2018 Wimbledon Championships - Men

herios

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This is a good day for me. Novak and Milos progressed, Nicky and Sasha are kicked out. Joyful.
 
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monfed

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Awful day for tennis. Faker, dull, glassikori in. thug out.
 

kskate2

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Results from the Wimbledon Championships - London, England, Gent's Singles Round 3 matches on Saturday
(2) Rafael Nadal d Alex de Minaur 61 62 64
(Q) Ernests Gulbis d (4) Alexander Zverev 762 46 57 63 60
(5) Juan Martin del Potro d Benoit Paire 64 764 63
(12) Novak Djokovic d (21) Kyle Edmund 46 63 62 64
(13) Milos Raonic d (Q) Dennis Novak 765 46 75 62
(24) Kei Nishikori d (15) Nick Kyrgios 61 763 64
Jiri Vesely d (19) Fabio Fognini 764 36 63 62
Karen Khachanov d Frances Tiafoe 46 46 763 62 61
Gilles Simon d Matthew Ebden 61 673 63 762
 

kskate2

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2018 Wimbledon Championships: Day 7, July 9 - Order of Play
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GameSetAndMath

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After two full rounds (except for one postponed match) are over, it is time to consult the bookies again.

Here are the latest odds.

1. Federer 21/20 (49%)
2. Novak 11/2 (15%)
3. Rafa 6 (14%)
4. JMDP 12 (8%)
5. Raonic / Nick 16 (6%)
7. Anderson 50 (2%)
8. Edmund / Isner 80 (1.2%)
10. Querry / Khachanov / Tsitsipas / Nishikori 100 (1%)

Important observations / changes:

1. Finally, there is significant increase in Fed's chances. It increased from 38% to 49% with the loss of Cilic.
2. We now have only three contenders (10% chance or more).
3. Novak moves ahead of Rafa, though the difference is marginal.
4. The chances for JMDP, Raonic and Nick all have increased by about 2%
5. Edmund and Isner break out of other suckers.
6. Khachanov and Tsitsipas enter, just in case anyone wants to donate money to the house.
7. List size reduced to 13 from previous 15.


Note that there are different companies offering different odds for the same players. What I report is the worst odds offered by any company for that player. In other words, if you have decided to put money on a particular player, no company offers you better odds than the ones listed above. If you are wondering why Sasha is missing here, that is because one house has dropped his odds to 500 (while most other houses list him between 16 and 25). Since I use the maximum odds offered by any single house, his name does not figure in the list above.

Now is a good time to bet on Fed. If you bet $100 on Fed, you will get $200. Not bad. 100% return in just two weeks. The best portfolio in stock market gives you 10% return in an year.

Three (bolded in the quoted message) from the short list of 13 by the bookies went home in third round.
 

GameSetAndMath

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Monfils vs. Anderson and Isner vs. Tsitsipas seems to be the only matches of Manic Monday whose results are in doubt.
 

monfed

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Exceptional first week for Fed. Not being taken to even a TB against an inform big hitting Struff sums up his level. As Fed says, you can't win Wimbledon in the first week but you can certainly lose it so good job Fed. Couldn't have asked for more after the atrocious Halle.

With the Cilic upset, Fed looks like a lock for the final. Raonic will test him if he makes the SF but even in 2016, Fed should've closed him in 4 so a well playing Fed will be too much for Botnic. Fed will be damn motivated, he's not gonna let such an opportunity slip.

After seeing fakervic today, he's almost back to slam winning level. Beat a peaking crowd favourite after dropping the first set in convincing fashion, seems to have got his GOAT return back and defense was very good. He looks like a lock for the final unless an upset out of the blue.

Nadull is a question mark, if he'll make the final or he'll go out to fakervic in the SF or Delshitro in the QF but I'm picking Federer vs fakervic in the final with Fed taking revenge of the 2 Wimbledon final defeats with better returning and wiser tactics with Lubecheck.

So all in all, Fed vs fakervic final with Fed winning in 3/4.
 
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GameSetAndMath

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After the first week is over, with just 16 men left standing, here is what bookies say.

