2014 Masters Series Rome Final: Djokovic v. Nadal

[Kieran]

And no, I don't watch matches after they've been played. Well, rarely I do...

How many times did you watch the 2008 Wimbledon Final? :snigger

Or, to put it another way, how many copies have you worn out?

And how many did you send as Christmas presents?

Only a skim through couple. It becomes obvious that Rafa should master Roger after a while...

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

I can easily be persuaded to switch from Nole in three to Rafa in three. Honestly, I have no read on this one whatsoever. Rafa sub par, Nole coming from injury...

 

[Kieran]

That was heartbreaking for Rafa. Rafa won the next 3 after that. If that does not effect you ( and I believe it doesn't) what does?

Actually, that Oz match is the one Rafa wasn't so deeply hurt by. The first five in the losing streak, yes. Then he realised something in the US Open. Then he practised it in Oz and didn't feel so desolate because he'd left everything out there. Then he turned tables in MC.

And since then, I haven't felt that Nole has been in his head, in the slightest, and I don't expect him to be. They'll have surface-specific victories, and they'll battle hard on their least favoured surfaces, but I doubt Rafa has the heebie-jeebies any more. I expect he's not so fatalistic about it all now and understands that Nole has his big days, and that he has his own big days, too...

 

[the AntiPusher]

I am picking rafa in 2 sets

A true believer, Great, welcome to the party, Pal.

 

[anticaria]

a few stats:

rafa leads nole 13:3 on clay and 3:1 at the italian open.. they have also met in the rome final 3 times with rafa leading those meetings 2:1..

amazingly, all of their italian open meetings have been decided in straight sets and only once has a tiebreak been needed ('09 final, won by rafa, incidentally).. even more amazing is the fact that the 2nd and deciding sets have all been fairly routine, never exceeding 10 games (6-4)..

here's hoping this 5th rome meeting goes the distance in a 3-set thriller for a change..

vamos!

 

[anticaria]

I guess I am the lone wolf who Is picking Rafa, I just like what I daw against Murray. Murray's return of service is amongst the best and Rafa was able to find a way to become victorious. Unlike Miami, he is ready for djoker dtl back hand . He knows he has got to make djoker try to hit through him with his fh, it's the wing that produces more ufes

I was gonna pick rafa in 2 but then I paused cause he so often has those nerveracking late/slow starts against nole and that might cost him the opening set..

I'm hoping for rafa in 2 but will be expecting it to go 3.. <gulp>

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

That was heartbreaking for Rafa. Rafa won the next 3 after that. If that does not effect you ( and I believe it doesn't) what does?

Actually, that Oz match is the one Rafa wasn't so deeply hurt by. The first five in the losing streak, yes. Then he realised something in the US Open. Then he practised it in Oz and didn't feel so desolate because he'd left everything out there. Then he turned tables in MC.

And since then, I haven't felt that Nole has been in his head, in the slightest, and I don't expect him to be. They'll have surface-specific victories, and they'll battle hard on their least favoured surfaces, but I doubt Rafa has the heebie-jeebies any more. I expect he's not so fatalistic about it all now and understands that Nole has his big days, and that he has his own big days, too...

Losing such a long slam final with such a narrow margin should hurt Kieran. I cannot know how deep, but it has to hurt some.

Everything else you wrote is exactly what I said. Nobody is in anybody's head anymore. They know each other too well .

 

[Kieran]

It hurt, of course, but I think that - according to Rafa - he felt okay about himself because he left it all out there. It's a healthy attitude. And he ripped through Nole the next few times they played, so I believe him. He was over the hangover...

 

[Murat Baslamisli]

Exactly...hurt or not, he was over it and pummeled Nole for a while after that. That's my original post on the matter. He had every reason to carry that loss over. He did not.

These guys are strong mentally. That's why I believe whatever happens tomorrow, nobody is going to remember it during the heat of the battle , when it is 2-2 in the sets and 4-4 in the games during the next RG final. Water under the bridge.

