great back in 2004)


so why should it be said that NOLE ''ONLY WON AGAINST ROGER somewhat over the hill?" --
but roger can come back in the same years and win another wimbledon anyway - or today even reach a finals agaiin?"

that means he's good enough all these years from 2004 to 2017 to beat anyone ...

but if HE was beateN within these SAME PLUS-10 year period - so why question the head to head improvements by NOLE OR NADAL OR ANDY?

roger's wins over over-the-hill andre or mark philippoussies , or nobodies really like baghdatis or ljubicic or most-of-the-career servile Wawrinka (who displayed the same attitude again 3 days ago -- even a commentator -- i think FINK - EXCPLAINED "THERE IT IS AGAIN -- WAWRINKA and that FAMILIAR CAPITULATION to his friend:")

ARE considered by many absolutely undebatable

BUT the wins of NOLE or RAFA since 2004 -- are because ''roger was injured or getting old" somewhere along the line?

tha'ts not fair, u know.

if ALL WINS by roger to pad his sterling career are BRILLIANT WINS just because he is the best ever...and NO other reason -- not because andre hobbled around the USA finals with sciatica or mark philippoussies shouldn't even have any business rampaging through HIS half of the darw in 2004 wimbledon --

then why are ALL WINS by NOLE or RAFA or ANDY in the same years of roger's wins over older, over the hump player -- NOT as completely undebatable?

but nevermind the imperfectiosn of every player's/ career --

sampras for example -- never being much good on clay or ending his career nearly -- being beaten by George Bastl or alex corretja on grass. or many other humiliations. it's all part of it...

or take ANDRE -- who soem say ''would never have won FO for his career slam -- if Medvedev didn't have a tough draw. "

anyone can argue such things...

so why NOT about roger federer? when many federer fans say the arguments FOR NOLE or NADAL in THEIR wins over roger are also good arguments?

and nevermind that players have their imperfections in their records -- but

AS martina navratilova SAID:

"WHOEVER HEARD OF AN ALL=TIME GREATEST EVER whose rival kept beating him?"
and harsh as it was -- and maybe even a bit much (i thought so when i heard it a couple years ago)

"''how can you be called the best ever all time when you're not even the best in your OWN era?"

SHE REALLY said something to that effect.

i think the word was even "'greatest ever -- when you're not even the greatest in YOUR own era?"
along with ''..when your rival keeps beating you?"

and why is that?

because -- against the backdrop of roger's sterling crowns -- 17 , potentially18 majors and amazing dominance and records --

THERE'S ALWAYS THAT NADAL THINGIE..not to mention the EQUALLY legitimate records against roger BY NOLE -- WITH NOLE AND NADAL themselves having a case for being among the GOATS argument..even if they are clearly behind in MAJORS count and other records to roger.

it's just a BIZARRE thing to have a GOAT claimant that has an uncomfortably REVEALING record against at least TWO of his chief rivals and claimants to the GOAT discussion.

 

[brokenshoelace]

On a sidenote... lots of Twitter ramblings on how this match has an impact on the GOAT debate.

How much impact?

I think less than people think. I don't see Nadal catching Roger even if he wins, and I see Novak catching Nadal even if he wins. Obviously if Nadal wins and goes on to have a career resurgence (which I still don't buy although I think he'll be very good for the rest of the year), then we might look back at this match as something big.

If Roger wins, he reaffirms that he's the GOAT, which he already is, but obviously adding one makes it all the more difficult for anyone else to catch him.

 

[teddytennisfan]

I think less than people think. I don't see Nadal catching Roger even if he wins, and I see Novak catching Nadal even if he wins. Obviously if Nadal wins and goes on to have a career resurgence (which I still don't buy although I think he'll be very good for the rest of the year), then we might look back at this match as something big.

If Roger wins, he reaffirms that he's the GOAT, which he already is, but obviously adding one makes it all the more difficult for anyone else to catch him.

definitely ROGER IS''WOULD'' be GOAT

who is owned career-wise by rafal nadal.

it's like a pig or GOAT - it has a tail..u see. they are not born separately........

you roast it, you stew it, you slice and stuff it anyway you want --

THAT TAIL came with the PIG.

OR ''GOAT".

tha'ts how NADAL ''owns" roger is.

 

[brokenshoelace]

From a tennis standpoint, a few factors might make this match less of a foregone conclusion than your typical Fedal affair. I'll look at this at first from a Federer optimistic point of view.

