Your Best Scenario For Rafa In 2016

[Correspondent Kiu]

2 Slams and 2-3 masters!

That's the best case, FO and one of the hard courts slams plus 2-3 masters.

 

[ClayDeath]

I think this is the ultimate bottom line folks: clay is the way out for him.

 

he has to show significant progress on the red clay next year and get a win over djokovic going into paris.

it is now or never type of thing. if next year is a repeat of this year than it is the end.

monte carlo, Barcelona, rome: he needs 2 of these 3 or all 3 and he needs to score a win over djokovic.

and the only way that is going to happen is if he shows up significantly physically stronger and fit next year. he needs his fitness and his physicality for his particular brand of tennis.

 

[Moxie]

He’ll likely still be second favourite going into Roland Garros even if his form doesn’t improve, so #15 at Roland Garros isn’t too far out of reach. I think he’ll win one of the big clay masters and some smaller clay events. If he’s got to go through Djokovic at RG, (as it stands right now with little or no change), he won’t come out the other side.

 This is where I disagree with you, specifically as to RG.  And what would change, if Nadal were to win one of the clay MS, and the odd small one, as you say.  In that case, the dynamic for RG changes.  In 7 tries, Djokovic was only able to beat Rafa at RG this past year when Nadal was complete crap.  Everyone saw that one coming.  If Nadal can reorganize his game, and has a decent, (by his standards,) clay season, I think that could be a difficulty for Djokovic...or anyone, when they meet at the French Open.  Nadal does very well in the best of 5 format, especially on clay, but not exclusively.  Whereas Djokovic seems to do best in 2 of 3, overall, and especially in their rivalry.  Another point I would make is that Djokovic has a lot of negative baggage at the FO.  That is in part why he lost to Wawrinka in the final this year.  If a resurgent Nadal faces Djokovic in either the SF or Fs at RG this year , I think there is a more than decent chance that Nadal takes him down, again.  Rafa has won the FO more than once not looking his best.  And Novak has lost it at least once looking like the man to beat.  If Rafa has a decent clay season, no one can count him out at the FO.

 

[ClayDeath]

rafa has one card left to play: it is clay and he has to do it in 2016.

it is clay or it is nothing.

he and his team need to bring in a fitness expert and get to work. and then get on those practice courts and stay on them.

 

will he play that card?

 

[Moxie]

will he play that card?

Yes.

 

[ClayDeath]

Clay Death wrote:
will he play that card?

Yes.

lets hope so for his sake and for the sake of our sport.

The sport needs him.

and for our sake for we are forever his fans.

that being said, I am sticking to my position which is the same as the Pete Sampras position: he is playing like he is retiring.

basel was rinky dink event and means pretty much nothing. He fought a little bit. It was just one event.He also almost lost to Rosol and should have. Rosol choked after being just 2 points from victory.

until I see some sort of change in the following factors he is on a retirement circuit:

Better fitness
better physical strength and physicality
sharper, more consistent ground game
better serve
better return
better mindset. Enough bullshit already like "it doesn't matter if I win or lose. I am enjoying being on court"

he said he was unhappy after his match with Wawrinka. so that does not sound like he enjoyed getting beat by a guy he beat 13 times in a row on all surfaces without ever losing a single set.

more on this later. I am out on the beach.

 

[ClayDeath]

Rafa really needs to set some very concrete goals for 2016 assuming he wants to declare war on clay and go after RG. assuming he wants to get back in the big game hunt again.

1. achieve #2 rank going into RG
2. go after the RG crown. he has never lost a final there. get in the final and then fight to death for the crown.

he has the natural advantage on clay. he has to be able to exploit that again.

 

 

 

[Mastoor]

My hunch is that it will be similar to 2011. Rafa superior to everyone else but No1e.

On the other hand Fed, Murray and Wawrinka are also in some very good form that they will keep next year. I also hear Delpo is coming back. We may have very interesting season next year.

 

 

 

[brokenshoelace]

Nadal is at worst the second favorite at RG. I don't see how there's any compelling argument otherwise. And if he's not, then who is? Wawrinka? That's a reach. Someone else? Can you honestly name anyone with a straight face?

 

[ClayDeath]

Rafa wont be able to get past the quarters unless he can arrive there with the #2 rank.

he simply has to improve. he has some time now. it is time to go and try to right the ship.

translation: he has to show the world something at monte carlo, barcelona, and rome.

quarterfinals at the Australian open is a possibility but no further. not enough time left now to prepare well for this slam.

he even said so but I have my own eyes. he said very specifically that he may not be prepared for the Australian Open.

some people are just not getting this. he brought his supreme fitness and his immense physicality to his battles. he could outhustle and outwill them. his game is very heavily dependent on supreme fitness and physical strength.

it is going to take a few months to get some of that back. he can do it. he is now in a race against the clock because of his endless bouts with injuries. so the time is now and he has to get with the program.

