2018 French Open Men's final: Nadal v Thiem

[mrzz]

So both you & Mrzz have crystal balls. Lol.

Yeah, but mine actually works.

 

[Fiero425]

Nadal in 4. However, I have a feeling that Nadal could pulverize the Austrian, like he did last year at the same tournament.

Logic tells me the same, but if Thiem can steal the 1st set, I'll give him a chance! He'll really need to play a lot like Schwartzman and go for broke! He has to keep up the pressure, have good depth of shot, and cut off weak shots at the net to close out points sooner! It's like today's players are on automatic pilot and refuse to do the least little thing outside of their comfort zone figuring "I need to stay within myself!" Idiotic; which is why "the also rans" of this gen. have only been fodder/pigeons for Fedalovic the last 12+ years! :whistle:

 

[Moxie]

Logic tells me the same, but if Thiem can steal the 1st set, I'll give him a chance! He'll really need to play a lot like Schwartzman and go for broke! He has to keep up the pressure, have good depth of shot, and cut off weak shots at the net to close out points sooner! It's like today's players are on automatic pilot and refuse to do the least little thing outside of their comfort zone figuring "I need to stay within myself!" Idiotic; which is why "the also rans" of this gen. have only been fodder/pigeons for Fedalovic the last 12+ years! :whistle:

I bet Thiem knows what he has to do. The problem will be executing. The other problem for the "also-rans" has had a lot to do with Fedalovic being much better than they are. B-)

 

[GameSetAndMath]

That is a nice clip, but a huge exaggeration. Here are top ten reasons why I think Thiem will win.

1. It is not that Thiem broke into the scene suddenly (say like Tsitsipas or Marco). He had been in SF twice here at RG. So, he will not be overwhelmed by the occasion.​

2. No matter how much one hears about venomous topspin forehands, actually facing it is different. But, it is not like Thiem is playing Rafa for the first time. They have played 9 times before. Also, it is not like they have not played on clay before. In fact all their encounters were on clay. Finally, it is not like Thiem has not played Rafa at RG before. He has faced Rafa twice before. So, all these experience will certainly help him. So, he will not be overwhelmed by the opponent.

3. It is one thing to have experience of playing against. It is another thing to have the experience of winning against Rafa. Thiem has actually won against Rafa. If you have never won before, there will always be a doubt as to whether you can actually get it done and you won't be playing with belief. Rafa-Thiem H2H is 6-3 with all matches being played on clay. Going by H2H, he has 1 in 3 chances, which is much better than the initial statement of 1 in 100 in that clip not to mention 1 in million as said later in the clip. In fact, even Novak does not have better H2H percentage wise against Rafa. Rafa is 16-7 against Novak on Clay. Thiem is winning one out of every three matches against Rafa. Guess what, this is the third time thy are playing in RG and he has lost the other two. However, the caveat is that all of Thiem's wins came in three set matches and he never managed to win even a single set in 5-set encounters between them. But, the first RG encounter was also the first encounter between them and so is excusable. Last year's RG loss was also excusable considering he is coming from the high of beating Novak there and was facing Rafa in the very next match.

4. It is not like Thiem's wins over Rafa are from distant past. He has one win against Rafa in each of the recent three years 2016, 2017 and 2018. In fact, he is actually the only player to defeat Rafa this year on clay. ​

5. Forgetting all the statistics, in terms of actual tennis Thiem has the game to potentially win against Rafa. In other words, there are no match-up specific drawbacks here.

6. Thiem won his last two matches in three sets and so will have enough in the tank for the finals.

7. Thiem did not have a SF against a blockbuster opponent (say like Novak or Stan or Andy) and so does not have to deal with the emotional high that comes from that and being actually ready for the next match.

8. Rafa played for three days in a row. But, Thiem's schedule was not disrupted. So, he will be in his regular rhythm.

9. The weather is expected to be messy with rain, causing play on mud.

10. Last but not the least, It is not like Rafa is crushing all the opponents. Rafa is surely showing vulnerabilities. Only thing is that so far, no one was good enough to exploit them. That won't be the case on Sunday.

Even if you don't believe in any of the above 10 reasons, you should believe my crystal ball. I actually destroyed my old crystal ball in anger after Fed lost to Novak in 2015 Wimby finals and bought a new one that was on sale at JC Penny that Christmas. The only caveat is that it is three years old and so is bit unreliable.

p.s. There is a typo in the first line. My strange keyboard spit out "will" even though I typed "may".

