2016 Wimbledon SF: Federer vs. Raonic

[ftan]

I just cant even....sigh

 

[ftan]

Basically too hurt to debate

 

[Front242]

In the first set, Milos's conversion of break points is 1 out of 1. How did he get that. Fed got broken due to a DF. I can't remember the last time Fed threw a DF on BP. There is not much talk about this as it got eclipsed by his quadruple fault in 4th set. At least his DFs in the 4th set were not at BP. :cry

Could be worse. Novak double faulted to lose the Rome 2012 final I believe and lost a set in the RG 2012 final to a DF and also lost the match on a DF.

 

[lob]

Yeah the grand slam ship has officially sailed. I figured last year's USO was it and sadly that looks to be the case. I can't picture him coming back next year and winning Wimbledon and his chances at this year's USO are minimal at best and AO and RG are completely out of the question at this point.

I don't agree, it takes Novak 5 sets two years ago and 4 tough sets last to defeat Roger. Roger has always battled like a warrior and could have possible won a major each of the past four years that he made the finals in the grand slams. Rafa can't even make it to the 2nd week of most slams, that's the definition of a "Ship that has Sailed",IMO.

If you mean he was dangerously close to winning a grand slam, yes he was. But part of what fogs the mind in Roger's case is his past accomplishment don't mean much after 2012. Objectively speaking, he has almost no chance. If he could win, he already would have won. He had numerous opportunities in the past 4 years. What stands out is his inability to take the opportunities presented to him. Compare those to FO 2009, Wimb 2009, Wimb 2012. He made many mistakes but he clutched it when a do or die moment arose in the SF/F. Contrast it with his grand slam F/SF performance after 2012.

Whether you miss the ship by an hour or by a month a ship that has sailed has sailed. The fact that you can see it leaving the port won't change the fact that you couldn't get on it. That's the difference between Roger and Rafa.

 

[DarthFed]

Too many spoiled opportunities the last 6+ seasons. Matches like today have become something of a norm though this was especially bad given who he was up against and the fact it was 40-0 on his serve at 5-6. No guarantee he'd have won the TB but it'd be tough not to give him the clear edge going into it.

Yep, I concur; the ship has sailed. It is now four full years since Fed last won a slam. Pete had 2.25 years gap between his last two slams (although he deteriorated heavily during the gap). Off hand, I cannot think of anyone who has come back and won a slam after four years of gap (Dude can confirm this). If so, history is also against him.

Are you kidding me! Roger had control of the match, Raonic finally grew a pair and wrestled it away from Roger. Oh yeah, a Roger choked it away but played a fantastic match. Had Fed won this match he would have been a favorite over Murray, Berdych had no chance ever. Milos got lucky in the 4 set that's all otherwise the Beloved One would be playing for his 8th Wimbledon title.

Roger did have control and Milos didn't wrestle it away, he was handed an opportunity in the last game of the fourth set and to his credit he seized it. Fantastic match? Nah, it was a mess. Roger didn't really show up until the 3rd set yet he managed to win the 2nd when Milos played crappy near the business end. And then the meltdown in the 4th set an weak as hell 5th set. It was what it was, a really really poor performance in what figures to be his last decent chance at a slam.

 

[DarthFed]

I'd be shocked if the last match doesn't affect him at all, that's why I'm leaning towards Milos. A few somewhat recent examples of really grueling matches Roger has played near the end of a tournament:

2012 Olympics: He had an absolute war with DP in the semis and then got blasted in the final by Murray on the same court he beat him on a month before at Wimbledon

2013 AO: he beat Tsonga in 5 in the QF's and then lost to Murray in 5 in the semifinals. Roger was fairly flat and was outplayed badly most of the match though he did hang tough and managed to steal the 4th set. But you could tell the tank was running empty in the 5th.

2014 USO: He rallied from 2 sets down vs. Monfils in the QF's and saved match points in the 4th similar to yesterday. He then was lethargic against a red hot Cilic and was routed in the semis.