1. Federer 19/20 (51%)
2. Novak 5 (17%)
3. Rafa 11/2 (15%)
4. Del Potro 9 (10%)
5. Raonic 20 (5%)
6. Nishikori 40 (2.4%)
7. Anderson 50 (2%)
8. Isner 80 (1.2%)
9. Tsitsipas / Khachanov / Gulbis 100 (1%)

Observations / Changes:

1. Roger's odds slightly improved. For the first time his chances are better than that of the rest of the field.
2. We are now back to four contenders.
3. Only Mannarino / Monfils / McDonald / Simon / Veseley were (correctly) not even deemed to have a puncher's chance.
 

GameSetAndMath

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I am torn as to whether I want to have Rafa in the final. This is not because I am afraid that Fed will lose against Rafa this year in the final. I am confident that Fed will win.

On the one hand if Fed beats up Rafa in the final, it will be sort of like a completion and revenge over the 2008 loss which gets blown up by the media. Hopefully, Wirthiem can write a sequel vol. 2 of his book.

On the other hand even if Fed beats up Rafa in the final, everyone would say, hey it is expected and so there is nothing great about it. In fact, people might say that Rafa is so great, he managed to reach the finals at his worst surface even after having several bad years.
 

Moxie

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I am torn as to whether I want to have Rafa in the final. This is not because I am afraid that Fed will lose against Rafa this year in the final. I am confident that Fed will win.

On the one hand if Fed beats up Rafa in the final, it will be sort of like a completion and revenge over the 2008 loss which gets blown up by the media. Hopefully, Wirthiem can write a sequel vol. 2 of his book.

On the other hand even if Fed beats up Rafa in the final, everyone would say, hey it is expected and so there is nothing great about it. In fact, people might say that Rafa is so great, he managed to reach the finals at his worst surface even after having several bad years.
On the other hand, Rafa could well beat Roger, should they get to the final, and that's got to weigh on you, because that would be disastrous for anyone who tries to posit that 2008 was a fluke. You'd be better off sticking with your usual position, which is that Rafa loses asap in all tournaments. The last thing you want is a Fedal final again. B-)
 
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DarthFed

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Exceptional first week for Fed. Not being taken to even a TB against an inform big hitting Struff sums up his level. As Fed says, you can't win Wimbledon in the first week but you can certainly lose it so good job Fed. Couldn't have asked for more after the atrocious Halle.

With the Cilic upset, Fed looks like a lock for the final. Raonic will test him if he makes the SF but even in 2016, Fed should've closed him in 4 so a well playing Fed will be too much for Botnic. Fed will be damn motivated, he's not gonna let such an opportunity slip.

After seeing fakervic today, he's almost back to slam winning level. Beat a peaking crowd favourite after dropping the first set in convincing fashion, seems to have got his GOAT return back and defense was very good. He looks like a lock for the final unless an upset out of the blue.

Nadull is a question mark, if he'll make the final or he'll go out to fakervic in the SF or Delshitro in the QF but I'm picking Federer vs fakervic in the final with Fed taking revenge of the 2 Wimbledon final defeats with better returning and wiser tactics with Lubecheck.

So all in all, Fed vs fakervic final with Fed winning in 3/4.

Fed definitely should make the final but with that said this isn't 2006 and anything can happen. At age 37 he can have a bad day. I will say if he loses it's most likely due to a bad service day and a poor ROS. On paper he shouldn't lose but you could say that at Wimbledon almost every year.
 

DarthFed

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Who you got for the final my man? And will it be #9 and #21 on July 15?

Gun to head I say Roger over Rafa in the final but I have a feeling we will see another big surprise or 2.
 

DarthFed

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I am torn as to whether I want to have Rafa in the final. This is not because I am afraid that Fed will lose against Rafa this year in the final. I am confident that Fed will win.

On the one hand if Fed beats up Rafa in the final, it will be sort of like a completion and revenge over the 2008 loss which gets blown up by the media. Hopefully, Wirthiem can write a sequel vol. 2 of his book.

On the other hand even if Fed beats up Rafa in the final, everyone would say, hey it is expected and so there is nothing great about it. In fact, people might say that Rafa is so great, he managed to reach the finals at his worst surface even after having several bad years.

I agree with a lot of this but at the end of the day it's all about protecting GOAThood. So Moxie is correct, even though I'd have Roger as a clear favorite against Nadal, I much rather the latter isn't there on the final Sunday.
 
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GameSetAndMath

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PSA: For those who want to relive the first week, ABC has an encore show from 3 to 6 p.m. EDT on middle sunday.