2015 ATP World Tour Finals: Federer vs Djokovic

[Billie]

Hi Billie. The questions were Moxie’s that I quoted and answered from what I observed. Thank you for the link.

OMG, and I was thinking hm...EG watched it and commented with me and BB, I am sure of that....alrighty then   The post makes sense now.

 

[Moxie]

It was my question, and the interview was useful, as I didn't watch most of the match.  Actually very interesting to hear what he thought about the match, tactically, and what he changed from earlier in the week.  Thanks, Billie!

 

[amicitia81]

With his final triumph against Federer in the ATP Finals, Novak Djokovic has ended a dream season. But the question we could ask if it was really the best. If you want to know the answer to this great question click here

www.thetennisbase.com/?enlace=noticias&accion=detalle&codigo=966

 

[MikeOne]

Since 2011, when Novak is in lock down, in the zone mode, i haven't seen him lose a big match. with some exceptions.

The other losses were IMO, due to a unstable Djokovic. These are some of his biggest losses during 11-15:

2011: Federer at FO semis. Novak was clearly frustrated in this match and had bad mental lapses. His earlier QF opponent had retired so he had gone an extra day without playing and seemed agitated. Towards the end, he was beginning to get it together but it was too late, Roger snatched the win

2012 FO final. Novak didn't play his best in this final, he was just not in locked down mode.

2012 Wimbledon semis. Not a good showing against Federer in semis; again, a bit mentally unstable

2012 USO. Definitely not a good showing vs Murray in finals, he seemed clearly off his best

2013 Wimbledon final. Again, just not as mentally stable as he is when he's at his best, Murray got some help here.

2013 USO final. Same thing here, Nadal played well but Rafa sort of stole this match from the better player on hardc ourts

2014: FO. Not Novak's best showing in FO final.

2014 USO. Not at his best vs Nishikori, clearly

Now this is subjective but i have been a big fan of Novak since 08 and i know when he's in what i call 'locked down' mode, where he is super focused, confident and mentally strong. There are some big matches though where i felt he lost even when at his best, but they are few and far between:

2014 AO vs Stan. Stan just has the game to give Novak fits. He is the only player i can think of that can hit through Novak's defenses consistently, he is so strong.

2013 FO semis vs Nadal. Here Novak played brilliantly and without that famous overhead blunder, probably would've won. Now i don't think one silly mistake is enough to claim he wasn't at his best though, Rafael played unbelievable tennis in 5th set, hitting winner after winner against Novak, of all people. Only a Rafa at his very very best and possibly playing even above his normal best, could beat Novak on this day

Cincinnati losses to Federer. In these two losses, Novak was at Roger's mercy. In this very fast surface, when Roger is serving well and attacking, he can beat novak by not allowing Novak to get into any rhythm.

2015 FO final. Here, Stan just played unbelievable and even though beating Rafa in QF and Murray in SF  was an emotional and physical roller coaster for Novak, Stan has the game to beat Novak.

For the most of 11 and 15, we saw Novak in full locked down mode and it's nearly impossible to beat him unless you are Stan (matchup issues for Novak) or you are Fed on a fast surface. When Novak is at his best, he has unbelievable defense, unbelievable return, amazing groundstrokes, very good serve and more variety than people give him credit for (underrated volleys, slice and drop shots). Off the ground, his ability to consistently hit deep, take ball early and change directions with ease, makes him the best of all time off the ground. He is way too complete and of course, extremely fit and mentally strong.

 

 

 

 

[ClayDeath]

