2018 NextGen Talk

El Dude

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By "next gen" I think of Dominic Thiem and younger. Drepending upon how you cut the cake, Thiem--born in September of 1993--could be either LostGen or NextGen, but either way is transitional.

This thread is to discuss those players. For reference, here are the highest ranked players by years 1993 to 2000 (with Jan 1 ages in parentheses), with rankings as of December 25:

1993 (24): Thiem 5, Vesely 62, Daniel 99, Baena 106, Fratangelo 110, Otte 131
1994 (23): Pouille 18, Thompson 94, Monteiro 124, Bourgue 160
1995 (22): Kyrgios 21, Edmund 50, Djere 88, Marterer 90, Jarry 113, Norrie 114
1996 (21): Khachanov 45, Coric 48, Donaldson 54, Chung 58, Medvedev 65, Escobedo 120, Halys 129, Berretini 131, E Ymer 142, Ofner 143....Kokkinakis 209
1997 (20): Zverev 4, Rublev 39, Fritz 104, Bublik 117, Santillan 146, Paul 152, Kwon 168
1998 (19): Tiafoe 79, Tsitsipas 91, Ruud 139, Kozlov 167, Mmoh 175, Lee 195
1999 (18): Shapovalov 51, Moutet 155, Kecmanov 207, De Minaur 208
2000 (17): Felix Auger Aliassime 162, Nicola Kuhn 242, Molleker 566

The weakeness of 1993-95 (not to mention 1992) in a way nicely separates Lost Gen and NextGen with this weird transitional phase with only a few standouts. A lot of names on there who are unlikely to do much. For instance, Fratangelo and Ymer have been handing out in the 100-200 range for years now and have barely sniffed the top 100. But then you can look at those players who are ranked very highly for their age, in particular Aliassime (youngest player in the top 200 since Rafa Nadal!), Shapovalov, and Zverev. But in terms of rank by age, Kuhn and Moutet bear watching.

Some predictions for 2018:
*Dominic Thiem wins a clay Masters, but also maxes out as a #4-8ish player ala Berdych/Tsonga.
*Alexander Zverev goes deeper into Slams but doesn't repeat his two Masters titles of 2017, but consolidates in the top 5. He has a good year but some see it as somewhat disappointing as it isn't markedly better than 2017 (but he has another breakthrough in 2019 when he wins his first Slam and reaches #1).
*Nick Kyrgios has a breakthrough year and wins a big title or two, possibly a Slam, but is also erratic. He remains one of the most entertaining players on tour.
*Andrey Rublev storms up the rankings and is in the top 20 by clay season, but then plateaus for the rest of the year; a darkhorse candidate for a Masters title.
*Frances Tiafoe and Stefanos Tsitsipas both continue to rise, and both win their first titles. They reach the 21-40 range by year's end, but don't breach the top 20 until 2019.
*Denis Shapovalov continues to impress but 2018 is more about consolidating. He probably doesn't reach the top 30, but wins his first lower level title.
*Felix Auger Aliassime storms the top 100 and finishes the year in the top 50.
*Corentin Moutet and Nicola Kuhn become the new names to watch, both rising significantly in the rankings, Moutet finishing in the mid top 100 and Kuhn close to the top 100.
 
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herios

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Firstly, I totally include those born in 1993 in the "Lost generation" because it is an extremely weak crop, aside Thiem.
Just look at ghem Thiem, Vesely and Daniel only 3 top 100 players by the time they are 24 old? If that is not weak, I don't know what it is.
Thiem "may win" bigger titles but that is not guaranteed.
Even if he will do, I will cast him the best of the "Lost generation" those born in 1989-1993.
 

El Dude

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I agree, @herios, but it seems that many consider Thiem to be NextGen. Either way, 1993-94 is transitional, so if he's still LostGen, he's the bookend.

