Young Guns Watch: 2017

[El Dude]

Well again, I suspect it is a bit of both--Weak Generation Theory and Peak Shift Theory (I like it)--that combine to give the illusion that players are peaking longer and later than previously I think they ARE, but just not as much if you ignore WGT and look only at PST.

But another aspect of this that I find interesting is the phenomena of "third tier" players maintaining prime form longer. Of Roger's generation, only he and Ferrer are among the ten or dozen best and still playing at a high level, and obviously Ferrer is fading. Youzhny is borderline top ten and has declined. Robredo is playing a bit still, I think, but everyone else has retired. The players of that group that are in the top 100 are, by and large, third and fourth tier players. So why would these guys hold up better?

 

[mrzz]

^Well, maybe generation Federer is a bit too old to enter the analysis. Federer himself is an outlier by definition and needs to be seen separately. But taking the players you listed on your blog, without cheking I would think that from 1981 up they are indeed holding up well.

 

[El Dude]

Some interesting NextGen news...Denis Shapovalov defeated fellow Canadian Felix Auger Aliassime in the SF of Drummondville Challenger. FAA had just defeated Alex De Minaur in the previous round. He is also coming off a Futures win (Sherbrooke) and is now ranked #374 in the live rankings...seems like he's starting to move up a bit. A top 200 finish for the 16-year old this year would be terrific.

Shapovalov has stalled a bit, but will enter the top 200 if he defeats #154 Ruben Bemelmans tomorrow.

 

[herios]

Some interesting NextGen news...Denis Shapovalov defeated fellow Canadian Felix Auger Aliassime in the SF of Drummondville Challenger. FAA had just defeated Alex De Minaur in the previous round. He is also coming off a Futures win (Sherbrooke) and is now ranked #374 in the live rankings...seems like he's starting to move up a bit. A top 200 finish for the 16-year old this year would be terrific.

Shapovalov has stalled a bit, but will enter the top 200 if he defeats #154 Ruben Bemelmans tomorrow.

Shapo won yesterday and he indeed broke into the top 200, being now ranked 194.

 

[El Dude]

Yeah, I saw that. Good to see. I'm hoping he reaches the top 100 this year. Might be a stretch, though.

 

[herios]

Yeah, I saw that. Good to see. I'm hoping he reaches the top 100 this year. Might be a stretch, though.

I doubt that will happen.

 

[El Dude]

Mikael Ymer, the younger and (allegedly) more talented of the Ymer brothers, lost to Robin Haase, but put up a good fight: 7-5, 7-6 (3). I think he's going to start attracting attention.

 

[mrzz]

Yeah, I saw that. Good to see. I'm hoping he reaches the top 100 this year. Might be a stretch, though.

I doubt that will happen.

Just to prove you wrong (or to start the long process in order to do so), he beat fellow Canadian Pospisil. Now at #179 in the live rankings.

Since I heard about his outburst in DC, I root for him.

 

[El Dude]

The top 100 is definitely possibly by year's end for Shapovalov. Consider that the current #100 in the live rankings has 580 points; Shapovalov, at #179, has 301. That means that he needs to out-perform his own year last year by about +300 points...certainly do-able.

 

[El Dude]

I just watched the highlights of the Tiafoe-Federer match and I must say, I'm rather impressed with the young American - far more so than when I first saw him play a couple years ago. His serve seems a bit smoother and he's got some variation, a tremendous forehand, and lots of heart. He's probably moved up ahead of Fritz as the most promising young American, in my opinion.

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

Yes, Tiafoe has a good FH, BH seems reliable at the least. Service is good. Lots of power. Aggressive intent is there. I have actually liked his game over Fritz or any other youngster, I mean the brand of tennis.

 

[mrzz]

I am sure El Dude gonna love this... Amine Ahouda from Morocco, 19 years old and #946 in the world, uses his WC to beat good ol´ Marcel Granollers in Marrakesh.

 

[El Dude]

Nice. Always like to see young guys beat old farts (except when I'm the old fart).

 

[mrzz]

^where in different sides of the fence here... I actually -- at least in general -- kind of root against the young guys. But I always root for guys coming from countries with less structure, as I know how it is.

 

[El Dude]

Yeah, I hear you. I liked seeing that Tommy Haas beat Reilly Opelka and definitely root for the geriatrics on tour, but I'm tired of the hegemony of the current elite and am anxious for a change.

 

[Fiero425]

Yeah, I hear you. I liked seeing that Tommy Haas beat Reilly Opelka and definitely root for the geriatrics on tour, but I'm tired of the hegemony of the current elite and am anxious for a change.

Who you tellin'? - uzzled :nono :cover :snicker - - - - "Nole to Captain DC Team even if he wins USO" :clap :clap :clap - -

 

[Shivashish Sarkar]

Yeah, I hear you. I liked seeing that Tommy Haas beat Reilly Opelka and definitely root for the geriatrics on tour, but I'm tired of the hegemony of the current elite and am anxious for a change.

Who you tellin'? - uzzled :nono :cover :snicker - - - - "Nole to Captain DC Team even if he wins USO" :clap :clap :clap - -

If Nole wins USO, that will be a good comeback.

 

[herios]

I am very intrigued by Ernesto Escobedo, who comes through the rankings as gangbusters:
Ranking history:
Jan. 2015 (18y) - 538
Jan. 2016 (19y) - 393
Jan. 2016 (20y) - 141
Current - 91.
Now he will move up more, following his performance in Houston, where he achieved his first SF appearance in a main ATP event.
And he did all this under the radar, because nobody really talked about him, unlike: Tiafoe, Fritz.

 

[El Dude]

Well, I've mentioned him several times before and in some of my blogs. But yeah, he is intriguing. Probably not a future elite, but could be a solid top 20 player with dips into the top 10.

 

[herios]

Well, I've mentioned him several times before and in some of my blogs. But yeah, he is intriguing. Probably not a future elite, but could be a solid top 20 player with dips into the top 10.

Yes, you have mentioned his name in the recent months, but I was referring to the media. he got very little exposure in comparison to other American players.