Oh man, I know EXACTLY what will happen with this match, and how everyone will react to it. Here goes....
Federer will win the first set 6-3, coming out very aggressive and executing. He will hit a bunch of winners and dictate play for the most part.
In the second set, Federer will keep up his good play and appear to be "in control" to those who understand neither Federer nor Nadal. Nadal will serve first and play two quality service games to open the second set. But at 2-2, Federer will have two break points at 15-40. All of the Federer fans in the O2 will be screaming "Come on Roger!!!!!", feeling that victory is just 15 minutes away with how supposedly awesome Federer is "playing right now".
But at 2-2 15-40, Nadal will serve to Fed's backhand. Fed's return will be very solid and the two will get into a 20-shot rally. Over the course of the rally, Federer will go with the intelligent, "patiently aggressive" approach advocated by the likes of Annacone and BrokenShoelace in these moments. Federer will hit 4 to 6 massive crosscourt forehands, all of which Nadal will absorb and get back fairly deep. Before virtually every one of these shots, it will be apparent that the forehand down-the-line is there for the taking and would guarantee at least a straightforward put-away volley. But no, Fed will stand there blasting CC forehands for half the rally, because, you know, all sensible tennis minds understand that it is just the "high percentage play". Finally, Nadal will get somewhat of an upper hand in the rally with a forehand up the line after Fed's CC backhand lands somewhat short, drawing a FH error from Federer.
At 30-40, Nadal will hit a very good kick-serve out wide, drawing a short reply, after which he hits just his 4th forehand winner of the match, 1 hour and 10 minutes in. This shot makes huntingyou, Broken, etc. think to themselves "best forehand in the game right there, been waiting to see that".
But then, at deuce, would you believe it? Fed gets angry and hits a great return off of the first serve. Nadal gets a weak backhand back, very short, and Federer steps in for the easy CC forehand winner.
And here we go again. Back to advantage Federer. This time Federer is determined to make sure he converts the break point. This time he goes for ending the point a little bit quicker. He hits an excellent crosscourt forehand, drawing a fairly short reply in the middle of the court from Nadal. Federer then elects to step up and be "super-aggressive" with another CC forehand. This time, the shot lands 2 millimeters wide. After a Federer challenge, the call on the court is confirmed, and we are back to deuce, with Federer being 0-3 on breakpoints in this game. Broken and others are now saying "see, when you go for that type of super-aggressive shot, you run the risk of unforced errors".
Now back to deuce, we are right where Nadal wants it, and Kieran is thinking "the bull now has control of this thing, he wants it and nothing is going to stop him". The bull analogy makes sense in terms of winning mentality, but it is backed up with a rather dull and lame shotmaking display for such a supposedly transcendent player. At deuce, Nadal hits a body serve into Federer, drawing a forehand error. And then at AD, Nadal hits an ace up the T (just his second ace of the match), to make the score 3-2 after saving the three break points. Cali thinks "opportunism" - which, you know, just makes no sense.
But, Federer isn't a champion for just any reason. He resolves to come back with a strong service game, and does just that. At 40-30, he hits an ace, to even up the score at 3-3. After two more relatively straightforward service games, it is now 4-4 in the second set. At 30-15, Nadal's second serve is surprisingly punished by Federer for his 17th forehand winner of the match thus far. Now at 30-30, things are getting a little bit interesting and the crowd is starting to get edgy, on both sides. At 30-30, Nadal plays an uncharacteristically shaky point, hitting a forehand wide up the line, giving Federer a break point.
Now, at 30-40, Federer has a real chance to seize the match. Federer's second serve goes to the Federer forehand, which he of course hits deep to Nadal's backhand. Nadal does a good job of getting his own backhand back into play, crosscourt, making Federer a hit a forehand on the run, which he does. Federer's running forehand down-the-line is retrieved by Nadal. Nadal hits a decent running forehand crosscourt himself, but Fed tracks it down easily with a backhand up the middle of the court. Nadal then follows with one of those awesome "rally shots", a loopy forehand to Fed's backhand wing. And this is where things get interesting. Fed chooses to run around the backhand and hit a semi-powerful inside-out forehand (with Broken thinking, "here is Cali getting his wish"). Being that the shot was ill-timed and too weak, Nadal OPPORTUNISTICALLY (yes, opportunistically) moves to his left and sets up a powerful forehand down-the-line. The shot isn't a winner (Nadal only has 7 of so far, you see), but Federer can only get a racquet on it and hits a wild error with the forehand.
