2024 Predictions and Questions (and 2023 impressions/wrap-up)

[Kieran]

I'm sure you don't mean the bolded above. Nadal had a knee issue, IIRC, and the clay season was looming. I know the Federer fans love to think that Roger finally got in Rafa's head, but I'm pretty sure it was too late for that.

It was 5 wins and a walkover. My understanding is that a walkover doesn't count in the H2H, but ATP seems to be counting it:

Roger Federer VS Rafael Nadal | Head 2 Head | H2H | ATP Tour | Tennis

Head to head records for players in men's professional tennis. View rivalry results and stats for matches on the ATP Tour.

www.atptour.com

Sure, it helps Roger's legacy, because he was 23-10 v. Nadal up through 2014. The one guy who beat him the most in Roger's salad days, and when it mattered the most. A bit of cold comfort, late days, but Roger did make an amazing resurgence after injury in 2017.

And stand by for all of this to get moved to the Fedalovic Wars thread. Sorry, admins.

I don’t think they counted the walkover in the final tally (24-16) but maybe they should, to make it look more respectable…

 

[Kieran]

Well, that's one way of saying it, as a fan. I wouldn't say the h2h was "stupid." It's just that Nadal dominated Federer for most of their rivalry. And I wouldn't say that Roger "fixed" it. He just won a string of matches at the end, when he finally adjusted to his bigger racquet head, and miraculously got a stronger backhand.

And super fitness! He definitely had a better attitude in his later years, and devil may care gusto for the fray. He took risks. Rafa was pounding that backhand like a schoolyard bully for years…

 

[don_fabio]

And super fitness! He definitely had a better attitude in his later years, and devil may care gusto for the fray. He took risks. Rafa was pounding that backhand like a schoolyard bully for years…

I'll never understand what took Fed so long to realize that his BH needed to improve. I've read some interview with Ljubicic and he mentioned Fed's BH and how they started to work on it and he said something like, you don't come to Roger and just tell him his BH is poor. He said they studied videos, discussed it a lot and then they applied it on the court.

After all those years of losing to his rivals, Fed was stubborn to a change. Other 2 adapted better and changed their game more to stay on top.

 

[Fiero425]

I'll never understand what took Fed so long to realize that his BH needed to improve. I've read some interview with Ljubicic and he mentioned Fed's BH and how they started to work on it and he said something like, you don't come to Roger and just tell him his BH is poor. He said they studied videos, discussed it a lot and then they applied it on the court.

After all those years of losing to his rivals, Fed was stubborn to a change. Other 2 adapted better and changed their game more to stay on top.

That's what it's all about; stubborness & ego-mania! He had had it so easily after Sampras, Safin, & others had retired, he didn't think he needed to do anything special to keep winning; esp. after taking 3 of 4 majors three times early on! Roddick being his main rival, truly was his pigeon only coming close to beating Roger in a major at 2009 Wimbledon, but choked it away w/ a lead!

 

[Kieran]

That's what it's all about; stubborness & ego-mania! He had had it so easily after Sampras, Safin, & others had retired, he didn't think he needed to do anything special to keep winning; esp. after taking 3 of 4 majors three times early on! Roddick being his main rival, truly was his pigeon only coming close to beating Roger in a major at 2009 Wimbledon, but choked it away w/ a lead!

Did this remind you of anyone?

 

[Fiero425]

Did this remind you of anyone?

Wow! You truly are delusional! You say you're fair and balanced, then say something as ridiculous as this; even as a joke it's silly! I'm assuming (making AH OOY&M) you're referring to Novak by way of Fedal retiring! Nadal won everything in 2010, then in 2011 Novak defeated him 7 straght times in finals stopping his roll! Nole was winning over both before 2011, then afterwards kicked their arses in their primes! Djokovic has had to deal w/ many elite players who are actually beating him at times today; even on clay; Alcaraz, Rune, Sinner, etc.! If you compare Federer emerging on top in 2003 w/ Roddick, Nalbandien, Agassi, & Hewitt on their last legs to ND, you can't be reached! Either seek help or "get off the pipe!" If you're tryng to PO me, you're doing a great job! I used to think you could at least be reasoned w/! This past post proves otherwise! It's sad!

