2024 Predictions and Questions (and 2023 impressions/wrap-up)

[Fiero425]

Come off it brother, you’re talking what my old gaffer used to call widdle talk. Widdle being a euphemism for urine. Federer was a good serve from winning Wimbledon, but you’re saying that’s not good enough?

For a 38 year old?!

Novak has enough records for losing GS finals, he won’t be caught on that one..

It was a great achievement, but as I keep saying, 10-20 years down the line, NO ONE WILL CARE! It's all about winning, majors, & weeks @ #1! Anything will satisfy a Fed fan for the time being; even making finals to the last! More power to you! I said I was on that bandwagon of deifying Federer, but he ticked me off staying on the tour too long! He picked up those 3 extra majors late, but IMO it just wasn't worth it! He was still passed by 2 other players that OWN him lock, stock, & barrel! Alcaraz has a chance to captivate me, but his arrogance has started so early! He hasn't proved enough to puff up his chest as much as he does! He's been tamed by Sinner, Medvedev, & an old man in Djokovic! He needs humbling or I might not have anyone to root for outside Rune in a few years!

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

Yes Roger at 38 was way superior to anyone at 36.

 

[Kieran]

It was a great achievement, but as I keep saying, 10-20 years down the line, NO ONE WILL CARE! It's all about winning, majors, & weeks @ #1! Anything will satisfy a Fed fan for the time being; even making finals to the last! More power to you! I said I was on that bandwagon of deifying Federer, but he ticked me off staying on the tour too long! He picked up those 3 extra majors late, but IMO it just wasn't worth it! He was still passed by 2 other players that OWN him lock, stock, & barrel! Alcaraz has a chance to captivate me, but his arrogance has started so early! He hasn't proved enough to puff up his chest as much as he does! He's been tamed by Sinner, Medvedev, & an old man in Djokovic! He needs humbling or I might not have anyone to root for outside Rune in a few years!

Yeah yeah yeah. You used to be a Federer fan then Djoker start winning and like 90% of his current fan base you scraped your knees clambering aboard the bandwagon. Ten years from now you’ll be emoji-ing on behalf of some other young successful buck while cockily reminding us all what a [fill in the blanks] Djoker is.

It isn’t all about winning and setting records. If it is, you probably think Borg and Sampras played in vain…

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

I get that Djokovic has all the records and he is the king of tennis.

I was only referring to Federer's win in 2017 AO final as it was a fun moment for all Federer fans. I wasn't comparing him to Djokovic at all.

 

[Kieran]

I get that Djokovic has all the records and he is the king of tennis.

I was only referring to Federer's win in 2017 AO final as it was a fun moment for all Federer fans. I wasn't comparing him to Djokovic at all.

It was Federer’s greatest match, far as I can recall. Hadn’t beaten Rafa at a slam since 2007, had lost 3 times against him in Oz, getting progressively further away each time: 5 sets in 2009, 4 in 2012, 3 in 2014. It was a shock to everyone, I think..

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

It was Federer’s greatest match, far as I can recall. Hadn’t beaten Rafa at a slam since 2007, had lost 3 times against him in Oz, getting progressively further away each time: 5 sets in 2009, 4 in 2012, 3 in 2014. It was a shock to everyone, I think..

when I think about it now it's stranger than ever...

 

[Kieran]

when I think about it now it's stranger than ever...

It was very strange for us Rafa fans

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

It was very strange for us Rafa fans

I don't blame you.

Federer was old and seeded #17. Even a donkey would bet against him, especially in the light of the history.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

Federer would go on to win 5 matches against Rafa that year.