1) The mental factor may not be as big an issue as it used to be. I think Roger is more relaxed at this stage in his career and they haven't played in a major in a really long time, so it's not like he's coming off a big losing streak to Nadal or something. I think he's more at peace with the h2h and has been able to reflect on it rationally (his analysis about how the loses affected him in certain matches indicate as much).

2) Nadal is 30. Yes, Roger is 35, but he looks more like his. say, 31 year old self than Rafa looks like his 26 year old self, if that makes sense. This matters because unlike Roger, Nadal's inconsistency on a point-to-point basis is something he's not accustomed to and you still feel he doesn't know how to handle it. Sometimes he gets tentative and still ends up missing awful tame forehands, and others, he tries to hit himself out of it and ends up missing anyway. Roger on the other hand, has been dealing with that for longer and knows how to handle it.

3) Nadal's fatigue. This is potentially the most decisive factor. He's 30. He doesn't recover as well as he used to. The Dimitrov match might have a huge effect and if Nadal comes out flat, Federer could well gather confidence, go for his shots and have his aggression pay off without Rafa getting the ball back and slowly breaking him down like he normally does.

On the other hand, if Nadal isn't exhausted, he's got to be the favorite. We've seen this before where all sorts of analysis is made before the match about each player's form, how they looked, etc... yet no matter how shaky Nadal looks prior to playing Roger, the moment he steps on, he sees things clearly and just follows the blue print. For Roger, it's the opposite. No matter how good he looks coming into the match, Nadal's game affects him the same way and he looks less than stellar.

In their meetings from 2011 onward, Nadal has been able to, at some point in the match, overpower Roger (maybe the 2011 FO final where Nadal looked quite poor is the exception, but he still won that in 4). The most notable element is actually Rafa's cross court backhand stretching Roger on the forehand side and triggering an error or a weak response, which was something he was unable to do pre 2011 (typically Roger obviously won the forehand to backhand CC exchanges, the problem is he couldn't initiate that exchange enough times due to Rafa pinning him on his own backhand side). If that happens to be the case again, Roger will be in trouble. However, this hinges on Nadal hitting the ball well, which he's been inconsistent with this tournament.

Rafa's forehand is another question mark as it's been very hit and miss. Might end up determining the outcome of the match. If he's hitting it the way he did in the first sets against Dimitrov, Monfils or Raonic, I think Roger is toast. But if he's hitting it the way he did in the second set against Dimitrov, makes errors, drops it short to where Roger can run around his backhand and get his own inside out forehand going, it changes the dynamics considerably.

I'm interested in seeing Rafa's service patterns. He served great for most of the tournament, adding a lot of variety, even on his second serve, but when he got tight against Dimitrov, pretty much served predictably for the rest of the match. This typically is enough against Roger, as Rafa almost always went to his backhand anyway, but if Nadal is confident enough to change his service patterns and do it as well as he's done this tournament, Roger may not be able to adjust. I still think Rafa will serve predictably although it's not without reason, as that service pattern has been enough to beat Roger in the past.

Overall I think if Nadal is able to play his game well, and isn't affected by fatigue, he wins.

 

[Federberg]

You can tell yourself that if it makes you feel better teddy. In the real world pros set out to win titles. H2H only matters in the context of winning titles. Fandom might use that as a crutch if they want but it's all about the trophy cabinet. So go ahead and keep blowing hot air

 

[Federberg]

Good analysis BS. I think Rafa's been hitting his backhand really well this tournament. As a fan you'll be far more observant about his forehand. For me this whole thing comes down to Rafa's 2nd serve and how effective Roger is at dealing with it. It's always frustrated me how passive Roger is returning it, and to me it's the secret of Novak's success with Rafa. If Roger has a good serving day against Rafa and he doesn't return well he loses. He really will have to serve well and pressure Rafa in Rafa's serving games. I haven't really seen him do that effectively for years. Granted the last time they played Roger won, but that was a nothing tournament (can't remember where). All things considered I'm not looking forward to this match. The fact that Rafa came through an all time classic match has the stink of the Verdasco semi in 2009. I'm not sure I can stomach that again!

 

[Carol]

What a (coñazo) pain about the goat, pttfff.
This is the only one!

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goat#/media/File:Hausziege_04.jpg

 

[masterclass]

To fans of tennis, fans of Rafa and Roger, I'm hoping for a good match, where hopefully the players won't be dealing with injury/tiredness issues.

The participating players seem to genuinely believe that their historical record should be thrown out for this match.

