2023 US Open F: Djokovic vs. Medvedev

[Kieran]

I expect a good match. All but certainly the roof will be closed, so at least the elements won't be a factor.

If this is the case, it benefits one of them, I just don’t know which one!

 

[rafanoy1992]

One more thing: I do not see it too much from this forum (which is a very good thing), but I don‘t like on what some analysts or fans have said about the 2021 US Open Final: Well, Djokovic was tired or was feeling pressure due to the CYGS and etc…

What they somewhat failed to realize is that Medvedev still needed to execute and win the match. It was not as simple as “Oh, Medvedev just needed to show up or something.”

It just ironic that when a player can’t beat a great player on the ropes, then some fans scrutinize that play for not executing or finishing the job.

At the same time, if the same player actually beat the great player on the ropes, then the same fans will say, ”Oh because the great player was tired or spent a lot of hours and etc..”

It is why what Medvedev did in the 2021 US Open final was impressive AND what Tsitsipas did in the 2021 RG Final was disappointing. Both players got an exhausted Djokovic in the final. One player executed the plan and the other player choked a two set lead.

 

[Kieran]

One more thing: I do not see it too much from this forum (which is a very good thing), but I don‘t like on what some analysts or fans have said about the 2021 US Open Final: Well, Djokovic was tired or was feeling pressure due to the CYGS and etc…

What they somewhat failed to realize is that Medvedev still needed to execute and win the match. It was not as simple as “Oh, Medvedev just needed to show up or something.”

It just ironic that when a player can’t beat a great player on the ropes, then some fans scrutinize that play for not executing or finishing the job.

At the same time, if the same player actually beat the great player on the ropes, then the same fans will say, ”Oh because the great player was tired or spent a lot of hours and etc..”

It is why what Medvedev did in the 2021 US Open final was impressive AND what Tsitsipas did in the 2021 RG Final was disappointing. Both players got an exhausted Djokovic in the final. One player executed the plan and the other player choked a two set lead.

This is true, and a lot depends on which Danii turns up tonight. He’s been in 4 slam finals and he’s played great in 3 of them. The disappointment was in Australia in 2020, I think it was, when he gifted the match to Novak by imploding. And this, by the way, is what I was referring to in my opening comments on this match, looking at how many slams Novak has gained by basically just showing up. This is similar to Roger at the start of the Big 3’s accumulation of titles. There is no universe imaginable where Ruud, Tsitsipas, Kyrgios, Berretini are challengers in a slam final against one of the 3, unless the better player is handicapped in some way. They might be dangerous in the earlier rounds because they’ve nothing to lose, but flash a silver trophy at them and they tremble with fear.

Danii has a lot going for him, and now the suggestion is made that the roof might be closed, I wonder if this will help or hinder him? Definitely will help his serve but Novak might be flashier in the rally.

 

[atttomole]

This is true, and a lot depends on which Danii turns up tonight. He’s been in 4 slam finals and he’s played great in 3 of them. The disappointment was in Australia in 2020, I think it was, when he gifted the match to Novak by imploding. And this, by the way, is what I was referring to in my opening comments on this match, looking at how many slams Novak has gained by basically just showing up. This is similar to Roger at the start of the Big 3’s accumulation of titles. There is no universe imaginable where Ruud, Tsitsipas, Kyrgios, Berretini are challengers in a slam final against one of the 3, unless the better player is handicapped in some way. They might be dangerous in the earlier rounds because they’ve nothing to lose, but flash a silver trophy at them and they tremble with fear.

Danii has a lot going for him, and now the suggestion is made that the roof might be closed, I wonder if this will help or hinder him? Definitely will help his serve but Novak might be flashier in the rally.

I think Djokovic wins. It will be a tough match though. Djokovic has the best all round game of the big 3, which is maybe why he seems to just show up and win. Like at the AO 2019 final, where he romped.

It’s unbelievable that Djokovic has only 3 US Open titles, considering how good his hard court game is. He has a game for all surfaces and should have won more titles, even at RG. The same reasoning applies to Roger, who had an all court game.