 

[golds girl]

Does anyone know whether this match will be available on old fashioned TV in ESPN or
ESPN2?

Don't think anyone answered this for you GSM, but the answer is no. Only Tennis Channel if you're a subscriber.

 

[Moxie]

It hurt, of course, but I think that - according to Rafa - he felt okay about himself because he left it all out there. It's a healthy attitude. And he ripped through Nole the next few times they played, so I believe him. He was over the hangover...

Rafa did say that, while his team was disappointed at that loss, Rafa felt like he was putting into effect the changes that he was making to counter Novak, and felt ok about it.

@Murat: I agree with what you've said before…that the paradigm favors neither one or the other, and is more match-to-match, and maybe more surface based. However the fortunes fall tomorrow, I don't think it predicts RG.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Does anyone know whether this match will be available on old fashioned TV in ESPN or
ESPN2?

Don't think anyone answered this for you GSM, but the answer is no. Only Tennis Channel if you're a subscriber.

Thanks GG. I wish they bring tennis channel under standard cable. When Golf channel is
part of basic stuff, I don't see why tennis channel should not be.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Factoid: If Rafa wins tomorrow, it will be his 64th title. I can list half of them (32)
without even looking up.

Rolland Garros ------ 8
Monte Carlo ------ 8
Rome ------ 8
Barcelona ------ 8

 

[the AntiPusher]

Factoid: If Rafa wins tomorrow, it will be his 64th title. I can list half of them (32)
without even looking up.

Rolland Garros ------ 8
Monte Carlo ------ 8
Rome ------ 8
Barcelona ------ 8

The number 8 is a great number but these days number 14 is what this Rafa's fan desires

 

[Moxie]

Factoid: If Rafa wins tomorrow, it will be his 64th title. I can list half of them (32)
without even looking up.

Roland Garros ------ 8
Monte Carlo ------ 8
Rome ------ 8
Barcelona ------ 8

Impressive, as you imply. Whether or not he wins to tomorrow that means he has 32 titles on hard courts and grass. Also impressive.

 

[imjimmy]

I really haven't seen Nadal in full flow in 2014 except for patches. This year in general, he's not played as well as he did during the north American Hard court season in 2013. Plus I've always felt that his clay court game has declined faster than it has on other surfaces - hence no surprise with the clay Master results this year. No on can dominate forever. Not even Nadal.

I think he's reached a stage in his career where he needs to rest and recoup mentally. Which is why his results have been excellent after a long break when he's fresh and intense. To expect him to play a full year and win as much as he used to is a little unreasonable.

Tomorrow's match: Nadal's second serve will be very vulnerable. It's very attackable on clay. Djokovic will take full advantage as even Murray and Nishikori were doing. Furthermore if Rafa doesn't return aggressively or overspins his forehand (hitting it short), he'll be in trouble. He needs to use the off-forehand consistently and stand in to return and swing a little more than usual.

Overall: Djokovic in 2 sets is what I'm thinking - based on the form of both players. RG will be interesting this year. Nadal will be harder to beat in 5 sets.

 

[masterclass]

Hey Moxie, hopefully you were joking, I don't know , but that's not correct.

He's won many more titles at lesser clay events. He has a total of 44 titles on clay out of a total of 63 so far and is trying for his 45th clay title today.

Rafael Nadal Title stats

Clay: 44 (45th pending) - 70% of all titles won on clay

Hard: 15 + 1 Olympics = 16 - 25% of all titles won on hard

Grass: 3 - 5% of all titles won on grass
----------
Total: 63 (64th pending)

Outdoors: 61 (62 pending)
Indoors: 2 (1 clay + 1 hard)

Major Titles
Clay: 8 of 9 - 89% title winning pct. in Clay Majors , 62% of all major titles won
Grass: 2 of 9 - 22% title winning pct. in Grass Majors, 15% of all major titles won
Hard: 3 of 19 - 16% title winning pct. in Hard Majors, 23% of all major titles won
---------------------------------------------------
Total: 13 of 37 - 35% title winning pct in all majors.

