2018 Australian Open, Melbourne - ATP GRAND SLAM

[El Dude]

Rest of tournament predictions:
Rafa d. Cilic
Grigor d. Edmund
Chung d. Sandgren
Roger d. Berdych

Grigor d. Rafa
Roger d. Chung

Roger d. Grigor

 

[brokenshoelace]

It's very ironic, Chung's game reminds me a bit of Istomin, who beat Novak here last year, except he does everything better and is more aggressive. You rarely see players hit the ball so flat these days, and outside of his iffy serve (more on that in a bit), he almost literally has every shot in the book, including a decent slice and really solid volleys. He also has a super interesting mix of aggression and counter-punching. He takes control of points and rarely lets go, but he also defends like a mad man and turns rallies around from insane positions (not unlike Novak in that sense).

His biggest problem however, is the lack of a dominating serve. I don't know if this tournament is just a one off and he'll fade back into whatever he was doing before this breakout (and we've seen that happen very often), or if he's here to stay, but if it's the latter, he will suffer what guys like Nishikori and Davydenko suffered from in the past, despite their baseline proficiency. And while I fully expect him to be in the semi finals, I think Federer is a horrible match-up for him because he won't get too many sniffs at Roger's serve (unlike Novak where he broke him almost at will), and his own serve is way too breakable. Not to mention, Roger's mix of aggression and variety will probably disrupt his game.

 

[brokenshoelace]

As for tonight, I'm really, really worried about Nadal against Cilic. Rafa needs to step it up in a big way.

 

[Denis]

As for tonight, I'm really, really worried about Nadal against Cilic. Rafa needs to step it up in a big way.

I’m happy to read that but you are generally pessimistic about rafas chances. I can’t think of a way Rafa can lose this tbh.

 

[mrzz]

His defense is insane, and there aren't many guys who can go toe to toe with him on the baseline. Coming to the net against him is suicide. Basically like young Rafa: he can find a pass no matter how far away he is and no matter how well you are covering the net.

Not to take away credit for his win, but much of his success rate at passes comes from a rather passive attitude from Djokovic at the net, combined to some "headless chicken" style net rushes. Djokovic's "touch" was in fact quite good when he actually volleyed, but some balls he just stood staring at where quite catchable (like one crosscourt pass which ended up in all highlight heels. Hell, I would have reached that ball, prime Djokovic would have danced around it prior to volleying it upside down with a tweener). Either his fitness level has dropped immensely, or he just did not care enough...

 

[brokenshoelace]

I’m happy to read that but you are generally pessimistic about rafas chances. I can’t think of a way Rafa can lose this tbh.

Not pessimistic per se, a little realistic. To be clear I think he's the favorite in this match and I pick him to win but that's because I trust he'll raise his level. However, he hasn't been impressive at all this tournament.

 

[Moxie]

It's very ironic, Chung's game reminds me a bit of Istomin, who beat Novak here last year, except he does everything better and is more aggressive. You rarely see players hit the ball so flat these days, and outside of his iffy serve (more on that in a bit), he almost literally has every shot in the book, including a decent slice and really solid volleys. He also has a super interesting mix of aggression and counter-punching. He takes control of points and rarely lets go, but he also defends like a mad man and turns rallies around from insane positions (not unlike Novak in that sense).

His biggest problem however, is the lack of a dominating serve. I don't know if this tournament is just a one off and he'll fade back into whatever he was doing before this breakout (and we've seen that happen very often), or if he's here to stay, but if it's the latter, he will suffer what guys like Nishikori and Davydenko suffered from in the past, despite their baseline proficiency. And while I fully expect him to be in the semi finals, I think Federer is a horrible match-up for him because he won't get too many sniffs at Roger's serve (unlike Novak where he broke him almost at will), and his own serve is way too breakable. Not to mention, Roger's mix of aggression and variety will probably disrupt his game.

You do know that he won the #NextGen tourney, right? And he's young, so he could improve that serve. Obviously, this was his breakout on the big stage with a big scalp, but I think he's progressing nicely. Seems like he's committed, and he's really popular in Korea, so I'd be surprised if he just fades into obscurity.

 

[Moxie]

Stan and Djoke shouldn’t have played AO. All they accomplished was aggravation of their injury. It will now take even longer to heal.

Fed didn’t look good in his last watch. If he doesn’t step up, he’ll lose to Berd.

Thoroughly enjoyed the Jung v Djoke match except having to witness Djoke playing with pain. That kid is mentally and physically tough. Very happy for him. The traditional bow to his parents post match was heart-warming.