And now, we are back to deuce. Nadal surprises Federer with a serve out wide to his forehand, which Federer dumps in to the net. Ad Nadal. Then Nadal goes with the bread-and-butter tactic, hitting a kicker to Fed's backhand. Fed gets a weak return in short, and Nadal steps in for a punishing cross-court forehand winner to win the game, making Kieran ask "who can beat this guy when he raises his level?" and also making huntingyou think, impassionately, "what a manly way to hit the best shot in the game!"
Okay, so now we are at 5-4. Do I need to spell this out? Federer is flustered, hits a bunch of errors, makes only one first serve in the game. Nadal hits his 9th forehand winner at 15-30 to make it 15-40 (opportunism again). Fed hits an ace to make it 30-40, but at 30-40, he hits a forehand into the net just 6 shots into the rally. Set Nadal. 6-4.
Then, early in the 3rd set, Nadal gets a break at 1-1 to go up 2-1. At this point, Federer is completely out of it mentally and everyone knows what will happen the rest of the way. Nadal holds to make it 3-1. At 1-3, Federer barely holds after the game goes to deuce, but does stay in the match. Nadal then holds serve himself, to make the score 4-2. After falling behind 0-30 on his own serve in the ensuing game, Federer gets angry and starts playing Cali style, going for broke with forehands down the line mixed in with forehands cross court. He wows the crowd to make the match 4-3 with four scintillating winners.
At 4-3 in the third, the game gets to deuce after 3 Federer winners, two Federer errors, and one unthinkably amazing Nadal "rally forehand" to draw an error. At this point, the game stays at deuce for a couple minutes, with the points alternating between Federer winners and Federer errors. After failing to convert two more break points, Federer loses the game 5-3, prompting Broken to think "see, that's for Cali. Federer can't just go for winners every time and win the game".
Down 3-5 after being just 2 for 16 on break points for the match, Federer is utterly deflated. He hits a forehand error, then makes it 15-15 with a surprise backhand winner, only to fall down 15-40 after a forehand into the net and a backhand wide up the line. At 15-40, Federer hits a weak second serve that Nadal attacks, prompting all of Nadal's fans to think "how can Cali say he isn't offensive?" Federer gets a short reply back with a backhand slice. Nadal moves in and hits a forehand up the line for the winner.
3-6, 6-4, 6-3 Nadal.
Nadal finishes with 16 winners to just 14 unforced errors. Federer finishes with 38 winners and 41 unforced errors. Nadal's first-serve percentage for the match is 74.
Afterwards, on the Tennis Frontier boards, everything begins with nehmeth congratulating Nadal fans for another "great victory" - in the same vein as PSU football fans congratulating Michigan for a decade on beating them every year from 1996 to 2006 (nehmeth will understand the reference). Kieran remarks that "there is no stopping Ralph when he puts his mind to something". Cali points out that Federer hit 38 winners to Nadal's 16, infuriating huntingyou and prompting huntingyou to refer to "the troll". Huntingyou is feeling brash about those 16 winners and that W (comically, I must say - sort of like Steeler fans being cocky about their WR corps), and comments that "It's now time for Nadal to add this last piece of hardware to his trophy case and just take it to Novak". Broken dismissively retorts to Cali's suggestion that Fed didn't play the breakpoints as well as he could have, saying that Cali's aggressive strategy is too "low percentage" for Federer - you know, the guy whose sensible, "patiently aggressive" strategy results in factually "low percentage" break point conversions (and regular failure in crucial rallies against Nadal) match after match.
And everything wraps up with DarthFed commenting that Federer had another chance this season to finally beat a "good player", but he choked because he is old and slow now. Darth also remarks that 10-22 is no rivalry where he is from and says that he can't ever see Federer beating Nadal again, "as terrible as he is playing". El Dude then comments that, statistically speaking, Federer is certainly past his prime and wonders if he can ever re-gain "near-elite status".
Anyone seen that script unfold before?
