2017 Wimbledon Final: Federer v Cilic

[MartyB]

All

 

[MartyB]

All things being equal Fed wins this match. He is prepared healthy and on alert. His 2 previous opponents big guys big serves and came through beautifully. It is irrelevant how many sets this will take for Fed to win but I suspect it will be minimal. I did happen to catch "Cilic" loss to Lopez at Queens and those weaknesses will be exposed by Fed. Let's go Roger!

 

[Front242]

Btw, more on Nikethamide that Cilic was caught with in his system. Polish kid was caught doping with the shit in his system too. "Walilko was 12 when he tested positive for the banned stimulant nikethamide after an international kart race in Germany last July. It was the driver’s first doping test. “He was very famous in Poland and, one day after, he was a criminal child,” Lehner said in a telephone interview. “He has good chances to go to a career in motor sport, and now with a two-year ban it’s finished.”

http://www.the42.ie/13-year-old-karting-champ-appeals-doping-ban-113278-Mar2011/

Here's more on how it works with glucose lozanges and if people still think Cilic was innocent of doping they're fooling themselves...they give it to horses too.

"Trejo added that Nikethamide is produced only in Argentina and Europe, and that it has gained black-market favor with high-altitude mountaineers who use it in lozenge form to gain a respiratory efficiency boost. The last-known Thoroughbred positive for Nikethamide resulted in a six-month suspension and $5,000 fine for West Virginia-based trainer Chris Grove in 2013. In recent years, the banned substance has turned up in some human athletes who tested positive for it, most notably professional tennis player Marin Cilic, also in 2013."

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/75000-fine-4-year-suspension-for-new-mexico-trainer/

 

[DarthFed]

I am hoping for a Roger in 4 sets victory, but I am scared of this match up. Marin is so solid from the baseline and his serve has improved ever since he changed it. Roger has to avoid the baseline exchanges like the plague, use the slice cleverly, bring Marin in as much as he can because that is one area I think Marin is still a bit uncomfortable, and of course, pass him. Roger has to serve better than past matches and use all of his variety on the serve as well.
Marin is focused , ready and hungry and he knows he can take on Roger. If he is even just close to that US Open match form, he can run away with this. The fact that this is grass is giving me some confidence as a Rodge fan but not much.

So your thoughts are "to fight this juiced up lord from the baseline, strong enough Roger is not"

Not sure I agree there. Fed has been pretty lethal from the baseline all year, this isn't like last year or even 2014. To me the bigger concern is the ROS. Cilic has improved his serve and it is better than Berd's and Fed was struggling on the return a lot yesterday including the 2nd serve. Fed of course returned amazing against Raonic and most everyone else this year and Milos' serve is still well above Marin's. So hopefully we get that ROS out of Fed and not the one yesterday.

I also think an underrated factor here is that Fed's last two matches have been a good preparation for Cilic. He faced a bigger serve in the QF and in Berd he faced a guy who hits probably harder. Cilic moves significantly better than both though and is better all around. It will be the biggest test Roger has faced at Wimbledon for sure. But on the other hand Cilic has faced two big servers in Muller and Querrey but they are nothing great aside from that. It will be a much bigger step up in class that he is up against tomorrow compared to vice versa. Marin is dangerous and always figured he was the 1st or 2nd biggest threat on this side. If Murray had survived to the final I wouldn't be concerned in the slightest but Cilic has more than a puncher's chance tomorrow.

A nice factor should be the crowd. The only ones rooting for Marin will be his team and if his mom is in the crowd we will look for a woman holding a needle.

 

[Federberg]

So your thoughts are "to fight this juiced up lord from the baseline, strong enough Roger is not"

Not sure I agree there. Fed has been pretty lethal from the baseline all year, this isn't like last year or even 2014. To me the bigger concern is the ROS. Cilic has improved his serve and it is better than Berd's and Fed was struggling on the return a lot yesterday including the 2nd serve. Fed of course returned amazing against Raonic and most everyone else this year and Milos' serve is still well above Marin's. So hopefully we get that ROS out of Fed and not the one yesterday.

I also think an underrated factor here is that Fed's last two matches have been a good preparation for Cilic. He faced a bigger serve in the QF and in Berd he faced a guy who hits probably harder. Cilic moves significantly better than both though and is better all around. It will be the biggest test Roger has faced at Wimbledon for sure. But on the other hand Cilic has faced two big servers in Muller and Querrey but they are nothing great aside from that. It will be a much bigger step up in class that he is up against tomorrow compared to vice versa. Marin is dangerous and always figured he was the 1st or 2nd biggest threat on this side. If Murray had survived to the final I wouldn't be concerned in the slightest but Cilic has more than a puncher's chance tomorrow.