Anyhow, it is a good era to be a Canadian. At some point we might see the top two players in the sport be Canadian (Shapovalov and Aliassime, with apologies to Milos).
 

Moxie

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I think you have a good shot at all of those predictions for 2018 and NextGen. I consider Thiem to be NextGen, btw, because he's so on the young end of Lost Gen, and broke a bit late.
 
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herios

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Too optimistic prospects for the Next Gen. here by El Dude IMO.
I am seeing Sasha Zverev dropping out of top 5, and I cannot see FAA getting in the top 50 either.
I doubt also Tsitsipas or Tiafoe will win titles, those would most likely consolidate their positions in the top 100.
 

Moxie

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Too optimistic prospects for the Next Gen. here by El Dude IMO.
I am seeing Sasha Zverev dropping out of top 5, and I cannot see FAA getting in the top 50 either.
I doubt also Tsitsipas or Tiafoe will win titles, those would most likely consolidate their positions in the top 100.
Zverev may drop out of the top 5 at some point, but I think he's rather there to stay, or close to it. You don't think there's some 250 in there for Tiafoe or Tsitsipas this year? I'd bet at least one of them wins a title.
 

herios

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Have you been aware of Zverev results lately?
Also, Coric demonstrated at the USO a recipe how to defeat Zverev. I am actually surprised others did not figure it out.
And Coric is not so great ether.
You have to serve to Sasha's FH, put him on the defensive right away, then move him side to side and up to the net sometimes with drop shots.
I know it is easy to say, but if Borna did it, othere are other 30-40 who could do it too.
About Tiafoe and Tsitsipas I need to see better results going forward. I am not convinced yet.
 

El Dude

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Zverev's recent performance is a tad worrisome, but he can adjust.

As for Tiafoe and Tsitsipas, I think the question isn't whether they'll eventually be top 20, but where in the top 20. And both may not win a title this year, but I think at least one does.
 

mrzz

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I agree about Tsitsipas getting a 250. Also I would say that he will reach more than one final. Tiafoe I believe still needs more polishing on the finer aspects of the game. Both surely have a huge potential.
 
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britbox

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Have you been aware of Zverev results lately?
Also, Coric demonstrated at the USO a recipe how to defeat Zverev. I am actually surprised others did not figure it out.
And Coric is not so great ether.
You have to serve to Sasha's FH, put him on the defensive right away, then move him side to side and up to the net sometimes with drop shots.
I know it is easy to say, but if Borna did it, othere are other 30-40 who could do it too.
About Tiafoe and Tsitsipas I need to see better results going forward. I am not convinced yet.

Sasha's actually got pretty good wheels for a big man. Yeah, his net game leaves a lot to be desired but good dropshots aren't easy either. I don't see this as a blueprint for the field taking him down.
 

El Dude

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Australian Open 1R NextGen Matches

Borna Coric vs. John Millman
Andrey Rublev vs. David Ferrer
Stefano Tsitsipas vs. Denis Shapovalov
Nick Kyrgios
vs. Rogerio Dutra-Silva
Lucas Pouille vs. Qualifier
Corentin Moutet vs. Andreas Seppi
Jared Donaldson vs. Alberto Ramos-Vinolas
Hyeon Chung vs. Mischa Zverev
Thanasi Kokkinakis vs. Daniil Medvedev
Alexander Zverev
vs. Tomas Fabbiano
Alex de Minaur vs. Tomas Berdych
Karen Khachanov vs. Qualifier
Frances Tiafoe vs. Juan Martin del Potro

I think I got them all, except for possible qualifiers that are still to be determined. That's a pretty deep field of Next Genners - more than any previous Slam, I would guess.

De Minaur has played well recently and I'm looking forward to seeing what Moutet will do this year. I'd like to see Medvedev take a big jump forward - he seems to be stagnating a bit. Poor Tiafoe - that's a rough 1R opponent.
 