 

[Kieran]

Wow! You truly are delusional! You say you're fair and balanced,

When did I ever say I was fair and balanced?

 

[Fiero425]

When did I ever say I was fair and balanced?

Ok, I gotcha! I guess I was giving you much more credit than deserved! Consider me informed & not to expect better! Thx!

 

[Kieran]

I guess I was giving you more credit than deserved! Consider me informed and not to expect better! Thanks!

Now you know better!

Fact is, Novak is having the time of his life without any great rival to disturb him. He doesn’t even need the love of the crowd now, so naturally he’s rude to them. He got a much coveted FO without hardly needing to turn up. He’s gotten a lot of cheap slams over the last few seasons. You know this, if you’re objective..

 

[El Dude]

Two things can be true at once:

1) Novak's 2023, and recent performance, is truly astonishing for someone in his mid-30s.

2) Novak is benefiting from/taking advantage of the lack of other great players - no more Roger, no Rafa, no peak Andy, Stanimal, healthy Del Potro. Yes, there are some really good players out there, but no "super-elite" with the possible exception of Alcaraz, who hasn't fully grown into his frame yet.

Both are true and not opposed. We can recognize Novak's unsurpassed greatness and see that 2023 was an amazing season, while also recognizing that he's the only true all-time great who played this year (again, with the possible exception of Alcaraz).

 

[Fiero425]

Two things can be true at once:

1) Novak's 2023, and recent performance, is truly astonishing for someone in his mid-30s.

2) Novak is benefiting from/taking advantage of the lack of other great players - no more Roger, no Rafa, no peak Andy, Stanimal, healthy Del Potro. Yes, there are some really good players out there, but no "super-elite" with the possible exception of Alcaraz, who hasn't fully grown into his frame yet.

Both are true and not opposed. We can recognize Novak's unsurpassed greatness and see that 2023 was an amazing season, while also recognizing that he's the only true all-time great who played this year (again, with the possible exception of Alcaraz).

Thank you. At least some can have rational thought around here! It's hard t/b on the board during this period w/ no huge events to comment on!

 

[Kieran]

Two things can be true at once:

1) Novak's 2023, and recent performance, is truly astonishing for someone in his mid-30s.

2) Novak is benefiting from/taking advantage of the lack of other great players - no more Roger, no Rafa, no peak Andy, Stanimal, healthy Del Potro. Yes, there are some really good players out there, but no "super-elite" with the possible exception of Alcaraz, who hasn't fully grown into his frame yet.

Both are true and not opposed. We can recognize Novak's unsurpassed greatness and see that 2023 was an amazing season, while also recognizing that he's the only true all-time great who played this year (again, with the possible exception of Alcaraz).

Nobody said anything differently. Novak had a field to himself, like Roger did in the early zeros, to hoover up slams with barely any opposition. As for Novaks astonishing fitness in his late thirties, he ought to bottle that.

Oh wait, he said he did, we’re still waiting…

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

Well Djokovic is the champion but it will all change in 2 hrs and a half. One day.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

Right now we have Rublev, Medvedev and others winning masters already. I do think one of them will step up to kick the Big Serb in the groin.

 

[Moxie]

Two things can be true at once:

1) Novak's 2023, and recent performance, is truly astonishing for someone in his mid-30s.

2) Novak is benefiting from/taking advantage of the lack of other great players - no more Roger, no Rafa, no peak Andy, Stanimal, healthy Del Potro. Yes, there are some really good players out there, but no "super-elite" with the possible exception of Alcaraz, who hasn't fully grown into his frame yet.

Both are true and not opposed. We can recognize Novak's unsurpassed greatness and see that 2023 was an amazing season, while also recognizing that he's the only true all-time great who played this year (again, with the possible exception of Alcaraz).

Novak has amazing fitness and drive for his age, and list of accomplishments. That's undeniable. But you did just say that he's got all but no competition. Nice gig, if you can get it.

 

[Moxie]

Right now we have Rublev, Medvedev and others winning masters already. I do think one of them will step up to kick the Big Serb in the groin.