So you can see that history is kind of against him here and those matches came 2-4 years ago when he hadn't just come back from injury. The only thing working in his favor is that this is grass and with Milos the points figure to be short. The Murray Olympics match was also on grass but that's a totally different matchup as Murray is a great returner and could force Roger into more extended rallies.

You were 100% right in this one, Darth. I was 100% wrong (or delusional) on the replies.

I actually don't think I was right. I wouldn't put this down to Roger being tired from the previous match. Maybe it contributed a bit at the beginning as the first couple sets were very poor from him but he got it going in the 3rd and then played a really good 4th set before the choke which is mental not physical. Even if he had dismissed Cilic in 3 or 4 I'm not sure he wins today because the fact of the matter is he SHOULD'VE won today anyways.

 

[DarthFed]

Yeah the grand slam ship has officially sailed. I figured last year's USO was it and sadly that looks to be the case. I can't picture him coming back next year and winning Wimbledon and his chances at this year's USO are minimal at best and AO and RG are completely out of the question at this point.

I don't agree, it takes Novak 5 sets two years ago and 4 tough sets last to defeat Roger. Roger has always battled like a warrior and could have possible won a major each of the past four years that he made the finals in the grand slams. Rafa can't even make it to the 2nd week of most slams, that's the definition of a "Ship that has Sailed",IMO.

That's the thing AP, that was 2 years ago. 2 years isn't a lot for a guy in his mid 20's but for Roger those 2 years are naturally not kind, especially this year. Also I feel like that's the last final he played well in. The 2 finals vs. Novak last year were pretty poor especially Wimbledon which was about as poor as one could picture him playing on grass until this year. And I think going forward if he does make these late junctures in a slam again it will only get tougher for him physically and mentally.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Congrats to Riotbeard, the only person who voted for Milos in 5. :clap

 

[GameSetAndMath]

In the first set, Milos's conversion of break points is 1 out of 1. How did he get that. Fed got broken due to a DF. I can't remember the last time Fed threw a DF on BP. There is not much talk about this as it got eclipsed by his quadruple fault in 4th set. At least his DFs in the 4th set were not at BP. :cry

Could be worse. Novak double faulted to lose the Rome 2012 final I believe and lost a set in the RG 2012 final to a DF and also lost the match on a DF.

Verdasco lost his SF against Rafa at AO by throwing in a DF on match point, after playing so great for about five hours or so.

My point is that even the first set could have gone to TB if not for a single DF. But, I agree that there are no ifs and buts in this game.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

I'd be shocked if the last match doesn't affect him at all, that's why I'm leaning towards Milos. A few somewhat recent examples of really grueling matches Roger has played near the end of a tournament:

2012 Olympics: He had an absolute war with DP in the semis and then got blasted in the final by Murray on the same court he beat him on a month before at Wimbledon

2013 AO: he beat Tsonga in 5 in the QF's and then lost to Murray in 5 in the semifinals. Roger was fairly flat and was outplayed badly most of the match though he did hang tough and managed to steal the 4th set. But you could tell the tank was running empty in the 5th.

2014 USO: He rallied from 2 sets down vs. Monfils in the QF's and saved match points in the 4th similar to yesterday. He then was lethargic against a red hot Cilic and was routed in the semis.

So you can see that history is kind of against him here and those matches came 2-4 years ago when he hadn't just come back from injury. The only thing working in his favor is that this is grass and with Milos the points figure to be short. The Murray Olympics match was also on grass but that's a totally different matchup as Murray is a great returner and could force Roger into more extended rallies.

You were 100% right in this one, Darth. I was 100% wrong (or delusional) on the replies.

I actually don't think I was right. I wouldn't put this down to Roger being tired from the previous match. Maybe it contributed a bit at the beginning as the first couple sets were very poor from him but he got it going in the 3rd and then played a really good 4th set before the choke which is mental not physical. Even if he had dismissed Cilic in 3 or 4 I'm not sure he wins today because the fact of the matter is he SHOULD'VE won today anyways.

