2019 Australian Open Semifinals: Nadal vs. Tsitsipas

[the AntiPusher]

My fear for Nadal against Novak is this: The only time when Rafa has had success against Novak on hards is when he was serving significantly better especially in 2010 and to a lesser extent in 2013 . So Novak will be in every one of his service games at this time.
Second thing is that Nadal's backhand and movement towards that side is not as good as it used to be during the years I mentioned.

One of the biggest problems that Nadal has against Novak is the Serb's relentless attack on Nadal's backhand. Novak has this cc forehand which is many times short and angles away . That is not a weapon against a right hander . But it is against Nadal , as it pushes Rafa wide on the backhand. When Nadal plays his best he can flatten out his backhand and respond cc or even DTL sometimes. But he isn't hitting it that well right now and it is easy for Novak just to place the ball on Rafa's backhand to control the point or to hit deep into Nadal's forehand and open him up.

Lastly and most importantly, let's not ignore the surface.The decoturf at the US open takes Nadal's spin much better than the court here. He can push his opponents wide and back with the spin and the bounce. The plexicushion at AO just doesn't respond to the spin in the same way nor does it bounce as much. Lot of times Rafa's ball just sits up or Nadal starts looping to get depth. So at any given time this surface will be less favorable for Nadal than playing in the US open, which explains why he has a great record there.

The Dunlop balls are bouncing higher the past week and I think Rafa's knows he has got to stay away from Novak's bh..if the game points are close ..Novak's only weakness or Achilles heel is his fh..a deep ball to that part of his arsenal is the most likely will break down..IMO

 

[Denis]

The Dunlop balls are bouncing higher the past week and I think Rafa's knows he has got to stay away from Novak's bh..if the game points are close ..Novak's only weakness or Achilles heel is his fh..a deep ball to that part of his arsenal is the most likely will break down..IMO

Novak still needs to play his semi first....

 

[Denis]

Nadal really beat the shit out of Tsitsipas, just watching some more of the match now. While the kid has a good head on his shoulders this must be a tough loss. He got completely destroyed, no positives from this match at all.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Last night I watched the match until Ralph broke to begin the third set. I had never seen Ralph play this aggressively before. Also, he is coming forward more often.

As many have already said, Ralph exploited the single handed backhand of Perseus. Another thing that I noticed is that Perseus also had difficulty with volleying when he came to the net due to the heavy spin (around 3000 rpm) of the balls. Anyway, this was a clear beatdown and I was not expecting it will be so one sided.

Having said that, I would not call Perseus as nobody or a mere hype. Very surely Perseus is mentally strong, has a good attitude and an aggressive game compared to most upcoming players. I am sure he will succeed after few years. We forget that he basically broke into the scene when he reached the finals of Barcelona last year. Not even an year has passed since then. Give him sometime to mature and learn the ins and outs of GS tennis with big boys.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

wafa wins in swaights. is he gonna go full federer and win the title after injury ?.

titsipas 95th pro match went tits up, but a breakout tourney (in majors),

 

[Moxie]

As I posted above, others, in regards to Djokovic's less-than-ominous form to date, have reminded me that it's not how you play in the first week. The greats reserve something for the late rounds. I think this is what Tsitsipas came up against today. Rafa could afford to hold something back in the earlier rounds, but not much today. Today was to send a message for the final, and to win quickly enough to have something in reserve for it. Tsitsipas ran up against that, and didn't have enough for that, yet. Novak has had more occasion to look wobbly, but I admit that he's faced stiffer competition. I also expect that he's timing his efforts to tomorrow and for the final. I don't think Stefanos has poor mental strength. I think he was just vastly overmatched today. Nadal is on a mission, and Tsitsipas was a roadblock in his way. So he bulldozed over him.

Forgive me for quoting my own post, but the main AO thread is closed, and I didn't think it my place to post this in the Fed Fans thread. I was thinking more about this today, and wondering if it isn't part of why Tsitsipas upset Roger. I know some fans said he played poorly. He didn't convert any BPs. But, Roger looked like he was about to go up 2-0 in sets when I went to bed. I thought he had that match. A reason that fans get so mad at up-and-comers pulling off the upset is that they sort of have "nothing to lose," and throw it all at the more top guy. (Which is why they often fail to back it up in the next round.) Roger, as defending champ, would have been timing his performances to peak later in the second week. Obviously, he hasn't been in the best patch of form, and he ran into someone who was more than just a random comer. But I wonder if he wasn't holding a bit back in part of that match, keeping his powder dry for later, when the Greek did really have nothing to lose, or no way of knowing how to think like that...meaning saving it for later rounds. For him, it was beat Roger or go home. I'm just suggesting that the elite players time their tournaments differently, believing that they showed up to be there on the last Sunday. But someone can sneak up on you that way. I dunno. Just a thought.

