Are the Big Four Back? (Or is it too soon to say?)

[brokenshoelace]

I will explain further why I think those 3 players I mentioned will do better on clay than before:
1. Cilic is reported to have a faster serve speed than before since working with Goran, thus his better results. That will also translate well clay as well, even with lesser impact like on hards.
And by the way, people forgot that he also has been deep in a slam before (SF at AO)

2. Fognini also has been deeper in a master event on clay, aside his RG QF run, last year he was a SF at Monte Carlo. In his case confidence will take him further. His rise last year happened only after Wimbledon, when he won his first 2 clay titles back to back. This year he has won another small one. With these under his belt, he will enter the spring clay season with much more confidence than ever before.

3. Wawrinka. I am already seeing doubts in the posters statements, after his last 2 events results, thinking that his break-out was flukish. I am giving him the benefit of doubt, because he was injured in DC and took time off after that. I don't think he was well trained before the last 2 masters.
Once he will get his mojo back, he will be as dangerous like this winter and also his confidence will make a difference. Here I am sure Norman will make the magic happen again.

Fog is good on clay in general (perhaps his best surface), but he's got more or less the same ceiling he does everywhere else.

Wawrinka's always looked comfortable on clay. His game actually suits clay because he likes to stand so far back and line up his shots, and clay gives him more time to do just that. He hits so big that the slower nature of the surface doesn't matter that much, since he can hit through any court. The problem he'll encounter is Nadal and Djokovic being terrible match-ups for him on clay, if he makes it far enough to play them.

Cilic, I'm not sure. For a guy his size, he's a pretty good mover so that's a plus on clay, but I think his forehand will ultimately be his downfall. I'd be surprised if he does anything substantial.

 

[Fiero425]

I will explain further why I think those 3 players I mentioned will do better on clay than before:
1. Cilic is reported to have a faster serve speed than before since working with Goran, thus his better results. That will also translate well clay as well, even with lesser impact like on hards.
And by the way, people forgot that he also has been deep in a slam before (SF at AO)

2. Fognini also has been deeper in a master event on clay, aside his RG QF run, last year he was a SF at Monte Carlo. In his case confidence will take him further. His rise last year happened only after Wimbledon, when he won his first 2 clay titles back to back. This year he has won another small one. With these under his belt, he will enter the spring clay season with much more confidence than ever before.

3. Wawrinka. I am already seeing doubts in the posters statements, after his last 2 events results, thinking that his break-out was flukish. I am giving him the benefit of doubt, because he was injured in DC and took time off after that. I don't think he was well trained before the last 2 masters.
Once he will get his mojo back, he will be as dangerous like this winter and also his confidence will make a difference. Here I am sure Norman will make the magic happen again.

Fog is good on clay in general (perhaps his best surface), but he's got more or less the same ceiling he does everywhere else.

Wawrinka's always looked comfortable on clay. His game actually suits clay because he likes to stand so far back and line up his shots, and clay gives him more time to do just that. He hits so big that the slower nature of the surface doesn't matter that much, since he can hit through any court. The problem he'll encounter is Nadal and Djokovic being terrible match-ups for him on clay, if he makes it far enough to play them.

Cilic, I'm not sure. For a guy his size, he's a pretty good mover so that's a plus on clay, but I think his forehand will ultimately be his downfall. I'd be surprised if he does anything substantial.

I guess I don't pay enough attention to understand the hoopla and novelty of picking Cilic actually doing something before his career is over! I've always seen him as a competent, aggressive enough player with a solid forehand, fleet of foot, and good endurance! Nothing Earth-shattering in his game so I can't see that much promise! In my eyes his only real notoriety is winning Queens a few years ago down a set and break only because his opponent lost his mind and injured a linesman; Nalbandian tossed! Other than that, Cilic was suspended for doping; accepted punishment and fine cut in half! Anyone? Why him of all people? What about the rest of the Spanish Armada, Gasquet, Baby Fed, Dopo, Raonic, or Wawrinka our AO winner? :nono :huh: uzzled

 

[Riotbeard]

I reckon Murray would win a title on clay if he bothered to play in these smaller tournaments. So I'm not sure what some of these guys winning smaller titles means. Moreover, Isner taking Nadal to 5 is well and good, but that doesn't mean he's more of a factor. It just means he's capable of being a banana peel for anyone on any given day due to his serve. But nobody would actually suggest he's more of a factor as far as going deep in a tournament than Murray.

