2023 US Open F: Djokovic vs. Medvedev

[tented]

 

[Kieran]

Despite his staggering victories over Casper the Ghost, Nick ‘Arkham Prison’ Kyrgios, Babycakes, Sissypussy, Bozo the Clown and Fozzy Bear in bolstering his record, Novak isn’t what he was. He’s reached four consecutive slam finals, mind you, but that’s a testimony to his great willpower, the effect of his reputation, and the general depressed inertia in men’s tennis that’s been there for years now. But despite the fact that he’s not the same man he was 10 years ago, he’ll bring it. And Danii is obviously hyped. But there’s an echo of unfinished business here from 2021. Danii thumped him and Novak knows that match was the biggie. So I can see him settling scores.

If Danii plays his best, he’ll tire Novak. We saw at Wimbledon, a much more forgiving court physically, that Novak wasn’t as young as he used to be. Danii can really make him suffer on hards, the way he’s playing.

I’ll go with Novak tentatively, because I trust him more to turn up and be ready. I think Danii is less trustworthy in that regard, and will be more prone to sulking if things don’t go his way.

Novak in 3 or 4..

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Let's see, in Medvedev's half of the draw were guys like Wawrinka, Sinner, Zverev, and Alcaraz. Djokovic's half of the draw had guys like Djere and Shelton. Medvedev's half was much together and I think it will pay dividends in the final. Medvedev wins his 2nd US Open title in 4 sets.

 

[Nadalfan2013]

This is not the AO.
This is a USO final where Djokovic has a very bad record.
And Medvedev's kryptonite GOATdal is not here.
Medvedev will outpush Djokovic and win.
Conclusion based on scientific and mathematical proof: Djokovic will break the record for most lost finals in one slam: 3-7.

 

[El Dude]

Let me try this out...

If Medvedev wins, Novak clearly sucks and therefore Rafa is the GOAT.
If Novak wins, it is because it was an easy draw and Daniil pussed out, so RAFA is the GOAT.

Did I do that right?

 

[El Dude]

But addressing the final seriously, I think too much is made of what came before. Certainly assessing their respective play levels during the tournament is important, but each match is a fresh day. Novak's been here before and knows how to meet the moment. Doesn't mean he'll win tomorrow, but I don't think his relatively easy draw has any impact on the result tomorrow.

Daniil is playing really well - as good as ever. But I think back to the 2015 Wimbledon final. Roger had demolished Andy Murray in the SF and looked unbeatable going into the final. But as is often the case, Novak's play just disturbed him and he crumbled, losing in four sets. Meaning, on paper one would think that Roger's level going into the final would earn him a victory. But Novak knew how to counter, and Roger stumbled. In fact, this was often the case in their big matches, and an element of Novak's greatness: he's sort of like a mercurial chameleon that can adapt and adjust to the player before him, and the moment of the match - finding the weakness and exploiting it.

Anyhow, I picked Novak in 4. I won't be surprised if Daniil wins, but I'm guessing Novak finds a way.

 

[Jelenafan]

Let me try this out...

If Medvedev wins, Novak clearly sucks and therefore Rafa is the GOAT.
If Novak wins, it is because it was an easy draw and Daniil pussed out, so RAFA is the GOAT.

Did I do that right?

One of us…one of us….one of us…one of us..

Resistance is futile.

 

[rafanoy1992]

Interestingly enough, while Djokovic is more than likely to win the match even if he loses the 1st set, he might want to avoid that tomorrow. The reason I said this is because Medvedev is probably the only player in the tour that doesn’t mind grinding with Djokovic from behind the baseline. So if Medvedev wins the 1st set, look for him to go lockdown mode to wear down Djokovic physically.

At this point, it is all about execution from both players.

If it goes 5 sets, Djokovic will win. If it is less than that, I will go Medvedev.

I pick Medvedev in 4 sets

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Let me try this out...

If Medvedev wins, Novak clearly sucks and therefore Rafa is the GOAT.
If Novak wins, it is because it was an easy draw and Daniil pussed out, so RAFA is the GOAT.

Did I do that right?

No, it doesn't matter if Medvedev or Novak wins, Roger Federer still has 5 consecutive US Open wins, and therefore, is the GOAT. Remember, repeating as US Open champion is the hardest thing to do in tennis.

 

[tented]

No, it doesn't matter if Medvedev or Novak wins, Roger Federer still has 5 consecutive US Open wins, and therefore, is the GOAT. Remember, repeating as US Open champion is the hardest thing to do in tennis.