 

[Nadalfan2013]

Forgive me for quoting my own post, but the main AO thread is closed, and I didn't think it my place to post this in the Fed Fans thread. I was thinking more about this today, and wondering if it isn't part of why Tsitsipas upset Roger. I know some fans said he played poorly. He didn't convert any BPs. But, Roger looked like he was about to go up 2-0 in sets when I went to bed. I thought he had that match. A reason that fans get so mad at up-and-comers pulling off the upset is that they sort of have "nothing to lose," and throw it all at the more top guy. (Which is why they often fail to back it up in the next round.) Roger, as defending champ, would have been timing his performances to peak later in the second week. Obviously, he hasn't been in the best patch of form, and he ran into someone who was more than just a random comer. But I wonder if he wasn't holding a bit back in part of that match, keeping his powder dry for later, when the Greek did really have nothing to lose, or no way of knowing how to think like that...meaning saving it for later rounds. For him, it was beat Roger or go home. I'm just suggesting that the elite players time their tournaments differently, believing that they showed up to be there on the last Sunday. But someone can sneak up on you that way. I dunno. Just a thought.

Federer simply tanked the match like has done many times in the past when he sees that Rafa is in top shape.
He wanted to avoid Rafa and frankly I don't blame him.

 

[Moxie]

Federer simply tanked the match like has done many times in the past when he sees that Rafa is in top shape.
He wanted to avoid Rafa and frankly I don't blame him.

You cannot possibly believe that. Otherwise, why did he beat Novak at 2011 RG SF, as one example?

 

[Chris Koziarz]

You cannot possibly believe that. Otherwise, why did he beat Novak at 2011 RG SF, as one example?

You're bound to be better off (i.e. your opinion be closer to objective reality) if you don't believe anything Nadalfan says, including everything he says about Nadal. You probably know that already.

 

[Chris Koziarz]

Forgive me for quoting my own post, but the main AO thread is closed, and I didn't think it my place to post this in the Fed Fans thread. I was thinking more about this today, and wondering if it isn't part of why Tsitsipas upset Roger. I know some fans said he played poorly. He didn't convert any BPs. But, Roger looked like he was about to go up 2-0 in sets when I went to bed. I thought he had that match. A reason that fans get so mad at up-and-comers pulling off the upset is that they sort of have "nothing to lose," and throw it all at the more top guy. (Which is why they often fail to back it up in the next round.) Roger, as defending champ, would have been timing his performances to peak later in the second week. Obviously, he hasn't been in the best patch of form, and he ran into someone who was more than just a random comer. But I wonder if he wasn't holding a bit back in part of that match, keeping his powder dry for later, when the Greek did really have nothing to lose, or no way of knowing how to think like that...meaning saving it for later rounds. For him, it was beat Roger or go home. I'm just suggesting that the elite players time their tournaments differently, believing that they showed up to be there on the last Sunday. But someone can sneak up on you that way. I dunno. Just a thought.

Good thought. By the same token, Fed himself, as 19y old, eliminated Sampras in 4th round wimby. A telling coincidence.

 

[Moxie]

Good thought. By the same token, Fed himself, as 19y old, eliminated Sampras in 4th round wimby. A telling coincidence.

Much has been made of that "changing of the guard" coincidence. I'm not saying that there's not something in it. It didn't light up the same excitement when he lost to KA at W or Millman at USO. Tsitsipas is turning into the real deal, and it turns out he was the pothole in Roger's draw. I was just wondering if Fed wasn't holding something back, to Tsitsipas's lights-out. I don't think Rafa would have destroyed Stefanos in the same way if they'd met in the 4th round, is all I'm saying. These greats are different animals in the late stages of a tournament, and especially of Majors.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Forgive me for quoting my own post, but the main AO thread is closed, and I didn't think it my place to post this in the Fed Fans thread. I was thinking more about this today, and wondering if it isn't part of why Tsitsipas upset Roger. I know some fans said he played poorly. He didn't convert any BPs. But, Roger looked like he was about to go up 2-0 in sets when I went to bed. I thought he had that match. A reason that fans get so mad at up-and-comers pulling off the upset is that they sort of have "nothing to lose," and throw it all at the more top guy. (Which is why they often fail to back it up in the next round.) Roger, as defending champ, would have been timing his performances to peak later in the second week. Obviously, he hasn't been in the best patch of form, and he ran into someone who was more than just a random comer. But I wonder if he wasn't holding a bit back in part of that match, keeping his powder dry for later, when the Greek did really have nothing to lose, or no way of knowing how to think like that...meaning saving it for later rounds. For him, it was beat Roger or go home. I'm just suggesting that the elite players time their tournaments differently, believing that they showed up to be there on the last Sunday. But someone can sneak up on you that way. I dunno. Just a thought.

No, no. I disagree.

1. First Perseus did not play lights out tennis. "lights out" tennis refers to redlining and selecting shots which are against the odds.
Perseus did not do that. Perseus played intelligently and more importantly he showed great mental strength despite a seemingly
bleak situation.