Since 2011, when Novak is in lock down, in the zone mode, i haven’t seen him lose a big match. with some exceptions. The other losses were IMO, due to a unstable Djokovic. These are some of his biggest losses during 11-15: 2011: Federer at FO semis. Novak was clearly frustrated in this match and had bad mental lapses. His earlier QF opponent had retired so he had gone an extra day without playing and seemed agitated. Towards the end, he was beginning to get it together but it was too late, Roger snatched the win 2012 FO final. Novak didn’t play his best in this final, he was just not in locked down mode. 2012 Wimbledon semis. Not a good showing against Federer in semis; again, a bit mentally unstable 2012 USO. Definitely not a good showing vs Murray in finals, he seemed clearly off his best 2013 Wimbledon final. Again, just not as mentally stable as he is when he’s at his best, Murray got some help here. 2013 USO final. Same thing here, Nadal played well but Rafa sort of stole this match from the better player on hardc ourts 2014: FO. Not Novak’s best showing in FO final. 2014 USO. Not at his best vs Nishikori, clearly Now this is subjective but i have been a big fan of Novak since 08 and i know when he’s in what i call ‘locked down’ mode, where he is super focused, confident and mentally strong. There are some big matches though where i felt he lost even when at his best, but they are few and far between: 2014 AO vs Stan. Stan just has the game to give Novak fits. He is the only player i can think of that can hit through Novak’s defenses consistently, he is so strong. 2013 FO semis vs Nadal. Here Novak played brilliantly and without that famous overhead blunder, probably would’ve won. Now i don’t think one silly mistake is enough to claim he wasn’t at his best though, Rafael played unbelievable tennis in 5th set, hitting winner after winner against Novak, of all people. Only a Rafa at his very very best and possibly playing even above his normal best, could beat Novak on this day Cincinnati losses to Federer. In these two losses, Novak was at Roger’s mercy. In this very fast surface, when Roger is serving well and attacking, he can beat novak by not allowing Novak to get into any rhythm. 2015 FO final. Here, Stan just played unbelievable and even though beating Rafa in QF and Murray in SF was an emotional and physical roller coaster for Novak, Stan has the game to beat Novak. For the most of 11 and 15, we saw Novak in full locked down mode and it’s nearly impossible to beat him unless you are Stan (matchup issues for Novak) or you are Fed on a fast surface. When Novak is at his best, he has unbelievable defense, unbelievable return, amazing groundstrokes, very good serve and more variety than people give him credit for (underrated volleys, slice and drop shots). Off the ground, his ability to consistently hit deep, take ball early and change directions with ease, makes him the best of all time off the ground. He is way too complete and of course, extremely fit and mentally strong.

at the  end of 2010 something dramatic and significant happened in the tennis universe as I have suggested if you have seen some of my posts:

rafa took his foot off the gas for any number of reasons. perhaps he saw no challenges in front of him. he was not thinking like djokovic.  he was not thinking constant progress, innovation, and continuous hard work to keep and maintain that competitive advantage he had. so some of it was complacency. he also depleted some of his mental, emotional, and physical capital to some extent at the end of 2010. but it is clear he must have felt that he had no rivals at the end of 2010. he had taken slams on 3 different surfaces. Rafa not only took his foot off the gas, he would fail to progress, innovate, and make changes to take his game and his fitness to the next level. he could have set himself up for 3 more slam in 2011.

that is where djokovic saw an opportunity and took it. he would go on to beat Rafa in no less than 7 finals in 2011. basically Rafa has never caught up. Rafa was good enough to keep taking RG because of his unique competitive advantage on the red clay but little by little his clay supremacy would erode as it was going with the dynamics and trends in place.

rafa made his one last dream run in 2013 where he got on a bit of a roll on the north American hard court circuit. he would play his 2nd greatest hard court match ever at the 2013 U.S. Open final. his greatest hard match court was in 2009 at the Australian Open.

 

people forget that Rafa was still taking RG and a few other big clay events in 2013.

 

more next time. to be continued.

 

[DarthFed]

Since 2011, when Novak is in lock down, in the zone mode, i haven’t seen him lose a big match. with some exceptions. The other losses were IMO, due to a unstable Djokovic. These are some of his biggest losses during 11-15: 2011: Federer at FO semis. Novak was clearly frustrated in this match and had bad mental lapses. His earlier QF opponent had retired so he had gone an extra day without playing and seemed agitated. Towards the end, he was beginning to get it together but it was too late, Roger snatched the win 2012 FO final. Novak didn’t play his best in this final, he was just not in locked down mode. 2012 Wimbledon semis. Not a good showing against Federer in semis; again, a bit mentally unstable 2012 USO. Definitely not a good showing vs Murray in finals, he seemed clearly off his best 2013 Wimbledon final. Again, just not as mentally stable as he is when he’s at his best, Murray got some help here. 2013 USO final. Same thing here, Nadal played well but Rafa sort of stole this match from the better player on hardc ourts 2014: FO. Not Novak’s best showing in FO final. 2014 USO. Not at his best vs Nishikori, clearly Now this is subjective but i have been a big fan of Novak since 08 and i know when he’s in what i call ‘locked down’ mode, where he is super focused, confident and mentally strong. There are some big matches though where i felt he lost even when at his best, but they are few and far between: 2014 AO vs Stan. Stan just has the game to give Novak fits. He is the only player i can think of that can hit through Novak’s defenses consistently, he is so strong. 2013 FO semis vs Nadal. Here Novak played brilliantly and without that famous overhead blunder, probably would’ve won. Now i don’t think one silly mistake is enough to claim he wasn’t at his best though, Rafael played unbelievable tennis in 5th set, hitting winner after winner against Novak, of all people. Only a Rafa at his very very best and possibly playing even above his normal best, could beat Novak on this day Cincinnati losses to Federer. In these two losses, Novak was at Roger’s mercy. In this very fast surface, when Roger is serving well and attacking, he can beat novak by not allowing Novak to get into any rhythm. 2015 FO final. Here, Stan just played unbelievable and even though beating Rafa in QF and Murray in SF was an emotional and physical roller coaster for Novak, Stan has the game to beat Novak. For the most of 11 and 15, we saw Novak in full locked down mode and it’s nearly impossible to beat him unless you are Stan (matchup issues for Novak) or you are Fed on a fast surface. When Novak is at his best, he has unbelievable defense, unbelievable return, amazing groundstrokes, very good serve and more variety than people give him credit for (underrated volleys, slice and drop shots). Off the ground, his ability to consistently hit deep, take ball early and change directions with ease, makes him the best of all time off the ground. He is way too complete and of course, extremely fit and mentally strong.

