AO - Odds as per Book Makers

[GameSetAndMath]

After ABCD (Abu Dhabi / Brisbane / Chennai / Doha) is over, here are the current
odds of outright winning AO for different players.

Novak Djokovic - 5/4 = 1.25
Rafael Nada - 13/5 = 2.60
Andy Murray - 17/2 = 8.50
Juan Martin del Potro - 14
Roger Federer - 20

Surpisingly and contrary to normal expectation, Fed's odds have decreased
after his loss to Hewitt. Murray's odds have increased after his loss and announcement
that he does not feel it is realistic for him to win.

 

[DarthFed]

Now it is about 75% win for Rafa and Nole and 25% for the field. I actually still think that's not high enough...therefore the only good bets here are Djokovic and Nadal. Murray would be an awful bet at this point, and giving DP and Roger 5-6% chances is about right if not too high in reality.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Latest odds, Novak getting close to 1 (i.e, about 50% chance of winning).


Novak Djokovic 11/10
Rafael Nadal 13/5
Andy Murray 9
Juan Martin del Potro 13
Roger Federer 18

 

[Kieran]

Ah sure there's no point in paying this tournament! Give the trinket to Novak.

Well done, Becker! You just ruined January!

 

[herios]

Ah sure there's no point in paying this tournament! Give the trinket to Novak.

Well done, Becker! You just ruined January!

Oh common now, is Becker's fault now that Andy had to have surgery? Or Roger is getting older?uzzled
LOL

 

[britbox]

If Federer moves out beyond 20 then he's worth a punt. I don't think he'll win it by any means, but beyond 20 is too tempting.

 

[the AntiPusher]

Now it is about 75% win for Rafa and Nole and 25% for the field. I actually still think that's not high enough...therefore the only good bets here are Djokovic and Nadal. Murray would be an awful bet at this point, and giving DP and Roger 5-6% chances is about right if not too high in reality.

You know your betting odds I give you that.. I wouldn't be surprised if your man's cave looks like a Vegas Casino betting lounge.. What's the odds that DiCaprio wins the Oscar for best actor this year for the Wolf of New York

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Now it is about 75% win for Rafa and Nole and 25% for the field. I actually still think that's not high enough...therefore the only good bets here are Djokovic and Nadal. Murray would be an awful bet at this point, and giving DP and Roger 5-6% chances is about right if not too high in reality.

You know your betting odds I give you that.. I wouldn't be surprised if your man's cave looks like a Vegas Casino betting lounge.. What's the odds that DiCaprio wins the Oscar for best actor this year for the Wolf of New York

In UK, they even bet on what day Princess Kate would give birth and things like that.

 

[Moxie]

Latest odds, Novak getting close to 1 (i.e, about 50% chance of winning).


Novak Djokovic 11/10
Rafael Nadal 13/5
Andy Murray 9
Juan Martin del Potro 13
Roger Federer 18

What amuses (and confuses) me is that, Djokovic's odds improved since last reported, and without him playing a single match. How does that work? Because people are betting on him? If so, that doesn't mean his chances actually improved. Also, JMDP's chances improved after one match in which he dropped the first set to Mahut 1-6. :snigger

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Odds change based on the bets people place, based on what happens to a player on
and off the field and also one player's odds will affect another player.

If one thinks they can predict better (and if that really is the case), they can make
money.

 

[Moxie]

^That's what I figured. Anyway, thanks for keeping us up-to-date on the betting odds, but it doesn't really inform us as to a players chances, which is worth distinguishing. As you said, some people will bet on anything, therefore, if they bet on tennis, knowing nothing about it, they affect the odds.

 

[brokenshoelace]

^That's what I figured. Anyway, thanks for keeping us up-to-date on the betting odds, but it doesn't really inform us as to a players chances, which is worth distinguishing. As you said, some people will bet on anything, therefore, if they bet on tennis, knowing nothing about it, they affect the odds.

Odds are not indicative of a player's chances. In fact, nothing is outside of skill, form and results. Original odds are usually laid out by the oddsmakers in a way to entice you to bet, even if sometimes they may not reflect reality.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

^That's what I figured. Anyway, thanks for keeping us up-to-date on the betting odds, but it doesn't really inform us as to a players chances, which is worth distinguishing. As you said, some people will bet on anything, therefore, if they bet on tennis, knowing nothing about it, they affect the odds.

Yes, that is true. You can test it directly. Andreas Seppi has odd of 1000 right now to
win AO. If lots of people bet lots of money on Seppi, his odds will immediately come down
even though Seppi's playing ability has not changed and nothing happened to other players
also. This is because the house cannot afford to take a huge loss in case Seppi actually wins.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

This stuff amazes me and I have absolutely no clue how it works. I won $1000 once from a scratch ticket, and the next day my cat got sick, the bill was $1050...

 

[GameSetAndMath]

This stuff amazes me and I have absolutely no clue how it works. I won $1000 once from a scratch ticket, and the next day my cat got sick, the bill was $1050...

That is called Karma.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

This stuff amazes me and I have absolutely no clue how it works. I won $1000 once from a scratch ticket, and the next day my cat got sick, the bill was $1050...

That is called Karma.

Well, tell Karma he owes me $50

 

[isabelle]

No karma for Almagro who pulled out of AO (shoulder injury)

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

No karma for Almagro who pulled out of AO (shoulder injury)

That is not cool. Watching him smoke that single hander down the line is just incredibly pleasurable. I bet some of those are faster than most people's forehand winners.

 

[DarthFed]

Now we will have to predict someone else to commit the biggest choke during the AO. I know...just couldn't resist.

Hopefully he gets better soon.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

Now we will have to predict someone else to commit the biggest choke during the AO. I know...just couldn't resist.

Hopefully he gets better soon.

There is a thread there somewhere: Who will be the biggest choker, will have the epic meltdown this year at the AO?

I will start with a safe bet and say Gulbis.:snigger