Young Guns Discussion

[El Dude]

Kieran, another factor is that there was a big talent gap between Sampras (b. 1971) and Federer (b. 1981).

Let's take a look at all players with 5+ major titles--including Pro, Amateur, and Open Era Slams--going back to William Renshaw, who could be considered the first all-time great player. Here they are listed by year of birth, with the year of their first Slam and their age at the time in parentheses.

1861: William Renshaw (1881, 20)
1861: Richard Sears (1881, 19)
1872: William Larned (1901, 28)
1872: Reggie Doherty (1897, 24)
1875: Laurence Doherty (1902, 26)
1883: Tony Wilding (1906, 22)
1893: Bill Tilden (1920, 27)
1901: Henri Cochet (1926, 25)
1904: Rene Lacoste (1925, 20)
1908: Jack Crawford (1931, 22)
1909: Fred Perry (1933, 24)
1910: Hans Nusslein (1933, 23)
1911: Ellsworth Vines (1931, 19)
1915: Don Budge (1937, 22)
1918: Bobby Riggs (1939, 21)
1921: Jack Kramer (1946, 25)
1927: Frank Sedgman (1949, 21)
1928: Pancho Gonzales (1948, 20)
1930: Tony Trabert (1953, 22)
1934: Ken Rosewall (1953, 18)
1934: Lew Hoad (1956, 21)
1936: Roy Emerson (1961, 24)
1938: Rod Laver (1961, 22)
1944: John Newcombe (1967, 23)
1952: Jimmy Connors (1974, 21)
1956: Bjorn Borg (1974, 18)
1959: John McEnroe (1979, 20)
1960: Ivan Lendl (1984, 24)
1964: Mats Wilander (1982, 17)
1966: Stefan Edberg (1985, 19)
1967: Boris Becker (1985, 17)
1970: Andre Agassi (1992, 22)
1971: Pete Sampras (1990, 19)
1981: Roger Federer (2003, 21)
1986: Rafael Nadal (2005, 19)
1987: Novak Djokovic (2008, 20)

I think that list shows us two things: One, teenage Slam winners are not totally unheard of but very rare in tennis history. I don't know about players with less than 5 Slams, but the only two 5+ Slam winners who won their first as teenagers before Borg were Rosewall and Vines. Two, as we know there was a cluster of them in the 80s-90s, unlike any we have seen in tennis history.

But in the long view of tennis history, Rafa's Roland Garros title in 2005 doesn't look that out of place in terms of its rarity. What is out of place is that cluster of teenagers in the 80s-90s (and this list doesn't include Chang). It was "only" 15 years since the last teenage Slam title, whereas before Borg in 1974 you have to go back 21 years to Rosewall in 1953, and before that you have to go back 22 years to Vines in 1931. Richard Sears is the first teenage Slam winner that I could find, 50 years before Vines, but it is hard to compare those early years to now.

Maybe we've just returned to the historical norms, which are a teenage Slam winner about every couple decades.

 

[GameSetAndMath]

Borg was 18 when he won his first slam.

 

[herios]

I was checking on the challenger tour results this past week end and wanted to see if Tiafoe can finally win his first title. he was downed in a tight one by fellow American Escobedo (20y) ranked about 100 places lower.
He is inching up in the rankings, at #149, but he does not have the winning capability like Fritz had, who was able to win a few challengers already at that age.

 

[the AntiPusher]

Very good discussions about the young gun.. Take a look at the OLD GUN, John McEnroe..

http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/news/john-mcenroe-first-pitch-mets-yankees-video/1ezhi3fwzbxaq1uo24b9m0komk

 

[herios]

A good win by Shapo at Grimby over Luke Saville 7-6, 7-6.
Saville is ranked 197 and he was himself a junior boys winner at Wimbledon 5 years ago. He just did not live up to expectations later on.

 

[delPoFearhand]

Frances Tiafoe just had his first Challenger tour title win in Granby, which is a step in the right direction.

Also FWIW from a podcast report, when Alex Zverev was asked at the Citi Open who of the developing Americans he saw potential in (other than Fritz) he mentioned Tiafoe specifically.

Bottom line I am optimistic about Tiafoe's future. I think he's on his way up and his ceiling is very high.

 

[herios]

Frances Tiafoe just had his first Challenger tour title win in Granby, which is a step in the right direction.

Also FWIW from a podcast report, when Alex Zverev was asked at the Citi Open who of the developing Americans he saw potential in (other than Fritz) he mentioned Tiafoe specifically.

Bottom line I am optimistic about Tiafoe's future. I think he's on his way up and his ceiling is very high.

He needs a good coach though, because technically he is not that great. Athleticism, yes, technique, needs a lot of work.

 

[delPoFearhand]

Frances Tiafoe just had his first Challenger tour title win in Granby, which is a step in the right direction.

Also FWIW from a podcast report, when Alex Zverev was asked at the Citi Open who of the developing Americans he saw potential in (other than Fritz) he mentioned Tiafoe specifically.

Bottom line I am optimistic about Tiafoe's future. I think he's on his way up and his ceiling is very high.