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Moxie

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Am just starting to look over the draws, but I did notice the one: as you say, bad luck for my lovely Frances. You can ask Djokovic about getting del Potro in the first round. :eek:
 

El Dude

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In case anyone is wondering, Felix Auger-Aliassime withdrew from the AO a few weeks ago due to a knee injury. Hopefully nothing too serious, as I have high hopes for this kid and think he's going to reach the top 50-100 range this year (he's at #159 in the live rankings). He's still only 17 years old, turns 18 in August - same birthday as Roger.
 

Moxie

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In case anyone is wondering, Felix Auger-Aliassime withdrew from the AO a few weeks ago due to a knee injury. Hopefully nothing too serious, as I have high hopes for this kid and think he's going to reach the top 50-100 range this year (he's at #159 in the live rankings). He's still only 17 years old, turns 18 in August - same birthday as Roger.
Probably no one was, but thanks for the update. I know you're a big champion of him, and I'm curious to see the kid play. Sorry about the knee, and yes, hopefully nothing that lingers.
 

El Dude

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Yeah, I have high hopes for him.

Speaking of FAA, here are the 17-year olds who finished a year in the top 200.

2017: Felix Auger-Aliassime (162)
2015: Frances Tiafoe (176)
2014: Alex Zverev (136)
2005: Juan Martin del Potro (157), Evgeny Korolev (185)
2003: Rafael Nadal (49), Richard Gasquet (93)
2002: Richard Gasquet (age 16, 161), Rafael Nadal (age 16, 200)
1998: Lleyton Hewitt (100)
1991: Dinu Pescariu (169)
1989: Michael Chang (5)
1988: Michael Chang (age 16, 30), Pete Sampras (97)
1987: Andre Agassi (25), Michael Chang (age 15, 163), Franco Davin (166)
1986: Andre Agassi (age 16, 91), Guillermo Perez-Roldan (109)
1985: Kent Carlsson (50)
1984: Aaron Krickstein (11), Boris Becker (108)
1983: Stefan Edberg (53), Aaron Krickstein (age 16, 94)
1981: Mats Wilander (69)
1980: Thierry Tulasne (113), Giammalva Jr (189)
1974: Billy Martin (36)
1973: Bjorn Borg (18), Billy Martin (age 16, 145)

1973 to 1986 might not be complete, as i took this from a chart I made awhile ago of the ten highest ranked teenagers by year. For instance, in 1986, the tenth highest ranked teenager (Leonardo Lavalle, age 19) was #105, so there could be 17-year olds ranked after him. But I think it is close.

Anyhow, I don't think anything before the last 20 years or so is all that meaningful in terms of the present - just a different era, with players going pro younger, especially in the 80s. And there aren't enough players to give a lot of data - just eight players from 1998 to the present. But of the five whose careers are most complete (Hewitt, Rafa, Gasquet, del Potro, Korolev), there's one obvious outlier--Korolev--and the rest range from very good to great.

A couple other 17-year olds just missed the cut during that time period: Jimmy Wang in 2002 (205) and Marat Safin in 1997 (203). Wang joins Korolev and Safin joins the others, so we're looking at seven players:

One great: Rafa
Three almost great/excellent: Safin, Hewitt, del Potro
One very good: Gasquet
Two mediocre: Wang, Korolev
 
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mrzz

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Franco Davin turn out to be a great coach (to mention someone else on the list, but I know is not the point).
 

mrzz

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I was watching Ruud - Halys (6x6 in the fifth but now I need to work), and while I am still no fan of Ruud, I think he got much better from the last time I saw him. He is still too defensive to my taste, but now he shows more lapses of offensive play, and he is showing a lot of guts to attack at crucial moments. His net play is still a bit weak though. Halys has a better serve and that's an advantage in a match like this. I had Halys on my bracket, but now I am actually rooting to Ruud (or rooding to Ruut).
 
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Denis

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I picked Ruud, but never seen him play lol Didnt he do well in Mexico last year or something?