While it hasn’t happened since 2008, I‘d hardly say it’s the hardest thing in tennis.

 

[Kieran]

Let me try this out...

If Medvedev wins, Novak clearly sucks and therefore Rafa is the GOAT.
If Novak wins, it is because it was an easy draw and Daniil pussed out, so RAFA is the GOAT.

Did I do that right?

Well….nobody is saying that!

 

[El Dude]

Well….nobody is saying that!

I'm just trying to fit in. I've considered doing a Nadalfan2013 satire account, to try to one-up him. It would be hard to do, however.

 

[Mile]

Two Champions tomorrow, Basketball and US Open. How is dealing with GOAT now, any difference !?

 

[Nadalfan2013]

Let me try this out...

If Medvedev wins, Novak clearly sucks and therefore Rafa is the GOAT.
If Novak wins, it is because it was an easy draw and Daniil pussed out, so RAFA is the GOAT.

Did I do that right?

Yes you got it right.

 

[nehmeth]

86% chance of precipitation on Sunday, so the roof should be closed during play. Indoor hardcourt conditions will give opportunity for the opponents to play their best. I expect there will be nerves on both sides of the court. Novak played a guy this week that for two sets had him on his heels. Djere played the match of his life. Novak stepped up his game and won. Daniil played the match of his life and beat Alcaraz. This should be overall a very good contest, possibly laced with greatness. Novak in 4.

 

[Moxie]

But addressing the final seriously, I think too much is made of what came before. Certainly assessing their respective play levels during the tournament is important, but each match is a fresh day. Novak's been here before and knows how to meet the moment. Doesn't mean he'll win tomorrow, but I don't think his relatively easy draw has any impact on the result tomorrow.

Daniil is playing really well - as good as ever. But I think back to the 2015 Wimbledon final. Roger had demolished Andy Murray in the SF and looked unbeatable going into the final. But as is often the case, Novak's play just disturbed him and he crumbled, losing in four sets. Meaning, on paper one would think that Roger's level going into the final would earn him a victory. But Novak knew how to counter, and Roger stumbled. In fact, this was often the case in their big matches, and an element of Novak's greatness: he's sort of like a mercurial chameleon that can adapt and adjust to the player before him, and the moment of the match - finding the weakness and exploiting it.

Anyhow, I picked Novak in 4. I won't be surprised if Daniil wins, but I'm guessing Novak finds a way.

I don't know that the Federer/Wimbledon comparison is apt. Or at least in the way you mean it. Federer was aging, and getting chased by a top, younger champion I'd argue (and I have) that Roger peaked one match too soon before that final. A sign of age putting your timing off. I absolutely thought it looked like Roger would win that match, going in, and I was rooting against it.

Djokovic has certainly been adaptable, especially in his heyday, but his salad days are basically behind him. He still plays great tennis, but with the same wobbles that we've seen in Roger and Rafa. I think he's been playing excellent tennis this tournament, through an easy draw. Until he wobbled trying to close against Shelton. And now he'll face Medvedev, without having been seriously tested, and Medvedev suddenly having really sharpened his game.

Totally possible that Novak comes on too strong, Dani too nervous, and it goes reasonably fast. But if Medvedev brings anything like he brought yesterday, and jumps on Novak, the stress will be a feature. And the doubt. And the window closing. That's why I'm saying your example of Roger and Wimbledon might actually be the opposite. Certainly their last meeting there was.

 

[Moxie]

86% chance of precipitation on Sunday, so the roof should be closed during play. Indoor hardcourt conditions will give opportunity for the opponents to play their best. I expect there will be nerves on both sides of the court. Novak played a guy this week that for two sets had him on his heels. Djere played the match of his life. Novak stepped up his game and won. Daniil played the match of his life and beat Alcaraz. This should be overall a very good contest, possibly laced with greatness. Novak in 4.

I expect a good match. All but certainly the roof will be closed, so at least the elements won't be a factor.

 

[rafanoy1992]

The way I view it is that Medvedev needs to win the 1st set for his mental capabilities.

On the other hand, Djokovic needs to win the 1st set for his physical capabilities.

Also, I am curious to see on which strategy will get executed better. For Medvedev, it is the serve AND CCFH. For Djokovic, it is the slices, angles and etc…

Another thing is that while Djokovic will want ”revenge” for the 2021 US Open Final, Medvedev will want to prove something tomorrow also. He wants to prove to the world that his 2021 US Open title is NOT a fluke AND he wants to show the world that he can overcome a very tough loss (2022 AO Final).

