Is Rafa going to win RG 2020?

[don_fabio]

I would like to hear some opinions.

Here are some facts which might make Nadal a little bit less of a favourite than he usually is.

1. there was much less clay court tennis played this year, Rafa played only 3 matches. Last year it took him quite a while until he was playing on level where he is untouchable and he found that level in Rome after whole clay season. Before Rome he was defeated a few times.

2. Rafa likes the audience and he feeds with crowd support and this year it is going to be different with much less fans in attendance

3. weather conditions might be a big fact, if conditions are damp and slow Rafa is vulnerable (match against Diego in Rome as latest example). there is also a roof which might benefit other players in case of let's say high wind (Novak is poor when it comes to overcoming windy conditions). It is becoming colder in Paris as we approach October.

4. There are 2 guys that could beat him, Novak and Thiem. It all depends where Thiem lands but if he falls in Rafa half, Rafa will most likely have to face Thiem and then Novak. Rafa is not 25 anymore and some fatigue might be issue coming to the final if SF will be a tough match.

5. Pressure of equaling Roger's slam record. This was visible last year in USO final where Rafa was nervous. It could happen again.


Now all that is said above might mean absolutely nothing and the king of clay wins RG again and we all hail to him once more, but it does spread some suspicions and debates whether this is going to be another year where Rafa wins RG.

In my personal opinion I do have some doubts and if had to bet on it I would say Rafa doesn't win RG this year.

 

[Sundaymorningguy]

I will say Rafa is the favorite, but Novak might be ruthless given he missed the opportunity in NY to gain hardware. I didn’t really care for Novak’s form in Rome, but he came through when it mattered. Thiem is a big question mark. Will he perform well or will he fall early. I am thinking he can at least make the Q. Zverev, what will we see from him? It’s unfortunate for Thiem that he will be seeded 3rd as he will definitely have to earn it going through both Djokovic and Nadal, but he may be up for the task this time.

 

[Bonaca]

I would like to hear some opinions.

Here are some facts which might make Nadal a little bit less of a favourite than he usually is.

1. there was much less clay court tennis played this year, Rafa played only 3 matches. Last year it took him quite a while until he was playing on level where he is untouchable and he found that level in Rome after whole clay season. Before Rome he was defeated a few times.

2. Rafa likes the audience and he feeds with crowd support and this year it is going to be different with much less fans in attendance

3. weather conditions might be a big fact, if conditions are damp and slow Rafa is vulnerable (match against Diego in Rome as latest example). there is also a roof which might benefit other players in case of let's say high wind (Novak is poor when it comes to overcoming windy conditions). It is becoming colder in Paris as we approach October.

4. There are 2 guys that could beat him, Novak and Thiem. It all depends where Thiem lands but if he falls in Rafa half, Rafa will most likely have to face Thiem and then Novak. Rafa is not 25 anymore and some fatigue might be issue coming to the final if SF will be a tough match.

5. Pressure of equaling Roger's slam record. This was visible last year in USO final where Rafa was nervous. It could happen again.


Now all that is said above might mean absolutely nothing and the king of clay wins RG again and we all hail to him once more, but it does spread some suspicions and debates whether this is going to be another year where Rafa wins RG.

In my personal opinion I do have some doubts and if had to bet on it I would say Rafa doesn't win RG this year.

He is co-favorite with Novak.

1) That is maybe the strongest reason he isn’t winning this time.
He is a worker and haven’t worked much this year. Without many matches and inhuman training and workout, he is average.
2) He is never untouchable.
3) Weather and crowd support will work against him.
4) Missy didn’t proof anything in Paris against Bob so far.

 

[El Dude]

I might give him a hair over Novak, but only a hair. Novak is going to be very determined and hard to beat, but Rafa has the home field advantage ("This is my house!"). Thiem is the first darkhorse, and Medvedev a distant second darkhorse.

But my gut response is that Novak is going to win it.

 

[Moxie]

I'm glad someone got around to this thread, because it would be a break with tradition if we didn't have a "will Rafa win RG this year/who can beat Rafa at RG this year" thread. It has been the hardest ask in men's tennis for many years now...taking out Rafa in B05 on clay. I think the weather and the new balls (which are heavier, I think?) won't help him. I also think that lack of match play combined with age could catch him. However, he's always fit, and he can certainly play himself into form.

I agree with @El Dude that Rafa is only slightly favored over Novak, because I would add Novak's form in Rome, though he did win it. Thiem is surely the 3rd pick, but I disagree that Medvedev is 4th, however distantly you put him. He has no clay chops...it would be an amazing improvement in surface form if he were to even make the QFs. It'd put Zverev higher. He has a MS title on clay, and he finally made a Major final this year. And he's got Ferrer in his corner now, so that could help. I'd even put Tsitsipas over him, but I know I just keep hoping he'll come good.

Draws come out tomorrow and that will be interesting, because there are more speed bumps out there, IMO, than we've seen in a long time.

 

[El Dude]

I'm glad someone got around to this thread, because it would be a break with tradition if we didn't have a "will Rafa win RG this year/who can beat Rafa at RG this year" thread. It has been the hardest ask in men's tennis for many years now...taking out Rafa in B05 on clay. I think the weather and the new balls (which are heavier, I think?) won't help him. I also think that lack of match play combined with age could catch him. However, he's always fit, and he can certainly play himself into form.

I agree with @El Dude that Rafa is only slightly favored over Novak, because I would add Novak's form in Rome, though he did win it. Thiem is surely the 3rd pick, but I disagree that Medvedev is 4th, however distantly you put him. He has no clay chops...it would be an amazing improvement in surface form if he were to even make the QFs. It'd put Zverev higher. He has a MS title on clay, and he finally made a Major final this year. And he's got Ferrer in his corner now, so that could help. I'd even put Tsitsipas over him, but I know I just keep hoping he'll come good.

