2015 Australian Open Quarterfinals: Berdych vs. Nadal

[bobvance]

Beating Rafa in straights at a Grandslam is no small feat, even if Rafa wasn't at his best. Berdych should be very proud of that performance. Even last year when Rafa's back went out in the final it took Stan 4 sets to get the job done.

Edit: That was meant as a compliment to Rafa and not a knock on Stan by the way.

 

[the AntiPusher]

How does that change things in any way? It's not like Djokovic's chances were hinging on Nadal. On the best of days, Nadal is a significant underdog against Djokovic at the AO. This year, it wouldn't have been remotely competitive.

Djokovic has 3 tricky matches ahead, whoever he plays. He's the favorite but let's not get ahead of ourselves.

If Rafa had made it to the final, I would have given him a chance. Now we know that's not going to happen, and I don't see anyone else beating Novak.

Against Novak? Zero chance.

On any surface, Nadal needs to be moving terrific and in top physical shape to beat Djokovic. He also needs to be serving great. Incidentally, those are the most notable missing aspects of his game.

There literally isn't a way for him to beat Djokovic otherwise, as he can't rely on his groundies to dictate. Even if he gets aggressive, Djokovic defends so well and turns so many rallies around that Nadal needs to be able to match him in that regard.

I'm not even exaggerating when I say zero chance.

BS ,with a total of maybe 6 matches under his belt since last early last October, Rafa wa lucky to make it to the 4th round. Congratulations to Berdych, now do something with your historic victory

 

[calitennis127]

I woke up and was pretty amused to learn of the outcome. So Berdych finally beat Nadal after about 80 chances, with Nadal just having come back from injury?

Took you long enough Tomas. :laydownlaughing

 

[calitennis127]

How does that change things in any way? It's not like Djokovic's chances were hinging on Nadal. On the best of days, Nadal is a significant underdog against Djokovic at the AO. This year, it wouldn't have been remotely competitive.

Djokovic has 3 tricky matches ahead, whoever he plays. He's the favorite but let's not get ahead of ourselves.

If Rafa had made it to the final, I would have given him a chance. Now we know that's not going to happen, and I don't see anyone else beating Novak.

Against Novak? Zero chance.

On any surface, Nadal needs to be moving terrific and in top physical shape to beat Djokovic. He also needs to be serving great. Incidentally, those are the most notable missing aspects of his game.

There literally isn't a way for him to beat Djokovic otherwise, as he can't rely on his groundies to dictate. Even if he gets aggressive, Djokovic defends so well and turns so many rallies around that Nadal needs to be able to match him in that regard.

I'm not even exaggerating when I say zero chance.

I disagree. Djokovic has underperformed in so many big matches against Nadal that he should have won that I could have seen him possibly slipping up in this final against Nadal, even with the surface advantages at the Australian Open.

Nadal would have raised his level in the final. You focus solely on tactics and strategy without much awareness of the factors of momentum and psychology. From a tennis standpoint, you are right that Nadal's level hasn't been the greatest. But he has won plenty of tournaments (look at Wimbledon in 2010) after hobbling and stumbling into the final two rounds.

 

[brokenshoelace]

If Rafa had made it to the final, I would have given him a chance. Now we know that's not going to happen, and I don't see anyone else beating Novak.

Against Novak? Zero chance.

On any surface, Nadal needs to be moving terrific and in top physical shape to beat Djokovic. He also needs to be serving great. Incidentally, those are the most notable missing aspects of his game.

There literally isn't a way for him to beat Djokovic otherwise, as he can't rely on his groundies to dictate. Even if he gets aggressive, Djokovic defends so well and turns so many rallies around that Nadal needs to be able to match him in that regard.

I'm not even exaggerating when I say zero chance.

I disagree. Djokovic has underperformed in so many big matches against Nadal that he should have won that I could have seen him possibly slipping up in this final against Nadal, even with the surface advantages at the Australian Open.

Nadal would have raised his level in the final. You focus solely on tactics and strategy without much awareness of the factors of momentum and psychology. From a tennis standpoint, you are right that Nadal's level hasn't been the greatest. But he has won plenty of tournaments (look at Wimbledon in 2010) after hobbling and stumbling into the final two rounds.

So what momentum and psychology does Nadal have when he'd only played like 8 matches in the past 6 months, is struggling with confidence/fitness/etc...?