Federer and Djokovic offer plenty of motivation. it is time to take their lead and go work.

 

[Moxie]

Nadal is at worst the second favorite at RG. I don’t see how there’s any compelling argument otherwise. And if he’s not, then who is? Wawrinka? That’s a reach. Someone else? Can you honestly name anyone with a straight face?

As always, you're as bracing as a cold G&T, Broken.  And I agree.

 

[Denis]

My best scenario for Rafa is him losing to Djokovic at the French in the final. That would be nice.

 

[ClayDeath]

Rafa is not going to lose to Djokovic in the final at RG.

 

he just has to make sure that he is there to face djokovic.

 

that will call for a #2 rank going into RG. and that is the big question. can he achieve the #2 rank going into RG?

 

he has to make hay in monte carlo, Barcelona, and Rome and get at least one win over Djokovic.

it is up to Rafa but the mountain he has to climb is very steep. there is an immense amount of hard work involved.

 

more on this later.

 

[Moxie]

I don't think Rafa has to get to #2 before RG, but he has to be 3 or 4.  Either a SF or F v. Djokovic would be fine, if he has a decent clay season.  From there, a resurgent Nadal has a solid chance against Novak.  Rafa is the man who has owned that court, and Nole is the one with the pressure, and the negative mental baggage.  It's part of what cost him the title this year.  Not to take anything away from Wawrinka, who managed to peak at just the right moment, like Cilic.  But Novak took his foot off, and started protecting the win, expecting Stan to go away.  Djokovic knows he needs the French Open for his legacy, and every opportunity that goes by, it becomes a bigger albatross.  For that reason, alone, an in-form Nadal would have an advantage.

 

[Denis]

Rafa is not going to lose to Djokovic in the final at RG. he just has to make sure that he is there to face djokovic. that will call for a #2 rank going into RG. and that is the big question. can he achieve the #2 rank going into RG? he has to make hay in monte carlo, Barcelona, and Rome and get at least one win over Djokovic. it is up to Rafa but the mountain he has to climb is very steep. there is an immense amount of hard work involved. more on this later.

You might have missed this years qf at Roland Garros then.

Or are you one of those denialists that think that if Rafa makes the final his confidence will be so high he will not only beat anyyone he faces, he will also be able to walk on water.

 

[brokenshoelace]

Problem with making statements like "Nadal wouldn't lose to X in the final of RG" is this: Nadal can make the final of RG without playing well. In other words, simply reaching the final is not necessarily a telling sign of how well Nadal is playing. His C+ level could still see him make the final at RG (would have happened this year if Novak was on the other side of the draw). Nadal's C+ game would stand no chance against Djokovic, clay or elsewhere.  Now, if you were to tell me Nadal is playing close to his best, then yes, he'd be a firm favorite over Novak at RG because fact is, great as Novak has been, he has a total of zero RG titles (and at no point did he look stellar from start to finish at that particular tourney). Now I do expect that to change, but I don't think one victory over Nadal in twelve billion tries at RG makes him a favorite over an in form Nadal in the final. That said, all of this is moot as of now because  "in form Nadal" is something we haven't seen in a long time and it's kind of silly to make statements about how X player would have no chance against Y in a tournament that takes place 7 months from now.

 

[ClayDeath]

Clay Death wrote:
Rafa is not going to lose to Djokovic in the final at RG. he just has to make sure that he is there to face djokovic. that will call for a #2 rank going into RG. and that is the big question. can he achieve the #2 rank going into RG? he has to make hay in monte carlo, Barcelona, and Rome and get at least one win over Djokovic. it is up to Rafa but the mountain he has to climb is very steep. there is an immense amount of hard work involved. more on this later.

You might have missed this years qf at Roland Garros then. Or are you one of those denialists that think that if Rafa makes the final his confidence will be so high he will not only beat anyyone he faces, he will also be able to walk on water.

simple objective probability old sport: if he is 9-0 in the finals then I have to bet on him.

there is zero spin in what I have to say. I call the reality on the ground exactly  as I see it.

 

[ClayDeath]

the problem is one of getting to the finals of RG again for Rafa. I just cant see that happening right now.

 

[brokenshoelace]

the problem is one of getting to the finals of RG again for Rafa. I just cant see that happening right now.

I can see it happening quite easily. Only one player would be favored over him and if that player is on the other side of the draw, Nadal will be a firm favorite to make it to the finals.

 

[isabelle]

He should hire Edberg to learn how to volley correctly