 

[El Dude]

I sometimes just have a problem w/ a champion hanging on too long! Just b/c they school some kids, it seems to be ok! I'm one that wished Fed left early unlike someone like Connors that lived off a good run at the USO to sustain and justify dropping tourneys & matches to "also rans," WC, qualifiers, & other no names outside the top elite! IMO JC was taking up a spot in the draw for someone more worthy and maybe deserving of an opportunity! The same is going on now w/ Murray! He's getting all he got out of all those WC, but still hasn't done much of anything outside of upsetting a kid or 2, then summarily getting drubbed later b/c he took over 3 or 4 hours to win a match that was probably gifted at the end! Defensive tennis by him is only entertaining for so long!

You would have hated tennis before the Open Era, then. Players regularly hung around into their 40s and even 50s, playing one or two tournaments a year. Consider:

Nobody remembers Josiah Ritchie, both because he was born in 1870 but also because he never won a Slam. But he was one of the top players in the 1900s, stopped playing four four years in 1915-18 (his mid-to-late 40s) then came back in 1919 and played a basically full schedule into the late 20s (and his late 50s)--even winning a Masters equivalent in 1922 at age 51--and then played tournaments as late as 1939 at age 68! Oh, he won his first match (but it was pretty low level competition). Jean Borotra is another guy who played into his 60s.

I don't know if anyone played a tournament that late, but lots of guys played into their late 40s and even 50s: Bill Tilden, Henri Cochet, Jaroslav Drobny, Pancho Segura, Fred Perry, etc. For the most part, once they got into their mid 40s or so, it was only a tournament or two a year, but they'd be playing in the regular amateur or pro tours.

I mean, it would sort of be like if Andre Agassi (now 53) had continued to play a full schedule for another 5-10 years, and then one or two tournaments a year until the present. Or even Becker or Edberg still hanging around. I'd say that would be kind of fun to see.

Of course the game is different now, and old guys wouldn't be able to keep pace with the pups. But still, it would be kind of fun to see Roger play Wimbledon and Basel for another 10 years. Oh wait, maybe not.

 

[El Dude]

Federer would go on to win 5 matches against Rafa that year.

Actually 4. He won five in a row, going back to Basel in 2015. Rafa chickened out and withdrew before being humiliated again at Indian Wells in 2019. And then, of course, Rafa beat Roger at Roland Garros, which was the only place he could beat him over those last five years. Roger got the last laugh at Wimbledon in 2019, which is forgotten due to his painful loss to Novak.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

Actually 4. He won five in a row, going back to Basel in 2015. Rafa chickened out and withdrew before being humiliated again at Indian Wells in 2019. And then, of course, Rafa beat Roger at Roland Garros, which was the only place he could beat him over those last five years. Roger got the last laugh at Wimbledon in 2019, which is forgotten due to his painful loss to Novak.

I remember that win too. It was important. Those 6 wins were important for his legacy.

 

[Moxie]

Actually 4. He won five in a row, going back to Basel in 2015. Rafa chickened out and withdrew before being humiliated again at Indian Wells in 2019. And then, of course, Rafa beat Roger at Roland Garros, which was the only place he could beat him over those last five years. Roger got the last laugh at Wimbledon in 2019, which is forgotten due to his painful loss to Novak.

I'm sure you don't mean the bolded above. Nadal had a knee issue, IIRC, and the clay season was looming. I know the Federer fans love to think that Roger finally got in Rafa's head, but I'm pretty sure it was too late for that.

I remember that win too. It was important. Those 6 wins were important for his legacy.

It was 5 wins and a walkover. My understanding is that a walkover doesn't count in the H2H, but ATP seems to be counting it:

Roger Federer VS Rafael Nadal | Head 2 Head | H2H | ATP Tour | Tennis

Head to head records for players in men's professional tennis. View rivalry results and stats for matches on the ATP Tour.

www.atptour.com

Sure, it helps Roger's legacy, because he was 23-10 v. Nadal up through 2014. The one guy who beat him the most in Roger's salad days, and when it mattered the most. A bit of cold comfort, late days, but Roger did make an amazing resurgence after injury in 2017.

And stand by for all of this to get moved to the Fedalovic Wars thread. Sorry, admins.

