Here is how I expect the match to proceed:
1st Set: Novak is seasoned playing his 30th final. Babycake is playing first final and he may need more time to settle in. That should be enough for Novak to get a break and win the first set with a score of line of 6-4 or 6-3.
2nd Set: After donating the first set, Matteo will tighten the ship. With the first set in bag, Novak will take the foot off the pedal (not the classic walkabout which he often does) and this combination should be good enough to give Matteo a win with a scoreline of 6-4 or 7-5. Even though it is going to be a one break win, there will be three breaks of serve in this set.
3rd Set: Now Novak will realize that opponent is not going to just give and he needs to go out and get it. This will be the most interesting and tightly contested set. Novak will eventually win this set with a score of line of 7-5 or in a tie-breaker even though Matteo will also play really good.
4th Set: Now that Matteo will be dejected, he will go for more on his second serve and do some dfs. He would generally play out of his comfort zone and lose the set fairly quickly. A two break win for Novak with a scoreline of 6-3 or 6-2.