Agreed.  Really in general when Novak is playing well he is going to win because from 2011 - present he is by far and away the best player in the world.  Roger can beat him on fast courts in best 2 out of 3 but best of 5 is a different ballgame.  I am no fan of Rafa and it will come off as being biased against him but I think all things considered Nole has mentally struggled at RG for many years now and that's contributed to the losses.  On paper Novak should've been able to take the 2014 final and possibly even 2013 semi, which was an up and down match for him even before the overhead late in the 5th.  The loss to Stan was somewhat similar from a mental standpoint though Stan obviously beat Novak in a different way than Rafa does.

Nole probably wants it too bad, probably thinks about RG for much of the year leading up to it and the closer he gets the tougher it will be to perform well.  If it's Rafa, Stan or possibly even Roger against him in the RG final next year it could be a similar story though I do think he will break through one of the next 2 years there.

 

[MikeOne]

claydeath, stop with the Rafa took foot off the gas after 2010, this is stupid. In 2011, Rafa was on a tear but he had a little problem - prime unstoppable Djokovic. In 2011, Rafa was as good as 2010 IMO, just look at what he did - IW, Miami, Monte carlo, Rome finals... who did he lose to? 1 guy - Nole. He won FO then made Wimbledon finals and lost to? Nole. US open? final again, losing to Nole! Without prime Nole, Nadal would've won IW, Miami, MC, Rome, FO, Wimbledon and US open? who knows what else. You and everyone else would be talking about an amazing 2011 year for nadal, he just ran into prime Nole who has always and will always be a nightmare matchup for him. So stop with the nonsense that Rafa's level came down, Nole was his only obstacle on 2011.

In 2012, Rafa started very strong. He made finals of AO (beating Roger in semis) and took Novak to a marathon 5 sets on Novak's BEST surface. You put 08 Nadal in there and Nole probably DESTROYS HIM... I mean, Tsonga crushed 08 Nadal at AO and later lost to baby Novak.  Rafa in 11 and during beginning of 12 WAS AT HIS VERY BEST...just ran into prime Novak who again, has always had the perfect game to beat Rafa.

to twisted: - I believe Stan is the only player who can beat Novak at his best. History shows us every player has his nemesis (borg - Mac, Fed - Nadal, nadal - Nole etc..) and Stan has the perfect game to give Novak problems on slower surfaces. Stan is built like a linebacker and can crush groundtstrokes consistently, with unbelievable power. Novak has amazing defense and offense himself but bashing the ball with Stan and running down winners isn't a winning formula against Stan. I get frustrated watching Stan bullying Novak off the baseline and think Novak should play more aggressively, use more variety but it's a bit of a match-up issue. Stan is mostly uncomfortable against players like Roger, who use variety and refuse to just get into a baseline bashing contest with him... We'll see going forward but i'd like to see Nole change his strategy against Stan, he looks helpless just rallying with Stan and relying too much on long rallies and defense.