Medvedev has a chance as well. If he takes the first set, he can win the match. There is also a possibility that he might gift the match like he did at the AO against Nadal, at 2-0 up.

 

[don_fabio]

Medvedev has a chance as well. If he takes the first set, he can win the match. There is also a possibility that he might gift the match like he did at the AO against Nadal, at 2-0 up.

It's the new found belief from Daniil that worries me. He was so focused against Alcaraz until the last game when he served for the match and played one of the best matches of his career. He overcome a lot mentally and game wise. If the match had gone to 5th set, who knows how it would have unfolded, probably Carlos would have an edge.

 

[atttomole]

It's the new found belief from Daniil that worries me. He was so focused against Alcaraz until the last game when he served for the match and played one of the best matches of his career. He overcome a lot mentally and game wise. If the match had gone to 5th set, who knows how it would have unfolded, probably Carlos would have an edge.

True. If the match against Carlito had gone to 5, Carlito mostly likely would have won. Medvedev had a meltdown at AO 2022 with a 2 set lead. Djokovic has to return serve well if he wants to win.

 

[Kieran]

True. If the match against Carlito had gone to 5, Carlito mostly likely would have won. Medvedev had a meltdown at AO 2022 with a 2 set lead. Djokovic has to return serve well if he wants to win.

Well, it wasn’t really a meltdown, the last four sets of that one were close. Touch and go to the end, like their great US Open final. I think Carlos might have won if he’d won the fourth, but it’s a big if because even if he’d broken back at 5-3 down, he still had a lot of work to do to win the fourth set..

 

[Kieran]

It's the new found belief from Daniil that worries me. He was so focused against Alcaraz until the last game when he served for the match and played one of the best matches of his career. He overcome a lot mentally and game wise. If the match had gone to 5th set, who knows how it would have unfolded, probably Carlos would have an edge.

The final might be different. He had to make a statement for Carlos, but we’ll see what he has left. Hopefully more statement!

 

[don_fabio]

The final might be different. He had to make a statement for Carlos, but we’ll see what he has left. Hopefully more statement!

Agree. It's never easy to execute perfectly in back to back matches, semis and final against most challenging players around at the moment. If Daniil does exactly that and plays flawless tennis again, then hats down to him for beating no.1 and no.2 player in the world.

 

[El Dude]

I disagree about Medvedev needing to play a perfect match to beat Djokovic. Does Medvedev need to play well tomorrow? Yes, absolutely! Perfect, I don’t think so…

We often talked about on how styles make fights, well this match-up symbolizes that statement.

Djokovic is obviously the better all round player AND better in the head or mentally over Medvedev.

But there is a reason why Djokovic is uncomfortable playing against Medvedev at HC. Medvedev needed play aggressive against Alcaraz due to match-up style. Against Djokovic, he needs to serve well and stay consistent behind the baseline.

If anything, Medvedev just needs to play the important points better meaning deuce, break points 30-all…

This sounds reasonable, but is also where I think Daniil needs to realize that Novak is not Carlos. Carlos is great, but he's young and not quite as adaptable as Novak, nor is he yet able to dig as deep and widely as Novak is, to find a way to win.

So I think any approach for Medvedev that involves "just needs to" is a losing proposition. Novak can and will adapt, in a Borg-like way ("Resistance is futile"). Maybe Daniil doesn't need to play a perfect match, but I think with your last sentence you're kind of saying that he needs to come close to perfection in key moments, which amounts to the same thing.

In other words, where Daniil was essentially able to roll over Alcaraz with momentum, I don't think he'll be able to do that with Novak. He'll have to adjust and adjust again, as Novak adjusts. With Carlos he mostly just had to stay the course. With Novak, he's going to have to come up with answers to Novak adapting.

 

[Fiero425]

True. If the match against Carlito had gone to 5, Carlito mostly likely would have won. Medvedev had a meltdown at AO 2022 with a 2 set lead. Djokovic has to return serve well if he wants to win.