 

[Moxie]

^ Of course that clip was funny, but you're absolutely right to make the case for Thiem. He is the one that most picked for the final, and the worthiest on offer. (Thank goodness it's not Cecchinato...Nadal fans would never hear the end of him winning the title over him!) I expect Thiem to be ready, with a plan, and the weather might indeed feature. As a fan, I'm not without nerves about it. But best of 5, and the one-hander give a certain calm. Dominic will have to seriously rattle Rafa early and often to hope to profit on Sunday.

As to your #7: Does that crystal ball have a snowman and lots of white flakes inside? 'Cause I'm not sure I'd count on that.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

According to Bookies, the odds for the finals are as follows.

Rafa 5/19 (79% chances)

Thiem 18/5 (21% chances)

 

[Moxie]

According to Bookies, the odds for the finals are as follows.

Rafa 5/19 (79% chances)

Thiem 18/5 (21% chances)

That seems about right.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

That seems about right.

I thought you believed that Bookies are snake-oil salesmen and so should not be trusted.

 

[Moxie]

I thought you believed that Bookies are snake-oil salesmen and so should not be trusted.

I kind of don't have a lot of respect for their methodology when they seem to be going based on rank and not the recent evidence on the ground. Plus, I'm not a bettor. But wouldn't YOU say that that sounded like a reasonable spread?

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I kind of don't have a lot of respect for their methodology when they seem to be going based on rank and not the recent evidence on the ground. Plus, I'm not a bettor. But wouldn't YOU say that that sounded like a reasonable spread?

The spread is reasonable on paper. But, I have "inside info". So, it is actually a good time to bet.

 

[Moxie]

The spread is reasonable on paper. But, I have "inside info". So, it is actually a good time to bet.

Oh really. What is your inside info?

 

[Chris Koziarz]

GSM put together a nice list rational arguments boosting Thiem's chances to cause an upset. However I still think his chances are rather small.
Notably, did we already forget the silly scheduling decisions by Thiem this clay season? We just ridiculed him for playing Lyon squeezing in between Rome & RG. With his ranking, playing Lyon was an unnecessary distraction. He should have simply forgot about
Lyon and concentrate on RG. Players like Fed would call such scheduling decision an act of stupidity although they would never say it in public. So, with this act, Thiem has shown maybe a mentality of a youngster eager to play/show off, butr certainly not the mentality of a champion. He actually spent a lot of energy in Lyon by winning it, which means that by now he should be very tired with three weeks of non-stop play, or even four weeks with one weekend break if you include his Rome ride.
Given the above, I think he'll not have enough petrol in his tank to keep up with the King for five sets in this final, provided that the King is inform, which appears to be. So he will regret his stupid scheduling decisions which burned him up earlier. The reason for the stupid decisions would be an obvious question to ask at the press (if he loses, becauswe in an unlikely case he wins people will forget), I wonder what he can say about it...
EDIT: ..and my prediction is Nad in 4 because Domi will have the energy for one set only.

 

[brokenshoelace]

This is definitely the best final we could have had, given Djokovic's level... Thiem should have the belief, to some extent. The conditions seem to be on his side too, so there's also that.

Now it boils down to whether he can take advantage of Rafa's now-customary slow start at this tournament. If he can, and he wins the first set, I honestly think it becomes really tricky for Nadal, especially because I don't trust him to just flip a switch this tournament just yet, and there's also the fact that Thiem is just very good, with weapons that can trouble Rafa. Thiem will absolutely punish Rafa's serve and I think that will be the biggest issue, as Rafa has been serving like pure crap all tournament. It's partially why it's taking him so much time to find his range on his ground-strokes. It's very difficult for the rest of your game to click if your serve is just not working. Every player is in all of Nadal's service games. He's been broken left and right and faced so many break points (I still don't understand how DelPo failed to break in that first set).

