2019 Australian Open, Melbourne - ATP GRAND SLAM

[DarthFed]

You're on for a beer. If Roger could lose to Anderson at Wimbledon, he hasn't got a shot at Nadal at the AO.

If Thiem can take Rafa to 5 on an HC then he has no shot against Roger. See how silly that is?

 

[Moxie]

If Thiem can take Rafa to 5 on an HC then he has no shot against Roger. See how silly that is?

Keep holding onto that. You'll still owe me a beer if Rafa beats Roger in the SFs.

 

[El Dude]

Yeah, but...you knew what I was going to say. How can I not? Chin forward. Shall I pretend that I wasn't hoping for Roger to be drawn on Novak's half? I won't. I would like Rafa to get another shot at Roger. His record against him at the AO is pretty good. However, should Roger fall out before, I won't be sad.

Yeah, I hear you. My view is that I see them as 50-50. Rafa would be the historic favorite, but a couple things against him: One, we don't know how healthy he is; two, Roger looked really good at Hopman. I suppose three would be AO is a bit on the fast side these days.

So it really depends upon who shows up:

Hopman Federer + Slightly hobbled Rafa = Let's party like it's 2017
Hopman Federer + healthy Rafa = bloodbath, anyone's guess
2018 Roger + any version of Rafa = 2008-13 style slaughter

 

[Moxie]

Yeah, I hear you. My view is that I see them as 50-50. Rafa would be the historic favorite, but a couple things against him: One, we don't know how healthy he is; two, Roger looked really good at Hopman. I suppose three would be AO is a bit on the fast side these days.

So it really depends upon who shows up:

Hopman Federer + Slightly hobbled Rafa = Let's party like it's 2017
Hopman Federer + healthy Rafa = bloodbath, anyone's guess
2018 Roger + any version of Rafa = 2008-13 style slaughter

Hilarious and rather fair assessment.

 

[Fiero425]

If Thiem can take Rafa to 5 on a HC, then he has no shot against Roger. See how silly that is?

What are you talking about? I don't watch as much as I once did, but even I know Thiem hits a much heavier ball! Fed can swipe a few winners, but overall his ball has little to nothing on it in comparison! Come on, am I imagining this conversation? Thiem will get it together sooner or later and start beating these oldsters on a regular basis if they continue to hang on! He was quite impressive in that USO match against Rafa; just didn't complete the deal in a 5th set TB! He contributed to Rafa needing to WD against Del PO in the SF! :whistle:

 

[DarthFed]

What are you talking about? I don't watch as much as I once did, but even I know Thiem hits a much heavier ball! Fed can swipe a few winners, but overall his ball has little to nothing on it in comparison! Come on, am I imagining this conversation? Thiem will get it together sooner or later and start beating these oldsters on a regular basis if they continue to hang on! He was quite impressive in that USO match against Rafa; just didn't complete the deal in a 5th set TB! He contributed to Rafa needing to WD against Del PO in the SF! :whistle:

I missed the part where Thiem is remotely decent off clay. Wake me up when it happens bro. He was allowed to push Rafa around that match because Nads grinding game allowed it.

 

[Moxie]

I missed the part where Thiem is remotely decent off clay. Wake me up when it happens bro. He was allowed to push Rafa around that match because Nads grinding game allowed it.

Just a reminder, Nadal won that match.

 

[DarthFed]

Just a reminder, Nadal won that match.

Should have had no problem winning in straights if he was playing decent, that was my point.

 

[Moxie]

Should have had no problem winning in straights if he was playing decent, that was my point.

Match ups are different, as you well know. You know that you don't want to see Rafa in Roger's SF, let's face it. Roger is looking a bit like a shell, at 37.

 

[El Dude]

Thiem really is very much a clay specialist. According to Ultimate Tennis Statistics, here is his ELO rankings on different surfaces (career high in parentheses):

Clay: 3 (2)
Hard: 21 (17)
Grass: 37 (27)

So he's barely top 20 hard, and more like a 30ish grass player.

 

[Fiero425]

Thiem really is very much a clay specialist. According to Ultimate Tennis Statistics, here is his ELO rankings on different surfaces (career high in parentheses):

Clay: 3 (2)
Hard: 21 (17)
Grass: 37 (27)

So he's barely top 20 hard, and more like a 30ish grass player.

He needs to learn to shorten his groundstroke production! Give him time; he'll learn! He'll be fine on HC too after getting some seasoning!

 

[herios]

The dark okay, but how can you be afraid of dogs? They are mans best friend.

Yeah, do you include here the cases when they bite you?

Thiem really is very much a clay specialist. According to Ultimate Tennis Statistics, here is his ELO rankings on different surfaces (career high in parentheses):

Clay: 3 (2)
Hard: 21 (17)
Grass: 37 (27)

So he's barely top 20 hard, and more like a 30ish grass player.

And that is why I usually consider him the weak link in the top 10, aside clay. Expect someone else to show up in the QF than him in the other 3 slams.

 

[herios]

He needs to learn to shorten his groundstroke production! Give him time; he'll learn! He'll be fine on HC too after getting some seasoning!

He is 25 year old. How much time we need to wait? Until 30?

 

[Fiero425]

He is 25 year old. How much time we need to wait? Until 30?

Look at Anderson, Cilic, and so many others that bloomed late and ended up making fantastic runs! It's not out of the ordinary! :whistle:

 

[El Dude]

He is 25 year old. How much time we need to wait? Until 30?

This is what I was going to say.

That said, if we shift everything back 2-3 years, 25 is the new 22: meaning, the year that a player truly comes of age. Maybe Thiem will take it up a notch. He's a top 5 clay courter (#3 with Stan not yet fully back and Roger not playing clay, and Sascha not yet able to go deep at Slams); maybe he can jump to top 10 hard and top 20 grass, and be a more well-rounded player...

Maybe.

 

[herios]

This is what I was going to say.

That said, if we shift everything back 2-3 years, 25 is the new 22: meaning, the year that a player truly comes of age. Maybe Thiem will take it up a notch. He's a top 5 clay courter (#3 with Stan not yet fully back and Roger not playing clay, and Sascha not yet able to go deep at Slams); maybe he can jump to top 10 hard and top 20 grass, and be a more well-rounded player...

Maybe.

I am with you here and I agree that they could develop further into their late twenties,but the problem here is the late bloomers worked on certain aspects like strategy, confidence, but not as much "technical adjustments" which Thiem needs to do. This will be much tougher to do.

 

[herios]

Look at Anderson, Cilic, and so many others that bloomed late and ended up making fantastic runs! It's not out of the ordinary! :whistle:

Tell me one late bloomer who changed successfully his ground technique.

 

[Fiero425]

Tell me one late bloomer who changed successfully his ground technique.

I couldn't tell you because I stopped caring ages ago! I barely keep up; esp. with the women! ALL these newbies with names I can't even pronounce and I just don't GAF! I keep up with the top players and results of the big tourneys! That's it! Sorry! :whistle:

 

[DarthFed]

Match ups are different, as you well know. You know that you don't want to see Rafa in Roger's SF, let's face it. Roger is looking a bit like a shell, at 37.

The main hope is for Rafa to lose every match he plays and finally retire.

But I'm not afraid of Roger playing Rafa here sweetheart. Roger has often looked like a shell in his 30's...and he's also often looked damn good. Motivation is everything for him, I noted the big chance he'd struggle last year after getting back to #1. Now he again has a legacy to protect because 20 is nothing if Nadal hits that or more. It's a simple math equation.

 

[Carol]

What is going on with the balls?

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/ten...-up-as-organisers-dig-in-20190111-p50qwi.html