2017 RG Semifinals: Nadal vs. Thiem

[GameSetAndMath]

I am glad that Thiem won without a long drawn battle. This would mean that he should be physically and mentally fit enough to at least give a good fight instead of waving a white flag.

I expect the match to be tight in the first two sets with the two splitting them. I expect Thiem to gradually go away after that. Rafa in four is my prediction. But, I think it will probably be the best match of this whole RG (including the final).

 

[Denis]

I am glad that Thiem won without a long drawn battle. This would mean that he should be physically and mentally fit enough to at least give a good fight instead of waving a white flag.

I expect the match to be tight in the first two sets with the two splitting them. I expect Thiem to gradually go away after that. Rafa in four is my prediction. But, I think it will probably be the best match of this whole RG (including the final).

I agree with this. Staying in the fight with an in form Nadal is the hardest thing there is in tennis, especially at RG. Probably only two players in the world that have been able to do it. I will have to see it to believe Thiem has it in him. For now I also think he will go down in four.

 

[britbox]

H2H: Nadal leads 4-2

2017 Rome Masters QF Clay Dominic Thiem Rafael Nadal 6-4 6-3
2017 Madrid Masters F Clay Rafael Nadal Dominic Thiem 7-6(8) 6-4
2017 Barcelona F Clay Rafael Nadal Dominic Thiem 6-4 6-1
2016 Monte Carlo Masters R16 Clay Rafael Nadal Dominic Thiem 7-5 6-3
2016 Buenos Aires SF Clay Dominic Thiem Rafael Nadal 6-4 4-6 7-6(4)
2014 FO - RG R64 Clay Rafael Nadal Dominic Thiem 6-2 6-2 6-3

All meetings on clay. Thiem must be in a fairly small club to have beaten Nadal twice on clay.

Nadal has been superb throughout the tournament, but Thiems's form coupled with his win in Rome makes this a really interesting match. Definitely not a shoe-in for Nadal. I'll take a punt on the surprise and go with Thiem in four.

 

[El Dude]

Rafa has lost 40 times on clay. Here they are:

http://www.tennisabstract.com/cgi-bin/player.cgi?p=RafaelNadal&f=ACareerqqB1F1

Players who have beaten him multiple times on clay (as far as I can tell, with my two daughters trying to get me to take them to the beach):

7 Novak Djokovic (2011x2, 2013, 2014, 2015x2, 2016)
3 Gaston Gaudio (2003, 2004, 2005)
2 Fabio Fognini (2015x2)
2 Andy Murray (2015, 2016)
2 Dominic Thiem (2016, 2017)
2 Roger Federer (2007, 2009)
2 David Ferrer (2004, 2014)

So if Dominic beats him, he'll join Gaudio and Novak as the only players to beat Rafa three or more times on clay. If Stan beats him, he joins the twice club.

OK, off to the beach.

 

[mrzz]

Thiem has a chance, but Rafa is the favorite

Said it all in one post. If Thiem shows up it could become an all time classic.

 

[Moxie]

Rafa has lost 40 times on clay. Here they are:

http://www.tennisabstract.com/cgi-bin/player.cgi?p=RafaelNadal&f=ACareerqqB1F1

Players who have beaten him multiple times on clay (as far as I can tell, with my two daughters trying to get me to take them to the beach):

7 Novak Djokovic (2011x2, 2013, 2014, 2015x2, 2016)
3 Gaston Gaudio (2003, 2004, 2005)
2 Fabio Fognini (2015x2)
2 Andy Murray (2015, 2016)
2 Dominic Thiem (2016, 2017)
2 Roger Federer (2007, 2009)
2 David Ferrer (2004, 2014)

So if Dominic beats him, he'll join Gaudio and Novak as the only players to beat Rafa three or more times on clay. If Stan beats him, he joins the twice club.

OK, off to the beach.

The beach?! You bastard. My heat came on last night.

 

[Carol]

Rafa has lost 40 times on clay. Here they are:

http://www.tennisabstract.com/cgi-bin/player.cgi?p=RafaelNadal&f=ACareerqqB1F1

Players who have beaten him multiple times on clay (as far as I can tell, with my two daughters trying to get me to take them to the beach):

7 Novak Djokovic (2011x2, 2013, 2014, 2015x2, 2016)
3 Gaston Gaudio (2003, 2004, 2005)
2 Fabio Fognini (2015x2)
2 Andy Murray (2015, 2016)
2 Dominic Thiem (2016, 2017)
2 Roger Federer (2007, 2009)
2 David Ferrer (2004, 2014)

So if Dominic beats him, he'll join Gaudio and Novak as the only players to beat Rafa three or more times on clay. If Stan beats him, he joins the twice club.

OK, off to the beach.

LOL Rafa in 2003 was 16 years old, 2004 was 17, 2005 was 18, maybe Gaudio was very proud of his wins....

 

[Moxie]

I agree with this. Staying in the fight with an in form Nadal is the hardest thing there is in tennis, especially at RG. Probably only two players in the world that have been able to do it. I will have to see it to believe Thiem has it in him. For now I also think he will go down in four.

Quoting you, but I also thought GSM's post that you quoted was smart. That Thiem gets a set is a reasonable bet, but not that he wins. I'm venturing that he may even lose in straights. He was very admirable today, not just in digging out that first set, but holding his head while Djokovic lost his. That has to have been weird. I believe that one reason he lost so badly to Novak in Rome is that he'd just beaten Nadal the day before. It takes belief to pull off the double with players like that. Thiem has a lot, and his confidence is growing. We'll see something about his heart on Friday. That said, the quotable Mary Carillo said in 2014, when Rafa hadn't won a tournament on clay going into RG, that he has a 'genetic predisposition to peak for the last weekend of RG.' I don't think he's going to have an off-day or give many free gifts. As I said on the other thread, but I'm not sure how many saw it, given that the PCB match was such a dud, Nadal is now 100-2 on best of 5 set matches on clay. I'll be impressed by Thiem if he takes a set.