No, that certainly played a factor in what transpired. The slow start, losing first set and very low first serve percentage in the first two sets can probably be attributed to not enough recovery time for the old body.

After the fall and the service break in the fifth set, Fed was basically going through the motions; he was being a nice guy and finished the match. Now, here is the interesting point. Fed called for a trainer to look at his legs even before the fall, at the end of the 4th set when Milos went for his second toilet break. May be he felt that his legs are giving away.

Here is the most important point. As Fed probably knew that he was losing the stamina of the legs, he must have felt the pressure to finish the match in fourth set itself. It is probably that pressure that caused him to double fault twice. There has to be a reason why things happen.

Of course, none of these takes anything away from Milos's victory. It is all part of the game.
I am really impressed with the frequency with which Milos came to the net and his high percentage (about 67%) of success at the net. I surely was not expecting that he will be having this much success especially as I spotted him right in this tourney botching lot of volleys in an earlier round.

 

[lob]

No, that certainly played a factor in what transpired. The slow start, losing first set and very low first serve percentage in the first two sets can probably be attributed to not enough recovery time for the old body.

After the fall and the service break in the fifth set, Fed was basically going through the motions; he was being a nice guy and finished the match. Now, here is the interesting point. Fed called for a trainer to look at his legs even before the fall, at the end of the 4th set when Milos went for his second toilet break. May be he felt that his legs are giving away.

Here is the most important point. As Fed probably knew that he was losing the stamina of the legs, he must have felt the pressure to finish the match in fourth set itself. It is probably that pressure that caused him to double fault twice. There has to be a reason why things happen.

Of course, none of these takes anything away from Milos's victory. It is all part of th game.

Just saw that 4th set. I can say with a straight face that the match was on Roger's racket throughout the 4th set. It's just that Milos didn't f*&k it up. Roger had many opportunities in Milos' 4th set service games. Many. He was just sluggish and either mentally or physically tired. Unmotivated. The set shouldn't have gone to 5-6 in the first place. The two DFs were inexplicable but not out of the blue. Roger was playing his B- game as if he had a heavy lunch. It didn't seem to me that he even felt the urgency of a Wimbledon SF. That set point told the whole story. He had a wide open cross court and he hits it back to Milos as if it's a practice session. I have never seen Roger be so clumsy in the choice of a shot at Wimbledon.

Even if Fed had made it to the Final, he was in no shape to win it. He isn't light footed enough to make it a contest anymore. Murray would have beat him handily after this. I'll be shocked if Murray doesn't school Raonic.

 

[DarthFed]

You were 100% right in this one, Darth. I was 100% wrong (or delusional) on the replies.

I actually don't think I was right. I wouldn't put this down to Roger being tired from the previous match. Maybe it contributed a bit at the beginning as the first couple sets were very poor from him but he got it going in the 3rd and then played a really good 4th set before the choke which is mental not physical. Even if he had dismissed Cilic in 3 or 4 I'm not sure he wins today because the fact of the matter is he SHOULD'VE won today anyways.

No, that certainly played a factor in what transpired. The slow start, losing first set and very low first serve percentage in the first two sets can probably be attributed to not enough recovery time for the old body.

After the fall and the service break in the fifth set, Fed was basically going through the motions; he was being a nice guy and finished the match. Now, here is the interesting point. Fed called for a trainer to look at his legs even before the fall, at the end of the 4th set when Milos went for his second toilet break. May be he felt that his legs are giving away.

Here is the most important point. As Fed probably knew that he was losing the stamina of the legs, he must have felt the pressure to finish the match in fourth set itself. It is probably that pressure that caused him to double fault twice. There has to be a reason why things happen.

