2017 US Open Semifinals: Nadal vs. Del Potro

Who wins?

  • Nadal in three sets

    Votes: 1 9.1%
  • Nadal in four sets

    Votes: 4 36.4%
  • Nadal in five sets

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Del Potro in three sets

    Votes: 2 18.2%
  • Del Potro in four sets

    Votes: 4 36.4%
  • Del Potro in five sets

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    11
  • Poll closed .

imjimmy

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No-one can explain talent, it's an abstract concept.

Nadal has every shot in the book and has even become an accomplished volleyer and good doubles player. I would say that his only semi-weakness is a lack of a huge first serve and i believe this is a product of playing lefty as a natural right hander. If we watch the Giles Muller vs Rafa match in this year's Wimby, the only difference was the serve, Muller basically served his way through the match. Aside from a lack of a huge first serve, Nadal simply can do it all.

Great post overall.
But I wanted to dispute the part in bold. I disagree that serve is Nadal's biggest weakness (or only weakness). Yes - his serve is not as good as Federer's or even Djokovic's. However it is still decent. Because of his lefty spin it seems deceptively easier to return than it actually is. Furthermore Nadal has shown the capability of serving big overall as in Fall 2010 (UsOpen and beyond) where he served more than 130 mph.

IMO by far the weakest part of Nadal's game is his return of serve. Especially on the forehand. Because of his extreme western grip and huge follow-through, Nadal shanks a lot (and I mean a LOT) of serves in the net. To deal with this, he tries standing very far back to return serve. The problem with that is two fold. If he doesn't get hold of the ball (which happens often), he returns very short. Plus most big servers can use the wide serve against him as he stands so far back.

The fact that Nadal is still among the top players in terms of return points won and breaking his opponent has more to do with Rafa's ground game (once the rally goes neutral) than his ROS. One can only imagine what that stat would look like had Nadal been able to get more serve-returns into play by using a shorter back-swing. Or had the ability to be offensive on ROS as Djokovic or Murray can be.

In fact, I feel that Rafa's return of serve has declined with time. That, in part, explains his lack of success at Wimbledon. He finds it very hard to break big servers who can serve to his forehand all day and get either a shank or a short reply.

So overall I feel that the biggest impediment for Nadal on fastercourts is the ROS. In fact that is the only facet of his game, which I believe is not at a ATG level..
 

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Great post overall.
But I wanted to dispute the part in bold. I disagree that serve is Nadal's biggest weakness (or only weakness). Yes - his serve is not as good as Federer's or even Djokovic's. However it is still decent. Because of his lefty spin it seems deceptively easier to return than it actually is. Furthermore Nadal has shown the capability of serving big overall as in Fall 2010 (UsOpen and beyond) where he served more than 130 mph.

IMO by far the weakest part of Nadal's game is his return of serve. Especially on the forehand. Because of his extreme western grip and huge follow-through, Nadal shanks a lot (and I mean a LOT) of serves in the net. To deal with this, he tries standing very far back to return serve. The problem with that is two fold. If he doesn't get hold of the ball (which happens often), he returns very short. Plus most big servers can use the wide serve against him as he stands so far back.

The fact that Nadal is still among the top players in terms of return points won and breaking his opponent has more to do with Rafa's ground game (once the rally goes neutral) than his ROS. One can only imagine what that stat would look like had Nadal been able to get more serve-returns into play by using a shorter back-swing. Or had the ability to be offensive on ROS as Djokovic or Murray can be.

In fact, I feel that Rafa's return of serve has declined with time. That, in part, explains his lack of success at Wimbledon. He finds it very hard to break big servers who can serve to his forehand all day and get either a shank or a short reply.

So overall I feel that the biggest impediment for Nadal on fastercourts is the ROS. In fact that is the only facet of his game, which I believe is not at a ATG level..

Yeah I agree with this.

I don't think Nadal's serve is quite a weakness, although when he isn't playing well, the lack of free points on serve are often a liability. Then again when players aren't in form you can always point out to aspects of their games that aren't clicking.