Rafa only needs 3 more titles on clay to surpass Vilas who had 46 on clay.

Match Stats

Clay: 307 - 23 - 93% winning pct. on Clay
Hard: 329 - 92 - 79% winning pct. on Hard
Grass: 50 - 13 - 78% winning pct. on Grass
Carpet: 2 - 6 - 25% winning pct. on Carpet
-------------------------------------------------
Total: 688 -134 - 84% total winning pct. on all surfaces

Rafa is certainly the Clay King Warrior of the last decade and is among the greats on clay of all time, as well having evolved into being among the greats of all time period.

Respectfully,
masterclass

 

[tented]

Does anyone know whether this match will be available on old fashioned TV in ESPN or
ESPN2?

Don't think anyone answered this for you GSM, but the answer is no. Only Tennis Channel if you're a subscriber.

Thanks GG. I wish they bring tennis channel under standard cable. When Golf channel is
part of basic stuff, I don't see why tennis channel should not be.

Which is exactly why the Tennis Channel has taken cable companies to federal court.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Factoid: If Rafa wins tomorrow, it will be his 64th title. I can list half of them (32)
without even looking up.

Roland Garros ------ 8
Monte Carlo ------ 8
Rome ------ 8
Barcelona ------ 8

Impressive, as you imply. Whether or not he wins to tomorrow that means he has 32 titles on hard courts and grass. Also impressive.

Wrong. He does not have that many titles from clay and grass. He has many other clay
titles coming from various sundry tourneys not listed above. I just said I can list these
32 titles without having to look up anywhere, that's all. Those are not his only clay titles.

 

[masterclass]

I really haven't seen Nadal in full flow in 2014 except for patches. This year in general, he's not played as well as he did during the north American Hard court season in 2013. Plus I've always felt that his clay court game has declined faster than it has on other surfaces - hence no surprise with the clay Master results this year. No on can dominate forever. Not even Nadal.

I think he's reached a stage in his career where he needs to rest and recoup mentally. Which is why his results have been excellent after a long break when he's fresh and intense. To expect him to play a full year and win as much as he used to is a little unreasonable.

Tomorrow's match: Nadal's second serve will be very vulnerable. It's very attackable on clay. Djokovic will take full advantage as even Murray and Nishikori were doing. Furthermore if Rafa doesn't return aggressively or overspins his forehand (hitting it short), he'll be in trouble. He needs to use the off-forehand consistently and stand in to return and swing a little more than usual.

Overall: Djokovic in 2 sets is what I'm thinking - based on the form of both players. RG will be interesting this year. Nadal will be harder to beat in 5 sets.

I think this is an accurate synopsis. Not sure about the conclusion.

I think Novak has clearly had the more difficult draw, even though Rafa has struggled more until yesterday against a hopeless Dimitrov - not sure where his brain was, and I won't back him at coed tournaments.

If Rafa plays his best tennis on clay on the day, he is always the likely winner against any opponent. But he hasn't been near that level for a long while now. Novak's wrist may still be bothering him. After the Ferrer struggle, followed by the Raonic power, one would think that it might have had some affect on the wrist. How much? Only he and his team know. Rafa's easier match yesterday may benefit him physically.

I have to say I'm undecided about this match.
If we see a hesitant and uncertain Rafa, playing from downtown Rome, this might go quickly in Nole's favor. If Rafa comes out firing and Djokovic is not up to snuff, struggling for balance, it could go quickly in Rafa's favor. The wind is scheduled to be at its strongest around match time, and I think that would favor Rafa if it is strong enough. He generally has better footwork than Djokovic.

It would be nice to see an even and well performed match, and that's what I'll hope for, but I have a feeling it won't be that way.

Respectfully,
masterclass