2. Yes, it is true that big players want to save their best for the last. It only means that, they would necessarily blow their opponents
off the court in early rounds, despite the opponents being weak. However, they also know that there is no tomorrow if you die today.
So, even if they are not bringing their A game right at the beginning, when they see the need they will switch to A game even in earlier
rounds.

3. Roger's terrible BP conversion rate is nothing new. We have seen it many times since 2012. The only difference this time is that
he could not even break once. It is not attributable Roger saving something for tomorrow.

 

[Moxie]

No, no. I disagree.

1. First Perseus did not play lights out tennis. "lights out" tennis refers to redlining and selecting shots which are against the odds.
Perseus did not do that. Perseus played intelligently and more importantly he showed great mental strength despite a seemingly
bleak situation.

2. Yes, it is true that big players want to save their best for the last. It only means that, they would necessarily blow their opponents
off the court in early rounds, despite the opponents being weak. However, they also know that there is no tomorrow if you die today.
So, even if they are not bringing their A game right at the beginning, when they see the need they will switch to A game even in earlier
rounds.

3. Roger's terrible BP conversion rate is nothing new. We have seen it many times since 2012. The only difference this time is that
he could not even break once. It is not attributable Roger saving something for tomorrow.

It was just a theory. I was being lazy to say that Tsitsipas "red-lined." I thought some of the rest had merit, but I guess Roger just sucked.

 

[Nadalfan2013]

I watched again the match highlights between Tsitsipas and Federer and I have to say that Federer was playing unbelievable. His problem was that he missed a lot of opportunities not only break points but also tons of set points to go up 2 sets to 0. He was hitting the ball unbelievable and playing great, but Tsitsipas also fought and played great and Federer simply missed his opportunities. The idea that he didn't play well or that he's "finished" is overblown, I thought he was playing as great as ever. High quality rallies and match.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

It was just a theory. I was being lazy to say that Tsitsipas "red-lined." I thought some of the rest had merit, but I guess Roger just sucked.

Unlike some other Fed fans, I would not say Roger sucked in this match. He played fairly decent from beginning to end, but sucked on big points most of the time.

 

[The_Grand_Slam]

Unlike some other Fed fans, I would not say Roger sucked in this match. He played fairly decent from beginning to end, but sucked on big points most of the time.

But he was spraying errors on neutral rally FHs(only 9 winners and 33 Unforced errors from that wing).His ROS sucked.
Out of 12 BPs,he made UFEs on 5.

Very discouraging match from Fedfan POV

 

[GameSetAndMath]

But he was spraying errors on neutral rally FHs(only 9 winners and 33 Unforced errors from that wing).His ROS sucked.
Out of 12 BPs,he made UFEs on 5.

Very discouraging match from Fedfan POV

Yes, he had quite a few UFE. Just checked the stats again. He had 61 Winners and 55 UFE for a differential of +6. Tsitsipas had 62 winners and 36 UFE for a differential of +26. So, Tsitsipas had +20 more than Fed in the differentials.

But, apart from the UFE and BP conversion most of the rest of the stat look reasonable.

My main point is that I had seen Roger play more poorly than this in a losing effort.

 

[The_Grand_Slam]

Yes, he had quite a few UFE. Just checked the stats again. He had 61 Winners and 55 UFE for a differential of +6. Tsitsipas had 62 winners and 36 UFE for a differential of +26. So, Tsitsipas had +20 more than Fed in the differentials.

Those winners include everything (ace,service winner,volley winners,etc.)
In rallies Federer only had 9 winners from his FH and 7 from his BH(33 FH UFE and 10 BH UFE).The most discouraging part was him making routine errors from FH when Tsitsipas didn't even pressure him .

Apart from the 55 errors he also had 13 more return errors.

But, apart from the UFE and BP conversion most of the rest of the stat look reasonable.

My main point is that I had seen Roger play more poorly than this in a losing effort.

Sure ,there have been other worse performances (except from the return game POV),but this match is not an encouraging sign for the rest of the year.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Those winners include everything (ace,service winner,volley winners,etc.)
In rallies Federer only had 9 winners from his FH and 7 from his BH(33 FH UFE and 10 BH UFE).The most discouraging part was him making routine errors from FH when Tsitsipas didn't even pressure him .

Apart from the 55 errors he also had 13 more return errors.




Sure ,there have been other worse performances (except from the return game POV),but this match is not an encouraging sign for the rest of the year.

Are you sure that those 13 return errors are not part of the 55 total errors?

 

[The_Grand_Slam]

Are you sure that those 13 return errors are not part of the 55 total errors?

Yeah check AO website.
https://ausopen.com/match/2019-Stefanos-Tsitsipas-vs-Roger-Federer-MS406#!stats

Just below the Unforced errors,there a stat called return unforced error