On the flip-side, Nadal's return of serve, eve when playing well, is sub-par.

What I do agree on Mike with however, is the fact that it's amazing Nadal's won 16 slams without a powerful serve. It may not be a weakness, but for someone who doesn't get a ton of free points on serve, that's an amazing feat.
 
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the AntiPusher

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Great post overall.
But I wanted to dispute the part in bold. I disagree that serve is Nadal's biggest weakness (or only weakness). Yes - his serve is not as good as Federer's or even Djokovic's. However it is still decent. Because of his lefty spin it seems deceptively easier to return than it actually is. Furthermore Nadal has shown the capability of serving big overall as in Fall 2010 (UsOpen and beyond) where he served more than 130 mph.

IMO by far the weakest part of Nadal's game is his return of serve. Especially on the forehand. Because of his extreme western grip and huge follow-through, Nadal shanks a lot (and I mean a LOT) of serves in the net. To deal with this, he tries standing very far back to return serve. The problem with that is two fold. If he doesn't get hold of the ball (which happens often), he returns very short. Plus most big servers can use the wide serve against him as he stands so far back.

The fact that Nadal is still among the top players in terms of return points won and breaking his opponent has more to do with Rafa's ground game (once the rally goes neutral) than his ROS. One can only imagine what that stat would look like had Nadal been able to get more serve-returns into play by using a shorter back-swing. Or had the ability to be offensive on ROS as Djokovic or Murray can be.

In fact, I feel that Rafa's return of serve has declined with time. That, in part, explains his lack of success at Wimbledon. He finds it very hard to break big servers who can serve to his forehand all day and get either a shank or a short reply.

So overall I feel that the biggest impediment for Nadal on fastercourts is the ROS. In fact that is the only facet of his game, which I believe is not at a ATG level..
It's good someone like imjimmy can post the same thing I said 3-4 weeks ago and not get lambasted by those two trolls like I did prior to the beginning of the USO.

Dont be a stranger and I know you may share my same sentiments in regards that Rafa hasn't made the proper counters against Novak. Rafa will be very lucky to make it to the AO 2018 finals if he doesn't fix both parts(serve and ROS) of his game. Novak and probably Roger will expose these weaknesses with a quickness.
 
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Federberg

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It's good someone like imjimmy can post the same thing I said 3-4 weeks ago and not get lambasted by those two trolls like I did prior to the beginning of the USO.

Dont be a stranger and I know you may share my same sentiments in regards that Rafa hasn't made the proper counters against Novak. Rafa will be very lucky to make it to the AO 2018 finals if he doesn't fix both parts(serve and ROS) of his game. Novak and probably Roger will expose these weaknesses with a quickness.

Lol! I hope I wasn't one of the trolls. I thought I'd been deported from troll-land
 

imjimmy

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Yeah I agree with this.

I don't think Nadal's serve is quite a weakness, although when he isn't playing well, the lack of free points on serve are often a liability. Then again when players aren't in form you can always point out to aspects of their games that aren't clicking.

On the flip-side, Nadal's return of serve, eve when playing well, is sub-par.

What I do agree on Mike with however, is the fact that it's amazing Nadal's won 16 slams without a powerful serve. It may not be a weakness, but for someone who doesn't get a ton of free points on serve, that's an amazing feat.

True. There are very few players who are up there in the slam numbers without a big serve.

I was just comparing the two shots: serve and the serve return. The serve, while not world-class, is still decent overall. The return of serve, however, always remains a mystery to Rafa. Even in the UsOpen he won, it showed in how he kept getting agitated against Daniels, Mayer by his inability to break serve. Or to even get the ball back in play on the AD side when most players serve wide to his forehand.