Anyway, I don't expect Murray to do that well on clay. His game just isn't suited and he's not in great form. But at RG, I'd take him far more seriously than I would Cilic, Isner, Fognini, or the like.

My point about isner was that it's the same type of result that advocates of Murray on clay use(In general Murray is one of the best, just not on this surface IMO). It's a near win against a great player, and that is all Murray has.

Murray has more than that, in the shape of actually going deep in the biggest clay court tournaments in the world. Give me that over a 5 setter (which was far from a near win) against the king of clay any day of the week.

PS: People forget that Murray had a REALLY strong clay court season in 2011. He pushed Nadal to the limit in the MC semi, came within inches of becoming the first man to beat Djokovic that year in that epic Rome semi, and made the RG semi. 2012 was disappointing for him on clay, but last year, he was injured.

I don't think his game on clay will be where it was in 2011 (that year, he was using his forehand more "heavily" on clay, as in, hitting it with even more spin, and it was working), so I think he'll struggle, by his standards, this year. That still doesn't mean he doesn't have a better resume than many of the names thrown above.

The best player (by far) he beat en route to the semis was troicki. A lot of players could have made the semi's under those circumstances. Give a guy a 4 seed for so long and he will probably make the semi's once with a little luck in the draw.

 

[brokenshoelace]

I reckon Murray would win a title on clay if he bothered to play in these smaller tournaments. So I'm not sure what some of these guys winning smaller titles means. Moreover, Isner taking Nadal to 5 is well and good, but that doesn't mean he's more of a factor. It just means he's capable of being a banana peel for anyone on any given day due to his serve. But nobody would actually suggest he's more of a factor as far as going deep in a tournament than Murray.

Anyway, I don't expect Murray to do that well on clay. His game just isn't suited and he's not in great form. But at RG, I'd take him far more seriously than I would Cilic, Isner, Fognini, or the like.

My point about isner was that it's the same type of result that advocates of Murray on clay use(In general Murray is one of the best, just not on this surface IMO). It's a near win against a great player, and that is all Murray has.

Murray has more than that, in the shape of actually going deep in the biggest clay court tournaments in the world. Give me that over a 5 setter (which was far from a near win) against the king of clay any day of the week.

PS: People forget that Murray had a REALLY strong clay court season in 2011. He pushed Nadal to the limit in the MC semi, came within inches of becoming the first man to beat Djokovic that year in that epic Rome semi, and made the RG semi. 2012 was disappointing for him on clay, but last year, he was injured.

I don't think his game on clay will be where it was in 2011 (that year, he was using his forehand more "heavily" on clay, as in, hitting it with even more spin, and it was working), so I think he'll struggle, by his standards, this year. That still doesn't mean he doesn't have a better resume than many of the names thrown above.

The best player (by far) he beat en route to the semis was troicki. A lot of players could have made the semi's under those circumstances. Give a guy a 4 seed for so long and he will probably make the semi's once with a little luck in the draw.

Except he made it 3 tournaments in a row that year. I'm also anxious to hear the great names Cilic, Isner, Fognini and others have beaten on clay.

 

[Riotbeard]

Total Top 10 wins
Murray has beaten Davydenko (back in 09 at Monte Carlo).
Isner has beaten Tsonga and Federer (both best of 5 matches)
Fognini has beaten Berdych and Gasquet (both last season)
I can't find Cilic's top 10 record by surface, but I am not really arguing on behalf of cilic.

I think are a lot of people I expect to do better than Fognini or Isner... Berdych, Tsonga (although his slump in general won't help him...), Monfils...

 

[Iona16]

As well as I hope Andy does on the clay I'll be supporting Novak and Roger at RG. Novak to get his first French Open crown or Federer to get his 2nd. Beating Rafa in the final would be a bonus for either.

Andy will be announcing his new coach tomorrow. The British media are taking his post on twitter as gospel. They're forgetting what date it is. He does something every year and every year they fall for it.

BTW it was already April 1st in the UK when I posted my original tweet. Supporting Novak and Roger at RG? :nono

 

[Riotbeard]

As well as I hope Andy does on the clay I'll be supporting Novak and Roger at RG. Novak to get his first French Open crown or Federer to get his 2nd. Beating Rafa in the final would be a bonus for either.