If all things are equal, even if I'd consider Novak a strong favorite on this surface, of course I'd give Nadal a chance to win. That's a 60/40 match because Nadal is a big match player who's great at problem solving on the spot even if he's getting outplayed. But it's safe to say that a guy who just lost 6-2 6-0 7-6 to someone he'd beaten 17 times in a row was not going to beat Djokovic...

 

[Kieran]

Zero chance? Rafa? Wow. At least that's better than nothing.. :laydownlaughing

 

[calitennis127]

Against Novak? Zero chance.

On any surface, Nadal needs to be moving terrific and in top physical shape to beat Djokovic. He also needs to be serving great. Incidentally, those are the most notable missing aspects of his game.

There literally isn't a way for him to beat Djokovic otherwise, as he can't rely on his groundies to dictate. Even if he gets aggressive, Djokovic defends so well and turns so many rallies around that Nadal needs to be able to match him in that regard.

I'm not even exaggerating when I say zero chance.

I disagree. Djokovic has underperformed in so many big matches against Nadal that he should have won that I could have seen him possibly slipping up in this final against Nadal, even with the surface advantages at the Australian Open.

Nadal would have raised his level in the final. You focus solely on tactics and strategy without much awareness of the factors of momentum and psychology. From a tennis standpoint, you are right that Nadal's level hasn't been the greatest. But he has won plenty of tournaments (look at Wimbledon in 2010) after hobbling and stumbling into the final two rounds.

So what momentum and psychology does Nadal have when he'd only played like 8 matches in the past 6 months, is struggling with confidence/fitness/etc...?

If Nadal had made the final, he would have had the momentum of reaching the final and he would have raised his level once it began. He always does this. Did he look like a world-beater in his two five-set wins early at Wimbledon in 2010? No. And you yourself have twice predicted that Djokovic would beat Nadal in 4 in Roland Garros match-ups, and then you found yourself “pleasantly surprised” at how he started doing things he hadn’t done all tournament. Hmmmm, shocking.

If all things are equal, even if I'd consider Novak a strong favorite on this surface, of course I'd give Nadal a chance to win. That's a 60/40 match because Nadal is a big match player who's great at problem solving on the spot even if he's getting outplayed. But it's safe to say that a guy who just lost 6-2 6-0 7-6 to someone he'd beaten 17 times in a row was not going to beat Djokovic...

Rafael Nadal has defeated Novak Djokovic in two US freaking Open finals. If that doesn’t prove that Nadal wins matches he shouldn’t against Djokovic, then nothing does. Rafael Nadal is 2-1 in US Opens against Djokovic: digest that, he is 2-1.

That means he always has a chance because Djokovic does not perform to his capability in many of their matches.

 

[brokenshoelace]

^^ All of this is irrelevant because none of it took place on Nadal's first tournament back (sort of) after a 6 months layoff when he's moving like utter garbage and looking fatigued an hour into matches.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Zero chance? Rafa? Wow. At least that's better than nothing.. :laydownlaughing

Nadal wouldn't have beaten Murray or Novak. The physical effort required against these two alone would make this impossible. He can raise his game, but he can't improve his fitness overnight.

 

[Carol]

I woke up and was pretty amused to learn of the outcome. So Berdych finally beat Nadal after about 80 chances, with Nadal just having come back from injury?

Took you long enough Tomas. :laydownlaughing

Injury and surgery :s

 

[Kieran]

Zero chance? Rafa? Wow. At least that's better than nothing.. :laydownlaughing

Nadal wouldn't have beaten Murray or Novak. The physical effort required against these two alone would make this impossible. He can raise his game, but he can't improve his fitness overnight.

That's not the hypothesis that Tented offered. He said that "If Rafa had made it to the final, I would have given him a chance. Now we know that's not going to happen, and I don't see anyone else beating Novak."

If this was the case, then obviously he'd have won today, then beaten Murray - and so had much more than a "zero chance" to beat Nole in the final. He'd be playing much higher than he is. It was an "if" which T then qualified by saying, "We know that's not going to happen."

Anyway, I'd give Rafa more than "zero chance" on any court, once he steps out there to play...

 

[brokenshoelace]

Zero chance? Rafa? Wow. At least that's better than nothing.. :laydownlaughing

Nadal wouldn't have beaten Murray or Novak. The physical effort required against these two alone would make this impossible. He can raise his game, but he can't improve his fitness overnight.

That's not the hypothesis that Tented offered. He said that "If Rafa had made it to the final, I would have given him a chance. Now we know that's not going to happen, and I don't see anyone else beating Novak."

