2015 Monte Carlo Masters Semifinal: Djokovic v. Nadal

[Moxie]

Somehow, I can't access p. 2 of this thread. I'll try posting, anyway. Rafa is not in any form to beat Novak tomorrow. I hope he can make a match of it, though. I'm sure he knows he has to step up a long way, and no walkabouts. Let's see what he can do about raising his level when his back is against it, which it is.

 

[Kieran]

Firstly, thanks for starting the thread, buddy.

Secondly, I expect Nole to win tomorrow, can't guess the score, but it won't make a blind bit of difference to what we can predict happens in Roland Garros - but we all know that cos we have witnessed tennis for the last few seasons.

That isn't to say that no matter what score it is tomorrow, RG will be different. What I mean is, that Monte Carlo hasn't indicated the victor in Paris since 2012, and also, no matter how poorly Rafa is playing now, only an idiot would suggest that come the second week in Paris, he'll be still so far off the mark.

Anybody who thinks Nole is playing like 2011 is wrong, imho: in 2011 Rafa was playing exceptional and Nole still gazumped him. That's how great Nole was in 2011. Not only twice over three sets on hards - but twice in straights on clay! Rafa is coming back from serious injury and an op - he's more like he was in mid- to late-2009, when Nole got 3 straight set wins in a row against him.

And Federer in 2011 was 4 years younger, and Murray wasn't the weakling he is now.

Nole is the best player this year so far, but I don't see him as being much different to what he's been the last couple years. The opposition is more frail, that's all.

Nole will win tomorrow, but it will be closer than it should be, and the main thing is that Rafa is growing daily. We been here before, folks, we know how it goes...

 

[Moxie]

^ Many good points, brother Kieran. And I don't want to derail the thread, but there is no formula by which we can predict Rafa losing at RG, as the last couple of seasons have proven.

For this SF, I'm thinking of RG 2011, when, as you mention, Rafa had plenty reason to be feeling vulnerable, including going 5 sets v. Isner in the first round, and not looking especially convincing in the next 3. But he met Soderling in the QF, and his level went up from C to A- to meet the challenge. I'm hoping he finds something like that tomorrow. A loss will sting less if it's a good fight.

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

djokovic will probably walk off with French open title. there is nothing to suggest otherwise. everyone else is playing inferior tennis.. things might change I suppose.

 

[mrzz]

hmmm... it is true that tomorrow's match does not defines what happens at RG, however, to say that it has no bearing on it is too much for me.

To begin with, if Nadal wins tomorrow (something I do not think will happen), must people would say RG is already decided (and, honestly, it would be hard to think otherwise).

If, say, Djokovic wins 6x4 7x5, then ok, let's wait for the next rounds, but if he thrashes Nadal like 6x1 6x1 (and, I am sorry, by current form this is not impossible, and Djokovic would love to do just that), considering still the confidence issues that are there for everyone to see, how can we say that this would not have an effect for RG? Sure as hell that it would...

So, in two out of three scenarios this match could arguably have some measurable effect on RG, and I would guess those two guys are pretty aware of that, and that this will be visible on court tomorrow.

 

[Kieran]

^^ Tomorrow's match is meaningless when it comes to predicting the 2nd week in Roland Garros...

 

[Carol]

I've posted this on the other thread too
This is what Rafa is thinking about the match tomorrow

http://montecarlotennismasters.com/en/rafa-sets-novak-sf-clash/

 

[Carol]

Watching "Happy Feet" maybe tomorrow I will be the real happy feet? it all will depend of Rafa

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

I agree with Kieran. Until someone proves otherwise, no result until the final (or semi, depending) of RG is an indicator of the result of RG. In other words, Rafa is the favorite to win RG until proven otherwise. Other tournaments mean nothing as far as RG is concerned.

 

[calitennis127]

This match is mainly about helping Djokovic remove the wart of a losing record to Nadal for his career from his resume. Other than that, Kieran is of course right that Djokovic has yet to play anywhere near his capability in the final of Roland Garros and send Nadal packing without the trophy.

