2014 Miami Final: Nadal vs. Djokovic

[Moxie]

^ It is a little different, for that reason. (And I'm not clear what the reason is…if anyone knows.) But still, for the "box set," it counts.

 

[nehmeth]

So Nole needs Cincy, Rafa needs Paris and Roger needs Rome?

Doesn't Roger need Monte Carlo too??

That one is not mandatory so to me it's a bit different than the rest...

It's a 1000. It has a long and honored history. Personally I think it has greater prestige than that fiasco in Madrid played on clay-crete (that is sometimes blue), with the ugly trophy that looks like a torture tool.

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

^ I don't disagree with the Madrid situation.

 

[Moxie]

Note that the Live-Chat will be up for the final tomorrow, so do come and chat while we watch it together.

 

[TsarMatt]

Why does it have to be on at 6:00AM my time? I gotta get up and travel to uni. Man, I hate life.

 

[imjimmy]

The surface favors Djokovic and I feel that Nadal is not where he was in the 2013 North American hardcourt season. Most notably the serve, return of serve are not at the level they usually are when he is at his best on hardcourts.

I think Djokovic will get this one, but it will provide more motivation for Nadal to get back in the European summer season.

 

[nehmeth]

The surface favors Djokovic and I feel that Nadal is not where he was in the 2013 North American hardcourt season. Most notably the serve, return of serve are not at the level they usually are when he is at his best on hardcourts.

I think Djokovic will get this one, but it will provide more motivation for Nadal to get back in the European summer season.

It is always good to see you around imjimmy.

 

[imjimmy]

The surface favors Djokovic and I feel that Nadal is not where he was in the 2013 North American hardcourt season. Most notably the serve, return of serve are not at the level they usually are when he is at his best on hardcourts.

I think Djokovic will get this one, but it will provide more motivation for Nadal to get back in the European summer season.

It is always good to see you around imjimmy.

Thanks nehmeth. Good to see you guys too. I usually find it hard to get super excited about IW and Miami, because of the big European tournaments coming up on clay and grass. They should rearrange the tennis calender.

Hoping for a good match. Miami hasn't been too kind to Rafa and he's already lost thrice in the finals here maybe because of the humidity and surface not taking this spin well. Today's match is more important for Nadal than it is for Djokovic.

Have a nice Sunday. What are you doing up so early?

 

[Kieran]

I'm reading conflicting stuff regarding Rafa's serve. Some are saying it's off, and others it's on. What was it like before the Raonic match?

And bear in mind, after Raonic broke, he had no more breaks points after this.

Against the Raonic serve, the missile, Rafa had a good few opportunities to break in the first set, and broke 3 times after. So his return must be okay too, no?

I haven't see any tennis, because of the time diff, so I'm asking this, not because I want to contradict anyone, but because the things I'm reading contradict each other...

 

[brokenshoelace]

I'm reading conflicting stuff regarding Rafa's serve. Some are saying it's off, and others it's on. What was it like before the Raonic match?

And bear in mind, after Raonic broke, he had no more breaks points after this.

Against the Raonic serve, the missile, Rafa had a good few opportunities to break in the first set, and broke 3 times after. So his return must be okay too, no?

I haven't see any tennis, because of the time diff, so I'm asking this, not because I want to contradict anyone, but because the things I'm reading contradict each other...

Who said it's on? It is nowhere near on.

Trust my judgment on this, buddy. Now for all I know, Nadal my come out and serve like Goran against Novak, but from the matches he's played so far, he hasn't been serving particularly well. That's not to say that it's been bad, it's just been predictable and ineffective. The slider out wide isn't working (most of the time it's missing, unless he hits it with no angle, which defeats the purpose), the one up the ad court is virtually non-existent, and he's not getting any swing on his serve on either side. Just the usual "spin it in to the middle" kind of serving. The one notable exception is the body serve, which he's been hitting well and hard.

The problem is, he's playing Djokovic. So he needs a particularly ON serving day. If every Nadal service game is going to be a battle, the match is virtually over.

Now, the good news is, Rafa fully knows this, and I've seen him serve average in the past during a tournament, before stepping it up against Djokovic (the 2012 AO stands out, as well as their Monte Carlo meeting later in the year). So I am positive Nadal will attempt to do this, but just how well the serve clicks is the question. The surface is too slow for him to get a ton of cheap points anyway, but he at least needs very good placement and some pace.