Looking at his matches in the past couple of years, I think his ROS is the biggest reason he's lost on grass and best of 3 matches on hards.
And while Nadal has improved pretty much every shot over the years (the backhand, serve, volleys etc), his return of serve remains abysmal (again by a top player standard). He cannot figure out a consistent position to return. Sometimes he stands far back. Other-times he stands further up on the deuce court. With Age, as his reflexes slow down, I think he's having a harder time getting the ball back in play.

Finally Rafa has served well this year in general (by his standards). In fact during the early part of North American hard court season (Montreal,Cincy), his serve was really the only thing keeping him in matches. Then by the UsOpen QF the rest of his game caught up.

I was just saying that MikeOne was pointing out the lack of big serve as Rafa's impediment to even more success. I don't think it's the serve as much as the return which hinders him outside clay and prevents him from racking up even more slams..
 

imjimmy

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It's good someone like imjimmy can post the same thing I said 3-4 weeks ago and not get lambasted by those two trolls like I did prior to the beginning of the USO.

Dont be a stranger and I know you may share my same sentiments in regards that Rafa hasn't made the proper counters against Novak. Rafa will be very lucky to make it to the AO 2018 finals if he doesn't fix both parts(serve and ROS) of his game. Novak and probably Roger will expose these weaknesses with a quickness.

I agree. I would say against Djokovic and Federer, Nadal probably needs to step up his aggression.
As far as I am concerned, Rafa hasn't countered the new aggressive tactics that Fed showed against him in IW/Miami/AO-Final.
It will be interesting to see what happens when they both meet again. Against Fed, the predictability of his CC forehand and CC backhand hurt Rafa.

The encouraging thing is that against Delpo (in the UsOpen SF) Rafa was willing to regularly hit his off-forehand (DTL and i/o) to make sure Delpo didn't camp on his backhand side. He also stepped in, took the backhand DTL early to change directions.

Can Rafa be less predictable and more aggressive against Federer/Djokovic next year? His off-forehand and backhand DTL will be key - as those shots break his usual patterns (cc forehand - cc backhand) and allow him to dominate earlier in the point. But these shots are lower percentage (for him) and he prefers to not use them as much. Clearly the regular play isn't enough if Federer or Djokovic are playing well..
 
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imjimmy

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I guess Carlos Moya echoes the need for Rafa to be more aggressive. Here are some quotes:
______________

Yet that is not, for Moyá, the whole story, which he says is more layered and complex.

Nadal does have a flaw. And one connected in Moyá’s mind with that ambiguity between his sensitive, insecure private self and the sporting battering ram the world sees.

In Moyá’s view, Nadal does not entirely shed his Clark Kent persona on court; the transformation to Superman, willed as it is and convincing as it looks, is not complete.

“He is more cautious than you might think on court. He has always been wary of his second serve, and that is why he does not hit his first as hard he could, given how powerful his physique is. You see the same caution in his open play.

I’ve trained with him a thousand times on court, and I’m always struck when I see him play a match by how much more aggressive he is in training, how many more winners he hits.

I’ve said to him many times, ‘Why don’t you loosen up more? Why not play more inside the court and go on the attack more, at least in the early rounds of tournaments, when you often come up against players you could beat with your eyes shut?’

But he doesn’t, or does so less often than he should. Maybe in part because of that refusal of his to believe how good he really is.”
 

the AntiPusher

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I guess Carlos Moya echoes the need for Rafa to be more aggressive. Here are some quotes:
______________

Yet that is not, for Moyá, the whole story, which he says is more layered and complex.

Nadal does have a flaw. And one connected in Moyá’s mind with that ambiguity between his sensitive, insecure private self and the sporting battering ram the world sees.

In Moyá’s view, Nadal does not entirely shed his Clark Kent persona on court; the transformation to Superman, willed as it is and convincing as it looks, is not complete.

“He is more cautious than you might think on court. He has always been wary of his second serve, and that is why he does not hit his first as hard he could, given how powerful his physique is. You see the same caution in his open play.

I’ve trained with him a thousand times on court, and I’m always struck when I see him play a match by how much more aggressive he is in training, how many more winners he hits.