Don't forget that Medvedev already kicked him in the groin at the 2021 US Open.

 

[El Dude]

Novak has amazing fitness and drive for his age, and list of accomplishments. That's undeniable. But you did just say that he's got all but no competition. Nice gig, if you can get it.

Not sure you're getting the point. It takes a truly great player to do what he's doing - regardless of the competition (there's no such thing as "no competition," just varying degrees of competition). We can recognize that there were no other titans playing this year except one "baby titan," while at the same time acknowledge Novak's continued greatness that allowed him to dominate like he did.

 

[Moxie]

Not sure you're getting the point. It takes a truly great player to do what he's doing - regardless of the competition (there's no such thing as "no competition," just varying degrees of competition). We can recognize that there were no other titans playing this year except one "baby titan," while at the same time acknowledge Novak's continued greatness that allowed him to dominate like he did.

I'm not sure you're getting your own point. If you're a truly great player, and stay fit and healthy, and you have not much of anyone to challenge you, you're getting a bit of a free ride, in this era, if you're there to take it. Credit to Novak that he is. He didn't have to be asked twice to take a bit of a gift into the SFs of the YEC...and run with it. I have said many times that a mark of greatness is opportunism. See a window and barge through it. But I don't agree it takes a truly great player to do what he's doing now. It's takes a great player who remains fit and hungry. He is that, and I credit him. But lack of significant competition is a factor. You said so above.

 

[El Dude]

I'm not sure you're getting your own point. If you're a truly great player, and stay fit and healthy, and you have not much of anyone to challenge you, you're getting a bit of a free ride, in this era, if you're there to take it. Credit to Novak that he is. He didn't have to be asked twice to take a bit of a gift into the SFs of the YEC...and run with it. I have said many times that a mark of greatness is opportunism. See a window and barge through it. But I don't agree it takes a truly great player to do what he's doing now. It's takes a great player who remains fit and hungry. He is that, and I credit him. But lack of significant competition is a factor. You said so above.

My point is that BOTH are true, and you just want to emphasize the part that diminishes his accomplishments. Kind of predictable, but it is unfortunate that you don't take the middle ground when it is offered, or that you can't acknowledge Novak's greatness without qualifications.

As for the bold part, if that is the case, why has no one but truly great players EVER had seasons like he had in 2023? Why don't we EVER see less than truly great players dominate the tour for more than partial seasons? Well, for one, that would make them truly great.

Even Stanimal at his best was only truly Stanimal for short spells, even just three tournaments. He was really good there for half a dozen years or so, but it was only in those key moments - and scattered over a few years - that he reached "the level."

That's one of the things that differentiates the true greats from lesser players: the greats maintain their greatness; they are more consistent, and have entire years of greatness. Lesser players tend to come in two varieties on a spectrum: the Stanimals who flash moments of greatness but don't sustain it, and the Ferrers who are consistently very good but never really great. Neither of those types of players every put together whole years like Novak's. A Stan or Del Potro or Safin will reach that level for short periods, but then fall back - and never for a full year, at least at Novak's current level.

Here's a fun little stat that PEP is good for.

Biggest Outlier Seasons by PEP - Differential Between Best and 2nd Best Year (Age 30 or over)
+23 Andy Murray 2016 (54)
+19 John McEnroe 1984 (65)
+18 Guillermo Vilas 1977 (44)
+16 Marcelo Rios 1998 (26)
+14 Thomas Muster 1995 (32)
+13 Mats Wilander 1988 (47)
+12 Marat Safin 2000 (29)
+11 Andy Roddick 2003 (31)
+10 Ilie Nastase 1973 (41)

Rod Laver's 1969 (78) was +35 over 1970, but he had several seasons in the 1960s that were a lot closer (I'm developing PEP for pre-Open seasons).

So you could argue that Murray's 2016 was the biggest fluke season. he had other really good seasons, but not above 31. McEnroe's 1984 was so good that it made his other seasons look relatively pedestrian, but he had some other great years - just nothing close to '84.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

I like McEnroe and Safin. Especially McEnroe. He was so great.