A nice factor should be the crowd. The only ones rooting for Marin will be his team and if his mom is in the crowd we will look for a woman holding a needle.

I completely agree. Cilic has not faced anyone to prepare him for what he's going to have to handle tomorrow. People seem to forget that Marin has only beaten Roger once, at Flushing after Roger had played a 5 setter against Monfils. On top of that the conditions were perfect for Marin that day. Granted he was close last year in Wimbledon, but Raonic beat that same Roger and look what happened to him this year. Look I'm not saying he doesn't have a punchers chance, but like DF I think it's all going to come down to Roger's ROS. If he's in Marin's games it's over and I don't think it would be particularly close in that scenario. That's what I'm going to be watching for. At least this year Roger hasn't peaked too early. I don't think I recall a match so far this Wimbledon where I've seen TMF, surely he's due tomorrow?

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

So your thoughts are "to fight this juiced up lord from the baseline, strong enough Roger is not"

Not sure I agree there. Fed has been pretty lethal from the baseline all year, this isn't like last year or even 2014. To me the bigger concern is the ROS. Cilic has improved his serve and it is better than Berd's and Fed was struggling on the return a lot yesterday including the 2nd serve. Fed of course returned amazing against Raonic and most everyone else this year and Milos' serve is still well above Marin's. So hopefully we get that ROS out of Fed and not the one yesterday.

I also think an underrated factor here is that Fed's last two matches have been a good preparation for Cilic. He faced a bigger serve in the QF and in Berd he faced a guy who hits probably harder. Cilic moves significantly better than both though and is better all around. It will be the biggest test Roger has faced at Wimbledon for sure. But on the other hand Cilic has faced two big servers in Muller and Querrey but they are nothing great aside from that. It will be a much bigger step up in class that he is up against tomorrow compared to vice versa. Marin is dangerous and always figured he was the 1st or 2nd biggest threat on this side. If Murray had survived to the final I wouldn't be concerned in the slightest but Cilic has more than a puncher's chance tomorrow.

A nice factor should be the crowd. The only ones rooting for Marin will be his team and if his mom is in the crowd we will look for a woman holding a needle.

So very mean

No I do not disagree with most of what you say, except the baseline part. Maybe it is because I still have visions of the US open match in my head. And I agree, if this was Murray, I would be sleeping like a baby tonight. Marin has a certain edge.

 

[Front242]

^ That's what I'm hoping too. Hasn't come close to peaking and if we see a performance like the one against Murray in the 2015 semi I'll be well chuffed.

 

[mrzz]

For me the key tomorrow is Federer´s serve. I agree that the ROS against Berdych was bad, but honestly just about everything was bellow par in that match. On the other hand, if you look at Cilic´s stats, and even better, at the score lines of his matches on grass this season, you can see that his own ROS is nothing special. Most sets he won were just a lone break or went to a tie-breaker, and he lost a good deal of sets.

Of course everyone has a tough time against a big server, but if you combine his sets against good/big servers on grass it is around 50/50. So if Federer is serving well he will hardly broken, and no way he is not losing this match in this case.

 

[Federberg]

For me the key tomorrow is Federer´s serve. I agree that the ROS against Berdych was bad, but honestly just about everything was bellow par in that match. On the other hand, if you look at Cilic´s stats, and even better, at the score lines of his matches on grass this season, you can see that his own ROS is nothing special. Most sets he won were just a lone break or went to a tie-breaker, and he lost a good deal of sets.

Of course everyone has a tough time against a big server, but if you combine his sets against good/big servers on grass it is around 50/50. So if Federer is serving well he will hardly broken, and no way he is not losing this match in this case.

have to disagree. It's Roger's all about ROS. If Roger's ROS is working well that's the key. This is because the more difficult Cilic finds it to navigate his serve the less free (and confident) he'll feel attacking Roger's serve. The converse is not so important. We all know Roger can get out of his service games even if he's not having one of his all time clutch serving days. Watch the match up between the two, as good as Cilic is from the baseline, Roger's just a little bit better and he has so many ways to cause Cilic problems with his superior movement

 

[Moxie]

I completely agree. Cilic has not faced anyone to prepare him for what he's going to have to handle tomorrow. People seem to forget that Marin has only beaten Roger once, at Flushing after Roger had played a 5 setter against Monfils. On top of that the conditions were perfect for Marin that day. Granted he was close last year in Wimbledon, but Raonic beat that same Roger and look what happened to him this year. Look I'm not saying he doesn't have a punchers chance, but like DF I think it's all going to come down to Roger's ROS. If he's in Marin's games it's over and I don't think it would be particularly close in that scenario. That's what I'm going to be watching for. At least this year Roger hasn't peaked too early. I don't think I recall a match so far this Wimbledon where I've seen TMF, surely he's due tomorrow?