It is true that it has been many years since they both were involved in a match of this magnitude - almost 6 years I believe.
Much has changed and transpired since then. Each player has gone through injuries and other players ruling the roost.
They both seem to have genuine respect with each other and appear as friendly as ever. Rafa went on and on how much he appreciated Federer coming to Manacor for his Academy.

Even the long time playing conditions appear to have changed significantly. Since the Australian Open changed its surface to Plexicushion, Center Court at Rod Laver Arena has mostly played in medium-slow conditions, especially during matches played at night when all the matches at the business end of the tournament has played. This year, they are using different balls and the balls don't fluff up as much and the playing conditions have become medium-fast. That is two category levels higher on the Court Pace Rating (CPR) scale. I believe this has helped both players. Federer has always liked faster conditions, especially lower bouncing. Rafa likes when the balls take off with his topspin and the court & balls are not dead.

For those that like to look at the historical numbers in this match-up anyway, here are the relevant numbers.

Most know that Rafa leads the overall H2H 23-11.
However, it is rightly pointed out that 15 of those matches are on clay and don't have much relevance to the upcoming contest, other than Nadal being clearly dominant on the dirt surface with a 13-2 record.

So what is their record off clay? Nadal has 10 wins, Federer 9. One supposes that's better news for Fedfans for those who look to the H2H to help determine outcomes.
Ah, but what about their record in Finals off clay? Federer has 5, Nadal 3. Finals on hard - Fed 3 - 2 Nadal.
What about their Australian Open record? Nadal has 3 wins, 1 in the Finals of 2009, Federer has 0.
But as has been pointed out, the playing conditions are no longer the same as they have been in past years on RLA, so maybe the historical record there is not so relevant.

So what is really relevant? They haven't play a match against each other since October, 2015, where Federer beat Nadal in Basel.
Both have played generally well in the matches in this AO or they would not have reached the final. They each had their share of tough matches that should have prepared them well for a final. Federer said he has been carrying an hip abductor injury since the second round, but he is somehow playing with it anyway, and winning. Can it stand up to one more difficult match? Rafa says he is healthy, but naturally tired after the match with Dimitrov. But he says the day of rest will hopefully be enough to recover.

In the final analysis, I happen to believe as Rafa does. The past is not very relevant for this match.
Maybe it sounds cliche, but I believe the best player on the day will win and that can be either player, and nothing much will surprise me.
Each player is capable of playing well enough to make it a 3 set match if the other is not up to it, or they can both take it to 5.
The stakes are fairly high. Rafa wins and he gets #15 putting him ahead of Sampras and 2 behind Federer.
Federer wins and he gets #18 adding to his own record and putting more distance between himself and the rest.

Maybe it will come down to which player will feel the most pressure and which player will be more relaxed?
Who knows? Everyone will make their own predictions and have their reasons or preferences. To each their own.

Anyway, I plan to sit back and enjoy the match.
Good luck and good health to both players.

Respectfully,
masterclass

 

[teddytennisfan]

You can tell yourself that if it makes you feel better teddy. In the real world pros set out to win titles. H2H only matters in the context of winning titles. Fandom might use that as a crutch if they want but it's all about the trophy cabinet. So go ahead and keep blowing hot air

U KNOW how instant coffee is made?

through dry hot air.

yup -- they take the coffee beans or grounds -- to a receptacle and turn the drum again and again blowing very hot air until all the water is gone -- presto concentrated coffee...

how do you make espresso?

you boil water in that tiny receptacle -- that is tightly pushed up through tiny, tiny holes of a cup holding the espresso powder - and that boiling pressure send it all up -- this water now with the coffee concentrate -- into a tiny pipe inthe middle and it goes out , pours out a little whistle in the center above it and into a receptacle that catches the wonderful espresso - voila

and you see the water is so HOT it comes out as HOT STEAM -- HOT AIR.

where did tha thot air come from ?

the clear water transformed into coffee water --

they are all part of the same thing.

the same as ROGER'S RIVALRY WITH ''HOT AIR" NADAL.
ROGER'S ESPRESSO -- INSTANT OR NOT can not be MADE without RAFA'S BOILING WATER that comes out as coffee and hot air.

you can't run away from it -- it is like a TATTOO on roger's neck..

''ROGER/RAFA"

it can NEVER be roger alone.

even mirka will be spending all her life sitting up some nights from that ......nightmare..that the father of her children -- is rafa's boy......AND IF one day her two twin boys start showing some BULLISH attitudes on court -- she might begin to suspect if RAFA'S DNA was left inside roger when rafa was tearing some new holes in roger....