Of course, none of these takes anything away from Milos's victory. It is all part of the game.
I am really impressed with the frequency with which Milos came to the net and his high percentage (about 67%) of success at the net. I surely was not expecting that he will be having this much success especially as I spotted him right in this tourney botching lot of volleys in an earlier round.

Yes it is possible that it contributed to his poor play at the start but at the same time he had a similar start vs. Cilic when he was well rested after easily getting to the QF. Sometimes his serve just disappears in a big match. Doesn't happen often but it has happened and today was one of those days.

But fatigue from the Cilic match is not why Roger lost this match. Roger had plenty of energy in the 4th set, and yes the pressure clearly got to him. Sampras once said that everyone chokes if they play long enough. And it's a very true statement. No one handles the pressure well 100% of the time.

 

[Kieran]

In the first set, Milos's conversion of break points is 1 out of 1. How did he get that. Fed got broken due to a DF. I can't remember the last time Fed threw a DF on BP. There is not much talk about this as it got eclipsed by his quadruple fault in 4th set. At least his DFs in the 4th set were not at BP. :cry

Could be worse. Novak double faulted to lose the Rome 2012 final I believe and lost a set in the RG 2012 final to a DF and also lost the match on a DF.

Novak lost two French open finals on double faults. 2012 and 2014...

 

[Obsi]

Yes, Wawrinka. Do you think the very inconsistent Wawrinka being #3 over Roger wouldn't be a sign of enormous decline from a player who was at 23 straight semis and 18 of 19 finals?

You underestimate Wawrinka.

 

[Front242]

Yes, Wawrinka. Do you think the very inconsistent Wawrinka being #3 over Roger wouldn't be a sign of enormous decline from a player who was at 23 straight semis and 18 of 19 finals?

You underestimate Wawrinka.

Wawrinka is the epitome of inconsistency. He at least made the semis of RG so it wasn't as bad a year at the slams as it could have been so far but AO 4th round loss and 2nd round loss at Wimbledon to a guy who hadn't played a slam match in absolutely ages and has a gammy wrist and can only slice on his backhand don't exactly make him shine as anything too amazing except for a handful of matches every decade.

 

[isabelle]

Congrats to Riotbeard, the only person who voted for Milos in 5. :clap

well done guy, I voted for Milos in 4

 

[DarthFed]

Yes, Wawrinka. Do you think the very inconsistent Wawrinka being #3 over Roger wouldn't be a sign of enormous decline from a player who was at 23 straight semis and 18 of 19 finals?

You underestimate Wawrinka.

Not at all. His whole career is based on 2 slams and if Nole had done the job we'd be talking of him like we talk of Baghdatis or Gonzalez.

 

[DarthFed]

But I'm also guessing the fact he lost to Milos frickin Raonic in an ugly 5 set match at Wimbledon doesn't register as signs of a large decline either.

 

[the AntiPusher]

But I'm also guessing the fact he lost to Milos frickin Raonic in an ugly 5 set match at Wimbledon doesn't register as signs of a large decline either.

Never can anyone win this argument with you especially since you feel that Roger never should have ever have any business loosing to Rafa at Wimbledon which was over 8 years ago when Roger was 27 or younger :nono

 

[lob]

But I'm also guessing the fact he lost to Milos frickin Raonic in an ugly 5 set match at Wimbledon doesn't register as signs of a large decline either.

Never can anyone win this argument with you especially since you feel that Roger never should have ever have any business loosing to Rafa at Wimbledon which was over 8 years ago when Roger was 27 or younger :nono

AP, the fact that Rafa nearly pulled it off in 2007 shows that Roger was already in that business no?

Each player's game has its own bizarre chemical reaction with fear, moment and matchup. Did you predict that Novak would take a vacation vs. Stan in RG 2015? Everybody's grandmother knows that, by 2007, Roger was scared of that fearless gazelle crossed with a bull across the net. Roger himself reflected a few years back that after getting 'destroyed like that' (his words) in the RG final a month earlier, he started that match flat until he realized that his ass was on fire when it was too late.