 

[ClayDeath]

claydeath, stop with the Rafa took foot off the bass after 2010, this is stupid. In 2011, Rafa was on a tear but he had a little problem – prime unstoppable Djokovic. In 2011, Rafa was as good as 2010 IMO, just look at what he did – IW, Miami, Monte carlo, Rome finals… who did he lose to? 1 guy – Nole. He won FO then made Wimbledon finals and lost to? Nole. Without prime Nole, Nadal would’ve won IW, Miami, MC, Rome, FO, Wimbledon and who knows what else. You and everyone else would be talking about an amazing 2011 year for nadal, he just ran into prime Nole who has always and will always be a nightmare matchup for him. So stop with the nonsense that Rafa’s level came down, Nole was his only obstacle on 2011. In 2012, Rafa started very strong. He made finals of AO (beating Roger in semis) and took Novak to a marathon 5 sets in Novak’s BEST surface. You put 08 Nadal in there and Nole probably DESTROYS HIM… I mean, Tsonga crushed 08 Nadal at AO and later lost to baby Novak… see the picture i’m painting here? Rafa in 11 and during beginning of 12 WAS AT HIS VERY BEST…just ran into prime Novak who again, has always had the perfect game to beat Rafa. to twisted: – I believe Stan is the only player who can beat Novak at his best. History shows us every player has his nemesis (borg – Mac, Fed – Nadal, nadal – Nole etc..) and Stan has the perfect game to give Novak problems on slower surfaces. Stan is built like a linebacker and can crush groundtstrokes consistently, with unbelievable power. Novak has amazing defense and offense himself but bashing the ball with Stan and running down winners isn’t a winning formula against Stan. I get frustrated watching Stan bullying Novak off the baseline and think Novak should play more aggressively, use more variety but it’s a bit of a match-up issue. Stan is mostly uncomfortable against players like Roger, who use variety and refuse to just get into a baseline bashing contest with him… We’ll see going forward but i’d like to see Nole change his strategy against Stan, he looks helpless just rallying with Stan and relying too much on long rallies and defense.

negative general mike:

you forgot to see the more profound picture there. first of all djokovic was not prime djokovic in 2011.

Rafa failed to progress, innovate, and go for continuous improvement after a hugely successful 2010 as you see Djokovic doing now.

Prime Djokovic is now. he is at the peak of his abilities now but becker has him believing that he can improve.

this is why djokovic echos becker's belief now. he said that he is constantly trying to improve all the time and also that he cant wait to get into the off season to work on his fitness and his game. Djokovic is not this sharp by accident. it is by design he said he was going to outwork the world and he is doing it.

 

you simply manage to overlook one simple but profound fact: one never really bothered to progress, innovate, and work tirelessly to maintain his competitive advantage while other cant stop doing enough to improve, progress, and innovate.

and that is the biggest reason why Rafa found himself spent. that is the reason why he is in the bind that he finds himself in now.

Djokovic is not the only one running him off the court. how many times has fognini beat him this year alone. 50 year old ferru with no weapons kept Rafa on the court for nearly 3 hours the other day.

you saw what dustin brown did to him at Wimbledon. and you should know precisely what has been going on at Wimbledon for the last 4 years:

he keeps getting killed there. why? this man made 5 Wimbledon finals and won 2 of them. one of them was over prime Federer who is considered the greatest grass court player of all time.

Rafa has zero improvements to speak of after the end of 2010. now compare that with Djokovic. Djokovic has improved his game and his fitness on every single front.

 

what good is Rafa's #5 rank when at the end of the year all he has to show is Rio and Hamburg. are they even considered titles for him? was anybody there? did he face anybody ranked higher that #25 at Rio.

more later. to be continued.

 

[DarthFed]

I also think a big part of Nole's problem vs. Stan is he struggles to anticipate where Stan's going with his backhand.  I noticed that in their AO matches over the years, and when you add in Stan's power it makes it that much more difficult to deal with.  I think the only things Nole might regret in the RG final this year is he wasn't aggressive enough with the forehand and he didn't serve particularly well.  Stan dictated the majority of the points but there were numerous times Nole could've attacked and didn't.

 

[Billie]

Mike, head to head between Nole and Stan is 21 to 4.  Two of Stan's wins came in 2006, then he couldn't beat Nole till AO 2014.  Granted they did have some tight matches that went Nole's way.  Like I always say it is very hard to always win, you have to be really healthy, relatively fresh and mentally able to sustain the pressure in every match.   Stan started believing in himself more after that 2014 AO win.  Two of them have trained together for about 3 years now and became really good friends.   Some Nole fans even told me that it is not good for Nole to be so friendly with Stan, I really don't know why.

I told this story before on the old forum:  Nole was a guest in one of the TV shows in Serbia in February of 2014 and the host asked Nole about that match against Stan in Australia.  At the end of the day, Stan didn't blink...that was in short Nole's answer.  In some previous matches Stan would go away at some point of a match, but not in that match.  Nole said he could sense it, I guess players feel each other on the court better than we can do it.  Nole gave him full credit for the win.  Stan became so much better mentally in the last few years so when the opportunity arises he can beat anybody.    Because I always find something more behind almost anything,  I go back to the fall of 2013, the mess with Troicki, the disappointment of DC final, those exhos in South America after the season was over, the start of working with Boris for the first time.  I think Nole was still reeling from all of this when AO came.  So combine it with an inspired opponent, it still went 9:7 in the fifth set for Stan to beat Nole.