Andy will be announcing his new coach tomorrow. The British media are taking his post on twitter as gospel. They're forgetting what date it is. He does something every year and every year they fall for it.

BTW it was already April 1st in the UK when I posted my original tweet. Supporting Novak and Roger at RG? :nono

Got me! :clap

Mind you it was still march 31st here but good gag!

 

[brokenshoelace]

Supporting Novak and Roger at RG? :nono

LMAO. Something struck me as a little odd but I didn't know what to make of it.

 

[herios]

We sort of derailed of the main topic.
There is a Big 2 right now and that is about it.
They put such a distance between them and the rest that it is in fact insane.
Novak has more points than the 3 and 4 ranked together, never mind what Rafa has.

 

[Fiero425]

We sort of derailed of the main topic.
There is a Big 2 right now and that is about it.
They put such a distance between them and the rest that it is in fact insane.
Novak has more points than the 3 and 4 ranked together, never mind what Rafa has.

Well this has happened before, but I'm so surprised it's going on now with such a disparity of points; so many great athletes out there! It wasn't shocking to have Borg/Connors, Borg/McEnroe, then Lendl/McEnroe with others dragging far behind! We even became accustomed to the Federer/Nadal show year in and year out with honorary mentions to the most solid #3 in Djokovic! The men have allowed Rafa to leave the tour for months at a time, then to reappear and take over; shameful really! Roger's getting "up there, "but what's the excuse for these other players just taking up space; Murray, Tsongas, & Ferrer? At least Wawrinka has finally emerged and is fullfilling some of his promise! The other guys need to step it up; same for the ladies allowing Serena to dominate at such a mature age playing part time before the last couple years! :nono

 

[Kieran]

The men have allowed Rafa to leave the tour for months at a time, then to reappear and take over; shameful really!

I don't remember them having much choice about it...

 

[Front242]

^ They did really. It's all about execution. A botched volley and error cost Brands from being close to a 2 sets to zip lead at RG for one. Not that he would've won then but that's a lot better situation than being 1-1 in sets and puts a lot more confidence on the shoulders of the guy with a 2 set lead.

 

[Fiero425]

^ They did really. It's all about execution. A botched volley and error cost Brands from being close to a 2 sets to zip lead at RG for one. Not that he would've won then but that's a lot better situation than being 1-1 in sets and puts a lot more confidence on the shoulders of the guy with a 2 set lead.

Thank you! That's all I've been saying! Many players have been a service hold from winning, or 2 points to break to close out a match against the top tier! I can give you example after example of "also rans" that have allowed Nadal, Nole, and Roger to come back and win; at their worst! The one I shake my head about the most was from a few years ago on clay, maybe a quarter-final with Roger and Feliciano Lopez! He's up 5-2 in a 2nd set TB after winning the 1st set, there's an easy overhead to go up 6-2 at the net, butchers it, then preceeds to allow Federer to come all the way back and win the TB and the match! I was disgusted with Lopez, but he's not the only one to do it time and time again!

 

[herios]

I reckon Murray would win a title on clay if he bothered to play in these smaller tournaments. So I'm not sure what some of these guys winning smaller titles means. Moreover, Isner taking Nadal to 5 is well and good, but that doesn't mean he's more of a factor. It just means he's capable of being a banana peel for anyone on any given day due to his serve. But nobody would actually suggest he's more of a factor as far as going deep in a tournament than Murray.

Anyway, I don't expect Murray to do that well on clay. His game just isn't suited and he's not in great form. But at RG, I'd take him far more seriously than I would Cilic, Isner, Fognini, or the like.

My point about isner was that it's the same type of result that advocates of Murray on clay use(In general Murray is one of the best, just not on this surface IMO). It's a near win against a great player, and that is all Murray has.

Murray has more than that, in the shape of actually going deep in the biggest clay court tournaments in the world. Give me that over a 5 setter (which was far from a near win) against the king of clay any day of the week.

PS: People forget that Murray had a REALLY strong clay court season in 2011. He pushed Nadal to the limit in the MC semi, came within inches of becoming the first man to beat Djokovic that year in that epic Rome semi, and made the RG semi. 2012 was disappointing for him on clay, but last year, he was injured.