Draws come out tomorrow and that will be interesting, because there are more speed bumps out there, IMO, than we've seen in a long time.

OK, fair enough. Maybe something like this:

Favorites: Rafa, Novak
Darkhorse: Thiem
Pretenders: Zverev, Tsitsipas, maybe Medvedev

 

[Moxie]

OK, fair enough. Maybe something like this:

Favorites: Rafa, Novak
Darkhorse: Thiem
Pretenders: Zverev, Tsitsipas, maybe Medvedev

I won't get into the arguments about what makes a "dark horse," which we used to debate endlessly.

Not disagreeing with any of the above, I'm just going to mention the speed bumps that could be out there:

Shapovalov, Sinner, Garin, Koepfer (who has come out of nowhere,) Moutin, Garin...I'm sure I've forgotten someone. Any additions?

 

[Jelenafan]

OK, fair enough. Maybe something like this:

Favorites: Rafa, Novak
Darkhorse: Thiem
Pretenders: Zverev, Tsitsipas, maybe Medvedev

C’mmom folks Theim is surely more than a “dark horse”.

At the least he’s the co favorite along with Rafa and Novak. If he’s mentally over the hump by winning the USO, where Dominic lands on the draw could be crucial to the two other champs chances.

 

[Nadalfan2013]

Is Rafa going to win RG 2020?

Yes

 

[Moxie]

C’mmom folks Theim is surely more than a “dark horse”.

At the least he’s the co favorite along with Rafa and Novak. If he’s mentally over the hump by winning the USO, where Dominic lands on the draw could be crucial to the two other champs chances.

Obviously he's more than a "dark horse." And we'll all be looking to see where he lands in the draw. He's more of a danger for Novak that Rafa, in the SFs, but only just.

 

[Jelenafan]

Obviously he's more than a "dark horse." And we'll all be looking to see where he lands in the draw. He's more of a danger for Novak that Rafa, in the SFs, but only just.

Yes, considering Dominic has beaten Novak the last 4 times they’ve played on outdoor clay. I’m not worried about Theim’s lack of clay matches, and maybe it’s because he won his first Major on the 4th try, but it could be he’s loose and relaxed just enough in Paris because he finally got the monkey off his back.

He’s made the finals of 3 out of the last 5 Majors so my reasoning is not being that new to the rodeo Theim won’t have a huge letdown from winning at Queens.

 

[Moxie]

The real dark horse is Diego Schwartzman, though he's more in the category of "spoiler." Will be interesting to see where he lands in the draw. We used to have an internal game on the forum. I can't remember exactly, but we'd pick a winner, a finalist, four quarter finalists, a spoiler and a dark horse, and I think the dark horse couldn't be in the top 15, or something like that. It's going to take a lot for one of the top 3 options not to win it, but picking the spoilers could be an interesting question.

 

[don_fabio]

I’m not worried about Theim’s lack of clay matches, and maybe it’s because he won his first Major on the 4th try, but it could be he’s loose and relaxed just enough in Paris because he finally got the monkey off his back.

I tought the same, he has no reason to be tense, he won a slam and can play freely and will be dangerous. He is a co favourite with Novak and Rafa. It will be very interesting where he lands in the draw.

 

[Andy22]

yes nadal wins RG this season but I would have thiem over djokovic he,s been way better in the last few years on clay.

 

[Sundaymorningguy]

I think Djokovic is the interesting question mark here. I think he will be quite hungry to get a slam here after what happened in NY.

Thiem I expect a good run at least to the QF. I think depending on who lands where in the draw. Thiem is far more comfortable on clay, so it shouldn’t be that rough of a transition.

The ideal for Thiem would be to land on the Rafa side of the draw. If both he and Rafa make it that far, I think Thiem would play Rafa more relaxed in a SF versus a F at RG.

I’m interested to see where Zverev lands that is a potential landmine right there along with both Denis and Diego.

 

[don_fabio]

I’m interested to see where Zverev lands that is a potential landmine right there along with both Denis and Diego.

Not sure about Zverev, it might take him some time to recover from that USO final loss. I think he might have a shorter run on a slam this time if he gets to Diego or some other dangerous clay courter.

I am hoping for Rafa Novak final, that could be an epic match, but Thiem is there to spoil it.

 

[don_fabio]

RG draw is today 18:00 Paris time

 

[britbox]

I think Djokovic wins it. He'll be energized, focused and carrying a chip on his shoulder after the USO disqualification.

 

[Bonaca]

Haha yes! Missy Austria is in Bob s half!!!
Also Ruud, Diego and Fake Swiss!

Lets go, I can’t wait.

 

[Jelenafan]

Haha yes! Missy Austria is in Bob s half!!!
Also Ruud, Diego and Fake Swiss!

Lets go, I can’t wait.

Are you referring to Stan Wawrinka by that name? Now for obvious reasons if so I know you're not know referring to the fact that he resides in Monte Carlo for tax reasons. Stan was born in Switzerland, as was his mother and he literally grew up in a Swiss farm run by his parents. Yes his father emigrated previously from Germany before Stan was born. Just curious because I want to give you the benefit of the doubt, but you sound like a race/nationality obsessed individual.

For the record, Pete Sampras parents were immigrants, and Andre Agassi's father was also, would that make them "fake Americans?" Federer's mother is originally from South AFrica so is Federer a "Fake Swiss"? I genuinely don't understand why you feel the need to insults tennis players because of their parents backgrounds. Smacks of Xenophobia.