I'm pretty sure that Stan's problem was he new shoulder injury, just to be accurate. He did say the knees were fine. As to Djokovic, he said that, while the elbow wasn't 100%, the doctors told him that playing would aggravate it. Now, you never really know if what they feed you is completely true, but that's what they said. Or, as was the case with Del Potro, Novak's doctors could have been wrong, and it is worse.

 

[El Dude]

What I observed of Chung at the NextGen final, @Moxie, is that he has a very high "floor" of performance, and was a good contrast to Rublev - who had a higher "ceiling" but was more erratic. Chung was steady and hung there and won, partially through pushing Rublev to implode.

 

[brokenshoelace]

You do know that he won the #NextGen tourney, right?

No I honestly don't. I didn't pay attention to that at all but it's nice to know he didn't just come out of nowhere as I really like his game.

 

[brokenshoelace]

I'm pretty sure that Stan's problem was he new shoulder injury, just to be accurate. He did say the knees were fine. As to Djokovic, he said that, while the elbow wasn't 100%, the doctors told him that playing would aggravate it. Now, you never really know if what they feed you is completely true, but that's what they said. Or, as was the case with Del Potro, Novak's doctors could have been wrong, and it is worse.

The doctors said that playing would or wouldn't aggravate it? I think you meant the latter otherwise it was a really strange decision to play. Just asking for clarification.

 

[Moxie]

The doctors said that playing would or wouldn't aggravate it? I think you meant the latter otherwise it was a really strange decision to play. Just asking for clarification.

Sorry...I meant "wouldn't." Seems like he tried to come back a bit early because it was the AO. Hopefully he'll just require more rest.

 

[Moxie]

No I honestly don't. I didn't pay attention to that at all but it's nice to know he didn't just come out of nowhere as I really like his game.

He was the only undefeated player in it, and he may not have dropped a set. Over the "bigger names," like Shapo and Khatchanov. Beat Rublev in the final.

 

[Moxie]

What I observed of Chung at the NextGen final, @Moxie, is that he has a very high "floor" of performance, and was a good contrast to Rublev - who had a higher "ceiling" but was more erratic. Chung was steady and hung there and won, partially through pushing Rublev to implode.

I can agree with that. I like Chung because he takes a measured approach. He's very mature and seems smart on the court. As with a lot of Asian players, he's gained a lot of popularity in that part of the world, so, while we don't so much see him as a "star," he is considered as such in Asia. When I saw him at the USO 2 years ago, there was a big Asian/Asian-American crowd there to cheer for him. It does make me laugh that everyone keeps trying to peg him as small, and then gets surprised. I've been trying to tell people for 2 years that he's a pretty big guy. By which I mean good tennis size...Rafa/Roger range. But he's also pretty sturdy. Not slight or lanky like Djokovic or Murray.

 

[10isfan]

I expect there to be a string of tennis players coming out of Korea in twenty years because of Chung. They won’t necessarily be good due to the poor coaching quality there unless the country imports talent.

Chung should have a big following in Indian Wells and USO because Los Angeles and Flushing have a Koreatown and big Asian populations.

 

[El Dude]

People think Chung is small probably because his legs are like tree trunks. If he's really 6'3" he must be a huge guy.

 

[Moxie]

People think Chung is small probably because his legs are like tree trunks. If he's really 6'3" he must be a huge guy.

Let's stop pretending. It's because he's Asian, and they see a small guy. He's listed at 6'2". But I saw him up close - he's very solidly built, as you say.

 

[El Dude]

Let's stop pretending. It's because he's Asian, and they see a small guy. He's listed at 6'2". But I saw him up close - he's very solidly built, as you say.

Haha, OK, fair enough - that probably has something to do with it.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Let's stop pretending. It's because he's Asian, and they see a small guy. He's listed at 6'2". But I saw him up close - he's very solidly built, as you say.

No, it is not quite race prejudice. For a guy that tall, his legs are short thus making him move easily in the court.

 

[Moxie]

No, it is not quite race prejudice. For a guy that tall, his legs are short thus making him move easily in the court.

Britbox was telling me 2 years ago he didn't have a great future because he was too small. I told him he wasn't. And on this thread people totally misrepresented his size until some genius looked it up. I've never seen a player's size so misrepresented. Normally people look it up. In Chung's case there has be a lot of assuming. I have a theory as to why, that's all.

You know who else has short legs and a long torso? Richard Gasquet. He looks short on TV, too, but no one talks about him being too small. He's 6'1", btw.