I’ve said to him many times, ‘Why don’t you loosen up more? Why not play more inside the court and go on the attack more, at least in the early rounds of tournaments, when you often come up against players you could beat with your eyes shut?’

But he doesn’t, or does so less often than he should. Maybe in part because of that refusal of his to believe how good he really is.”
This is very true. Rafa is an absolute BEAST in training.. He would scare the living SH#T out of his naysayers such as Darth, Front, GSM and the rest of that god foresaven Federer tribes of AntiRafanites.
 
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the AntiPusher

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True. There are very few players who are up there in the slam numbers without a big serve.

I was just comparing the two shots: serve and the serve return. The serve, while not world-class, is still decent overall. The return of serve, however, always remains a mystery to Rafa. Even in the UsOpen he won, it showed in how he kept getting agitated against Daniels, Mayer by his inability to break serve. Or to even get the ball back in play on the AD side when most players serve wide to his forehand.

Looking at his matches in the past couple of years, I think his ROS is the biggest reason he's lost on grass and best of 3 matches on hards.
And while Nadal has improved pretty much every shot over the years (the backhand, serve, volleys etc), his return of serve remains abysmal (again by a top player standard). He cannot figure out a consistent position to return. Sometimes he stands far back. Other-times he stands further up on the deuce court. With Age, as his reflexes slow down, I think he's having a harder time getting the ball back in play.

Finally Rafa has served well this year in general (by his standards). In fact during the early part of North American hard court season (Montreal,Cincy), his serve was really the only thing keeping him in matches. Then by the UsOpen QF the rest of his game caught up.

I was just saying that MikeOne was pointing out the lack of big serve as Rafa's impediment to even more success. I don't think it's the serve as much as the return which hinders him outside clay and prevents him from racking up even more slams..
Good post Imjimmy..

Rafa as we all know is playing the game of tennis with his "bad" hand..lefty.. To most servers, the natural motion (rotary of the the hips, shoulders, turso, and snapping the wrist combination) just isnt smooth for Rafa. I bet he really could crank it if he served righty...I would like to see him serve up the T because its the place where most servers get more mph(s)..Also, serving down the T would keep the right handed returner honest. Most right handers, IMO tend to cheat to handle the wide serve because it pulls them off the court. Rafa's has been better this year and I would attribute that to Moya and being healthy.
 
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I guess Carlos Moya echoes the need for Rafa to be more aggressive. Here are some quotes:
______________

“He is more cautious than you might think on court. He has always been wary of his second serve, and that is why he does not hit his first as hard he could, given how powerful his physique is. You see the same caution in his open play.

So a "non injury" related reason why his MPH on his serve doesn't rev up more often. Moya thinks it's more mental then anything.

I'm just curious how much at this point Moya can reset some of Nadal's rallying patterns. Of course Uncle Toni was responsible for a lot of Rafa's success, but at the same time I think a new eyes/ears was needed a few years back. Toni being family made it complicated as far as being replaced.

Well , never say never, Roger revamped his BH, so it will be interesting as the top coach in charge what tweaks Carlos Moya implements (or tries to) in Rafa's game.

Agree that the ROS can be alarmingly bad at times.
 

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I guess Carlos Moya echoes the need for Rafa to be more aggressive. Here are some quotes:
______________

Yet that is not, for Moyá, the whole story, which he says is more layered and complex.

Nadal does have a flaw. And one connected in Moyá’s mind with that ambiguity between his sensitive, insecure private self and the sporting battering ram the world sees.

In Moyá’s view, Nadal does not entirely shed his Clark Kent persona on court; the transformation to Superman, willed as it is and convincing as it looks, is not complete.

“He is more cautious than you might think on court. He has always been wary of his second serve, and that is why he does not hit his first as hard he could, given how powerful his physique is. You see the same caution in his open play.

I’ve trained with him a thousand times on court, and I’m always struck when I see him play a match by how much more aggressive he is in training, how many more winners he hits.