As for FO, there is nervousness about never winning here before, I am sure, but in 2014 he was not feeling well (it is possible that nerves caused the sickness), he won set #1 but couldn't do anything else.  In that match even Rafa fought fatigue, tiredness, something but he was able to prevail.  This year, I think that semi final being carried over to Saturday made an impact on Nole as well as he couldn't rest and recharge as he would normally do before a big final.   Started well and won set #1 but started fading as the match went on.  It happens to his opponents on numerous occasions, it is a big part of why a player wins.

As he is not a natural on clay and doesn't love it in the same way as true clay-courters do, Nole will have to be lucky with schedule, weather, draws and maybe he'll win it once.  I still hope.

 

[MikeOne]

wrong clay death, simply wrong..

 

Nadal was at his vert best in 2011, period. Novak was just too good. Nadal made finals of 3 slams and finals of like 5 masters, lost pretty much all finals to Nole. Clearly Nole was not the same player in 11 than he was in 2010, everyone knows this! He went undefeated until FO! THIS was Rafa's problem...Nole. So, IMO, Rafa's level in 2011 was the same it was in 2010, end of story.

you are also completely wrong when you state that Rafa failed to 'innovate' or adjust. He DID! He was much better on hard courts in 2010, 2011 than he was back in 08. Remember, back in 08, Tsonga humiliated Nadal in semis and who did Tsonga lose to in finals? baby Novak. At USO, Nadal lost to Ferrer! Now in 2010, Nadal won USO and in 2011 made USO finals. In 2012, Rafa made AO final and gave Novak a classic marathon match. Do you think 08 Nadal would've given Novak a match in 2012? I think he would've been lucky to make sets close! Then in 2013, Nadal went on a tear on hard courts and won IW, Cincinnati, USO and other big hard court tournaments. Clearly and WITHOUT A DOUBT, Nadal made adjustments to his game on hard courts, the problem was Djokovic. Djokovic at his best simply beats Nadal at his best, it's that simple, just accept it.

Billie, I know Novak enjoys a great record vs Stan but as you point out, Stan became 'Stan the man' around 2013, when he gained confidence after giving Novak a war at AO and hired Magnus Norman. Since 2013, they have played 5 grand slam matches and guess what - all have been WARS. The record is 3-2 with Novak winning all 3 in 5 sets, losing 1 in 5 sets and losing the other in 4. Pretty much, Stan has been HELL for Novak a slams. There is something here and it's Stan's ability to hit through Novak's defenses in a way no other player can.

 

[ClayDeath]

wrong clay death, simply wrong.. Nadal was at his vert best in 2011, period. Novak was just too good. Nadal made finals of 3 slams and finals of like 5 masters, lost pretty much all finals to Nole. Clearly Nole was not the same player in 11 than he was in 2010, everyone knows this! He went undefeated until FO! THIS was Rafa’s problem…Nole. So, IMO, Rafa’s level in 2011 was the same it was in 2010, end of story. you are also completely wrong when you state that Rafa failed to ‘innovate’ or adjust. He DID! He was much better on hard courts in 2010, 2011 than he was back in 08. Remember, back in 08, Tsonga humiliated Nadal in semis and who did Tsonga lose to in finals? baby Novak. At USO, Nadal lost to Ferrer! Now in 2010, Nadal won USO and in 2011 made USO finals. In 2012, Rafa made AO final and gave Novak a classic marathon match. Do you think 08 Nadal would’ve given Novak a match in 2012? I think he would’ve been lucky to make sets close! Then in 2013, Nadal went on a tear on hard courts and won IW, Cincinnati, USO and other big hard court tournaments. Clearly and WITHOUT A DOUBT, Nadal made adjustments to his game on hard courts, the problem was Djokovic. Djokovic at his best simply beats Nadal at his best, it’s that simple, just accept it. Billie, I know Novak enjoys a great record vs Stan but as you point out, Stan became ‘Stan the man’ around 2013, when he gained confidence after giving Novak a war at AO and hired Magnus Norman. Since 2013, they have played 5 grand slam matches and guess what – all have been WARS. The record is 3-2 with Novak winning all 3 in 5 sets, losing 1 in 5 sets and losing the other in 4. Pretty much, Stan has been HELL for Novak a slams. There is something here and it’s Stan’s ability to hit through Novak’s defenses in a way no other player can.