If this was the case, then obviously he'd have won today, then beaten Murray - and so had much more than a "zero chance" to beat Nole in the final. He'd be playing much higher than he is. It was an "if" which T then qualified by saying, "We know that's not going to happen."

Anyway, I'd give Rafa more than "zero chance" on any court, once he steps out there to play...

OK, I would have given him a 10% chance against Novak if the above materialized. Difference is, my original assessment of his chances against Novak is based on what Nadal is capable of now. Your suggestion is based on some fantasy land where he would have beaten Berdych and Murray. Well, he got straight setted by Berdych. That's pretty telling re: chances vs. Djokovic.

 

[Kieran]

Nadal wouldn't have beaten Murray or Novak. The physical effort required against these two alone would make this impossible. He can raise his game, but he can't improve his fitness overnight.

That's not the hypothesis that Tented offered. He said that "If Rafa had made it to the final, I would have given him a chance. Now we know that's not going to happen, and I don't see anyone else beating Novak."

If this was the case, then obviously he'd have won today, then beaten Murray - and so had much more than a "zero chance" to beat Nole in the final. He'd be playing much higher than he is. It was an "if" which T then qualified by saying, "We know that's not going to happen."

Anyway, I'd give Rafa more than "zero chance" on any court, once he steps out there to play...

OK, I would have given him a 10% chance against Novak if the above materialized. Difference is, my original assessment of his chances against Novak is based on what Nadal is capable of now. Your suggestion is based on some fantasy land where he would have beaten Berdych and Murray. Well, he got straight setted by Berdych. That's pretty telling re: chances vs. Djokovic.

On the contrary, it isn't "my suggestion", it's a hypothesis which Tented put forward, with a qualification attached. So being straight-setted against Berdy doesn't apply here. You've done the odd hypothesis in your day, me old mucker, it's what keeps these pages afloat.

10%? I thought that "zero chance" was no exaggeration? We might get you up to 20% before the day is out. :snigger

In a hypothesis like this, anything can happen, but if you think Rafa would reach any slam final and only have 10% chance of winning, you've been infected with something. Lie down, drink something herbal and green. Turn off your phone. Inhale. Exhale. Repeat until... :devil

 

[Denis]

Thank you Tomas for this unexpected surprise this morning, well done!

This should keep the no 1 spot safe for quite some time now.

I hope to say the same to Raonic

It will be a hangover; for you or for me, let's see tomorrow.

 

[Carol]

Thank you Tomas for this unexpected surprise this morning, well done!

This should keep the no 1 spot safe for quite some time now.

I hope to say the same to Raonic

It will be a hangover; for you or for me, let's see tomorrow.

I don't really care who wins that match, I just want to see Muzz lifting the Trophy

 

[auto-pilot]

So what momentum and psychology does Nadal have when he'd only played like 8 matches in the past 6 months, is struggling with confidence/fitness/etc...?

If all things are equal, even if I'd consider Novak a strong favorite on this surface, of course I'd give Nadal a chance to win. That's a 60/40 match because Nadal is a big match player who's great at problem solving on the spot even if he's getting outplayed. But it's safe to say that a guy who just lost 6-2 6-0 7-6 to someone he'd beaten 17 times in a row was not going to beat Djokovic...

That really depends on which Nadal shows up on the day.
Because this AO has been the most inconsistent Nadal has ever been.
Heck, if Nadal had won that 3rd set tie-breaker versus Berdych (which Nadal had at 5-5 and serving), I suspect he would have found all kinds of form in set 4 and 5.

That's how its been for Nadal in this comeback, he's had no rhythm except for when the adrenaline is flowing - and the question in each round was "will he get into the groove for long enough to win?", and I suspect he would have in a slam final (and Djokovic is no wizard when it comes to slam finals, and neither is Nishikori, but Wawrinka obviously would have been pretty confident after last year's final).
But Murray looks ready for the crown anyway, and I suspect if there is anyone Nadal would have trouble getting the adrenaline going for it would be his good friend Murray.

But we'll never know, so lets move on to clay

 

[Fastgrass]

Berdych has new fan here!

#ResurgentTomas

 

[auto-pilot]

I guess Nadal forgave Berdych for this-

 

[MargaretMcAleer]

Welcome Auto Pilot to the forum,I gather you are a Rafa fan,as I have said many times,

'The More The Merrier'............

 

[auto-pilot]

Welcome Auto Pilot to the forum,I gather you are a Rafa fan,as I have said many times,

'The More The Merrier'............

Thanks its a merry world for sure no?