I’ve said to him many times, ‘Why don’t you loosen up more? Why not play more inside the court and go on the attack more, at least in the early rounds of tournaments, when you often come up against players you could beat with your eyes shut?’

But he doesn’t, or does so less often than he should. Maybe in part because of that refusal of his to believe how good he really is.”
Thanks for posting that, @imjimmy. Interesting insights. On the notion of Rafa refusing "to believe how good he really is," I think this kind of Toni's fault. He himself has admitted that, if he had it to do over again, he wouldn't have been so hard on Rafael. In the interest of keeping his nephew grounded, and not have him get too up himself, Toni was sparse with praise and profligate with criticism. I'm not trying to do a "poor pitiful Rafa," here, but I do think that Rafa could do with a bit more of what Roger has, which is a healthier dose of the notion of his own greatness.
 

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I guess Carlos Moya echoes the need for Rafa to be more aggressive. Here are some quotes:
______________

Yet that is not, for Moyá, the whole story, which he says is more layered and complex.

Nadal does have a flaw. And one connected in Moyá’s mind with that ambiguity between his sensitive, insecure private self and the sporting battering ram the world sees.

In Moyá’s view, Nadal does not entirely shed his Clark Kent persona on court; the transformation to Superman, willed as it is and convincing as it looks, is not complete.

“He is more cautious than you might think on court. He has always been wary of his second serve, and that is why he does not hit his first as hard he could, given how powerful his physique is. You see the same caution in his open play.

I’ve trained with him a thousand times on court, and I’m always struck when I see him play a match by how much more aggressive he is in training, how many more winners he hits.

I’ve said to him many times, ‘Why don’t you loosen up more? Why not play more inside the court and go on the attack more, at least in the early rounds of tournaments, when you often come up against players you could beat with your eyes shut?’

But he doesn’t, or does so less often than he should. Maybe in part because of that refusal of his to believe how good he really is.”

yes Rafa in training is an absolute animal, while Fed in training is like walk in the park.....intensity is 10 times the difference.

A totally amazing video you should see is to find Rafa play with right hand on youtube, he serves harder than with his left hand, and plays the ground strokes even harder though without quite the spin (which lefties always do). Rafael Nadal playing with his right hand would easily be a top 10 player, there is no question about it.....but the down side is of course that players are a lot more used to playing righties so he loses that advantage.
 
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Ricardo

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Thanks for posting that, @imjimmy. Interesting insights. On the notion of Rafa refusing "to believe how good he really is," I think this kind of Toni's fault. He himself has admitted that, if he had it to do over again, he wouldn't have been so hard on Rafael. In the interest of keeping his nephew grounded, and not have him get too up himself, Toni was sparse with praise and profligate with criticism. I'm not trying to do a "poor pitiful Rafa," here, but I do think that Rafa could do with a bit more of what Roger has, which is a healthier dose of the notion of his own greatness.

Toni's fault? get real, Toni is the reason why Nadal even played tennis and also why him playing lefty is huge to his success. He is proven as one of if not the most successful coach ever, while you are not even a knowledgable tennis fan.
 

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Toni's fault? get real, Toni is the reason why Nadal even played tennis and also why him playing lefty is huge to his success. He is proven as one of if not the most successful coach ever, while you are not even a knowledgable tennis fan.
I have a huge respect for Toni. I'm just saying that he himself has said he was hard on Rafa, if that explains Moyà's comment, at all. It's worth consideration. As far as tennis knowledge, you seem to be more of an insult-machine and a general punter.
 
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Moxie

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yes Rafa in training is an absolute animal, while Fed in training is like walk in the park.....intensity is 10 times the difference.