I don't think his game on clay will be where it was in 2011 (that year, he was using his forehand more "heavily" on clay, as in, hitting it with even more spin, and it was working), so I think he'll struggle, by his standards, this year. That still doesn't mean he doesn't have a better resume than many of the names thrown above.

The best player (by far) he beat en route to the semis was troicki. A lot of players could have made the semi's under those circumstances. Give a guy a 4 seed for so long and he will probably make the semi's once with a little luck in the draw.

Except he made it 3 tournaments in a row that year. I'm also anxious to hear the great names Cilic, Isner, Fognini and others have beaten on clay.

I am hoping Broken watched today the F3 vs the Brit number one affair on clay. Based on this match, could you tell me where is his"ceiling" you were referring to.

 

[brokenshoelace]

My point about isner was that it's the same type of result that advocates of Murray on clay use(In general Murray is one of the best, just not on this surface IMO). It's a near win against a great player, and that is all Murray has.

Murray has more than that, in the shape of actually going deep in the biggest clay court tournaments in the world. Give me that over a 5 setter (which was far from a near win) against the king of clay any day of the week.

PS: People forget that Murray had a REALLY strong clay court season in 2011. He pushed Nadal to the limit in the MC semi, came within inches of becoming the first man to beat Djokovic that year in that epic Rome semi, and made the RG semi. 2012 was disappointing for him on clay, but last year, he was injured.

I don't think his game on clay will be where it was in 2011 (that year, he was using his forehand more "heavily" on clay, as in, hitting it with even more spin, and it was working), so I think he'll struggle, by his standards, this year. That still doesn't mean he doesn't have a better resume than many of the names thrown above.

The best player (by far) he beat en route to the semis was troicki. A lot of players could have made the semi's under those circumstances. Give a guy a 4 seed for so long and he will probably make the semi's once with a little luck in the draw.

Except he made it 3 tournaments in a row that year. I'm also anxious to hear the great names Cilic, Isner, Fognini and others have beaten on clay.

I am hoping Broken watched today the F3 vs the Brit number one affair on clay. Based on this match, could you tell me where is his"ceiling" you were referring to.

I said I don't expect great things from Murray on clay and he can lose to anyone. But I also maintain that as far as going deep at the FO, he's got a better shot than F3 and he's DONE IT ALREADY. Meanwhile, I said Fabio can be dangerous on any given day but ultimately lacks the consistency to do major damage other than the occasional upset -- and this "occasional upset" has NO chance of materializing against the actual, REAL favorites. THAT is Fabio's ceiling. Or are you, wise Herios, implying that Fabio has no ceiling and will be challenging for titles involving the big guns? Because if so, then I'll just shrug it off as another one of your expert predictions in the past few years (same prediction, different player, depending on who's your flavor of the month) none of which have materialized.

Or does a win over Murray on clay prove that you have no ceiling now? Rafael Nadal, beware!

 

[Riotbeard]

Murray has more than that, in the shape of actually going deep in the biggest clay court tournaments in the world. Give me that over a 5 setter (which was far from a near win) against the king of clay any day of the week.

PS: People forget that Murray had a REALLY strong clay court season in 2011. He pushed Nadal to the limit in the MC semi, came within inches of becoming the first man to beat Djokovic that year in that epic Rome semi, and made the RG semi. 2012 was disappointing for him on clay, but last year, he was injured.

I don't think his game on clay will be where it was in 2011 (that year, he was using his forehand more "heavily" on clay, as in, hitting it with even more spin, and it was working), so I think he'll struggle, by his standards, this year. That still doesn't mean he doesn't have a better resume than many of the names thrown above.

The best player (by far) he beat en route to the semis was troicki. A lot of players could have made the semi's under those circumstances. Give a guy a 4 seed for so long and he will probably make the semi's once with a little luck in the draw.

Except he made it 3 tournaments in a row that year. I'm also anxious to hear the great names Cilic, Isner, Fognini and others have beaten on clay.

I am hoping Broken watched today the F3 vs the Brit number one affair on clay. Based on this match, could you tell me where is his"ceiling" you were referring to.