Amen & hallelujah to that! I need to ask @Kieran about implosions; against Novak he lost in straight sets, then blew a 2 sets to love lead vs Rafa! Which is the true meltdown? Help me out! I feel like I'm in the Twilight Zone sometimes when it comes to the Nadovic discussions!

 

[Kieran]

Amen & hallelujah to that! I need to ask @Kieran about implosions; against Novak he lost in straight sets, then blew a 2 sets to love lead vs Rafa! Which is the true meltdown? Help me out! I feel like I'm in the Twilight Zone sometimes when it comes to the Nadovic discussions!

Straightforward brother! Against Novak he arrived in the final on a 20 match winning streak, and lost 7-5, 6-2, 6-2, while showing serious mental issues on court by breaking a racket.

Against Rafa, it was Rafa who imploded to lose the second 7-6, the next two sets were 6-4 6-4, and in the fifth Danii had game point at 5-all to almost force Rafa to serve to stay in it, and face a tiebreak to win it.

That’s not a meltdown. It was always close, except for the first set…

 

[tented]

 

[tented]

 

[rafanoy1992]

This sounds reasonable, but is also where I think Daniil needs to realize that Novak is not Carlos. Carlos is great, but he's young and not quite as adaptable as Novak, nor is he yet able to dig as deep and widely as Novak is, to find a way to win.

So I think any approach for Medvedev that involves "just needs to" is a losing proposition. Novak can and will adapt, in a Borg-like way ("Resistance is futile"). Maybe Daniil doesn't need to play a perfect match, but I think with your last sentence you're kind of saying that he needs to come close to perfection in key moments, which amounts to the same thing.

In other words, where Daniil was essentially able to roll over Alcaraz with momentum, I don't think he'll be able to do that with Novak. He'll have to adjust and adjust again, as Novak adjusts. With Carlos he mostly just had to stay the course. With Novak, he's going to have to come up with answers to Novak adapting.

I do not think it is the same thing, in my opinion. Medvedev can play so-so on baseline rallies, return and other shots, but if he plays the important moments well then he can win the match.

In my view, playing perfect tennis against Djokovic in a slam will be Stan Wawrinka in 2015 RG Final or even the 2013 AO match.

As for the Alcaraz match, Medvedev did not just stay the course against Alcaraz. He actually had to be really aggressive from the baseline. If Medvedev stayed on course, Alcaraz would have blitzed him just like at Wimbledon. I could see the difference in Medvedev's demeanor especially after he won the 1st set.

One more thing: Yes, Medvedev will need to adjust when Djokovic adapts to the situation. That I agree 100% with you. But, I think Medvedev knows who is he facing in the final. He won't get intimidated AND he realizes that Alcaraz is not Djokovic.

 

[Moxie]

If this is the case, it benefits one of them, I just don’t know which one!

Weather update: The rain came earlier. Now it doesn't look like rain again until 10pm. Maybe they'll go with the roof open. It's not terribly hot (70s,) but it's very humid.

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Weather update: The rain came earlier. Now it doesn't look like rain again until 10pm. Maybe they'll go with the roof open. It's not terribly hot (70s,) but it's very humid.

I am watching the womens doubles final the roof is closed

 

[tented]

Weather update: The rain came earlier. Now it doesn't look like rain again until 10pm. Maybe they'll go with the roof open. It's not terribly hot (70s,) but it's very humid.

There’s still a chance of rain, according to my weather app, so I doubt they’ll open it, especially since it’s already closed, as MM pointed out.

 

[Fiero425]

There’s still a chance of rain, according to my weather app, so I doubt they’ll open it, especially since it’s already closed, as MM pointed out.

That should favor Dokovic! I still remember how it helped in his comeback in 2018! That Wimbl. SF over 2 days easily helped him def. Nadal!

 

[Moxie]

There’s still a chance of rain, according to my weather app, so I doubt they’ll open it, especially since it’s already closed, as MM pointed out.

The chance of rain is low until 10pm. And now the sun is coming out here. It would be wrong, in an outdoor tournament, to keep the roof closed for a 20% chance of rain, or less, would it not?