2018 Australian Open - Early Chatter

[britbox]

All the big names will be back for the Australian Open... it's one of the reasons why I love this tournament - injury pullouts are usually pretty minimal with it being so early in the season.

At this early stage in the game, the odds (Sportsbet) are looking like this:

Federer 4
Nadal 4.33
Djokovic 4.5
Murray 7
Wawrinka 17
Zverev 17
Dimitrov 19
Kyrgios 26
Raonic 26
Del Potro 26
Thiem 34
Nishikori 41
Cilic 41
Goffin 51
Tsonga 67
Shapalov 81

I'm sure there will be a few fluctuations before the tournament begins.

As it stands, this is what I believe the top guns are committed to, pre-Australian Open:

Federer: Hopman
Nadal: Brisbane
Murray: Brisbane
Djokovic: Doha

Wawrinka hasn't committed to anything pre-AO.

In other news, Bernard Tomic decided not to bother entering a wildcard playoff. His only route to the AO is through general qualies or if Tennis Australia gives him a discretionary wildcard - I've got a feeling that they won't.

 

[Moxie]

Interesting (and wrong, imo) that Zverev gets slightly better odds than Dimitrov, given Dimitrov's history there, and the fact that he just won the YEC.

 

[mrzz]

^Maybe everyone is expecting a huge letdown from Dimitrov. In fact I wouldn't be surprised by an early exit -- as I wouldn't be surprised by another deep run.

Anyway, all the big names at low seeds will make it a very interesting tournament. I can't say who, but at the very least one from the group of players who finished 2016 earlier I guess will come back very strong. And we will have a reasonably healthy del Potro decently seeded for the first time in years (even if this time it means less, with so many good guys low seeded).

With Djokovic defending 250 points from the first week this year (and Murray 150), Djokovic could fall lower than the current 12th spot and Murray lower than the current 16 -- so theoretically we might have big 3 + 1 + 1 match ups starting as early as the third round!

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

Ok, big 5 matches from 3rd round. Exciting! Djokovic or Murray will be hoping not to draw Roger in the 3rd round.

In 20 days time, we will know more about the comeback players' forms I guess.

 

[The_Grand_Slam]

^Maybe everyone is expecting a huge letdown from Dimitrov. In fact I wouldn't be surprised by an early exit -- as I wouldn't be surprised by another deep run.

Anyway, all the big names at low seeds will make it a very interesting tournament. I can't say who, but at the very least one from the group of players who finished 2016 earlier I guess will come back very strong. And we will have a reasonably healthy del Potro decently seeded for the first time in years (even if this time it means less, with so many good guys low seeded).

With Djokovic defending 250 points from the first week this year (and Murray 150), Djokovic could fall lower than the current 12th spot and Murray lower than the current 16 -- so theoretically we might have big 3 + 1 + 1 match ups starting as early as the third round!

Agreed.
He disappointed in US Open after winning Cincinnati.Might be the same with Australian after winning Nitto ATP finals

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Ok, big 5 matches from 3rd round. Exciting! Djokovic or Murray will be hoping not to draw Roger in the 3rd round.

In 20 days time, we will know more about the comeback players' forms I guess.

As long as a player is seeded in top 16 spots, they will not have to face a higher seeded player before R4. So, Novak (being currently ranked 12) cannot possibly draw Fedal in R3. Murray is currently ranked 16. If he falls even one spot, he faces the danger that you mention.

 

[El Dude]

The odds look pretty good, but I'd rank Del Potro higher and maybe Dimitrov up a spot or two. I see those two as the dark horses.

 

[mrzz]

That cannot happen as all of them are seeded players as we still have 32 seeds.

But if Murray falls below #16 before the seeds are defined, yes he could meet Federer or Nadal at round 3. If all seeds survive the first three rounds, we have all seeds playing each other and the higher seeds would face the lower ones, right?

 

[GameSetAndMath]

But if Murray falls below #16 before the seeds are defined, yes he could meet Federer or Nadal at round 3. If all seeds survive the first three rounds, we have all seeds playing each other and the higher seeds would face the lower ones, right?

Oops, you are right. I posted my message in a hurry. Murray could potentially face Federer or Nadal in R3, if he falls below #16 in seeding postion. Fixed my post.

 

[Moxie]

The odds look pretty good, but I'd rank Del Potro higher and maybe Dimitrov up a spot or two. I see those two as the dark horses.

Obviously everyone is going to be on tenterhooks for the draw, but I think you're right that Dimitrov and Del Potro stand to be the best to surprise, but are they even dark horses, anymore, at their ranking? I think they should be considered reasonable options. Kyrigios is a dark horse.

 

[lldhub]

I think Del Potro and Kyrgios for different reasons can be dark horses for the Australian Open: they are both extremely talented players and theoretically a grand slam tournament is within their reach (and DelPo has already won one), but no one knows if DelPo's left wrist recovery can be considered completed, while Kyrgios, on the other hand, is still so far the least reliable bet. So, they will play without much expectations, in my opinion. I would be surprised if Dimitrov won this Australian Open: not because it is beyond his reach, but because I think many, for his ranking and convincing win at the ATP finals, would put him among the candidates for the trophy. So there will be a lot of pressure on him, at least a big share of it, and I am not sure I would risk money he can cope with it for two weeks.
Zverev is in my opinion not mentally enough mature for winning a Gran Slam tournament. However, if there are enough conjunctions, such as poor physical conditions of top players, he can be a surprise. In this respect I am curious to know if Nadal, Djokovic and Murray will be fit enough to compete. Djokovic and Murray have been out of the competitions for many months, while Nadal's knee is a mystery: can the one month rest be enough for decent recovery? Federer's schedule for the year was a total success in 2017: will he have right in 2018 too in saving his energy for his main goals?