 

 

it is not quite that simple old sport.

 

I will explain more tomorrow. rafa did get on a bit of a roll at the north American hard court circuit in 2013 but the match against djokovic was extremely close at the rogers cup. the deciding frame was the tiebreaker and could have gone either way.

but what I am going to say is this: the other big three---Federer, andy, and djokovic--were a little off their game.

rafa got on a bit of a roll and never looked back. he played his 2nd greatest match ever on the hard courts in that 2013 u.s. open final.

 

you are comparing the current Rafa-- with the heavily diluted game and significantly diminished fitness-- with djokovic. you are just not seeing this as clearly as i know you can.

 

the best possible version of djokovic is now and not back in those old days. rafa could take him on the red clay and get his wins for instance.

now rafa cant win masters events, let alone the slams.

 

Rafa did gun down djokovic at least 4 times in 2013. twice on clay and twice on the hard courts but that was an older version of djokovic. he was a little bit shaky in 2013. djokovic made more changes in his fitness and his game and simply became untouchable after 2013 but he started his true progress at the end of 2010.

those changes that you speak of for rafa were based on the sample of 3 observations: rogers cup, cincy, and the open. that sample size is not large enough at all. rafa does that still from time to time but that is not a real change in his game anyway.

he simply focused better, fought better, and he stepped in to return better. he was also relatively fit to make that 3 tournament run at the north American circuit happen in 2013.

 

I don't care about what would happen with peak rafa and peak djokovic. that is not the discussion right now.

peak rafa is unbeatable by djokovic on clay. there is no way to spin that. peak rafa on clay dominates the clay for a decade. and he did that. no way to spin around that. peak rafa is the greatest clay court player ever lived. no way around that. his record speaks for him. 46 titles while almost always being injured and also with no real changes in his game. rafa has been injured off and on since he was 17.

 

anyway more tomorrow.

 

keep up the great discussions. you are a massive asset here.

 

[britbox]

There is a lot of grey area here @mikeone and @claydeath... it isn't a binary equation.

I don't see prime Novak edging prime Nadal on clay.  Never did frankly.  We can talk about mental issues and forage for reasons why Novak lost a match... but he lost them, end of.  The mental side is part and parcel of what makes great players great.

Is Novak a match-up issue for Nadal?  Most definitely.  Is it one Nadal has been able to overcome on clay... yes. The proof is in the pudding. I'd hazard a guess that if you asked Novak what his toughest assignment was.. the answer would be Nadal on clay.  Federer might worry him more on other surfaces, but beating Nadal on clay would still be the toughest assignment out there.

 

[britbox]

On another note, I'd agree with @mikeone that Nadal was still close to his best in 2011... but Novak lost to Federer at RG.  My recollection was more like Federer played superbly that day  - it was a high quality match. So, then we have the field coming into play... not just a two man head to head.... and the bottom line is Novak has yet to win RG.

 

[ClayDeath]

On another note, I’d agree with @mikeone that Nadal was still close to his best in 2011… but Novak lost to Federer at RG. My recollection was more like Federer played superbly that day – it was a high quality match. So, then we have the field coming into play… not just a two man head to head…. and the bottom line is Novak has yet to win RG.

he lost at least 7 finals to Djokovic alone. you call that being close to his best.

Rafa close to his best does not lose all those finals.

he was just spent in some of them. worn out.

Rafa backed off a little bit with his training and his fitness at the end of 2010 and it cost him.

about the same time--or coincident with that---djokovic made significant changes in his training, fitness, and nutrition.

 

more later. stay tuned.

 

[ClayDeath]

I think if others fail to step up their work and fail to make the sacrifices they need to make, djokovic will easily produce another year like this one.

and without any injuries too.

 

in an interview Boris Becker  said that Novak Djokovic  can improve his game and his mental ability. Boris Becker said also " I like the way How Novak Djokovic play he is very fit and plays very solid,He has no problems in playing inside the court, has a more solid serve and doesn't fear to go to the net."

 

[MikeOne]

There is a lot of grey area here @mikeone and @claydeath… it isn’t a binary equation. I don’t see prime Novak edging prime Nadal on clay. Never did frankly. We can talk about mental issues and forage for reasons why Novak lost a match… but he lost them, end of. The mental side is part and parcel of what makes great players great. Is Novak a match-up issue for Nadal? Most definitely. Is it one Nadal has been able to overcome on clay… yes. The proof is in the pudding. I’d hazard a guess that if you asked Novak what his toughest assignment was.. the answer would be Nadal on clay. Federer might worry him more on other surfaces, but beating Nadal on clay would still be the toughest assignment out there.