That said, it's Nadal in a RG final, so it's almost impossible to pick against him, but he's vulnerable.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

GSM put together a nice list rational arguments boosting Thiem's chances to cause an upset. However I still think his chances are rather small.
Notably, did we already forget the silly scheduling decisions by Thiem this clay season? We just ridiculed him for playing Lyon squeezing in between Rome & RG. With his ranking, playing Lyon was an unnecessary distraction. He should have simply forgot about
Lyon and concentrate on RG. Players like Fed would call such scheduling decision an act of stupidity although they would never say it in public. So, with this act, Thiem has shown maybe a mentality of a youngster eager to play/show off, butr certainly not the mentality of a champion. He actually spent a lot of energy in Lyon by winning it, which means that by now he should be very tired with three weeks of non-stop play, or even four weeks with one weekend break if you include his Rome ride.
Given the above, I think he'll not have enough petrol in his tank to keep up with the King for five sets in this final, provided that the King is inform, which appears to be. So he will regret his stupid scheduling decisions which burned him up earlier. The reason for the stupid decisions would be an obvious question to ask at the press (if he loses, becauswe in an unlikely case he wins people will forget), I wonder what he can say about it...
EDIT: ..and my prediction is Nad in 4 because Domi will have the energy for one set only.

I too was one of those who criticized him playing in Lyon. But, he proved that it did not affect him, by reaching finals. You cannot argue with success. Further matches played in the distant past do not really affect your strength and stamina in a current match. Only the recent matches can affect. In that regard, as already mentioned, he won the last two matches in straight sets.

Also, there is a proper justification for Thiem to play in Lyon. In Rome, Thiem actually lost in the first round to Fog (who is inspired by
the home court advantage). So, he did not really accrue any fatigue that week. If Thiem had gone deep in Rome, he probably would not
have played in Lyon. In the entire European clay season except for Lyon, Thiem did not win any title (even though he managed to defeat Rafa in Madrid). He lost to Rafa badly in MC, lost to Tsitsipas in Barcelona, lost to Sasha in the finals in Madrid and then lost to Fog in Rome in the first round. In Lyon, he won the title. Winning a title always lifts your confidence level, even if it is a minor title. So, his decision after all is not a bad one or a childish one.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Tignor has not jinxed anyone yet. He will do so sometime tomorrow, probably after the WTA final. Let us see, whether he has any interesting insights to offer.

 

[Carol]

This is definitely the best final we could have had, given Djokovic's level... Thiem should have the belief, to some extent. The conditions seem to be on his side too, so there's also that.

Now it boils down to whether he can take advantage of Rafa's now-customary slow start at this tournament. If he can, and he wins the first set, I honestly think it becomes really tricky for Nadal, especially because I don't trust him to just flip a switch this tournament just yet, and there's also the fact that Thiem is just very good, with weapons that can trouble Rafa. Thiem will absolutely punish Rafa's serve and I think that will be the biggest issue, as Rafa has been serving like pure crap all tournament. It's partially why it's taking him so much time to find his range on his ground-strokes. It's very difficult for the rest of your game to click if your serve is just not working. Every player is in all of Nadal's service games. He's been broken left and right and faced so many break points (I still don't understand how DelPo failed to break in that first set).

That said, it's Nadal in a RG final, so it's almost impossible to pick against him, but he's vulnerable.

Who is not vulnerable? what about Thiem? I see how many titles he has....come on, even that you always seem to be pesimist I think you should be more realistic this time

 

[Carol]

Unfortunately I’m in the Hospital because yesterday I fall down very badly and I broken the top of my femur and on Monday I will get a surgery. This happened in the south of France so it was even worse because I rather it happened in my city Bilbao. They have told me that I will can leave the hospital in two days but I won’t to be able to come back to Miami until probably two weeks later, the good think is I will spend more time with my family. But at least I will be able tomorrow to watch the final and I hope Rafa will give me a great time

 

[Horsa]

Unfortunately I’m in the Hospital because yesterday I fall down very badly and I broken the top of my femur and on Monday I will get a surgery. This happened in the south of France so it was even worse because I rather it happened in my city Bilbao. They have told me that I will can leave the hospital in two days but I won’t to be able to come back to Miami until probably two weeks later, the good think is I will spend more time with my family. But at least I will be able tomorrow to watch the final and I hope Rafa will give me a great time

I'm very sorry to hear that. Take care! I hope you're better as soon as can be expected.

 

[Carol]

I'm very sorry to hear that. Take care! I hope you're better as soon as can be expected.

Thank so much! :heart:

 

[kskate2]

Unfortunately I’m in the Hospital because yesterday I fall down very badly and I broken the top of my femur and on Monday I will get a surgery. This happened in the south of France so it was even worse because I rather it happened in my city Bilbao. They have told me that I will can leave the hospital in two days but I won’t to be able to come back to Miami until probably two weeks later, the good think is I will spend more time with my family. But at least I will be able tomorrow to watch the final and I hope Rafa will give me a great time

Take care Carol, obey the doctors and get well soon.