2015 ATP World Tour Finals: Federer vs Djokovic

[britbox]

Back to No1e vs Fed final, if No1e plays like he played against Rafa, I don’t think it will be much of the contest. On the other hand, they played some close matches in past so that may happen again. I expect No1e’s crescendo towards the end of the match and finishing it in style with backhand down the line winner on his first matchpoint. The only thing Fed can promise us is that if he doesn’t run away like he did last year, he will seat in No1e’s chair yet again (for the third or fourth time?). But that’s classy of him and very good for the sport.

"if No1e plays like he played against Rafa" - well he isn't playing Rafa and it's a totally different matchup.  He won't get the same serves to tee off on,  he'll get a much bigger variety of spin, changes of pace and less time.

Nole is favourite however but it takes two to tango and Federer brings a different set of challenges.

 

[ClayDeath]

Mastoor wrote:
<blockquote>
Moxie wrote:
<blockquote>
britbox wrote:
<blockquote>
Moxie wrote:
<blockquote>
britbox wrote:
<blockquote>
shawnbm wrote:
Although my head picks Novak to win, my heart would like to see Federer get another big win over Djokovic in a major event. It would be good in many levels, and make January very interesting.

Agreed. I’m thinking it would be good for the sport going into next year if Federer takes him down here.</blockquote>
Why would that be good for the sport? Because then we wouldn’t have an overly dominant single player? Rather rich from Federer fans, no? Who were perfectly happy when Roger had no plausible competition back in ’04-’07? Djokovic has earned the entire cupcake this year, and I think he takes it.</blockquote>
Largely because it keeps things more interesting. When Nadal threw down the gauntlet to Federer, it made things more interesting. Competition makes things more interesting, full stop. I don’t dispute he has “earned the year” – of course he has. I was a Safin fan first and foremost back in 04-07 by the way </blockquote>
Oh, don’t try to make it up to me by playing to my Safin soft-spot. Ha! Nor deflect the point by pretending that Fed fans didn’t love the crap out of when he dominated. The thing I don’t see so much celebrated is the resurgence of Nadal, but either the Feddies or the Djokolites. If good competition is great for tennis, then so is the return of Rafa. Can I get an Amen?! (Tick, tick…I guess I’m waiting for a GFYS.)</blockquote>
This all what Moxie said about competition and Rafa’s resurgence makes sense. If anything will make competition more “interesting” next year that is Rafa in his old form, but on the other hand that will mean less titles for the other guys so it makes their fans unlikely to cheer to Rafa’s resurgence.</blockquote>
Have people considered that Rafa “getting back to form” may not be enough? There seems to be a general feeling that all Rafa has to do is “get back to form” and all in the garden is rosy. Djokovic isn’t the same player – he’s improved in ALL departments. Federer isn’t the same player – he’s changed things up a lot to stay relevant – changed racquets, changed tactics, added shots and evolved. Then look at who has stayed still or regressed… Murray even admitted he’d lost the variety he added into his game when under Lendl. The gulf between him and Djokovic and Federer and maybe even Nadal looks bigger than it has done in 5 years. I’m interested in somebody explaining what fundamental improvements has Nadal made to his game in the last 3 years? If you stay still, you’re going backwards.

 

rafa became a bit complacent at the end of 2010.

this is the end of 2015.

so to answer your question objectively and I am an expert on heavy topspin game and also Rafa, he has not bothered to progress and innovate since the end of 2010. that is the most profound issue that hounds Rafa today. of course the other is that he has simply given up now. he has too tall a mountain to climb now.

he was simply too good and had the youth on his side. he could outhustle and outmuscle the world with his mighty will, his lethal topspin forehand, his more than adequate topspin backhand and his blazing speed and agility. he had the natural competitive advantage on clay because of his heavy topspin game. that allowed him to bag 46 clay titles. that allowed him to dominate the red clay for nearly a decade.

he could win another 4 years after the end of 2010 but it had to catch up with him and it has.