I'm a big Rafa fan, always have been but i also like Novak. What i try to avoid is being biased between he two. I can't deny i'm a little biased against Federer but even with him, i have tried to not get carried away by my biases.

When it comes to Rafa, there are a few myths to dispel. The first one is that he was at his best on clay between 05-08. The reason his most ardent fans argue this is because during that period, he only lost a few matches and had that 81 match win streak. For sure we can't ignore actual results but unfortunately, we have to not just look at hard facts and get into some subjective discussions. Nadal during 05-08 was absolutely dominant on clay but he hadn't yet reached his prime. Nadal's prime, IMO, was between 08-13. Nadal's best years, without any doubt, are 2008, 2010 and 2013. There isn't any doubt about this at all, period. To argue that Rafa somehow improved his all around game between 08-13 but became mysteriously worse on clay, is quite frankly a bit stupid. Yes he had that 81 match win streak and yes he looked unbeatable but he simply wasn't as good all around as he was between 08-13. The fact that he didn't go on a 80 match clay win streak during 08-13 means little to me, it just means that type of streak is almost impossible to repeat, especially mentally. Between 05-08 Rafael was pedestrian on hard courts, getting beat by nobodies and he really didn't have much of chance outside of clay, on big tournaments. Between 08-13 he became a MAJOR THREAT, on ANY SURFACE and piled up hard courts slams and masters like he never did during 05-08; not to mention, he continued to dominate clay, although to a lesser degree for good reasons. The first reason is that his competition got stiffer. Once Novak got it together physically and mentally, he has beaten Rafa 6 times on clay. 2015 aside (because for sure Rafa was below his best on all surfaces), Novak beat prime Nadal on clay, more than a few times. In 2011, he straight setted Rafa in 2 clay court masters and continued to beat him over the years, although Rafa also beat him. Rafa's level on clay between 11-13 was the same as it was during 05-08, he just had to contend with a player who really does present a nightmare match-up against him. The other reason Rafa didn't focus on 80 match win streaks on clay is because he was doing MUCH BETTER ON other surfaces. It doesn't mean he wasn't as good on clay, it just means he paced himself better, in order to compete on other surfaces. What was Rafael doing outside of clay when he had that 80 match win streak? getting destroyed by guys like Youhzny, Tsonga, Ferrer on hardcourt slams, embarrassing really. Since he was so pedestrian outside of clay, Rafael's strategy was to absolutely sweep clay events, to amass points. During 08-13, Rafa was actually winning AO, USO, Wimbledon and many more hardcourt masters. He didn't need to win 80 matches on clay to stay at #2 or attain #1! Frankly, if he had won 80 matches in a row i don't think he would've been able to be so successful outside of clay, this is too taxing mentally and physically. I have no doubt that Rafa's level on 2010, 2011 and 2013 was better than between 05-08, he was a BETTER PLAYER, end of discussion.

Now, about Nole vs Rafa on clay. Let's look at prime Rafa vs prime Nole on clay:

2011 - Novak straight sets prime Rafa easily at Monte carlo and rome.

2012 - Nadal beats Novak at MC, Rome and FO

2013 - Novak beats Rafa at MC, Rafa beats him at FO

2014 - Novak beats Rafa at Rome, Rafa beats him at FO

so prime Rafa vs prime Novak on clay - 5-4 Rafa, very tight. Now, it's important to note that Rafa went 3-0 at Roland but to be honest, the match where both seemed at their very best was 2013. This match pretty much shows what happens when both are at their very best, pretty much a toss up. Nole was up a break in 5th set and Rafa had to play a level even considered above him to beat Novak, and he needed a bit of help from Novak. In the 5th set, Rafa went all out with his fh and produced winner after winner, against a supreme defender, it was 9-7! So both at their very very best on clay, the match can go either way, perhaps the slights edge to Rafa as Novak's game has less margin. Now what people need to stop saying is that i'm arguing Novak is better than Rafa on clay, this is silly (9 FO vs 0) but the point is the match-up problems. Novak, is an amazing clay court player with the perfect game to beat Rafa; he's not better than Rafa on clay against everyone else but head to head, he is right there...