 

[Moxie]

TOP 5 BIGGEST QUESTIONS OF 2024 (MEN'S TENNIS)

In no particular order...

How will Rafa return? This is especially important for clay season, as I don't expect him to do much early on...just getting back into the pace of things. We haven't really seen a great player miss a full year in, well, I don't know how long. The best player in recent decades who missed that much time at once is probably Del Potro; literally no all-time great missed a full year at once in the Open Era - not even Agassi in '97 or McEnroe in '86. So for Rafa, at 37 years old, it is a bit like jumping on a moving train. If anyone can do it, he can, but it is a tall order.

Agreed. I love your "jumping on a moving train" metaphor. Rafa is a great warrior, and he will look to peak for clay, and maybe the OG. But even he isn't sure what he has left.

Will Holger Rune (ever) put it all together? I've gone on record as saying I like Holger's upside as much or even more than Alcaraz's. It is not that I think he has a legit chance of a better career, but that I see a peak level that is reminiscent of Stanimal - just ferocious. Funny how he had those dust-ups with Stan. Anyhow, if he ever figures out how to harness his power, he's going to be the most feared player on tour. If not, well, he might be relegated to erratic spoiler.

I definitely hope it's too early to relegate Rune to "erratic spoiler" status. I say that he will pull it together in 2024. At least to some extent. He's young, and seems to have the ambition. Without the feeling of it being "owed," like Tsitsipas and Zverev, IMO.

Does Carlos Alcaraz have another gear (and if so, will he unlock it in 2024)? I think he does, but in conversations about his blossoming greatness, the specter of Lleyton Hewitt has been mentioned. The pesky Aussie wasn't a fluke - he was a legit elite player for half a decade or so whose peak just happened to fall on a weak part of tennis history, between the reigns of Sampras and Federer. But despite winning his only two Slams and Tour Finals in 2001-02, and adding a Masters in 2003, he didn't really start declining until 2006, it is just that the game passed him by: Roger and then Rafa were just so much better. I don't think Carlos will be another Hewitt - he's already better than Lleyton ever was - but until we see that stratospheric level, he might end up more in the Edberg/Becker class than the Lendl/Sampras class (not to mention Big Three class). But time will tell and we'll know more a year from now.

I'm not clear that Alacaraz needs another gear. He's still young and harnessing his talents and energies. He's 20 and has 2 Majors on 2 surfaces. He beat Novak at Wimbledon, FFS. I think we both know he's better than Hewitt, as you say. I think he's still all upside.

How much better will Jannik Sinner get? If the Next Gen Big Three was Medvedev-Zverev-Tsitsipas (or Thiem), then the Millenial Big Three is looking like Alcaraz-Rune-Sinner. I have pointed out how Jannik's rise in Elo is almost exactly the same as Roger Federer's at the same age, who was a late bloomer relative to Nadal and Djokovic. But unlike those two, for Roger it came together all at once. Roger's rise in 2001-03 was relatively slow and his results inconsistent; but then he supernova-ed in 2004. Jannik will be the same age in 2024 as Roger was in 2004. Now I'm not saying that Jannik is going to be anywhere as good as Roger, just that he's a similar sort of player in terms of developmental arc, and over the last half year, things really seemed to come together for him. Consider that since from Wimbledon on, he was 29-5 (ignoring walkovers), an 85.3%...which is a prime year from the Big Three. If he maintains that level for all of 2024, he's a #1 candidate.

I think we've seen the blossoming of Sinner. I expect him to carry on at the top of the game. He and Alcaraz are a rivalry in the making, and the Italian has the clear advantage.

Will Novak start slipping? He's shown literally no signs of that...or rather, only moments where the best of the young group (Alcaraz, Rune/Sinner/Medvedev in a good moment) hold muster.

Not "literally" no signs, though I take your point that he seems to be in tiptop shape, most of the time. But I would say that the Wimbledon final this year was an example of slipping. We can discuss again why he lost that match, and how Alcaraz was the better player, but one of his old coaches, and some fans said "It wasn't Novak." Well, in fact, it WAS Novak on the court that day, and part of that was getting older.