PS: Raonic not getting any break points after the first set doesn't mean much. He doesn't return well and Nadal is a vastly superior baseliner, so Rafa could afford just making sure the first serve goes in and take it from there.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Today's match is more important for Nadal than it is for Djokovic.

I don't know about that. It's just as important for both, in that winning it would be great, but a loss is hardly season-damaging. Though I guess winning for Nadal might provide him with a bigger confidence boost since it's always an achievement to beat Novak on hards.

 

[Kieran]

I'm reading conflicting stuff regarding Rafa's serve. Some are saying it's off, and others it's on. What was it like before the Raonic match?

And bear in mind, after Raonic broke, he had no more breaks points after this.

Against the Raonic serve, the missile, Rafa had a good few opportunities to break in the first set, and broke 3 times after. So his return must be okay too, no?

I haven't see any tennis, because of the time diff, so I'm asking this, not because I want to contradict anyone, but because the things I'm reading contradict each other...

Who said it's on? It is nowhere near on.

Trust my judgment on this, buddy. Now for all I know, Nadal my come out and serve like Goran against Novak, but from the matches he's played so far, he hasn't been serving particularly well. That's not to say that it's been bad, it's just been predictable and ineffective. The slider out wide isn't working (most of the time it's missing, unless he hits it with no angle, which defeats the purpose), the one up the ad court is virtually non-existent, and he's not getting any swing on his serve on either side. Just the usual "spin it in to the middle" kind of serving. The one notable exception is the body serve, which he's been hitting well and hard.

The problem is, he's playing Djokovic. So he needs a particularly ON serving day. If every Nadal service game is going to be a battle, the match is virtually over.

Now, the good news is, Rafa fully knows this, and I've seen him serve average in the past during a tournament, before stepping it up against Djokovic (the 2012 AO stands out, as well as their Monte Carlo meeting later in the year). So I am positive Nadal will attempt to do this, but just how well the serve clicks is the question. The surface is too slow for him to get a ton of cheap points anyway, but he at least needs very good placement and some pace.

Nice post, Broken, thanks! There have been a few who have said it's on, including Hunting, who was at the Raonic match. Bodo too. I know, some people will scoff, but I never mind that, I think he's okay.

He's dropped serve only once the whole tourney. I know, he hasn't faced Nole. I agree with your last paragraph, though. He'll definitely try step it up. A victory here will give Nole bragging rights heading into the clay, a 3 in a row wins, and that's something that'll give Rafa time to reflect. I don't think he performs his best when he takes on that kind of reflection.

A win for Rafa resets his season and leaves him stronger heading onto the dirt than last year.

Vamos!

 

[brokenshoelace]

I'm reading conflicting stuff regarding Rafa's serve. Some are saying it's off, and others it's on. What was it like before the Raonic match?

And bear in mind, after Raonic broke, he had no more breaks points after this.

Against the Raonic serve, the missile, Rafa had a good few opportunities to break in the first set, and broke 3 times after. So his return must be okay too, no?

I haven't see any tennis, because of the time diff, so I'm asking this, not because I want to contradict anyone, but because the things I'm reading contradict each other...

Who said it's on? It is nowhere near on.

Trust my judgment on this, buddy. Now for all I know, Nadal my come out and serve like Goran against Novak, but from the matches he's played so far, he hasn't been serving particularly well. That's not to say that it's been bad, it's just been predictable and ineffective. The slider out wide isn't working (most of the time it's missing, unless he hits it with no angle, which defeats the purpose), the one up the ad court is virtually non-existent, and he's not getting any swing on his serve on either side. Just the usual "spin it in to the middle" kind of serving. The one notable exception is the body serve, which he's been hitting well and hard.

The problem is, he's playing Djokovic. So he needs a particularly ON serving day. If every Nadal service game is going to be a battle, the match is virtually over.

Now, the good news is, Rafa fully knows this, and I've seen him serve average in the past during a tournament, before stepping it up against Djokovic (the 2012 AO stands out, as well as their Monte Carlo meeting later in the year). So I am positive Nadal will attempt to do this, but just how well the serve clicks is the question. The surface is too slow for him to get a ton of cheap points anyway, but he at least needs very good placement and some pace.