 

[ClayDeath]

that is a good post mikeone but think about what you just said. it is consistent with what I have been saying:

 

Rafa took his foot off the gas at the end of 2010. it is there that you saw him lose control of the long rally against djokovic who decided to take his game and his fitness higher than it had been in 2010.

rafa did not bother to progress and innovate or even maintain his game and his fitness by his own standards after the end of 2010.  coincident with that is the greater incidence of injuries which started to occur.

and djokovic resolved to take advantage of the opportunity.

 

little by little Rafa lost control of the long rally to Djokovic. he was still plenty good enough for the rest of the world but his true competition was Djokovic.

that was going to come into play even more on clay since clay requires supreme fitness and near superhuman physical strength. Rafa's style of play (heavy topspin off both wings and grinding) required that. his game is very heavily dependent on supreme fitness and physicality.

this is all djokovic and becker talk about: they both talk about how fit and physical djokovic is and how they are both going to work tirelessly to take that element even higher.

 

Rafa has lost control of the long rally. ask yourself why. this is the greatest baseliner the world has ever known.

how could he have dropped so much? how could his game be so heavily deluted?

it is not djokovic. djokovic is simply taking advantage of his opportunities. he is working day and night on his fitness and his game to take his competitive advantage even higher.

Rafa simpley refuses to do anything about it. he said he will go to Rio and then "we will see". does that sound like that Rafa is going to do anything about his fall?

 

he also said he is not going to change a thing. he said he is doing fine. he also added that he is going to keep doing what he is doing.

I don't know about you man but I am worried to death. I am afraid that there is no way in hell can I conclude that is coming back unless he can start producing huge blocks of work on clay.

 

today Rafa marvels at Djokovic's supreme fitness and yet chooses to do nothing about his own fitness.

you are going to have to outwork Djokovic otherwise he will keep running all over you.

 

 

[MikeOne]

claydeath, nonsense, really. Rafa's level of fitness and mental strength was the same in 2011 than it was in 2010. It's ridiculous to even argue that Rafael Nadal 'took his foot of the gas' and wasn't as fit or mentally strong in 2011. Please be serious when you argue, this comes across as a bit of a joke to be honest with you my friend.

fans will go to extraordinary lengths to explain why their favorite player isn't dominating. When Nadal started beating Roger, it was because Roger lacked stamina or was a mental midget. Everyone knows that Federer has been one of the fittest and mentally strongest players on the history of tennis. Rafael's game was just a nightmare for him.

Rafa had an amazing year in 2010 and come 2011, because Nole started dominating him, rafael all of sudden lost something in fitness and mental strength, he just stopped being Rafael Nadal. The absurdity of this is is almost surreal, even by your standards, in your futile attempt to explain Nadal's woes. Rafael was at his VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY PEAK in 2011, Djokovic just took his game to another level and once that happened, Nadal was in major trouble. You see, Nadal never had an advantage on Djokovic game wise, it was physical and mental. Remember how Djokovic was retiring from matches before 2011? How he retired vs Roddick in 09 AO? retired vs Nadal in 07 Wimbledon? How about that period where he averaged more double faults than aces and tried tinkering with his serve? He was a mess for years but after the 2010 davis cup win and working on his fitness, he fixed his mental and fitness issues. Once Nadal didn't have an advantage mentally or physically, it purely became game vs game and for the 1 millionth time, Novak's game is a nightmare for Rafa. Djokovic's return is HELL for Nadal's serve; Nole's backhand is HELL for Nadal's forehand; Novak's movement is HELL for Nadal's angles; Novak's ability to take ball early, is HELL for Nadal's baseline game; Novak's fitness is HELL for Nadal's chances of outlasting him; Novak's high strike zone is HELL for Nadal's topspin and lastly, Novak's mental strength is HELL for Nadal's chances of winning mental battle. Pretty much everything i can think of is bad for Nadal, Novak's strengths are unbelievably well matched against Nadal. I saw this early on, so did Toni Nadal...

In the end, we all have to accept that certain players give others nightmares on the court and it's futile to look for excuses that really hold no water. I'm a Djokovic fan but guess what, i admit Stan Wawrinka presents a difficult match-up, i sometimes wonder if Novak can beat Stan when Stan is at his best. I think Nadal and Federer have better chances vs Stan than Novak does, when Stan is at his best on a slow court. I also believe a fully fit, prime federer simply was at a disadvantage vs prime rafa; a fully fit, prime Rafa at a disadvantage vs prime Nole. The excuses i hear are weak, at best. Again, without Nole in 2011, Rafael would've had probably his best year ever, he lost to only one man in 7 straight finals, including 2 slam finals. No-one could handle Rafa in 2011, except prime Djokovic.

 

[ClayDeath]

Excellent post MikeOne.