 

[the AntiPusher]

Saturday, April 18, 2015

COURT CENTRAL Start 11:00 am

[2] Ivan Dodig (CRO) / Marcelo Melo (BRA) v Simone Bolelli (ITA) / Fabio Fognini (ITA)

Not Before 1:00 pm

[6] Tomas Berdych (CZE) v [WC/14] Gael Monfils (FRA)

Not Before 3:30 pm

[1] Novak Djokovic (SRB) v [3] Rafael Nadal (ESP)

[1] Bob Bryan (USA) / Mike Bryan (USA) v [4] Marcin Matkowski (POL) / Nenad Zimonjic (SRB)

Battle #43 begins not before 8:30m est, is that correct

 

[Carol]

This match is mainly about helping Djokovic remove the wart of a losing record to Nadal for his career from his resume. Other than that, Kieran is of course right that Djokovic has yet to play anywhere near his capability in the final of Roland Garros and send Nadal packing without the trophy.

But try to keep in mind that Rafa still is not playing anywhere near his capability which he could do it at any time

 

[Moxie]

hmmm... it is true that tomorrow's match does not defines what happens at RG, however, to say that it has no bearing on it is too much for me.

To begin with, if Nadal wins tomorrow (something I do not think will happen), must people would say RG is already decided (and, honestly, it would be hard to think otherwise).

If, say, Djokovic wins 6x4 7x5, then ok, let's wait for the next rounds, but if he thrashes Nadal like 6x1 6x1 (and, I am sorry, by current form this is not impossible, and Djokovic would love to do just that), considering still the confidence issues that are there for everyone to see, how can we say that this would not have an effect for RG? Sure as hell that it would...

So, in two out of three scenarios this match could arguably have some measurable effect on RG, and I would guess those two guys are pretty aware of that, and that this will be visible on court tomorrow.

Although basically everyone else has said that tomorrow's results don't have any bearing on the RG to come, I will answer you on this. In 2013, Djokovic beat Nadal at MC in straight sets (6-2, 7-6) and still lost to him in the SF at RG, which Nadal then won. In 2014, Rafa had, by his standards, a miserable clay season, and he lost to Novak in Rome, just before RG, and still beat Djokovic in the final. There is no formula by which Rafa plays poorly/Novak beats him in the clay season that adds up to Nadal losing at RG, up to this point. I agree with Kieran and others who say that a loss tomorrow by Rafa still doesn't predict the outcome of the French Open. A commentator last year said that Nadal has an instinct for peaking the 2nd week of the French. Until he loses it again, there is no predictor for Rafa not hefting that trophy.

 

[the AntiPusher]

This match is mainly about helping Djokovic remove the wart of a losing record to Nadal for his career from his resume. Other than that, Kieran is of course right that Djokovic has yet to play anywhere near his capability in the final of Roland Garros and send Nadal packing without the trophy.

Maybe its the other way, Rafa has prevented Novak from playing his best due to the fact that Rafa is a superior offensive clay court player who has the innate ability to produce supreme defense during the big points of the championship final.

 

[Moxie]

This match is mainly about helping Djokovic remove the wart of a losing record to Nadal for his career from his resume. Other than that, Kieran is of course right that Djokovic has yet to play anywhere near his capability in the final of Roland Garros and send Nadal packing without the trophy.

Did Kieran say that Djokovic hasn't played near his capability at RG against Nadal? That sounds like you, Cali. I think K. was making that point that ND wasn't playing up to his 2011 level, overall. :dodgy:

 

[TsarMatt]

I'm really looking forward to this. I have a feeling Nadal will pull off an upset here and win. Just a hunch, though.

 

[Puppet Master]

I'm really looking forward to this. I have a feeling Nadal will pull off an upset here and win. Just a hunch, though.

I can only hope you are right.

 

[Kieran]

This match is mainly about helping Djokovic remove the wart of a losing record to Nadal for his career from his resume. Other than that, Kieran is of course right that Djokovic has yet to play anywhere near his capability in the final of Roland Garros and send Nadal packing without the trophy.

Did Kieran say that Djokovic hasn't played near his capability at RG against Nadal? That sounds like you, Cali. I think K. was making that point that ND wasn't playing up to his 2011 level, overall. :dodgy:

Exactly, sis. RG is on Rafa's racket until the day it isn't...

 

[the AntiPusher]

Great the match is going to be on TC, but I will watch it with the sound off if Mary C is going to be one of the analyst, what the most annoying person to call a match she is

 

[JesuslookslikeBorg]

they are arriving on court at 2.30pm bst. ?.or in 15-20mins to save any timezone change confusion ?.