I said I don't expect great things from Murray on clay and he can lose to anyone. But I also maintain that as far as going deep at the FO, he's got a better shot than F3 and he's DONE IT ALREADY. Meanwhile, I said Fabio can be dangerous on any given day but ultimately lacks the consistency to do major damage other than the occasional upset -- and this "occasional upset" has NO chance of materializing against the actual, REAL favorites. THAT is Fabio's ceiling. Or are you, wise Herios, implying that Fabio has no ceiling and will be challenging for titles involving the big guns? Because if so, then I'll just shrug it off as another one of your expert predictions in the past few years (same prediction, different player, depending on who's your flavor of the month) none of which have materialized.

Or does a win over Murray on clay prove that you have no ceiling now? Rafael Nadal, beware!

At least Fabio logs the occasional top 10 win on clay which is more than can be said for Andy.

 

[brokenshoelace]

The best player (by far) he beat en route to the semis was troicki. A lot of players could have made the semi's under those circumstances. Give a guy a 4 seed for so long and he will probably make the semi's once with a little luck in the draw.

Except he made it 3 tournaments in a row that year. I'm also anxious to hear the great names Cilic, Isner, Fognini and others have beaten on clay.

I am hoping Broken watched today the F3 vs the Brit number one affair on clay. Based on this match, could you tell me where is his"ceiling" you were referring to.

I said I don't expect great things from Murray on clay and he can lose to anyone. But I also maintain that as far as going deep at the FO, he's got a better shot than F3 and he's DONE IT ALREADY. Meanwhile, I said Fabio can be dangerous on any given day but ultimately lacks the consistency to do major damage other than the occasional upset -- and this "occasional upset" has NO chance of materializing against the actual, REAL favorites. THAT is Fabio's ceiling. Or are you, wise Herios, implying that Fabio has no ceiling and will be challenging for titles involving the big guns? Because if so, then I'll just shrug it off as another one of your expert predictions in the past few years (same prediction, different player, depending on who's your flavor of the month) none of which have materialized.

Or does a win over Murray on clay prove that you have no ceiling now? Rafael Nadal, beware!

At least Fabio logs the occasional top 10 win on clay which is more than can be said for Andy.

Last I checked, top 10 wins mean as much as a win over any other opponent as far as moving into the next round goes. This isn't chess. The way a tournament works, the deeper you go, the better. Murray has been into the semis at the FO and other clay masters (Monte Carlo twice and Rome). That's more than can be said for Fabio.

 

[Riotbeard]

Except he made it 3 tournaments in a row that year. I'm also anxious to hear the great names Cilic, Isner, Fognini and others have beaten on clay.

I am hoping Broken watched today the F3 vs the Brit number one affair on clay. Based on this match, could you tell me where is his"ceiling" you were referring to.

I said I don't expect great things from Murray on clay and he can lose to anyone. But I also maintain that as far as going deep at the FO, he's got a better shot than F3 and he's DONE IT ALREADY. Meanwhile, I said Fabio can be dangerous on any given day but ultimately lacks the consistency to do major damage other than the occasional upset -- and this "occasional upset" has NO chance of materializing against the actual, REAL favorites. THAT is Fabio's ceiling. Or are you, wise Herios, implying that Fabio has no ceiling and will be challenging for titles involving the big guns? Because if so, then I'll just shrug it off as another one of your expert predictions in the past few years (same prediction, different player, depending on who's your flavor of the month) none of which have materialized.

Or does a win over Murray on clay prove that you have no ceiling now? Rafael Nadal, beware!

At least Fabio logs the occasional top 10 win on clay which is more than can be said for Andy.

Last I checked, top 10 wins mean as much as a win over any other opponent as far as moving into the next round goes. This isn't chess. The way a tournament works, the deeper you go, the better. Murray has been into the semis at the FO and other clay masters (Monte Carlo twice and Rome). That's more than can be said for Fabio.

I will give you that he might traditionally have a better chance of a deep run due to his #4 seeding (that he gets from winning on other surfaces), that means that with one upset, he does not have to face a really high level player until the semis thus making it considerably easier for him to have more significant semi's runs that 3F and other players of a similar level without actually being better on clay. Had Fognini had a #4 seed going into every clay tournament for the last 6 years, do you really not see him making a good number of masters event semis on clay and probably even one at RG. I would favor him into the semis at RG in 2011, if he had to face the same people as Andy.