Serious question: what about the conditions that day do you think made it perfect for Cilic? Weather tomorrow looks good...nice temp, but humid, no real chance of rain, so the roof should be open, and a bit of a breeze.

 

[mrzz]

have to disagree. It's Roger's all about ROS. If Roger's ROS is working well that's the key. This is because the more difficult Cilic finds it to navigate his serve the less free (and confident) he'll feel attacking Roger's serve. The converse is not so important. We all know Roger can get out of his service games even if he's not having one of his all time clutch serving days. Watch the match up between the two, as good as Cilic is from the baseline, Roger's just a little bit better and he has so many ways to cause Cilic problems with his superior movement

Obviously that with Federer having a good ROS day everything will flow better. But still, he is not losing this if his serve is clicking. His ROS could be fantastic, but receiving on grass is always an uphill battle, and if his serve falters he could still lose to an inspired Cilic.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

The last missing piece in this puzzle is now out. Tignor has jinxed Cilic . So Feddies, sleep peacefully.

 

[Moxie]

The last missing piece in this puzzle is now out. Tignor has jinxed Cilic . So Feddies, sleep peacefully.

I thought you were just over the Tignor jinx. I think Tignore said it as an anti-jinx on Fed. But anyway, I hope you do all sleep peacefully. Either way, it won't change the outcome.

 

[10isfan]

Tignor almost always picks the higher seed to win. I'll have to read his rationale for predicting a victory for Cilic. Twelve hours until we know the outcome. Very exciting! Good night, fellow Fedheads and tennis fans.

 

[britbox]

I wonder if Tignor's life depended on it... would he still pick Cilic?

 

[Moxie]

I wonder if Tignor's life depended on it... would he still pick Cilic?

No way. And he doesn't even make a good argument. I believe he's picking against his own jinx. Seriously.

 

[DarthFed]

Tignor is a Rafa fan, I highly doubt he wants Roger to win.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

In most statistical categories (limited to performance in Wimby'17) Cilic seems to be leading. Most notably, Cilic has served 130 aces in comparison to Fed's 64 aces. Although it must be mentioned that, Cilic played 3 extra sets than Fed and in general Cilic faced lower quality opponents than Fed.

Also Craig O' Shannesey, a respected analyst and author of a former ATP column called "brain games", picks Cilic.

CRAIG O’SHANNESSY: An improved Cilic most dangerous in ‘beast mode’

Somehow, we all seem to have forgotten Roger Federer’s quarter-final match at The Championships in 2016. His opponent was none other than Marin Cilic.

Cilic had three match points deep in the fourth set, and could have, maybe should have sent the Swiss star packing. Cilic won the first two sets 7-6(4), 6-4, dropped the third set 6-3 and then could not get a return back in play as Federer saved all three match points on his serve.

Here’s what happened on Cilic’s three match points in the fourth:

• 4-5, 30-40: 104mph unreturned second serve down the middle to Cilic’s forehand
• 5-6, 30-40: 120mph first serve ace out wide
• Tie-break, 6-7: 108mph unreturned second serve down the middle to Cilic’s forehand

Cilic won’t make those mistakes again. That near-miss last year will serve him well to take the next step this year and finally defeat Federer on Centre Court at Wimbledon - this time for the title.

In many ways, Cilic is playing better this year at SW19 than he was last year. It’s an ominous warning for Federer and his legion of fans.

Let’s start with the return of serve - the area where Cilic desperately needed one more ball in play to defeat the Swiss last year.

In 2016, Cilic made 68 per cent of his returns for the tournament. This year he is a click higher at 69 per cent. There’s your one more return right there.

In 2016 at The Championships, Cilic won 49 per cent of his opponents’ second serve points. That’s jumped up to 57 per cent this year. Cilic won 68 points at the net through his first five rounds at The Championships in 2016. This year, he has shown much more commitment to the net, winning 91 points at the front of the court during his first five matches.

He won 55 per cent of his second serve points in 2016. He is at 58 per cent this year. I could keep going, but you get the picture…

The 2017 version of Cilic at Wimbledon is an improved version. There is no denying that Federer has also raised his level this season, but nobody can stay on the court when Cilic enters “beast mode”. So many indicators suggest that is exactly what is going to happen in Sunday’s final.

 

[kskate2]

Please join us for the live chat of this match. On the main forum page you should see the live chat at the top half of your screen

 

[kskate2]

Welcome to the live chat for the Gentleman's Final match of Marin Cilic vs. Roger Federer