Nice post, Broken, thanks! There have been a few who have said it's on, including Hunting, who was at the Raonic match. Bodo too. I know, some people will scoff, but I never mind that, I think he's okay.

He's dropped serve only once the whole tourney. I know, he hasn't faced Nole. I agree with your last paragraph, though. He'll definitely try step it up. A victory here will give Nole bragging rights heading into the clay, a 3 in a row wins, and that's something that'll give Rafa time to reflect. I don't think he performs his best when he takes on that kind of reflection.

A win for Rafa resets his season and leaves him stronger heading onto the dirt than last year.

Vamos!

I read Hunting's post and I'll take his word for it since he was there, but I don't think he said it's on. Just that it was effective, which it was...against Raonic. That very same serving would get him killed against Novak. I guess that's a better way to explain my view: His serving is good enough to get him by anyone else, but not nearly good enough to beat Djokovic.

 

[Kieran]

Well, if he's serving good enough to take the man in front of him, I'll be happy...

 

[brokenshoelace]

Well, if he's serving good enough to take the man in front of him, I'll be happy...

That would require a significant step up tonight.

 

[nehmeth]

Have a nice Sunday. What are you doing up so early?

uzzled

.... bathroom run

 

[imjimmy]

Today's match is more important for Nadal than it is for Djokovic.

I don't know about that. It's just as important for both, in that winning it would be great, but a loss is hardly season-damaging. Though I guess winning for Nadal might provide him with a bigger confidence boost since it's always an achievement to beat Novak on hards.

I agree. It's just that Rafa has lost the last one against Novak and also hasn't looked super comfortable for most of this year. Either way, even a loss today, would provide Nadal a bit of a wake up call and maybe allow him to come storming back on clay. A win, of course, is always welcome.

I agree with the observations on the serve. From where I see on the TV, I can recall Nadal serving better last year and even on hardcourts/grass in previous years. Right now, the general patterns seems to be the slider to the backhand without too much variation, and on a slower than usual pace. It's not got him many cheap points. His ground game (especially backhand) has done the damage. That said, I am sure Rafa knows he needs to step up the serve against Novak, both the mphs and the placement.

With the return of serve too, hopefully he doesn't stand that far back while receiving the second serve. In that case, If he doesn't get a good hold on the ball and doesn't time it well (which has happened this year), the return sits up in mid court ready to be walloped. I feel that this surface in particular doesn't do Nadal's game any favors. No coincidence that he's lost in the finals thrice and hasn't won here.

 

[nehmeth]

Don't expect to see Rafa returning from that far back against Novak. He could afford to do it against the slow moving Canadian. Receiving serve you will see him in further, and as much as he is able, planted on or near the baseline during the point.

 

[huntingyou]

I thought Nadal's serve was good against Milos, He managed to hit the body and out-wide on the deuce court with good accuracy and decent pace. The slider was weak, no much angle but overall he managed to accomplish what was his main goal and it was to start the rally inside the court with his forehand. The second serve was solid and DEEP, I can see why Nadal has been leading most of his career on second serve win percentage; very heavy with "odd" movement. Milos was off balance most of the time and despite taking big cuts inside the baseline which is the right strategy, he couldn't take control of the rally.

BUT against Novak..........he needs to step it up a level higher. Nadal was serving over 70% vs Milos; obviously sacrificing pace and angle for consistency and predictability. Against Novak that won't cut it. So I expect Rafa to go for the body serve and out-wide on the deuce court and hopefully improve his slider and down the T on the AD court.

The good sign for Rafa it's the backhand, he is hitting it as well he can to be honest, Milos was pummeling with a barrage of hard forehands and he passed with flying colors. I think that's the key for rafa when he beats Novak post 2011.........ability to do damage and change directions with his backhands. Of course forehand DTL it's key and Rafa has been lethal with that one in this tournament.

 

[huntingyou]

Forgot to say that if Novak find "his" zone returning..........then there is really no much Rafa can do; when Novak ROS land in the lines of the baseline you are at his mercy and he can do it so often when returning great that it dismantle anybody's game and mental disposition.

interesting enough, these two split their baseline rallies 50/50 for the most part......."important" points is an understatement in this rivalry and Novak has in possession the proverbial "ACE" in the pocket with his ROS