 

[brokenshoelace]

I am hoping Broken watched today the F3 vs the Brit number one affair on clay. Based on this match, could you tell me where is his"ceiling" you were referring to.

I said I don't expect great things from Murray on clay and he can lose to anyone. But I also maintain that as far as going deep at the FO, he's got a better shot than F3 and he's DONE IT ALREADY. Meanwhile, I said Fabio can be dangerous on any given day but ultimately lacks the consistency to do major damage other than the occasional upset -- and this "occasional upset" has NO chance of materializing against the actual, REAL favorites. THAT is Fabio's ceiling. Or are you, wise Herios, implying that Fabio has no ceiling and will be challenging for titles involving the big guns? Because if so, then I'll just shrug it off as another one of your expert predictions in the past few years (same prediction, different player, depending on who's your flavor of the month) none of which have materialized.

Or does a win over Murray on clay prove that you have no ceiling now? Rafael Nadal, beware!

At least Fabio logs the occasional top 10 win on clay which is more than can be said for Andy.

Last I checked, top 10 wins mean as much as a win over any other opponent as far as moving into the next round goes. This isn't chess. The way a tournament works, the deeper you go, the better. Murray has been into the semis at the FO and other clay masters (Monte Carlo twice and Rome). That's more than can be said for Fabio.

I will give you that he might traditionally have a been better chance of a deep run due to his #4 seeding (that he gets on other surfaces), that means that with one upset, he does not have to face a really high level player until the semis thus making it considerably easier for him to have more significant semi's runs that 3F and other players of a similar level without actually being better on clay. Had Fognini had a #4 seed going into every clay tournament for the last 6 years, do you really not see him making a good of masters event semis on clay and probably even one at RG. I would favor him into the semi at RG in 2011, if he had to face the same people as Andy.

Maybe there's a reason Fognini never had a #4 seed going into a clay tournament for the past 6 years? And no, it's not just due to his results on other surfaces. Check his results on clay.

 

[Riotbeard]

I said I don't expect great things from Murray on clay and he can lose to anyone. But I also maintain that as far as going deep at the FO, he's got a better shot than F3 and he's DONE IT ALREADY. Meanwhile, I said Fabio can be dangerous on any given day but ultimately lacks the consistency to do major damage other than the occasional upset -- and this "occasional upset" has NO chance of materializing against the actual, REAL favorites. THAT is Fabio's ceiling. Or are you, wise Herios, implying that Fabio has no ceiling and will be challenging for titles involving the big guns? Because if so, then I'll just shrug it off as another one of your expert predictions in the past few years (same prediction, different player, depending on who's your flavor of the month) none of which have materialized.

Or does a win over Murray on clay prove that you have no ceiling now? Rafael Nadal, beware!

At least Fabio logs the occasional top 10 win on clay which is more than can be said for Andy.

Last I checked, top 10 wins mean as much as a win over any other opponent as far as moving into the next round goes. This isn't chess. The way a tournament works, the deeper you go, the better. Murray has been into the semis at the FO and other clay masters (Monte Carlo twice and Rome). That's more than can be said for Fabio.

I will give you that he might traditionally have a been better chance of a deep run due to his #4 seeding (that he gets on other surfaces), that means that with one upset, he does not have to face a really high level player until the semis thus making it considerably easier for him to have more significant semi's runs that 3F and other players of a similar level without actually being better on clay. Had Fognini had a #4 seed going into every clay tournament for the last 6 years, do you really not see him making a good of masters event semis on clay and probably even one at RG. I would favor him into the semi at RG in 2011, if he had to face the same people as Andy.

Maybe there's a reason Fognini never had a #4 seed going into a clay tournament for the past 6 years? And no, it's not just due to his results on other surfaces. Check his results on clay.

My point has never been that Fognini (I did not bring Fognini into the discussion, but he is someone who functions at least ok for my argument) is great or should be number 4, just that we need to adjust expectations of Murray during the clay season. He is no where near the number 4 player on clay. And I think it's a fair point to say that anybody halfway decent with a high seed is occasionally gonna have good results, even on a surface that doesn't suit them, because of the luck of the draw. Therefore, just citing a few semi's runs without addressing who he beat en route to those semis does not inherently mean the player is good on clay, he might have just gotten lucky enough to always be facing players far weaker than him en route to those results.