I saw it coming as early as after the 2009 Australian open. even as early as 2008 when he played and won more matches on the hard courts than anyone alive. I knew he was going to have endless bouts with injuries and he has. failure to progress and innovate only compounded the issues.

he left a lot on the table with his injuries. with better management of his fitness and his training he could have reduced the incidence of some of his injuries.

 

more on this next time but his game is in total shambles. heavy casualties on every single front.

now add to that the fact that djokovic has made significant improvements in every single aspect of his game. so now people should start to get an idea of that gulf.

there is no resurgence as there are no improvements in the game, the fitness, and the physicality. i don't see the improvements.

i also don't see any work ethic or any real sense of urgency.

it took him nearly 3 hours to shake off ferru yesterday.

the year is over. what does he have to his name? rio does not count and neither does hamburg.

people just don't realize how steep the fall is. it is over 5 years in the making.

he did this to himself. only he can fix some of this but it has to be on clay and the time is fast running out.

forget the improvements. just talk about results. there are no results to speak of. over 30 months since a hard court title. over 30 months and now you can add another 12 for next year.

if he fails again next year at the masters events that will make it 3 years without masters events. the probability of that is pretty damn high right now.

more on this tomorrow.

 

[DarthFed]

Djokovic is the heavy favorite and probably wins.  I'm surprised Roger did so well here up to this point as he had struggled this Fall.  This is a huge match for Roger for many reasons:

1. Salvage his 2015 with his biggest title in over 3 years
2. finish #2 which helps for draw purposes at the slams
3. history wise this is huge. If Nole wins he is almost certainly beating Roger's record here of 6.  If Roger wins it would be very tough for Nole to break it by winning 4 more, he might not be able to tie it even.

 

[MikeOne]

bigger match for Federer than for Djokovic and this is one of Roger's best surfaces so he has a good chance. There are several variables in this encounter but i think the most important one will be Novak's mental state. Roger will play well and frustrate Novak (as Roger usually does with his variety and serve) so it will be up to Novak to stay positive and just keep fighting. When these two play, the matches are usually decided on a few key points where one breaks the other. If Novak stays positive, even after losing a set, i think his consistently brilliant tennis beats a brilliant, yet a bit less consistent Federer. On a faster surface, Federer can runs way with the match but i'm not sure here.. I think it's a toss up because i think Federer wants this more than Novak but Novak is the better player right now. Novak has had an amazing year and for sure he wants to end in dramatic fashion by winning here but Roger needs this win to make a statement.

 

[ClayDeath]

bigger match for Federer than for Djokovic and this is one of Roger’s best surfaces so he has a good chance. There are several variables in this encounter but i think the most important one will be Novak’s mental state. Roger will play well and frustrate Novak (as Roger usually does with his variety and serve) so it will be up to Novak to stay positive and just keep fighting. When these two play, the matches are usually decided on a few key points where one breaks the other. If Novak stays positive, even after losing a set, i think his consistently brilliant tennis beats a brilliant, yet a bit less consistent Federer. On a faster surface, Federer can runs way with the match but i’m not sure here.. I think it’s a toss up because i think Federer wants this more than Novak but Novak is the better player right now. Novak has had an amazing year and for sure he wants to end in dramatic fashion by winning here but Roger needs this win to make a statement.

3 things have to happen for roger today:

1. serve big
2. forehand has to click
3. return well.

if these 3 things click right away then roger can get this done in straights.

finally we can add one more variable: djokovic needs to be a little bit off.

 

[britbox]

Novak v Roger.

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[Mastoor]

Ajde No1e idemo! 6-0 6-0! King is dead!

 

[britbox]

Roger v Nole. Players due out imminently.

 

[Billie]

Morning BB

 

[britbox]

Morning Billie!

 

[Billie]

I woke up hours ago ;-)

 

[britbox]

Ha ha. It's 4am here - just got up.

 

[Billie]

bloody Mastoor....you better hope Nole just wins...any way he can

 

[Billie]

you are a trooper BB!!

 

[Billie]

Today's another BB's birthday ;-)

 

[britbox]

Boris?

 

[Billie]

yep

 

[Billie]

here comes Fed

 

[britbox]

Which chair will Roger sit on?

 

[Billie]

anybody's guess ;-)