 

[britbox]

I think Del Potro and Kyrgios for different reasons can be dark horses for the Australian Open: they are both extremely talented players and theoretically a grand slam tournament is within their reach (and DelPo has already won one), but no one knows if DelPo's left wrist recovery can be considered completed, while Kyrgios, on the other hand, is still so far the least reliable bet. So, they will play without much expectations, in my opinion. I would be surprised if Dimitrov won this Australian Open: not because it is beyond his reach, but because I think many, for his ranking and convincing win at the ATP finals, would put him among the candidates for the trophy. So there will be a lot of pressure on him, at least a big share of it, and I am not sure I would risk money he can cope with it for two weeks.
Zverev is in my opinion not mentally enough mature for winning a Gran Slam tournament. However, if there are enough conjunctions, such as poor physical conditions of top players, he can be a surprise. In this respect I am curious to know if Nadal, Djokovic and Murray will be fit enough to compete. Djokovic and Murray have been out of the competitions for many months, while Nadal's knee is a mystery: can the one month rest be enough for decent recovery? Federer's schedule for the year was a total success in 2017: will he have right in 2018 too in saving his energy for his main goals?

Welcome @lldhub - Agreed, there are lots of question marks over a lot of the top players. With Federer, I think he'll use the same blueprint as last year and skip the clay swing. I do think he will play Roland Garros again before he retires, but it'll probably be a swan song in his final year on the tour. I don't think 2018 will be the last.

 

[El Dude]

The only caveat I have with that, @britbox, is that I think he'll be tempted to play RG if he wins the AO. You know why.

 

[Moxie]

The only caveat I have with that, @britbox, is that I think he'll be tempted to play RG if he wins the AO. You know why.

I'm guessing for the potential double-career Slam, and to keep open the possibility of the CYGS, as it's surely his last shot?

 

[isabelle]

it'ld be funny to see a Muzza / Manacor's bull in first week

 

[mrzz]

it'ld be funny to see a Muzza / Manacor's bull in first week

It would be even better with Djokovic waiting in the wings for the next round (also a possibility as Djokovic is seeded bellow #8).

 

[mcekovic]

Djokovic should not be underestimated for AO 2018. His absolute decline is huge, but mostly due that his peak in 2015 and first half of 2016 was so, so high.
End result is that his level did not drop to very low absolute level, as many anticipate, although the decline was relatively huge!
For example, he still had the 3-rd winning percentage in 2017 season, immediately after Federer and Nadal:

1

SUI Roger Federer 91.23% 52 5 57
2

ESP Rafael Nadal 85.90% 67 11 78
3

SRB Novak Djokovic 80.00% 32 8 40
4

BUL Grigor Dimitrov 72.06% 49 19 68
5

FRA Jo Wilfried Tsonga 71.70% 38 15 53
6

GER Alexander Zverev 71.43% 55 22 77
6

GBR Andy Murray 71.43% 25 10 35
8

BEL David Goffin 71.08% 59 24 83
9

CAN Milos Raonic 70.73% 29 12 41
10

ARG Juan Martin Del Potro 70.37% 38 16 54

80% winning pct in a bad, bad season is not too bad at all!
For example Federer had winning percentage of 72.6% in his bad season in 2013: http://www.ultimatetennisstatistics.com/playerProfile?name=Roger Federer&tab=performanceChart
And Nadal had winning percentage of 73.6% is his worst season recently (in 2016): http://www.ultimatetennisstatistics.com/playerProfile?name=Rafael Nadal&tab=performanceChart

 

[the AntiPusher]

All the big names will be back for the Australian Open... it's one of the reasons why I love this tournament - injury pullouts are usually pretty minimal with it being so early in the season.

At this early stage in the game, the odds (Sportsbet) are looking like this:

Federer 4
Nadal 4.33
Djokovic 4.5
Murray 7
Wawrinka 17
Zverev 17
Dimitrov 19
Kyrgios 26
Raonic 26
Del Potro 26
Thiem 34
Nishikori 41
Cilic 41
Goffin 51
Tsonga 67
Shapalov 81

I'm sure there will be a few fluctuations before the tournament begins.

As it stands, this is what I believe the top guns are committed to, pre-Australian Open:

Federer: Hopman
Nadal: Brisbane
Murray: Brisbane
Djokovic: Doha

Wawrinka hasn't committed to anything pre-AO.

In other news, Bernard Tomic decided not to bother entering a wildcard playoff. His only route to the AO is through general qualies or if Tennis Australia gives him a discretionary wildcard - I've got a feeling that they won't.

This year because of the twins(Novak and Andy), the AO draw is gonna play a major factor if they make it to the quarterfinals. Especially Novak may be a pure nightmare for the Fedal. A course the naysayers will say that these are not the same players as they were pre 2017, i beg to differ..we shall see.

 

[El Dude]

I'm guessing for the potential double-career Slam, and to keep open the possibility of the CYGS, as it's surely his last shot?

Yeah. As unlikely as it is, I'm wondering if after winning Wimbledon he was day-dreaming about if he had won RG.

 

[the AntiPusher]

The only caveat I have with that, @britbox, is that I think he'll be tempted to play RG if he wins the AO. You know why.

Nah.. Not at this point in his career.. Roger would ruin his chances at Wimbledon especially since Djoker is Back