A totally amazing video you should see is to find Rafa play with right hand on youtube, he serves harder than with his left hand, and plays the ground strokes even harder though without quite the spin (which lefties always do). Rafael Nadal playing with his right hand would easily be a top 10 player, there is no question about it.....but the down side is of course that players are a lot more used to playing righties so he loses that advantage.
I'm pretty sure every youtube video you might find of Rafa playing/practicing right-handed is just a flipped image. Look for the clues. He doesn't practice right-handed, as there is no point. His power is on his left side, which is why he's a left-footed striker in football.
 

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Thanks for posting that, @imjimmy. Interesting insights. On the notion of Rafa refusing "to believe how good he really is," I think this kind of Toni's fault. He himself has admitted that, if he had it to do over again, he wouldn't have been so hard on Rafael. In the interest of keeping his nephew grounded, and not have him get too up himself, Toni was sparse with praise and profligate with criticism. I'm not trying to do a "poor pitiful Rafa," here, but I do think that Rafa could do with a bit more of what Roger has, which is a healthier dose of the notion of his own greatness.

Moxie, I would say this is the third reason on why Nadal does not win a lot of titles outside of Clay: His belief or confidence. The first two are his serve and ROS.

Even at the US Open, when he was not confident, he was hitting the ball short and he was afraid to be aggressive on the return of the serve.

Now, every athlete when they are not confident they don't play well. But Nadal is the best at playing with confidence or momentum.

He might not be as consistent as Federer or Djokovic when it comes to level of play (these two are the best at maintaining a high consistent level) but when he does get confidence or momentum, then Nadal is hard to beat anywhere.

This is my analogy: Federer and Djokovic will more often play at level 8 or 9 consistently. Once in a while, they will reach level 10 and they become hard to beat.

On the other hand, Nadal's level fluctuates from 6 to 8 depending on his confidence and his opponent. But, when he gets to level 10 then he is really hard to beat both physically and mentally.

By the way, shutout to MikeOne, imjimmy, broken, AP, and Moxie for giving amazing analysis on Nadal's strengths and weaknesses! You guys are an amazing Rafael Nadal fans.
 

imjimmy

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So a "non injury" related reason why his MPH on his serve doesn't rev up more often. Moya thinks it's more mental then anything.

I'm just curious how much at this point Moya can reset some of Nadal's rallying patterns. Of course Uncle Toni was responsible for a lot of Rafa's success, but at the same time I think a new eyes/ears was needed a few years back. Toni being family made it complicated as far as being replaced.

Well , never say never, Roger revamped his BH, so it will be interesting as the top coach in charge what tweaks Carlos Moya implements (or tries to) in Rafa's game.

Agree that the ROS can be alarmingly bad at times.

I guess the decline in serve speed is both an injury thing and also a matter of preference. It is strange that Nadal in Fall 2010 was serving at 130 mph+ (upto 135-136 mph top speed) consistently. And now barely ever goes over 125 mph and averages usually between 110-115 mph at best.

Rafa has confirmed that maintaining a high speed serve was detrimental to his shoulder. He also said that a faster serve comes back quicker from his opponent and doesn't give him time to adjust. That doesn't make sense to me. But it seems Nadal prefers the slower rhythm. MikeOne was right in that sense. I can't recall any great player who won so many slams without a big serve.

W.r.t lack of aggression on return of serve and predictable rally patterns, I guess more than the coach, this is because of Nadal's own risk averse tendencies. Yes, Moya has bought out many welcome changes in Rafa's game. Not least his improvement in second serve. However, it's not as if Toni doesn't tell Nadal to be aggressive or doesn't know what Rafa needs to do.

There were multiple interviews from Toni during the UsOpen where he bemoaned Rafa's lack of aggression and said that he had repeatedly told his nephew to stand up to return serve and to hit his DTL forehand more.
He expressed frustration of Nadal being too defensive in the UsOpen matches against Daniels, Mayer and 1st set against Delpo.

A coach can only do so much. Ultimately it's the player himself who has to change. Rafa has definitely made some welcome tweaks to his game this year. But the question is whether he can raise his game next year, when inevitably Djokovic and Federer will play at a very high level..