He needs a good coach though, because technically he is not that great. Athleticism, yes, technique, needs a lot of work.

ATP & Wikipedia lists José Higueras as his coach, but I'm not sure that means they have a lot of one-on-one time since he is also the director of coaching for the USTA. Anyone know if he is working with someone else too?

 

[El Dude]

Tiafoe's currently #100 in the Race to London rankings, and thus has a good chance of being in the year-end top 100 at the age of 18. The last American teenagers to rank in the year-end top 100 are, gulp, Ryan Harrison and Donald Young - not exactly players you want to be compared to.

But it is exciting to think that there could be two American teenagers in the top 100, Tiafoe and Fritz. Jared Donaldson's almost 20 but he isn't far behind, and then you have Stefan Kozlov sneaking up. Kozlov is a very intriguing player who I would put up there in the same category as Tiafoe and Fritz in terms of future potential.

 

[isabelle]

Rafa had to deal with injuries in 2004 and so your analogy is totally off. Borna is no Nadal.

Rafa was already considered a contender for 2004 RG, but unfortunately did not get to play there due to injuries. Also, it affected him for a considerable portion of 2004 and his stagnation was due to that and not due to pure performance issues like Borna.

it's the second time Coric beats Nadal if my memory is good...a bad match up for Manacor's bull ? or maybe a coincidence ??

 

[Riotbeard]

Rafa had to deal with injuries in 2004 and so your analogy is totally off. Borna is no Nadal.

Rafa was already considered a contender for 2004 RG, but unfortunately did not get to play there due to injuries. Also, it affected him for a considerable portion of 2004 and his stagnation was due to that and not due to pure performance issues like Borna.

it's the second time Coric beats Nadal if my memory is good...a bad match up for Manacor's bull ? or maybe a coincidence ??

Yes Coric beat him 2 (?) years ago in Basel to make a run to semis. Hard to say if it's really a match up issue. Nadal was certainly not at his best in either match. On the other hand, it's nice to see Coric doing something at a tournament.

 

[Carol]

Coric beat Nadal a few days before his appendicitis surgery and this time when he was completely burnt out. And yep, it was a coincidence but yesterday Rafa anyway would have lost to anyone

 

[delPoFearhand]

Interesting matchup today in the first round at Winston-Salem: Fritz vs. Tiafoe. Fritz is obviously more accomplished thus far but I'm hoping Tiafoe does well here. He could use the confidence boost.

From the ATP website preview:

Teenagers Meet Again: Junior rivals and #NextGen American teenagers Taylor Fritz and Frances Tiafoe square off for the second time as pros after meeting five times in juniors (three in singles, two in doubles). Fritz is looking for his first win. In March, Tiafoe edged Fritz in three sets in the first round in Indian Wells. The 18-year-old rising stars booked a practice court together for Saturday morning but when the draw was released on Friday evening, plans changed. Both players have made huge jumps in the Emirates ATP Rankings from a year ago. Fritz, who has climbed from No. 678 at this time last year to a career-high No. 54, is making his Winston-Salem debut. Tiafoe, who was No. 275 at this time last year, is ranked a career-high No. 123. He won his first career ATP World Tour main draw match here last year (d. Duckworth).

 

[delPoFearhand]

Well, Fritz made pretty quick work of Tiafoe. Next up for Fritz is Verdasco- hopefully he can keep up his form from today.

 

[El Dude]

Tiafoe has such a weird serving action - it is so jerky, at least it was earlier in the year when he almost beat David Goffin.

 

[delPoFearhand]

Tiafoe has such a weird serving action - it is so jerky, at least it was earlier in the year when he almost beat David Goffin.

Right now the serve is nowhere near as bad as his jerky forehand motion. On the coverage today Brad Gilbert had them play back a few slow motion forehands and talked about how much it needed work to remove the excess movements.

 

[herios]

Tiafoe has such a weird serving action - it is so jerky, at least it was earlier in the year when he almost beat David Goffin.

Right now the serve is nowhere near as bad as his jerky forehand motion. On the coverage today Brad Gilbert had them play back a few slow motion forehands and talked about how much it needed work to remove the excess movements.

And these technical flaws of his are making me reluctant to buy into his stock.

 

[10isfan]

All of Tiafoe's horrible mechanics makes me believe he can't be a top player despite his athleticism. Technical flaws are tough to address after the age of 12. At his age, I think nearly impossible. This is the problem with not identifying talent at a young age. Kids play with home -grown strokes for too long. He won't be consistent, especially under pressure situations.

 

[El Dude]

Someone has to be the next era of second tier player. Five years from now maybe Zverev, Thiem, Kyrgios, Fritz and Shapovalov are top 5 in some order, and Tiafoe, Coric, Rublev, Kozlov and Pouille fill out the rest of the top 10.

Or something like that.

 

[herios]

Someone has to be the next era of second tier player. Five years from now maybe Zverev, Thiem, Kyrgios, Fritz and Shapovalov are top 5 in some order, and Tiafoe, Coric, Rublev, Kozlov and Pouille fill out the rest of the top 10.

Or something like that.

Or some of those listed will be the top 30-50