 

[Moxie]

LOL Rafa in 2003 was 16 years old, 2004 was 17, 2005 was 18, maybe Gaudio was very proud of his wins....

Gaudio was an anecdote for that stat for many years, until Djokovic beat Nadal in more serious ways on clay. Another outlier is Zeballos, who is the only one not in the Big 4 to beat him in a clay final. And 2015 was rather a "free-punch-at-Rafa" year, it can be said.

 

[britbox]

The beach?! You bastard. My heat came on last night.

You're in heat? Lock up your sons.

 

[El Dude]

The beach?! You bastard. My heat came on last night.

I moved to Hawaii last July!

 

[Moxie]

I moved to Hawaii last July!

Seriously? That is awesome. Now I'm going to give you the double-middle finger. Aloha.

 

[El Dude]

Seriously? That is awesome. Now I'm going to give you the double-middle finger. Aloha.

It is awesome, although the cost of living is very high and we're not rich. The typical three bedroom apartment costs $2-3,000 a month in Honolulu. But the natural beauty and climate is terrific.

 

[mrzz]

I think El Dude resumed it perfectly in the phrase some posts above. Expanding a bit, the way I see it is like this:

Considering the intangibles, a 14 time major winner, winner of 9 FO's is obviously way ahead. But he did struggle a bit in finals (I know this is a semi) this year, and Thiem is in that process where you just discover that you may be part of that club. He could be feeling better than he actually is (and I think he is really good). He did beat Nadal in their last match, he just beat a guy who used to own him (and this gives you loads of confidence), so, all in all, looking from this side, Nadal is ahead, but Thiem has something going for him too.

Form and match up wise, this is a bit closer. Nadal leads the H2H, but all their matches this year were competitive, and Thiem got better in each and everyone of them. He knows exactly what he is facing, and comes in with much less fear than the average player. Thiem won convincingly thus far, but Nadal was even more convincing, far more in fact. This could also work against him, he does not know what a hard match is since the last time he met Thiem himself. And the only guy who could give him something remotely similar to the balls Thiem hits was PCB, who was injured. Thiem has a backhand that could hurt Nadal -- but for this to happen he must be on fire. And it remains to be seen if he can keep a high level up, say, at 4 all in the fourth set, a thing Nadal will surely do -- in fact probably he will find his best level just right there, One way or another (probably another), this match is the best thing that could have happen to Thiem.

 

[isabelle]

Nadal in 3 unfortunately...I'll root for nice Dominator nevertheless

 

[MartyB]

H2H: Nadal leads 4-2

2017 Rome Masters QF Clay Dominic Thiem Rafael Nadal 6-4 6-3
2017 Madrid Masters F Clay Rafael Nadal Dominic Thiem 7-6(8) 6-4
2017 Barcelona F Clay Rafael Nadal Dominic Thiem 6-4 6-1
2016 Monte Carlo Masters R16 Clay Rafael Nadal Dominic Thiem 7-5 6-3
2016 Buenos Aires SF Clay Dominic Thiem Rafael Nadal 6-4 4-6 7-6(4)
2014 FO - RG R64 Clay Rafael Nadal Dominic Thiem 6-2 6-2 6-3

All meetings on clay. Thiem must be in a fairly small club to have beaten Nadal twice on clay.

Nadal has been superb throughout the tournament, but Thiems's form coupled with his win in Rome makes this a really interesting match. Definitely not a shoe-in for Nadal. I'll take a punt on the surprise and go with Thiem in four.

I feel the same way as you do. The one factor is the best of 5 sets and that makes the match more about endurance and staying with Nadal where your heart and head matter as much as your ability to hit the heck out of a ball. Not that this matters but I think the crowd will be with Thiem as well. This kid has arrived. He will not be in awe and he won't be nervous.

 

[britbox]

Nadal/Thiem Preview

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

The formula is simple for Thiem but not easy. He is not winning this match by staying with Nadal. The only person that won against a good , in form Nadal by staying with him was peak Nole. There may be a couple exceptions but I don't remember. The way you beat him is to hit him off the court. That is what Thiem will try to do. Constant attack and not worrying about the errors. If you can sustain it long enough, you win. If not, you lose but you were going to lose by trying to stay with Nadal anyways so you might as well go for it.
I am thinking Nadal in 4.

 

[Moxie]

The formula is simple for Thiem but not easy. He is not winning this match by staying with Nadal. The only person that won against a good , in form Nadal by staying with him was peak Nole. There may be a couple exceptions but I don't remember. The way you beat him is to hit him off the court. That is what Thiem will try to do. Constant attack and not worrying about the errors. If you can sustain it long enough, you win. If not, you lose but you were going to lose by trying to stay with Nadal anyways so you might as well go for it.
I am thinking Nadal in 4.

Thiem has a little bit of Novak and a lot of Wawrkinka, which means he should be able to trouble Nadal more than anyone up until now. He was brave against Djokovic, and I expect him to be brave against Rafa. That's his best chance: hold his nerve and stick to his game.

 

[golds girl]

It is awesome, although the cost of living is very high and we're not rich. The typical three bedroom apartment costs $2-3,000 a month in Honolulu. But the natural beauty and climate is terrific.

$3000 for a 3 bedroom is a steal in San Francisco....sans the beach, sand, trees, laid-back people