ATP Roland Garros / French Open, Paris, France, 2019

[Moxie]

You just gave a big lecture to Carol and you don't understand my statement. I am not saying anything about Nole making it and not making it.
All I said was that we did not have to wait for the draw to come out to know that Ralph's projected opponent in the final is Nole.

To answer your question, No Novak won't be there in the final. Ralph win against someone else.

So you don't think Novak will make the final. Interesting. But, no, that wasn't clear from your post.

I wasn't lecturing Carol, and I hope she knows that. My larger point was to the folks that complain about 'easy' draws, when they don't actually start out that way. Nadal's 2017 USO draw comes to mind, and the endless complaining about it.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

So you don't think Novak will make the final. Interesting. But, no, that wasn't clear from your post.

I never opined on that before. Since you asked, I obliged.

So, it is not that I was not clear on what I was trying to say.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Latest odds after the market had time to digest the draw.

Only 10 folks have a puncher's chance (1% or better).

There are three contenders (with more than 10% chance), 3 pretenders (more than 2% chance) and four honorable mentions.

1. Ralph 11/10 (47.62%)
2. Novak 11/4 (26.66%)
3. Thiem 8 (11.11%)

4. Tits 20 (4.76%)
5. Fed 33 (2.94%)
6. Sasha 40 (2.44)

7. JMDP 75 (1.32%)
8. Man 80 (1.23%)
9. Fognini / Coin Thrower 100 (1%)

Contrary to my expectations Ralph' odds have not changed (Keep in mind that there are several betting houses each with different odds; the odds reported here are the worst ones for the player involved. Some betting houses give better odds to Rafa. But, no house gives him worse than 11/10. IMO, after the draw Ralph has more chances than the field and so his % should be above 50). Both Novak's and Thiem's chances have come down from before.

Surprisingly, Sasha has moved up and finds his place among pretenders. A nice ploy by the houses to get money out of suckers.

I have not seen this low number of possible winners (with 1% or more chances). Usually it is of the order of 20.
But, I agree that no one else has a puncher's chance.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Looking at Roger's path, here are my observations.

1R: Not worried, an unknown (to me at least) Italian.
2R Zahiri / qualifier - Rog should be fine with either.
3R Berrettini - A recent clay court titlist.
Might not be easy, but I think Roger will pull it out.
4R Cecchinato/Shortman
I think Roger will beat Cecchinato.
But, Shortman has upset potential, especially considering he practiced with Roger on Phillipe Chartier Court.
QF Tits.
Many people think Tits will win. But, I think if Roger reaches QF, he wins against Tits and then bows down
to Beast (just like he did in 2011, winning against Novak and then bowing to Bull). I am also not worried about any of
the other seeded opps in Tit's Octet, in case Perseus does not make it.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Interesting fact (as of now): Roger could potentially face four Italians in a row.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Sasha might go out to either Lajovic or Nick in 3R.

 

[isabelle]

Nole's draw's not a walk in the park....

 

[Carol]

Nole's draw's not a walk in the park....

Why? because he has Thiem in his way? look the others players in his way, Simon....Shapo (he is playing pretty bad) Zverev playing worse than ever with all his family problems, and by the way they are playing now in other tournament so I don’t expect they will be too fresh in RG

 

[mrzz]

You guys now that Kyrgios winning rate on clay is around 50% and if you take out Madrid it goes well bellow 40%, right? I guess more than two years ago I said he would not win back to back clay matches and guess what, since that, he didn't.

He would hardly make R2, let alone upset anyone. Anyway, he withdrew already. He is a practical guy.

 

[Carol]

You guys now that Kyrgios winning rate on clay is around 50% and if you take out Madrid it goes well bellow 40%, right? I guess more than two years ago I said he would not win back to back clay matches and guess what, since that, he didn't.

He would hardly make R2, let alone upset anyone. Anyway, he withdrew already. He is a practical guy.

Kyrgios just has been withdrawn from RG, chicken shit!

 

[atttomole]

After looking at the draw more closely, I think Nadal has a clear path to the final.

 

[the AntiPusher]

You've said this before. To be clear, the draw doesn't change. Only how it shakes out. Personally, I'd give Thiem a greater chance of going deep than Roger.

Agreed that Thiem will be on the opposite side of the net the last weekend..I am picking Dominic to take out Novak

 

[the AntiPusher]

Kyrgios just has been withdrawn from RG, chicken shit!

Nick needs to enroll in a mental health facility

 

[britbox]

As Tignor said: "Rafa couldn't have a better draw if he picked it himself!" Away from ALL of his nemeses!

All his nemeses? At Roland Garros? You make it sound like a huge club.

 

[tented]

You guys now that Kyrgios winning rate on clay is around 50% and if you take out Madrid it goes well bellow 40%, right? I guess more than two years ago I said he would not win back to back clay matches and guess what, since that, he didn't.

Well done. I looked it up: Nick hasn’t won back-to-back clay court matches since Madrid, 2017, when he beat Baghdatis and Ryan Harrison, before losing to Rafa in the third round.

 

[mrzz]

All his nemeses? At Roland Garros? You make it sound like a huge club.

Did he draw a single guy that has beaten him more than once at RG? No.

Did he draw a married guy that has beaten him more than once at RG? No.

Did he draw a mutant three arms guy with a three handed back hand that he has nightmares about ? No.

Did he draw the Bryan brothers (for a tennis menage a trois)? No.

Did he draw an Australian mix of Hewitt, Kyrgios and Tomic (created out of a machine from "The Fly" movie) that got the best of each of those three and trained for years on clay? No.

Yeah, that lucky son of a bitch.


P.S. And he did not draw Buddy Guy either.

 

[britbox]

Did he draw a single guy that has beaten him more than once at RG? No.

Did he draw a married guy that has beaten him more than once at RG? No.

Did he draw a mutant three arms guy with a three handed back hand that he has nightmares about ? No.

Did he draw the Bryan brothers (for a tennis menage a trois)? No.

Did he draw an Australian mix of Hewitt, Kyrgios and Tomic (created out of a machine from "The Fly" movie) that got the best of each of those three and trained for years on clay? No.

Yeah, that lucky son of a bitch.


P.S. And he did not draw Buddy Guy either.

Is it too late for a Soderling wildcard?

 

[DarthFed]

It wouldn't matter anyways. We are left rooting for a miracle, hopefully the asshole at least works those knees to dust. Time for him to start a family and retire.

 

[Carol]

Nick needs to enroll in a mental health facility

He is a coward

 

[Front242]

He is a coward

Actually, he's a much needed breath of fresh air on the ATP tour and doesn't lie to the media to create a false persona. He tells it like it is. He hates clay so probably he just couldn't be bothered playing and is getting ready for the grass season where he should be a force to be reckoned with if he holds it together. Not likely but that's why I said should and not will.

The second possibility is he's actually been banned by the ATP and not allowed play RG which would be idiotic but you never know with those ATP clowns who are so easily swayed by the media and even talk from the likes of his opponent Ruud at Rome suggesting he should be banned could have put ideas in their heads and they just tell the public he's "sick". Just a hunch but it's not like they're honest.