 

[El Dude]

I don't know that the Federer/Wimbledon comparison is apt. Or at least in the way you mean it. Federer was aging, and getting chased by a top, younger champion I'd argue (and I have) that Roger peaked one match too soon before that final. A sign of age putting your timing off. I absolutely thought it looked like Roger would win that match, going in, and I was rooting against it.

Djokovic has certainly been adaptable, especially in his heyday, but his salad days are basically behind him. He still plays great tennis, but with the same wobbles that we've seen in Roger and Rafa. I think he's been playing excellent tennis this tournament, through an easy draw. Until he wobbled trying to close against Shelton. And now he'll face Medvedev, without having been seriously tested, and Medvedev suddenly having really sharpened his game.

Totally possible that Novak comes on too strong, Dani too nervous, and it goes reasonably fast. But if Medvedev brings anything like he brought yesterday, and jumps on Novak, the stress will be a feature. And the doubt. And the window closing. That's why I'm saying your example of Roger and Wimbledon might actually be the opposite. Certainly their last meeting there was.

What you say is reasonable. I only used the Roger example because it looked like after the SF that he was unbeatable - he dominated Andy in a way that, if applying the same level of play to Novak, would have likely yielded a victory. But Roger's rhythm was disrupted by Novak who, if I remember correctly, seemed to get in his head - Roger reverting to being "shankerer" and started missing shots he wasn't vs Andy.

The point being, I wouldn't overly weigh anything before tomorrow as being strongly determinative of the outcome. The result depends upon how they play tomorrow, not what they've done over the last two weeks. The final is a clean slate. We don't have to look at Roger in 2015 to see this, but pretty much any Slam final.

But I hear you--and agree--that Daniil is playing great tennis and should, at the least, make it competitive. I wouldn't be surprised if he wins. I still give Novak the edge, though, and it is for the same reason that I have often given Rafa the edge in similar situations: the two of them are so damn smart, so tactical, and so adaptable. This, I think, is the main way that they surpassed Roger. Not in talent or skill, but in tennis smarts and the mental game. In that regard, Novak and Rafa are co-GOATs and above Roger, regardless of what my fellow Roger fans feel. So when I consider tomorrow's match, I can't help but think that Novak will find a way. Daniil will only play him if his level is significantly better; that is, if he finds a way to disrupt Novak and make almost no errors in response. He has to play a nearly perfect match; Novak doesn't. He just needs to thread the needle, like he's done a million times before.

 

[rafanoy1992]

What you say is reasonable. I only used the Roger example because it looked like after the SF that he was unbeatable - he dominated Andy in a way that, if applying the same level of play to Novak, would have likely yielded a victory. But Roger's rhythm was disrupted by Novak who, if I remember correctly, seemed to get in his head - Roger reverting to being "shankerer" and started missing shots he wasn't vs Andy.

The point being, I wouldn't overly weigh anything before tomorrow as being strongly determinative of the outcome. The result depends upon how they play tomorrow, not what they've done over the last two weeks. The final is a clean slate. We don't have to look at Roger in 2015 to see this, but pretty much any Slam final.

But I hear you--and agree--that Daniil is playing great tennis and should, at the least, make it competitive. I wouldn't be surprised if he wins. I still give Novak the edge, though, and it is for the same reason that I have often given Rafa the edge in similar situations: the two of them are so damn smart, so tactical, and so adaptable. This, I think, is the main way that they surpassed Roger. Not in talent or skill, but in tennis smarts and the mental game. In that regard, Novak and Rafa are co-GOATs and above Roger, regardless of what my fellow Roger fans feel. So when I consider tomorrow's match, I can't help but think that Novak will find a way. Daniil will only play him if his level is significantly better; that is, if he finds a way to disrupt Novak and make almost no errors in response. He has to play a nearly perfect match; Novak doesn't. He just needs to thread the needle, like he's done a million times before.

I disagree about Medvedev needing to play a perfect match to beat Djokovic. Does Medvedev need to play well tomorrow? Yes, absolutely! Perfect, I don’t think so…

We often talked about on how styles make fights, well this match-up symbolizes that statement.

Djokovic is obviously the better all round player AND better in the head or mentally over Medvedev.

But there is a reason why Djokovic is uncomfortable playing against Medvedev at HC. Medvedev needed play aggressive against Alcaraz due to match-up style. Against Djokovic, he needs to serve well and stay consistent behind the baseline.

If anything, Medvedev just needs to play the important points better meaning deuce, break points 30-all…