2018 French Open Men's final: Nadal v Thiem

[brokenshoelace]

Who is not vulnerable? what about Thiem? I see how many titles he has....come on, even that you always seem to be pesimist I think you should be more realistic this time

My realism lies with the quote "It's a FO final so it's almost impossible to pick against Nadal" which was written literally right before the "he's vulnerable" part you commented on.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Unfortunately I’m in the Hospital because yesterday I fall down very badly and I broken the top of my femur and on Monday I will get a surgery. This happened in the south of France so it was even worse because I rather it happened in my city Bilbao. They have told me that I will can leave the hospital in two days but I won’t to be able to come back to Miami until probably two weeks later, the good think is I will spend more time with my family. But at least I will be able tomorrow to watch the final and I hope Rafa will give me a great time

Sorry to hear, get well soon.

 

[Carol]

Sorry to hear, get well soon.

Thanks ‘broken’

 

[mrzz]

In fact, he is actually the only player to defeat Rafa this year on clay.

He was the only one to do that in 2017 either. I wonder what else (apart from winning RG) the guy could do to make a statement. In 2017, not only he managed to beat Nadal on clay, he gave him a helluva fight in the Madrid final, probably the best clay match of 2017. My point back then was, and still is, he is the only "younger" guy who showed to be able to face a big three player playing close to his best. (Maybe Zverev did that in patches in the Rome final, but I honestly think Nadal heavily contributed to that).

The historical odds between those two are 1:2. Given the RG final factor, correct it to 20% chance for Thiem, as the bookies say, and it really sounds reasonable. All points in GSM's post from which I took the quote are a very good reasoning for this number.

I see it this way: It is usual in Nadal's career, and specially at this particular tournament, to have a slow start. Not all players could benefit from that, and, specially, not a single one was able to make at least competitive the moment Nadal raised his level. This is precisely were I think Thiem can make a stand, to fight to protect an early lead. If he is able to do that, he has a shot.

So that's the first big if. I could be extremely optimistic and say that Thiem is the mild favorite to win the first set (say, 60% to 40%). The second big if, in fact much larger than the first, is how he would deal with the eventual lead.

Luckily for Thiem Nadal is playing bellow his 2017 level. Thiem is too, but I think the trade off is better for him. We already know Nadal is able to maintain or even increase his level on a major final. Thiem still needs to even try it...

I think that Thiem makes a statement, shows the world he is the next big player on clay, but sill loses on a hard fought 5 setter that will cement (if that was needed) Nadal's legacy and will be seen as a dividing point in tennis history by future tennis journalists, historians and, much more importanly, (this) board posters.

 

[isabelle]

Dominator in 4 hopefully

 

[Carol]

Take care Carol, obey the doctors and get well soon.

Thanks kskate

 

[DarthFed]

Unfortunately I’m in the Hospital because yesterday I fall down very badly and I broken the top of my femur and on Monday I will get a surgery. This happened in the south of France so it was even worse because I rather it happened in my city Bilbao. They have told me that I will can leave the hospital in two days but I won’t to be able to come back to Miami until probably two weeks later, the good think is I will spend more time with my family. But at least I will be able tomorrow to watch the final and I hope Rafa will give me a great time

Sorry to hear that Carol. Get better soon and at least you get to see the final from the room...hospitals suck

 

[Horsa]

Thank so much! :heart:

You're welcome. Don't worry about anything. Just concentrate on getting yourself better.

 

[mrzz]

Also sorry to hear that @Carol. I wish a speedy recovery.

 

[isabelle]

have a speed recovery Carol, take care

 

[Carol]

Sorry to hear that Carol. Get better soon and at least you get to see the final from the room...hospitals suck

Thanks DarthFed, at least I can see the final but like you say, hospitals sucks even that everyone is very nice around , doctors and nurses, the only problem is the language, they don’t talk too much Spanish and English and my French is not too good either

 

[Carol]

have a speed recovery Carol, take care

Thanks Isabelle

 

[Carol]

Also sorry to hear that @Carol. I wish a speedy recovery.

Thanks mrzz, hope everything is going to be well soon

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Carol, Hope you get well soon. I am glad you will be able see Rafa lose live though.

 

[Carol]

Carol, Hope you get well soon. I am glad you will be able see Rafa lose live though.

Thanks GSM! but the weather forecast announces rain for tomorrow and Monday so maybe they have to move the final to Tuesday

 

[imjimmy]

Unfortunately I’m in the Hospital because yesterday I fall down very badly and I broken the top of my femur and on Monday I will get a surgery. This happened in the south of France so it was even worse because I rather it happened in my city Bilbao. They have told me that I will can leave the hospital in two days but I won’t to be able to come back to Miami until probably two weeks later, the good think is I will spend more time with my family.

Very sorry to hear that Carol. Hope you get well soon. Take care .

 

[Carol]

Very sorry to hear that Carol. Hope you get well soon. Take care .

Thanks imjimmy, at least I can watch the women final and tomorrow men final if it’s not going to rain

 

[Moxie]

Good lord, @Carol! Que mejores rápido, guapa. Y ¡vamos, Rafa!

 

[the AntiPusher]

Unfortunately I’m in the Hospital because yesterday I fall down very badly and I broken the top of my femur and on Monday I will get a surgery. This happened in the south of France so it was even worse because I rather it happened in my city Bilbao. They have told me that I will can leave the hospital in two days but I won’t to be able to come back to Miami until probably two weeks later, the good think is I will spend more time with my family. But at least I will be able tomorrow to watch the final and I hope Rafa will give me a great time

Miss Carol , i am sorry to hear of your injury ..Get well soon

 

[atttomole]

I hope that you have a speedy recovery Carol.