But Father Time and all. Novak will turn 37 next year, which is what Roger turned in 2018, the last year he won a Slam. Unlike Roger, Novak doesn't have equals 5-6 years his junior to contend with - just a wild and woolly pack of lesser Next Genners and rising Millennials. But with his 2023 season--which I rank as the third best of his career after only 2011 and 2015 (though much closer to his other peak years of 2012-14, 2016, and 2021 than those two historic seasons)

Exactly. He doesn't have the same competition to deal with. This is the 3rd best year of his career? You just explained why.

--he enters 2024 as, still, the player to beat, a half step ahead of that Alcaraz kid. So while I don't foresee a sharp decline in 2024, it could be the year that he's finally dethroned. Meaning, a year from now will we finally be able to say for the first time since 2003, that one of the Big Three is not the best player in the world?

While Djokovic still can look formidable, it will be about the competition if they can't take him out, at 37.

There are other questions and players to consider -- how good is this Ben Shelton kid? With his Basel title, did FAA right the ship? What is the upside of Arthur Fils? Etc. But the above five are the biggest in terms of potential impact, depending upon how they're answered.

I would add the question if tennis is going to cave to Saudi money.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

I'm sure you don't mean the bolded above. Nadal had a knee issue, IIRC, and the clay season was looming. I know the Federer fans love to think that Roger finally got in Rafa's head, but I'm pretty sure it was too late for that.

It was 5 wins and a walkover. My understanding is that a walkover doesn't count in the H2H, but ATP seems to be counting it:

Roger Federer VS Rafael Nadal | Head 2 Head | H2H | ATP Tour | Tennis

Head to head records for players in men's professional tennis. View rivalry results and stats for matches on the ATP Tour.

www.atptour.com

Sure, it helps Roger's legacy, because he was 23-10 v. Nadal up through 2014. The one guy who beat him the most in Roger's salad days, and when it mattered the most. A bit of cold comfort, late days, but Roger did make an amazing resurgence after injury in 2017.

And stand by for all of this to get moved to the Fedalovic Wars thread. Sorry, admins.

Let me know where I am making a mistake.

Basel 2015, Federer.
AO 2017, Federer.
Indian Wells 2017, Federer.
Miami 2017, Federer.
Shanghai 2017, Federer.
Wimbledon 2019, Federer.

The only match Rafa won with Roger was in RG 2019.

It was 23-16 in the end.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

Federer's resume kept being stupid for his h2h with Rafa which was fixed to some extent later.

 

[Moxie]

Let me know where I am making a mistake.

Basel 2015, Federer.
AO 2017, Federer.
Indian Wells 2017, Federer.
Miami 2017, Federer.
Shanghai 2017, Federer.
Wimbledon 2019, Federer.

The only match Rafa won with Roger was in RG 2019.

It was 23-16 in the end.

No, that's what I get, too.

 

[Moxie]

Federer's resume kept being stupid for his h2h with Rafa which was fixed to some extent later.

Well, that's one way of saying it, as a fan. I wouldn't say the h2h was "stupid." It's just that Nadal dominated Federer for most of their rivalry. And I wouldn't say that Roger "fixed" it. He just won a string of matches at the end, when he finally adjusted to his bigger racquet head, and miraculously got a stronger backhand.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

Well I think Federer was able to turn things around with Rafa after 2014. For a guy who had been losing so much it was a great turnaround to win 6 of the last 7 matches including two grand slam matches. Federer looked more nice and crisp at 35/36/37 than Rafa did at 30/31/32. His body was younger and his legs were better. It was like the older guy biologically had more youth in him. I don't mean to demean Rafa's art but Federer just got better as the two aged.

Rafa looked down and out during that period save the French Open match.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

Having said that I admire Rafa for all the things he is.