AO - Odds as per Book Makers

[DarthFed]

Now we will have to predict someone else to commit the biggest choke during the AO. I know...just couldn't resist.

Hopefully he gets better soon.

There is a thread there somewhere: Who will be the biggest choker, will have the epic meltdown this year at the AO?

I will start with a safe bet and say Gulbis.:snigger

That is an excellent choice now that Almagro is out of the way. It will be hard to top the Almagro-Ferrer match for biggest choke. Almagro-Robredo at RG was just barely behind that one.

Who after Gulbis? Verdasco seems like a good one. Cruel game :lolz:

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

Jerzy "How Many Times" Janowicz can be a good candidate too, no?

 

[DarthFed]

Jerzy "How Many Times" Janowicz can be a good candidate too, no?

Yes, and we can throw Haas and Gasquet out there as well, don't Richie seems to have made some progress last year.

 

[Kieran]

I don't know if JJ chokes, though. I doubt he'll be a classic knee-trembler. He seems more an old-style headcase. A Goran. Out of his depth but arrogant and game...

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Few hours after draw.

Novak Djokovic 1
Rafael Nadal 16/5 = 3.20
Andy Murray 9
Juan Martin del Potro 14
Roger Federer 22

 

[britbox]

JMDP has never done anything in Oz. Federer's good value at 22.

 

[herios]

JMDP has never done anything in Oz. Federer's good value at 22.

Roger's odds slipped because he has got the most dangerous out of top 8 in JWT as a potential R4

 

[DarthFed]

Not surprised to see Nole's odds go up. I am surprised that Murray's odds are still that high. Given his draw that'd almost seem like the right odds for him if he had never been injured and was coming in with proper practice/match play. DP and Roger ain't winning, the value here is Djokovic and Nadal. Given the draw I think Djoker has > 50% chance, meanwhile Nadal still has better than 25% odds IMO. There is a good chance he won't have to face DelPo and Murray is likely weakened. The only way I'd put his odds below 25% is if Murray suddenly turns out to be 100% ready to go and that seems unlikely.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Now we will have to predict someone else to commit the biggest choke during the AO. I know...just couldn't resist.

Hopefully he gets better soon.

There is a thread there somewhere: Who will be the biggest choker, will have the epic meltdown this year at the AO?

I will start with a safe bet and say Gulbis.:snigger

That is an excellent choice now that Almagro is out of the way. It will be hard to top the Almagro-Ferrer match for biggest choke. Almagro-Robredo at RG was just barely behind that one.

Who after Gulbis? Verdasco seems like a good one. Cruel game :lolz:

Gasquet...

 

[brokenshoelace]

Not surprised to see Nole's odds go up. I am surprised that Murray's odds are still that high. Given his draw that'd almost seem like the right odds for him if he had never been injured and was coming in with proper practice/match play. DP and Roger ain't winning, the value here is Djokovic and Nadal. Given the draw I think Djoker has > 50% chance, meanwhile Nadal still has better than 25% odds IMO. There is a good chance he won't have to face DelPo and Murray is likely weakened. The only way I'd put his odds below 25% is if Murray suddenly turns out to be 100% ready to go and that seems unlikely.

DP's section is relatively easy. Only Raonic is dangerous so I think he'll be making it to the QF's. Nadal's draw can be considered difficult if things unfold according to the rankings, but Murray is a big question mark. But playing Tomic in the 1st round. Monfils in the 3rd, DP in the QF and Murray/Fed/Tsonga in the semis seems to me like a dangerous path, if it actually develops that way.

 

[DarthFed]

Now we will have to predict someone else to commit the biggest choke during the AO. I know...just couldn't resist.

Hopefully he gets better soon.

There is a thread there somewhere: Who will be the biggest choker, will have the epic meltdown this year at the AO?

I will start with a safe bet and say Gulbis.:snigger

That is an excellent choice now that Almagro is out of the way. It will be hard to top the Almagro-Ferrer match for biggest choke. Almagro-Robredo at RG was just barely behind that one.

Who after Gulbis? Verdasco seems like a good one. Cruel game :lolz:

Gasquet...

Yeah, I threw him and Haas in there. They seem like solid choices.

 

[DarthFed]

Not surprised to see Nole's odds go up. I am surprised that Murray's odds are still that high. Given his draw that'd almost seem like the right odds for him if he had never been injured and was coming in with proper practice/match play. DP and Roger ain't winning, the value here is Djokovic and Nadal. Given the draw I think Djoker has > 50% chance, meanwhile Nadal still has better than 25% odds IMO. There is a good chance he won't have to face DelPo and Murray is likely weakened. The only way I'd put his odds below 25% is if Murray suddenly turns out to be 100% ready to go and that seems unlikely.

DP's section is relatively easy. Only Raonic is dangerous so I think he'll be making it to the QF's. Nadal's draw can be considered difficult if things unfold according to the rankings, but Murray is a big question mark. But playing Tomic in the 1st round. Monfils in the 3rd, DP in the QF and Murray/Fed/Tsonga in the semis seems to me like a dangerous path, if it actually develops that way.

DP has pretty much always struggled in AO, so I think Raonic or player X could pull it off in the first 4 rounds. I hope not but it wouldn't be much of a surprise. Tomic and Monfils are tough matches but they have no prayer, those 2 put the "flake" in flakey.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I think toughest road for Nadal would be via

Tomic,
Sizling,
Monfils,
Hewitt,
Del Potro,
Tsonga,
Djokovic

 

[GameSetAndMath]

After the 1st week is over, here are the odds of winning AO for some players
according to Book Makers. Note that Novak is now less than 1.


Novak Djokovic 4/5
Rafael Nadal 5/2
Andy Murray 11
Roger Federer 20
Stan Wawrinka 44
Tomas Berdych 48
J. W. Tsonga 67
D. Ferrer 81

 

[GameSetAndMath]

After the fireworks by Vintage Federer yesterday, his odds have come down to 12 from
20 overnight. :clap

 

[Goldenboy]

Could someone please paste the odds now that Novak is out?

 

[britbox]

Bet365:

Nadal 1.83
Wawrinka 6
Murray 6.5
Federer 7
Berdych 9.5
Dimitrov 51

 

[GameSetAndMath]

The following are the current odds (after Novak's loss) based on multiple
betting companies.


Rafael Nadal 10/11
Stan Wawrinka 11/2
Roger Federer 6
Andy Murray 7
Tomas Berdych 12

 

[DarthFed]

Wow, Amazing odds to bet on Rafa. His only loseable match is the semifinal, and he will be a heavy favorite there. Wawrinka's odds are shockingly high, if he is favorite over Berd it is just barely and he would be a heavy underdog in the final.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Here are the current odds (based on multiple betting companies) for winning
AO, after the downsizing of Murray by Fed last night.

Rafael Nadal 1
Roger Federer 11/4 = 2.75
Stan Wawrink 6
Tomas Berdych 11